Take The Long View

Hope everyone had a nice holiday weekend. One more day in cool but abundantly sunny Florida (Gulf coast; no Gulfstream, too far from Tampa), and then I'll be home and back to my usual blabbering. I actually did get to look at Sunday and Monday's Aqueduct cards in a fair amount of detail. Just nothing stood out for me to give out any losers, not even close, really.

My initial thought when I learned that Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta would, if all goes well, indeed meet in the rescheduled Apple Blossom on April 9, was that it was typical of this industry that the long anticipated matchup would occur on a Friday afternoon. But, on second thought, it probably doesn't really matter; and with a little thought, ingenuity, and long-term thinking, perhaps the industry can use it to advantage.

For one thing of course, the next thing I read about a network actually picking the race up for telecast will be the first. If the race is limited to the racing channels and simulcast outlets, it obviously won't matter when it's run. But the sad fact is that, even if the race was to be run on Saturday, not a whole lot of people other than the usual suspects would tune in anyway. I'm afraid that, unlike us, the nation is not waiting with baited breath to see these two fillies meet. Most people don't even know who they are.

Marketing demands a longer term view, and I'm afraid that it seems a proven fact that beating people over the head, telling them how great the sport is and how fantastic a particular race is going to be just does not work for races not named the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, or Belmont. With that in mind, I hope that the NTRA and the industry does not do what I suspect they surely will (since thought, ingenuity, and the long-term view is not part of their package). (And I'm assuming, for this discussion, that the race is televised, probably on one of ESPN or NBC's minor outlets, like ESPN Classic or the hideous Bravo.)

What we'll probably see is Oaklawn run the race as late in the day as possible - the final race, when the card is not canceled, generally goes off at around 5:30 local time, which would put it in the faux prime-time of 6:30 back east. That will be accompanied by a full-out advertising effort for the "race for the ages," and some insufferable shill like Tessitore screaming about oh my, how fucking exciting this is.

I think that would be a mistake. There's a very good reason why politicians make announcements of things they don't want to be noticed on late Friday afternoons. (It doesn't always work.) I would instead go for the emphasis on the news cycle rather than the live event, which, seriously, nobody other than the already converted is really going to run home in time to watch anyway. Just forget about ratings and run the race early in the program and concentrate instead on having the race hit the evening news programs and the Saturday papers. Those of us who really want to see it will find a way. And, just maybe, seeing and hearing about this great matchup run on a Friday afternoon will give the matter a little aura and buzz, maybe even achieve viral status, and help build some anticipation for the races down the road.

Because this is not a "race for the ages." It's an early season matchup between two horses unlikely to be at their peak form and, in theory of course, the beginning of a series of races and a narrative leading up to the true climactic showdown at Churchill in November. It should be presented exactly that way. It's possible that a true rivalry between the two, complete with storylines, triumphs and setbacks, could help lift the sport out of the doldrums (or at least help it poke it's little snout above the waterline). But there is no rivalry as of yet; this race would only be the first step. If it's built up out of proportion, it may not achieve the desired results. Especially if Zenyatta kicks her butt. The public doesn't care about whiny excuses even if they're legitimate equine ones, and especially not from a whiny complainer like Jess Jackson. If this is the "race for the ages," how would you then promote the next one if this one doesn't live up to its billing?

- Governor Paterson is set to release the bid documents from the five Aqueduct bidders today (I guess Steve Wynn is off the hook), complete with redactions of items that the bidders consider confidential or proprietary. Who cares, I say; what I want to see is the Lottery Divison's evaluations of those bids, and where and how they ranked the winning bidder. Guess we'll have to wait for the Inspector General's report to see those.