I like Dialed In (2-1) in Sunday's Florida Derby. He was beaten by his stablemate Equestrio at the ungodly price of 1-5 in the Fountain of Youth allowance race written for him last month (thanks John, feeling better now after a good night's sleep!); and while the Closer Look comment in the Form calls it "a disappointing loss," I'd think that Nick Zito was pretty happy with what he saw. It was just a prep after all with no graded earnings at stake (Dialed In currently stands at #17 on the Derby list). He was closer to the pace than he had been in his first two career efforts, as Reprized Hero set sluggish fractions of nearly 25 seconds to the first quarter; 49.4 to the half. Dialed In picked it up around the final turn, but Equestrio, who had stalked the pace early, got the jump and was skipping away, maintaining what was a solid 24 and change pace throughout.
I thought this was a perfect prep for this son of the champion Mineshaft, out of a Storm Bird mare. Even with just five horses in the field, Dialed In found himself in and amongst a couple of others down the backstretch, never looking totally comfortable, but no doubt gaining experience with traffic for larger fields down the road. He changed leads smoothly after turning for home, and strode out strongly under only a couple of taps from Leparoux, who hand-rode him home through the final sixteenth. It was just his third career race, and first around two turns (as it was for Equestrio, who had the benefit of a couple of more races under his belt, and a tactical advantage in a slowly-run race).
Here, he figures to benefit from a contested pace. Soldat (9-5) has won his last two in game front-running fashion; To Honor And Serve (4-1) figures to be more aggressive against him early this time; Stay Thirsty (8-1) could be closer with blinkers on. But Flashpoint (6-1) is the real X factor. Breaking from the outside post in his first try beyond seven furlongs, this speedy son of Pomeroy could be out there and winging it to the first turn. Dialed In and Zito should mean business here; figures to move forward and could blow them away in the stretch.
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Saturday, April 02, 2011
Dialing Up For Derby
Posted by Alan Mann at 1:02 AM
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37 Comments:
Hey Alan He was beaten in an optional claimer not the FOY but that's OK I see you posted this at 1 AM. Get some sleep :-)
I believe To Honor and Serve will rebound here and be very tough, playing him with Dialed In although the speed bias is always a concern on this track there just has to be enough pace here to set up DI's late run, right?
That written, I think THAS will get a perfect trip and the first jump on DI.
This is the best "prep" so far, as a G1 should be. Good job by Stronarch moving this back to 5 weeks out and attaching the bonus.
On the fence here with what to do about Flashpoint, who was a top play for me last out.
Mom & dad were all sprint but he does hsve that one half-sib who won at 10 panels on turf. Dutrow has won with many of these stretchouts (and of course lost with many).
There would be no struggle at all if the price was low, but at 6-1, it is hard to jump off a horse this fast that looked that easy doing it for these connections.
At the low price, I'm not going to make excuses for Dialed In. It's not like his last race was off a layoff and I'm not sure why Zito wouldn't have wanted something more like his Holy Bull. True, the pace makes it hard to analyze the race, but...
He was free and in the clear coming off the turn but the winner drew off from him. He was gaining late but it looked like something happened to the winner, bearing out and stopping abruptly. Looks like Dialed in just bounced. He could come back to his good number now there are others in this field that could run even better.
Earnie Paragallo says:
stay on the fence steve as that's where you belong with your nonsense posts.
I expect Soldat to get the trip Figless describes for THAS. Now I know this is a reach, but I think Master of Hounds (5th in BC Juvie Turf)run in Dubai flatters Soldat. No fun I know picking the chalk but I think he might be the real deal.
Good to see John is still kickin' - though not blogging?
Anon - I apologize for sharing my thought process.
I should have realized that opinions without thoughts are more comfortable for you. Now go back to watching Fox.
Earnie, lol.
It's a tough race. I wonder what kind of price Stay Thirsty will offer. -jp
Sheets honchos are keying Stay Thirsty, but I don't think they'll drive the price down too much in this kind of race. I agree with the morning line maker here.
But Sheet pattern or no, I'm not keying him because if Pletcher thinks an established horse like that need blinkers, I'm worried. Pletcher's 0-13 with graded stakes horses getting blinks on; only 3 ITM.
I think I'm likely to balance my sofa on top of the fence on this one and just watch without betting, unless Flashpoint looks so good in the post parade that I can't resist.
Oh fuck. Guys I'm so sorry, I loved Queen Mariles today and my phone died while I was posting. By the time I got the computer they're at the finish now
We wouldn't have listened to you anyhow. -jp
Earnie Paragallo says:
What do you know about sheet honchos. Ya that is a good idea steve to not bet and dump your ass on the sofa.
Now go back to watching SPONGEBOB
Probably not jp, probably not. I even cancelled my $200 bet @ 7/2 and only bet $50.
Dirty
hey nice lingo anon 6:43 PM
There are more than guy's that read this blog. Bite your tongue boy.
Relax dickface, I was angry I couldn't give you a ten dollar horse. Lol. Fuck.
Dirty
Is that your handle you go by Dirty. Fits your style and filthy mouth just right eh. Stick your so called ten dollar horse where the sun don't shine boyyyyyyyyyy.
I'm sure the ladies don't approve of your nasty usage of the f bomb on an open blog as such. Nasty little boyyyyyy aren't you.
anon 8:40PM wow your an arrogant little sucker aren't you. Go to your nearest drugstore and purchase some of that sweet smelling liquid soap. Might take away that bad odor you have in your mouth.
"I'm sure the ladies don't approve of your nasty usage of the f bomb on an open blog as such. Nasty little boyyyyyy aren't you."
F bomb? Ok retard. You 12?
Keep up the good blog police work. The rest of us will be talking about horses (even fucking horses in the case of Zenyatta and Bernardini) and sharing handicapping info.
Dirtyshirt
To the anonymous guy who can't spell Ernie:
If you go to thesheets.com bulletin board, or read the Ragozin Insider column in Thoroughbred Times, you too can know what the Sheets honchos think.
What's up with all the mindless hostility?
Why do liberals downplay the Islamic abuses of women?
I dunno. To get even with conservatives for fighting against women's rights and racial justice in this country for hundreds of years?
Or maybe you're just repeating some wing-nut line that has no basis in fact. To the extent anyone in this country is standing up for human rights around the world, it usually is a liberal or radical.
I don't remember Bush or any conservatives demanding democracy or equality anywhere in the moslem world. They're too busy cutting deals to get rich on oil.
Steve doesn't know why liberals downplay the Islamic abuses of women.
Steve doesn't know why liberals downplay the Islamic abuses of women or gays.
Since when did Liberals downplay any of that? There might be a tiny percentage of far-left people who downplay it but those are fringe players anyhow, not to be taken seriously. Don't try to chracterize all Dems as feeling that way, tardass.
Now, I know I haven't given anybody many good picks lately, but I do think I had a horse hit the board in the past couple of months that I tabbed at LATG. While it's true the horse was 1-5, and he won a photo for show, there's no need to split hairs. As for today's Florida Derby, I think Pletcherjuice has a good shot with Stay Thirsty at a square price. -jp
steve big mouth it's spelled with an a after the e Mr. grammer teacher. So, sit back on your sofa and watch spongebob all day.
It's grammar.
Earnie Paragallo says:
For the bright guy from nc. I spell my name as you read it. You need to do as anon says and that is sit back on your sofa and click your remote to the spongebob channel. I'm sure it will keep you entertained a long with your homo friend Dirtyshirt who needs a good whup azz across his nasty tongue. Enjoy your day bright guy from nc.
yes anon 9:45 you are correct and I stand to be corrected. Nothing wrong with admitting one's mistake. I thank you
Oh, so you are EARNIE Paragallo, the guy who wanted to use disgraced owner Ernie Paragallo's name but spelled it wrong:
http://www.nydailynews.com/topics/Ernie+Paragallo
Earnie, don't you have anything better to do, like fighting for human rights of people you hate just to embarrass liberals? Or getting in an even worse mood by losing more money on horses?
This is mostly a racing blog, by the way, and you've contributed zilch in that area. Can Flashpoint stretch out? Will Dialed In recover his best form? If you're going to throw eggs, man up and post something real. I'd hate to think you've got nothing at all to contribute here.
Yawn
Quit fucking up Alan's blog with this childish back-and-forth stuff. -jp
hey jp how are you. Tell me, you ever suck a lemon early in the morning?
Alan, can you get rid of these guys (or probably just one guy)?
Congrats on Dialed In, but I wouldn't be hot on him in the Derby. I think the race kind of fell apart.
Flashpoint was overheated, didn't want to load and broke toward the outside. To Honor & Serve may need another 6 months to get back to his 2yo form. The longshot was the only other one that lifted a hoof. I think this race will get a mediocre fig. I don't think Pletcher's worried.
Alan can you get rid of this guy steve from nc. He is obnoxious to say the least.
Can we please get back on topic here?
Crazy day. First time me and Alan have ever been on the same horse and it won... And first time I've ever agreed with jp - get rid of the moron(s).
Dirty
I think we agreed on something once before, Dirty. I forget what but I'm pretty sure we liked the same horse or we both thought the same guy was a fucking idiot. My memory isn't what it used to be. -jp
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