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Friday, August 03, 2012

Friday Quick Picks

Couple of quick picks then we're hitting the road for upstate.  In the 6th (and this only if the race is on the grass), Jitney (8-1) cuts back to a sprint for trainer John Hertler; he's a low percentage guy, but he's managed to pop at least one winner here each of the last five meets.  In her turf debut sprinting two races back, this 3yo daughter of Utopia bobbed and weaved her way through traffic and missed by only a length, a half length behind A.P. Hutchy (9-5), the presumed favorite in this race who benefited from a perfect pocket trip that day.  Last was a bummer at a route, will appreciate the cutback to 5 1/2 here, and gets a hungry rider in Shaun Bridgmohan, a 20% guy trying to make the most of his spare opportunities amongst this jockey colony.  Cape Cod Carol (8-1) goes well for Alvarado and can rally for a share.

In the 7th, again hopefully on the turf with isolated storms in the steamy forecast, Native Wave (5-1) drops in class for trainer A. Dutrow.  In his turf debut two races back, this 3yo son of Rahy seemed to take a few moments to gain his bearings on the new surface before moving up inside, waiting for a seam, and finishing well to miss by 3/4's.  Each of the three who finished in front of him have since raced well enough so that they would each be solidly favored in this field.   Native Wave faded in his last after chasing an extremely fast pace.  Dropdown and switch to Ramon should make him tough here; would be quite the bargain at his morning line in my view.   Best of luck and have a great day!

11 Comments:

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Anonymous said...

Nice one ALAN

steve in nc said...

Too bad that frontrunner was able to loaf on the lead in your second leg or it woulda been a sweet dd.

Whodya like in the two stakes Saturday? Tough pair of races.

In the Prioress, I think you have to figure Smoke & Agave kill each other again, and use all the closers.

The Whitney looks like a toss-up kind of race with no one particularly consistent, so I'll stab with prices, and use Caixa & Trickmeister. Just tiny entertainment size bets.

alan said...

Hey Steve- I bet that DD cold, it was paying $82. So yeah, that hurt. Did well on the 6th though, had the triple, so not complaining....too much. Working on the stakes now.

Figless said...

Who makes the ML at the Spa?

Anecdotally they have been WAY off base this year and it continues in the Prioress.

How in the world is Agave Kiss 8-5 in this spot?

Would be nice if the Chief could win yet another G1 at the Spa, so rooting for Emma's Encore and will play her if close to her 4-1 ML, but I suspect she will be favored after defeating the first two choices handily in her last, a fact seemingly ingnored on the ML.

But my top selection is Judy The Beauty for Ward, who had a nice tune-up on the turf returning from a long layoff after running 2nd in last years Spinaway. Shipped straight from that turf race to the Spa where she has trained brilliantly and should sit a nice stalking trip under Rosario.

The Whitney came up strong for a Grade Two race (umm, G1? not so much), and once again a ML jumps out at me as ridiculous.

As you can tell I'm not impressed with the quality of this rendition but Fort Larnard at 7-2 of his Cornhusker win for Wilkes/Hernandez? Big fig but does anyone really think this horse is going to be less than 8-1 breaking from the far outside while facing fan favorites from Pletcher (2), Mott (2), Dutrow and Shug?

Unusual amount of early pace for a two turn Graded Event should set it up for one of the Big Three closers and perpetual bridesmaids, none of which have won a race over the track. Hymm Book is best over a wet surface, so unless a late afternoon downpour develops (20% chance) leaving him off the ticket. Onc of my all time sucker horses Flat Out still hasn't won a Stake of any kind going two turns so going to reluctantly land on probable 8-5 favorite Ron The Greek. Better a short price than a long face.

Will try Caixa Electonica (15-1) underneath to add some value, surprising 2-2 at the distance, two wins over the surface, and Javier should be able to work out a nice stalking trip while inheriting the lead at the eight pole. Use Flat Out as well in the place and show spots that he seems to prefer.

Good luck to all

steve in nc said...

Fig, I've been noticing the same problem with the MLs.

Some are just plain misses, and in some cases, like Agave, I don't think the oddsmaker is giving fans enough credit for ability to see psst horses' general reputation.

I was surprised he had Saginaw favored by that much and it turns out Bandbox took the money (just not the purse).

In the Whitney, I'm giving Trickmeister a chance to clear early and convince Bravo to sit and wait on Rule. If they let Ramon get away with 46:4, he could be trouble at a big price.

Figless said...

Or maybe oddsmaker knew Smoke was going to scratch?

As my friend told me after his successful week up there, dont be concerned at all if your horse is dead on the board, in fact bet more. A lot of amateur money in the pools.

Was thinking Shackleford would have looked real tough in The Whitney, respect their decision to stay sprinting but they have to be having second thoughts.

I took a long look at Trickmeister as well hoping maybe he could shake loose if all the others didnt respect his speed, but there are too many other front running types in here and the outside horse almost has to leave with him.

Good luck, maybe I will toss Trick underneath in the TRI's, its not like I am married to Flat Out although sometimes it seems that way.

steve in nc said...

Your wife doesn't read this blog, I presume? :)

Anonymous said...

The nimrod that knocked Eric Donovan's ML ( you try making a ML at Saratoga, oh wait, you did....and you embarrassed yourself ) and said Emma's Encore would be favored ( maybe the dumbest thing posted anywhere in cyberspace today ) should send Eric a personal apology.

Emma's Encore would be favored! That's hilarious. Get a clue.

Figless said...

Fort Larnard was 9-1, won the race but a LOT closer to my 8-1 projection than ED's 7-2 ML, so I guess I have a clue, at a minimum.

Once Smoke scratched Agave appeared lone speed, which should have compromised Emma but did not. I will take consolation that I NAILED that Exacta, and will give a tip of the hat to ED for leading the neophtes onto an obviously very over rated Agave.

So I nailed the Whitney line, and lost the race, and missed the Prioress line yet nailed the race, not a bad result. Not bad for a clueless nimrod :)

Figless said...

I wont quibble with the ML in the Vanderbilt although I think Shackleford will be a deserved shorter price than 6-5ML, perhaps as low as 1-2, with Emcee consequently drifting north to the 3-1 range. Not a big deal, just saying.

I do believe Justin Philip will be a solid third choice in the 7-1 range, as opposed to his stable mate Rothko who will be higher than his 8-1ML.

But from the much more important handicapping perspective, I believe JP is the main threat, if any, to Shackleford, who despite probably being the best older horse in the country has never run 6f and this being Saratoga that means you have to at least try and beat him.

Will box those two and use Jersey Town, the 2010 Cigar Mile winner who was second in last year's Forego, into the third spot in attempt to create some value.

Good luck.