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Wednesday, August 08, 2012

Wednesday Quick Picks

Pretty brutal card at Saratoga today, with three maiden claimers, another inscrutable baby race, and others that figure to feature heavy favorites.  But let's see what we can do with it.

Just a mention here in the 2nd; Key Victory (8-1) goes for trainer John Hertler, who came through on Friday with Jitney.   Low percentage barn as I mentioned....but he also had a good third, also on the grass, with Lord of Love at 10-1 on Saturday.  Key Victory is 2 for 51 lifetime, which is hard to get behind for the win spot.  But he's gone well his last two tries at this level, and could liven up the exotics here.  Jess Not Jesse (5-2) will be real tough for Linda Rice if ready off the layoff.

In the 6th, Marvelous Margaret (6-1) returns to the dirt for trainer Carlos Martin (10-1-4-0).  This 3yo daughter of Put It Back was rushed into stakes company off her maiden win last winter, and appears to be rounding into form at more appropriate class levels.  This filly had an absolute nightmare trip two back, steadied early, lacking room, and then steadied again, off heels, in the stretch before recovering quickly to finish with enthusiasm for third.  Royal Start (7-2) and Tanglewood Tale (6-1) ship in off the same race at Churchill; they finished virtually evenly, but the latter was far wider, and gets the edge over Royal Start, who could however improve first off the claim for Peter Walder.  Salvar (8-1) is on the improve and moves up in class.  Whoever you like, might be worth checking out the double prices with Post Pattern (5-2) in the 7th, who has finished well against some horses that have run really well since.

In the 10th, The Kid N Me (6-1) had no shot whatsoever in an exceedingly slow-paced affair at Belmont, in which he closed in 11 1/5 to no avail for trainer Barclay Tagg, looking for his first winner of the meet.  If there's any such thing as a key 25K maiden claimer, that race would be it; it's produced five subsequent winners and a second.   This gelded son of Lemon Drop Kid is bred for grass through and through; out of an Unaccounted For mare who's a half to graded grass winners Royal Mountain Inn, Miss Josh, Highland Springs, and Highland Crystal.  Santonio d'Oro (3-1) seems the logical choice after running evenly against better; and will hopefully, along with Hidden Vow, at least provide some pace for the top choice.  Griffin Rock (8-1) is 0-for-23 lifetime but has shown life with jockey Wilmer A. Garcia.  Best of luck and have a great day.


steve in nc said...

OK, I'm taking a day off and spent too much time on Forumulator this morning, so ...

Race 1:
Contessa often tries adding blinks early in career without big improvement and his horses with similar PPs to this rail filly, if they did well, show workouts with gaps as long as 3 weeks. Bottom of tri at best.

Chad Brown is 2-2 with firsters for Klaravich; can't toss the chalk here.

In her best workout (June 15), Kitty Panda worked in company with and got the same time as Funfair, who beat open company on grass in her debut at Belmont, also with Leparoux.

Spinit to Winit on the other hand, worked in company with Leap in each workout, was slower than foe, who ran 4th in debut. Toss.

Albertrani and Hertler show little success with firsters and there's no reason to believe today's fillies are exceptional. DiMauro has only done well second out with horses that ran decently first out. Toss the 8 as well.

Tagg hasn't hit a firster in NY in years, but is 2-6 with NYB if you go back aways. Both were odds on, so I'll use this one only if she's significantly below her ML.

Kenneally in races 2 & 3:

His horses that fall apart then have big gaps don't look good when they return. The ones that were OK before the layoff returned OK. Toss Bay Park Boy.

He is 3-4 with maidens dropping from MSW to MClm in their second start. Playing Spicy Devine to beat the Pletcher. Toddster's record with MClm firsters makes this one just another filly in the race. Zayat doesn't want to mess with mediocre horses; this one's in for a tag sale.

Race 6:

Marvelous Margaret isn't very fast and I tend to downgrade, rather than excuse, horses that have trouble race after race. Union Victory should clear and the only question is whether Malibu Holiday can catch her.

Good luck all.

steve in nc said...

Correction on Kenneally: the 3-4 stat was horses dropping in MClm level in 2nd start. Sorry.

jh said...

Nice call on Marvelous Margaret.
She nearly pulled it off, but the 30 dollar exacta was a pretty square deal.