In the first, Ricoriatoa (3-1) cuts back to a sprint for trainer Dominic Galluscio, who plucked down 60K for this one two races back. This gelded son of Smarty Jones is two for two going one turn on fast dirt, and has earned his two best speed figures in those races. His debut for this barn, coming off a two months freshening, was his first two-turn effort; he opened up on the final turn before fading to 4th, and the turnback should definitely help here. Galluscio recently had an 0 for 16 slump, but was in the money on nine occasions during that time. He was a 21% guy last year, and, as we've seen, these things even out over time. The barn broke through with Stratton's Girl ($12.40) on Saturday, and won with Ave of the Pines ($5.10) yesterday. He's 26% second off the layoff, and here he attempts to repeat a winning pattern off a very similar sequence under the prior connections last fall. I'm a bit concerned that he wants a bit more than six furlongs; but if he runs back to that 89 Beyer at seven second off that layoff in November, he should be tough here. Came East (5-2) goes for the unconscious Pletcher, also cuts back and is also unbeaten in shorter races (one on Poly). I think he's facing slightly better here, but biggest knock really is that he'll likely be overbet; one to beat.
- The Jets are not in the Superbowl as you might have noticed; but not every member of my household is broken up about that. The Head Chef has a culinary tip for the big game on her Grapes and Greens blog.
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Friday, February 05, 2010
Aqueduct Friday
Posted by Alan Mann at 7:35 AM
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I nailed the longshot in last Friday's first (strictly an odds play against a weak chalk) but didn't post. So now I'll post and probably tout a loser. Here goes:
Ricoriatoa does look strong here. On his Sheet, he's got two probably winning numbers at these conditions, and he ran it last the second race off a brief layoff, just like today. Good stalk/pounce position looks likely.
BUT, that was for Lobo and in my Formulator search, Galluscio has fared poorly in the next two races with horses he claimed and then put in allowance company. They do better when back in for a tag. Also the horse hasn't had a workout in 4 weeks, and you probably won't get more than the 3-1 ML. So, I'm certainly going to use him (unless he looks bad in the post parade), but probably look for a value key elsewhere.
The value could come, as you note, from overbetting Pletcher. I don't like the horse's pattern of a big first-out figure, a worse figure, and then a disaster. He'll run better fresh, but he hasn't had enough time off yet. His big # was on poly, and he debuted in a claimer, not a sign of Pletcher confidence.
The horse with slightly the best Sheet # is Charlott Humor (mdn win), but at a low price, I'm not betting that he runs that number again so soon off his return race, even for your buddy Brown. I see the owner is Robsham, a new Brown client? Why ship the horse to FL, get 3rd money once, then return? He's disappointed in the colt and may get disappointed again today.
If the ML holds us, I'll play Dubai Rainbow. He ran well at 2, didn't progress at 3, but when put on dirt, came back to his 2 YO top and has surpassed it by a little. He may not be fast enough if Ricoriatoa runs his A race, but I think he's the likeliest in the field to improve.
Another longshot with some decent numbers for exotic hookups is No Questions. Now I've fully jinxed my horses, so tossing them is probably the correct play.
8 MTP - 8/5 on my horse, 7/2 on yours....so much for value!! Maybe we should bet Pletcher at these odds!
Oh well, tote looks sensible, no value here, no play.
Actually, Autumnlady in race 2 is value to me, playing small 6-3 DD.
Steve - Nice going! But don't make a habit out of upstaging me on my own blog! :-D
Only losers from now on, I promise.
Aarg. 3 wide impatient ride from Serpa. Autumnlady ran much better than Poovey and Quiet Mover, both with rail trips.
Gulfstream - Race 7
#8 Simply Carina (12/1 ml)
This first-time starter for Paulo Lobo is out of the former turf star Astra, who won multiple Grade 1's on grass while compiling an 11-for-16 lifetime record. That's not worth a play on it's own, but it does seem to indicate that this filly may enjoy the grass (especially with El Prado on the top side as well). The main positive however is that Simply Carina is coming out of three consecutive heads-up drills (including one on grass) with barnmate Sao Sebah, who came out of those drills to miss by just a nose (at odds of 15/1) in a $30k turf claimer for older males last Sunday. Think we may have a live one here.
Not sure where all the money came from; I certainly wasn't expecting that. As for the horse, she ran out. She was impeded in the stretch while launching her bid, but I'm not sure it made any difference.
Discreet, follow her for next time at big odds, these turf meant horses usually need one.
Putting on my watch list.
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