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Friday, August 01, 2008

Saratoga Notes

- Pletcher has put some wins together, as Luck Money takes the 8th at Saratoga on Friday; the Toddster now has three winners and a second in his last five starters, and a record of 18-5-3-1 overall. In the first on Saturday, he moves Hall of Famer (9-2) up in class and stretches him out. Blinkers and a drop in class did the track in his latest; Johnny V stalked a quick pace confidently on the outside and drew away in the stretch. Velazquez actually goes elsewhere here, opting for Bright Illusion and Allen Jerkens. There, he replaces Garcia, who wrangled this one back off a lethargic pace, and had no shot in a 22 3/5 final quarter in his last. Problem I see is that he has a lousy post, whereas he's been blessed with good post position fortune of late. So I'll try Pletcher's colt, with the Mig on board from the rail. He should handle two turns fine; he's a son of Grand Slam, out of a Palace Music mare, and he's a half brother to two distance stakes winners, Gold From the West and Fifth Overture.

On Board Again returns off a 46 month layoff for Frankel, 31% with 180+ returnees. We last saw this now five-year old son of Awesome Again in the 2006 Discovery, in which he ran second at 4-5. Funny, the half-length winner of that race, Roman Dynasty, for Pletcher, wasn't seen again until Dec, 2007 (for Ken McPeek), and he hasn't been seen again since. Weird, eh? I mean, these were three year olds at the time. Third place finisher Valid Notebook was last seen racking up triple digit Beyers in 25K claimers in July 07, 4th place finisher Master of Disaster has been just that, not winning in nine starts since that race; and last place runner Indian Hawke is in this race too, but has been in sluggish form. It's like someone cast an evil spell over that race.

So we have to bet against On Board Again (2-1), right? Actually, I'm So Lucky is the ML favorite at 8-5, moving up off a freakish performance at Churchill for John Ward, apparently in semi-retirement mode with just 26 starters this year. This is a son of Langfuhr, out of an AP Indy half-sister to the Kinsman stallion Concerto. Maybe leave Frankel's horse out of the exacta and look for a price?

Don't know if I'm buying this thing about Indian Blessing(1-2) now being able to rate. The Prioress was her first race cutting back in distance to a sprint, and she was simply run off her feet early by a very quick filly in Secret Gypsy. Looked to me as if she wanted the lead, but Johnny V had her three wide for the entire sweep of the enormous Belmont turn, and she just didn't get there until they turned for home. So I think she'll be out and winging here, and perhaps she'll find Sweet Hope (5-2) there inside of her. This daughter of Lemon Drop Kid, out of a High Heeled Hope, a stakes winning daughter of Salt Lake, changed tactics in her first start for Larry Jones, a dominant front-running stakes win at Delaware in which she earned a 108 Beyer. Test for class here against Baffert's classy champion. I'd think that if she prevails here, then she still has a shot at the 3 yo championship with a win against older in the F&M Sprint, depending on what Proud Spell and Music Note do in the Alabama, and what they do if and when they run in the Distaff.

4 Comments:

Anonymous said...

Agree Indian Blessing does not want to rate but it will not matter here.

The competion has only one Graded victory among them, a G3 by Palanka City in the mud over four opponents on Preakness undercard.

Ms. Margaret H is the lone closer and may pick up the pieces for the place at long odds after IB puts away all the other speed.

6-4-2.

Mr. Ed

National Pride is a very interesting returnee in the ninth, a private purchase by Godolphin after a big fig debut winner for Contessa in a big MSW field over the decent Saratoga Russell and MINT LANE, he presumably vacationed with the camels and returns her for Suroor with Garcia.

He may be an overlay at around 3-1if the weekend Spa crowd jumps on the big figure winner Posse Cat and the KISS horse from Zito/JV.

Even if he is 8-5 there is apparently no shame touting those types in the space lately :).

Anonymous said...

Del Mar just cut purses, let's see how long the trainers stick up for the carpet fiber and wax now that it effects their pocketbooks.

alan said...

>>Even if he is 8-5 there is apparently no shame touting those types in the space lately :).

Well, a winner's a winner....but ha, I picked against this favorite today! :)

alan said...

>>Del Mar just cut purses, let's see how long the trainers stick up for the carpet fiber and wax now that it effects their pocketbooks.

They're blaming TVG. It's all Todd Schrupp's fault.