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Thursday, April 28, 2011

Keeneland Friday

- In the 5th, Looks Purrfect (5-1) ships in from Fair Grounds for Steve Asmussen, 0 for 16 now on the meeting, with 3-2 Macias finishing 3rd in Thursday's 4th, discussed in the last post. Agastache went off 2-1 and was a tough luck loser to Pointing North.

Looks Purrfect would seem to have a significant class edge over the rest of these non-winners of two lifetime, with a decent resume of picking up some minor shares in allowance company; and even a close 4th in an overnight stakes. Four-year old son of Kitten's Joy always gives an honest effort no matter where he finishes. He got some needed class relief after a freshening, and responded with two competitive thirds at FG. In his last, on turf and therefore more relevant I believe with this race on the Poly, he was solidly 3-4 wide throughout the first turn, and hampered by a pace which was languid until the final quarter, when they sprinted home in 23.4. Despite that, Looks Purrfect rallied well through the stretch, and seemed to have second locked up, before he was passed late by the ground-saving Mustang Powder. Winning Crown of Aragorn stepped up to open 50K company and ran second (albeit with a moderate 63 Beyer. Good post here, and Asmussen steps this one up a bit with confidence. Main concern is the poor effort in his lone try on this surface; hopefully, explained by it being his first against winners, and the significant traffic problems which had him pinned on the rail towards the rear of the pack. Been working slowly but steadily over the Poly, and I think his class edge, even with the jump in class, is clear enough to make him worth a bet at or near his morning line.

Iwannaiwannaiwanna (4-1) moves up from a maiden win, but that was a dominating effort in his first try on Poly. Horse to beat for the red hot Ken McPeek. Ghostwalking (4-1) drops in class for Mott, and raced well against maiden special company at Woodbine last year.


DiscreetPicks said...

Hollywood - Race 4

#5 Bet On Victor (5/2 ml)

Speedy Cerin colt battled on some very fast early fractions while being very ambitiously placed when coming off a 10-month layoff, and understandably got tired late. Figures to have gotten quite a bit out of that race conditioning-wise, and note the similar pattern to what he did last year, coming off a long layoff @ Santa Anita and showing sharp early speed before returning to post a solid win @ Hollywood in his second start of the year (the same situation as tonight). Also note the return to Bejarano, who was aboard for both wins last year. Even better, he should get loose on the lead here, with none of his opponents figuring to have much interest in challenging the early pace. That should enable Bet On Victor to coast along on some pretty modest fractions, saving plenty of gas for the stretch run. He also figures to be a pretty good price here, showing what's easily the worst last-race Beyer in the field, and his late fade last time doesn't figure to get anyone too excited, especially on the stretchout to 7 furlongs. Square price on the most likely winner of the race.

Anonymous said...


Joey said...

Nice hit and good observation on Looks Purrrfect... stayed at 5 to 1 odds paying $12.60 to win. I really like your commentary on the races. I'll be viewing your blog daily from now on, I could use some help/guidance with my Keeneland picks.

DiscreetPicks said...

You don't have to worry about Keeneland picks anymore, and least until this fall. Today was closing day, which of course coincides with the opening of Churchill Downs.

Btw, great call Alan.

Figless said...

Despite the obvious tactical advantage Haynesfield appears vulnerable today and I am going to wager that he finishes no better than the show position.

Christmas With Liam might just be the real deal and I am keying him on top and in the late P4.

Soaring Empire also obviously warrants support and can not be left out of the exotics.

I am intrigued with the Repole/Pletcher claim, as a Big A fan it is hard not to like this non-gelded son of good old Arromaches, which certainly influenced Repole to take this plunge.

Has had time to adjust to Pletchers program after success running for low percentage barns.

His last fig and raw time put him in the mix even discounting the barn change, but the horse he narrowly defeated returned to be crushed by Christmas With Liam which was the deciding factor.

This race is a lot more interesting and deeper than the ML indicates.

Figless said...

Haynesfield couldnt even hold third to make my trifecta, 35-1 shot gets up for third when Castellano and Dominguez failed to ride their mounts to the wire, in a graded stakes no less.

Stewards should give them a stern slap on the wrist.

Not sour grapes, TRI was not making me rich and I did catch the healthy late pick 3.

Big A winter hero Arromanches has now sired a Graded SW! Who would thunk it.

Figless said...

First local two year old race of the year tomorrow, field of 8 includes two uncoupled entries from Ward and Fawkes and what appears to be a real nice Pletcher runner.