Belmont Saturday (Mostly Inessential)

When I first went through the 8th, I put a big circle around So It Goes. He obviously relishes these shorter distances (though I think he may prefer 1 1/16), and it's third off the layoff for Donk, just three for 36 for the meet, but two seconds on Friday, including Strike the Bell, who couldn't quite last, at 8-1, in the overnight stakes. But after watching the replay of his last race, I'm a little less enthusiastic. He never looked a winner, lagging far behind while saving ground on the turn before finding a handy seam and finishing well. Nothing wrong with the effort, just looked less inspiring than on paper.

We were at the Francis Bacon exhibit at the Met last week, and I noted a quote from the artist to the effect that nine-tenths of everything is inessential. And I've often wondered on this blog how much of all the incredible handicapping resources currently easily available online is really essential to the job. It's not that it's a bad idea to watch a replay of a race, or look up detailed trainer stats in Formulator. But this being such an inexact science - indeed, one with a high degree of randomness - that any bit of mind-changing information could, perhaps, be just as likely to lead one astray as not. Since the paper Racing Form has always served us well - and even more so now than 20 years ago to be sure - maybe it's the case that once you formulate a strong opinion based on what's in the Form, you're better off not probing any further? I mean, it's going to either reinforce your opinion, or talk you off the horse, and does anyone know how that turns out in the long run?

I digress, sorry. OK, I'm not completely off So It Goes, but now I'm going deeper. North Country (12-1) comes off a layoff first time for David Duggan; he has the best grass Beyers in the field. He's one of those state-breds looking for a level after running out of his restricted conditions; but he raced well at this level on a 'good' turf at Aqueduct last November. Duggan sports an 0 for 12 in the 180+ category; but has two good seconds in stakes races with returnees Porte Bonheur and Stud Muffin; capable barn attracts Ramon here. Parc des Princes (10-1) led in the stretch before fading to 4th in his return to Belmont. He's reunited with Castellano, who rode him in two good front-running, though non-winning, efforts here last year. I'd actually prefer to see him ridden the way he was by Flores at Santa Anita two back; in any event, seems an overlay at those odds. Big Top (6-1) is my preference amongst the five that met on May 20; three wide around the turn in his turf debut, could be closer second time on the surface and a better trip.

OK, it's after noon, so no on is gonna read this one time anyway....so just quickly, in the 7th, Piazza di Spagna (4-1) goes second off the layoff for Sciacca. This barn is just 1 for 43 at the meeting. But the horse usually makes a run, as he did finishing second in his return. The winner, Straight Story, then ran second by a head in the G2 Colonial Turf Cup. So, do you play the trainer angle and throw him out? Or the key race angle and single him? I dunno, you tell me.

In the 10th, Separatist is the 2-1 morning line choice for the red-hot Tagg, five for his last 11, with two seconds. But this horse is been beat in his last three at 9-5, 2-5, and 4-5, so beware. Saratoga Steve (5-1) returns to seven furlongs on the grass; seems the distance is definitely for him based on his rally for a close third. However, this is another whose race wasn't as impressive to me visually, and his trainer is 0 for 24 here. Do you go with the fundamentals in the Form, or with the trainer stats and replay? Why are you asking me? I'm off to the track, have a great day.