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Tuesday, April 19, 2011

No Mo Appetite

Uncle Mo is at Churchill, and Pletcher said "I think he’s in the same position every horse in this race is in.” That would mean that there are a lot of horses that are sick to their stomachs.

"Obviously when you have a gastrointestinal tract infection, you’re appetite is not going to be as good as you’d like for it to be." [Courier Journal (or any other of like 100 other outlets who dutifully regurgitate the same quotes as everyone else]]
Am I missing something here? After a horse comes out of a race, how many times do you hear the trainer comment on how it "ate up" right afterward, a signal that the horse came out of the race good and is ready to proceed to its next target. This horse came out of his last race sick, and more than a week later, and just 19 days before the Derby (or 17 days if you're reading the Times Union), the trainer is telling us that his appetite isn't so good. Seriously, this horse is still under consideration for a grueling mile and a quarter race against 19 others who are presumably feeling, and eating, their oats? I just don't get it.

- The Associated Press composite Derby Top Ten has a top three of Dialed In, Mucho Macho Man, and Toby's Corner. Personally, if the odds were fair, I'd be more than willing to bet that none of those finishes in the money; and, in return for just a little sweetening, additionally that neither Mucho Macho Man nor Toby's Corner finish in the top ten. Though, other than the top two finishers in the Arkansas Derby, I might be hard pressed to tell you who I like instead. But I do have 17 or 19 days to decide.

12 Comments:

Anonymous said...

My opinion of the genesis of the " stomach story " is that it is a reaction to the consensus opinion that Uncle Mo looked dull and skinny prior to the Wood. Thus, they are pretending this is a result of a stomach problem.

Glad to see you not buying this story.

Anonymous said...

I will wager you right now that Toby's Corner finishes in the top 10. Contingent upon him being in the starting gate. Let's do this, Alan. -jp

SaratogaSpa said...

Instead of sending his people to Hawaii, Shouldn't Trump be sending his investigators to Kentucky to investigate the Mo story and than declare that this is possibly the biggest fraud in US History?

alan said...

Yeah jp, we can do that. Something we can settle on Belmont day, you gonna be there?

El Angelo said...

I will also take your bet on Mucho Macho Man not finishing in the top 10.

Anonymous said...

I suppose there's a possibility I'll be there. If there is a triple crown on the line, then yes fo' sho'. If not, it's a maybe. -jp

alan said...

Look, I'd be more than happy to bet a drink or something with you guys straight up for a fun bet. But beyond that, what's in it for me? If i wager that two of the top half dozen or so choices are going to run 11th or worse, shouldn't I get some value in return? :)

Wubert said...

I don't know how I feel about the Wood and Toby's Corner, when considering his race with Stay Thirsty and how Stay Thirsty has done, but what is your argument against Dialed In and Mucho Macho Man hitting the board? Pedigree, form, general ability, etc? Just curious!

Rob

DiscreetPicks said...

Reading between the lines, it doesn't sound like Uncle Mo is doing so hot right now. Assuming he runs (which is certainly no lock), i think he has to be considered a huge underdog in the race. I'll be looking to play against him in head-to-head matchups, as he still figures to be matched against some of the beter horses in the race. Good chance you can get plus money on matchups that have much better than a 50% chance of coming in.

alan said...

Wubert - I don't really dislike Dialed In, but I really do as the betting favorite as I expect him to be. So I'm being a bit of a wiseass, wouldn't say it if he was going to be 15-1. Having said that though, to me, he hasn't shown the same kind of kick at the end of his two turn races, certainly not the kind that I feel will carry him through the 10th furlong. Mucho Macho Man, don't like his breeding, think he'll be too mixed up in the early pace, don't believe he's followed through with any real improvement on his two-year old form, and his trainer is 2 for 47 on the year.

El Angelo said...

Yes. I'll go 2-1 odds: you owe me one beer if MMM finishes 10th or better; I owe you 2 if he's 11th or worse.

alan said...

OK El Ang, you're on.