More BC

- A few more notes about the Breeders Cup and then we can move on, maybe. To what exactly, I don't know. There's always the 7th at Turf Paradise.

- Cash Included was a major disappointment in the Juvenile Filles; she even had a spot on the rail. Dreaming of Anna was a live number on the board, and went off as the favorite despite being the 4-1 second choice on the morning line. Octave had the inside before swinging out to get second. Every trip handicapper and his aunt and uncle will be betting against her and Cash Included the next time they run.

Scat Daddy, I thought, was the most overbet horse on the day, with the arguable exception of Hurricane Run. He'd never been around two turns, yet was 7-2 in a very contentious field. Circular Quay was also overbet at 5-2, especially in relation to the overlaid winner Street Sense, who, as I pointed out here on several occasions, only lost to Circular Quay by a nose in the Breeders Futurity despite ceding ample ground. What do you think the odds would have been on these horses if Street Sense was running for Pletcher, and Circular Quay for Nafzger?

I had picked Scat Daddy here and in print, but no way could I accept his 7-2 odds. I liked Great Hunter and Street Sense, and I think I would have had more than just a small saver win bet on the latter if Hank Goldberg hadn't picked him. That made me sour on him a bit, though I did have him in my losing Pick 3's. The Head Chef felt that Goldberg's reasoning was similar to mine, and that he must have gotten the idea from reading Left at the Gate. I would doubt that, but it would be rather ironic if true; it would mean that I kinda talked myself out of a horse by talking someone else into it.

- Gotta stop now, because we're going to see a movie, The Prestige. The Head Chef is very excited because Bowie is in it. So I reserve the right to write some more about the Breeders Cup.

Just heard on TVG that A Flock of Seagulls will be playing at Hollywood Park tonight.

Sorry to do this to you, but I just can't help it.



Please forgive me.

Haskin Piece Pulled?

- Patrick has a link to Google's cache of Haskin's piece in Bloodhorse over at Pulling Hair. (The original link comes up as a blank.) Check it out and see what you think. Haskin questions Bernardini's retirement, as many other journalists have, and opines: "The chance of Bernardini reproducing himself at stud is slim to none."

A poster on the Thoroughbred Champions board says:

I just spoke with Ron Mitchell, the online editor at the Blood Horse. He told me that the article was pulled at the direct request of the editor, Ray Paulick.

Thanks to weegee for sending that information along. Perhaps the editor will drop by and let us know what's up.

Notes - Nov 10

- After a year and a half absence that was originally to be a few months, racing will resume at Yonkers Raceway on November 17, pending the facility passing a re-inspection of fire code violations. The racino there is already pumping out the most money of any in the state.

At the upstate harness track Vernon Downs, the new racino there netted $1 million after its first week of operation; ranking it 4th of the 8 existing racinos in terms of take per machine. But horseman there are not yet seeing any money. Under the contract with the track owner, American Racing & Entertainment, the first $250,000 of video gambling money earmarked for horsemen will be given back to the company. [Syracuse Post-Standard, via Albany Law School Racing and Wagering Page.]

The Albany Times-Union reports that the state will ask U.S. Bankruptcy Court to throw out NYRA's Chapter 11 claim. The state loaned NYRA $8 million to get them through the rest of the year. None of this would have been necessary if the state would simply approve the Aqueduct casino. Bill Nader pointed out to the NY Post: "Opening day [of the long-delayed casino at Aqueduct] was supposed to be Dec. 1, 2006, three weeks away."

Charles Hayward told a meeting of creditors that NY's OTB owes the association $10.5 million, and reiterated his claim that NYRA owns the land, an issue on which the state still seems to be trying to avoid a ruling by a bankruptcy court.

Trash Blogging

- Reader weegee writes in regarding Andy Beyer's column last week in the Daily Racing Form in which he accused Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum and family of "checkbook horsemanship," and the ensuing reaction by Shadwell's Rick Nichols in labelling the piece "trash journalism." As weegee notes, Ray Kerrison in the NY Post reports that Darley reportedly responded by withdrawing their advertising from the paper. I haven't read anything about Haskin's comments being suppressed by Bloodhorse; I'd be interested in seeing any information anyone may have about that. You can email me here.

I found the reaction to Beyer's column (there goes my chances of landing a banner ad from Godolphin) to be more noteworthy than the piece itself, which I found rather routine. We've been reading for years in sports about controversy over professional teams that try to buy championships and, as Steve Crist noted in his recent take on the spat, there's been similar grousing in the past in racing about Calumet and the patrons of Wayne Lukas. I thought that the best part of Beyer's column was that regarding the lack of human interest associated with owners such as these. ("You've won the Kentucky Derby, Sheikh!" - hehe)

The howling by Kentucky horsemen, flush from the Keeneland yearling sales during which the Maktoums spent over $70 million in the first two days, over the column was expected. Indeed, Geoffrey Russell, the director of sales at Keeneland, was recently quoted during the ongoing November breeding stock sale as saying that "..we'd love to have those two 747's parked at the airport." Horsemen there cite the Sheikh's charitable activities, and that is indeed commendable, but as John Pricci points out in a column on MSNBC.com today that is perhaps even more critical than Beyer's, we’d be less than candid if we didn’t acknowledge that it’s good PR, too. Whatsmore, it seems to me that some are engaging in rationalization for the obscene sums they are receiving for their produce.

And I'd be less than candid if I didn't point out that the same magnanimous Sheikh is the subject of a lawsuit filed in this country for allegedly trafficking and employing kidnapped youths as young as four as camel jockeys, calling it "one of the greatest humanitarian crimes of the last 50 years."

As for the reaction from the Sheikh's camp, we know that they are interested in dominance of American racing, but he better get used to freedom of the press, which is an evolving process in the United Arab Emirates.

On the other hand, this is a free country, the Maktoums are free to spend their money as they wish, and there are certainly many beneficiaries here who I don't wish to begrudge for their good fortune. But the key question that Beyer raised is whether they are ultimately good for the game. A decision on Bernardini other than retirement would have gone a long way towards the argument that they are. Bringing him back to race at four would have done nothing to put even a dent in the Sheikh's vast finances, even if disaster struck, and would have shown that he is truly the great sportsman that his supporters make him out to be. There's no reason for this retirement other than the bottom line, and while there is no faulting the folks in Kentucky for considering theirs as well, the long term future of the sport lies more with great horses running in great races against each other over a period of time than in $11 million yearlings. To the end of the former, the Sheikh is only giving us brief glimpses before hauling them off for his own greedy purposes. And there's nothing sporting about that.

- Pricci also notes Bernardini being ill-prepared for the challenge presented by Invasor in the stretch, writing: Javier Castellano appeared more interested in styling and index-finger pointing than preparing his mount for the tougher challenges to come this fall. OUCH!

- There's a different take on the Beyer flap in the UK's Times Online that the SuperfectaBlog beat me to in this excellent post; the Times' columnist claims that the Maktoums have invigorated the sport on a global scale, with a positive knock-on effect for Britain.

Wet and Broke

- David Grening in the Form reports that the main track at Aqueduct needs repairs that NYRA can't afford.

"Without that [slot] revenue stream here, we are in Chapter 11 protection, and he's [track superintendent John Passero] talking about overhauling the track," [Bill] Nader said. "Right now, it's up to him and his staff to really keep the track in the best possible condition and hope we don't get hit with 3 1/2 inches of rain."

Think things are gettin a little tense there? Racing was cancelled on Thursday after a day-long rain the day before that caused problems that Passero attributed to the cushion, and that would cost $3 million to replace. Perhaps the state can give it to them out of the $9 million they got from Yonkers for being serial polluters.

The racing at Old Hilltop, which was supposed to start on Nov 4, and then Nov 11; but a check of the USTA website shows only a 4 horse qualifer scheduled for Friday. Perhaps that's a dry run in preparation to finally resume the racing that is required by law.

Jerry Bossert of the NY Daily News says that NYRA needs money for a new roof at the Big A too. There were more garbage cans collecting water than there were fans at the track. For the record, that would mean that there were at least 1,239 garbage cans.

Miesque's Mile

- The Breeders Cup seems like an eon ago after the stunning events of the last 36 hours. It takes a lot to shut me up, but I've been thrown way off-track. I did want to dwell on a few more things though, and besides, what else to we have to discuss for the next couple of weeks anyway? So let's talk about the Mile. Watching the pre-race interview with Gorella's owner Martin Schwartz and the post-race one with Miesque's Approval's trainer Martin Wolfson and his wife, you really saw the emotions that our sport evokes in its human participants. Schwartz, the owner of Gorella, was just beaming in the paddock before the race; it was like his daughter was about to take the stage to show off her talent to the world, and he couldn't wait for everyone to see just how fabulous she is.

Unfortunately, we didn't get to see her on her best day. Her effort in the First Lady, just three weeks before, was apparently more taxing than I thought, and her dull 7th place finish was one of several real disappointments of the day. A look back at her running lines show that her only other U.S. out-of-the-money finish, a 5th in the Turf Classic last year, was also after three weeks rest. But there's good news here, and that is the fact that, according to Patrick Biancone, she came out of the race fine and, better yet, will race again next year. Perhaps she'll have a chance to make amends at Monmouth.

As for Miesque's Approval, we've already discussed this in the comments section, but I still think that he was not at all an illogical winner off his recent form. His recent Beyers were comparable with those of Gorella, with the exception of her last race (which I guess was too fast for her).
He was four-for-six this year coming in, and was in the best form of his career, which spans some 39 races now. It was the climax of a stunning (there's that word again) turnaround under Wolfson after his last race for Bill Mott, a 6th in a $50,000 claimer late last year. This horse was competitive in G2/3 races and flashed triple digit Beyers back in 2002 and 2003, but had been basically a high-priced claimer since; and that 50K race represented a 50% tag sale for him. But he dominated the Mile, blowing past the field from dead last and widest of all coming around the turn for home; this in a final quarter of 23.4!

And all at the age of seven. I think that he's one of the more fascinating stories of the day, but it's almost completely lost amidst everything else that happened. And once again, I believe that that's one of the problems with eight championship races in one day. There's no way for the sport to mine all the stories for the attention they deserve.

The appearance of Wolfson and his wife Karla after the race was one of the more bizarre moments of the broadcast. Either overcome with emotion or the beginning of a new wave of pod people, the pair looked more like what I imagine Karl Rove and Condoleezza Rice looked like on Wednesday morning than winning connections in a $2 million race.

ESPN did some of their best work in this race, other than the disoreinting overhead and close-up turn shots that they used all day. Trevor Denman almost got out of the race unscathed, picking up the winner's wide move (perhaps they don't rally on the inside much on the Left Coast), but calling him "Mystique's Approval" the first time through the field. Besides the aforementioned interviews, there were pre-race interviews with Aiden O'Brien, who had Ad Valorem and the no-shot Aussie Rules in the race, and a particularly revealing and frank chat with Godolphin's Simon Crisford. If you had bet on Librettist before hearing what Crisford had to say about him, you were rushing to try and cancel the bet. He basically told the TV audience that the horse had no shot. (And he has now been retired to stud.)

Araafa was a major disappointment. As Walter mentioned, ESPN had the prominent UK bookmaker Simon Clare on, and he touted Araafa up and down. His trainer Jeremy Nosada offered "no excuses." Aragorn ran well for second, and Badge of Silver ran on well for third. Bobby Frankel will nominate Badge of Silver to the Citation Handicap (G1) on November 24 at Hollywood Park and Hill 'n' Dale Cigar Mile Handicap (G1) on November 25 at Aqueduct for the horse's final start. [Thoroughbred Times]

- Miesque's Approval is by Miesque's Son, a son of Mr. Prospecter who stands in France and shuttles to Brazil. He's out of a With Approval mare, and he's a half to the G1 turf winner Revved Up.

- From the website of the Wall Street Journal:

Race-track loving politicos have taken note that a horse named Rove also lost big on Election Day—but at Churchill Downs, not Washington.

The four-year-old colt—no relation to Bush political adviser Karl Rove [I didn't write that folks; it's straight from the most conservative newspaper you can find-ed.] —went off 9th [??-ed.] in the 2nd race at the famous Kentucky track on Tuesday, and finished dead last. “Rove was always outrun,” said the track’s own synopsis of the race, which occurred on a sloppy track.

Unlike the human Rove, the equine version has raced six times and never won. Provoking still more grins among the politically minded horse set is that the winner of the race was none other than a chestnut colt named…Special Interest.

Get Your BC Beyers

- Here are those Beyers:

Dreaming of Anna - 90
Street Sense - 108
Ouija Board - 108
Thor's Echo - 116
Miesque's Approval - 109
Round Pond - 100
Red Rocks - 111
Invasor - 116

- Mr. Greeley doesn't have a North American Grade 1 winner this year, but his fee for 2007 has been doubled to $70,000 partly on the strength of the performance of his progeny in the sales ring. The 14-year-old son of Gone West averaged $486,250 at the Saratoga sale and was represented by a $5.7 million colt at the Keeneland September sale. [Bloodhorse]

- The Sprint division is in shambles, so Doug O'Neill will take his Eclipse shot with Thor's Echo, and why not? He'll run him in the Grade 1 Frank J DeFrancis at Laurel on November 25.

"If we can get another Grade 1 in there, they'll have to consider us, that's for sure. We came out of the race good. He's a big, good-looking horse, and the races don't take that much out of him. He's doing really, really well." [Washington Post]

Well, O'Neill is forgetting how much the Dubai race took out of him, but why dwell on that? The Sprint was just his third race since then. Two G1 wins to go along with his two G2 seconds just might do the trick, you think?

Notes - Nov 7

- Steve Davidowitz reports in DRF Plus that the main track at Churchill was wet down and manicured after the Distaff to help neutralize a strong inside rail bias that had been a major factor in the other dirt races.

- The winning margin of ten lengths by Street Sense was the largest in Juvenile history, and the highest Beyer, 108, as well.

- Mike Watchmaker writes that the record handle for the Breeders Cup program is even more impressive than the ease with which it surpassed the previous record set last year.

This is nothing short of remarkable considering that with all the longshot winners in this Breeders' Cup, there was little betting churn. It's almost scary to think of what the all-sources handle might have been if the Breeders' Cup results had been a bit more formful, because if they were, money would have gone back to more bettors, meaning more bettors would have been more willing to put more money back into Breeders' Cup pools. [DRF]

- You don't mind if I toot my own horn a little, do you? On September 22, before the running of the Matron for two-year old fillies, I posed the question: is it possible that Magical Ride's 102 Beyer in her winning debut at Belmont is too high? Dick Jerardi in the Form explains how and why the figure was subsequently lowered to 92.

- Vic Stauffer is out as track announcer at Gulfstream. He was notified by email, very nice.

I heard Stauffer call a race the other day at Hollywood that had a very close finish, and after the race he goes, "I think it's [so-and-so], and if it is, that's good for me!" We know that Stauffer bets on races from his appearances on TVG, which he'll have more time for now. And while I have no problem with announcers having fun doing their craft; for example, those who do imitations of other race callers and celebrities, to me, that crossed the line of professionalism. I'm sure that bettors who were smarting from the close defeat were not necessarily sharing in the announcer's joy.

Issue 3 Goes Down

- Voters in Ohio rejected Issue 3, the ballot measure that would have brought slots to racetracks and stand-alone issues. The defeat comes despite a huge financial advantage for supporters, who spent an estimated $20 million in advertising on the failed measure. But all the money couldn't overcome a "fairly strong elite consensus," as newspaper editorials, and religious and elected officials came out broadly against the measure. Referendum sponsor Learn and Earn hurt itself with strong-arm tactics, and ads and revenue projections that were considered to be deceptive. Senator George Voinovich led the politicians' drive against the slots.

"For many months, my wife and I and our many friends have prayed that the Holy Spirit would enlighten Ohioans to see through the slots proposal," Voinovich said in a written statement. "Tonight our prayers were answered." [Cleveland Plain Dealer]

Not many other Republicans can say that this morning.

Notes - Nov 6

- In the bipartisan spirit of Election Day (ha), I think I'm going to stay mostly out of this discussion going on regarding Pine Island in particular, and breakdowns in general. I think both sides' hearts are in the right place and each makes valid points, though in my opinion, I think each of them is rather extreme. Though I'm sure there are a number of people who have ceased being fans because of such incidents, I wouldn't blame that for attendance declines. But I think that an accident such as Saturday's is worth more than 30 seconds of comtemplation.

I say the latter partly because of the early - and let's emphasize early - promise of synthetic surfaces in reducing such breakdowns, which will never be totally eliminated. As long as there's something that can be done, I think it's worth discussing.

One topic about which I'm getting to the point where I don't want to spend more than 30 seconds on is stories such as the retirement of Bernardini. As long as there's such big money involved in breeding, this is something that's never going to change. Yesterday at the Keeneland November sale, over $6 million was paid for Half Ours, an undefeated (2-for2) two year old who hasn't been sound enough to run in over a year. It wasn't because the buyer has visions of winning the Donn Handicap...except as a means to an end. "We hope to win a grade I with him and then stand him at stud." [Bloodhorse] $6 million for Madcap Escapade; $3.4 million for Sharp Lisa, who isn't even all that great.

This is the game now, and we can beat our heads about it all we want, but it doesn't seem worth the bother as long as the financial incentives are what they are.

But in the case of Bernardini and Henny Hughes, I can't help it. Check out this quote from Darley's Dan Pride:

"These are the supreme Thoroughbreds of their generation and each bested older horses, too....They are well-bred and exceptionally attractive. They were not only brilliant, but they came back for more time and again."

For one thing, we can count the number of older horses Henny Hughes beat on the fingers of one hand. But - "they came back for more time and again?" More what? Rest? Hay? Jeez man, you gotta be kidding me!!

OK, there's my 30 seconds on that. Time to move on.

Overshadowed by the news is the surprising and welcome word that Invasor will be back, and pointed to Dubai. Will he get a rematch with Discreet Cat there? Sign me up for the Sheikh Hamdan Fan Club:

“Breeding is a big part of what we do here at Shadwell, but it’s all about producing good horses. The horse can be bred at any time. To get a horse of his ability is not something that happens frequently. It came down to not retiring him while he is at the peak of his career.” [NY Times]

We do hear such sentiments from time to time, but not generally regarding a four-year old non-gelded winner of the Classic.

- Pine Island was buried on Monday at Claiborne Farm.

- Reader Green Mountain Punter passed on this article from the Saratogian that has some history of NYRA's battles with the state, and specifically, about the agreement that has led the state to believe that they own the land. In the early 1980's, NYRA accepted a provision by then Speaker Stanley Fink that the state could take possession of the tracks upon termination of the association's existence; this in return for a 15-year extension of the franchise.

At the time, the late Alfred G. Vanderbilt told me of his worry that NYRA, led by [former president Gerald] McKeon and board chairman Tom Bancroft, would accept the Fink demand.

Vanderbilt, a former board chairman and one of the sport's greatest patrons, defended NYRA's ownership and said he was willing to lose the betting license and keep the properties, rather than the other way around.

But NYRA accepted the Fink provision, a regrettable decision that state leaders today cite in their contention that they own the tracks.

However, in its Fall 2004 issue, the New York State Bar Association's Government, Law and Policy Journal raised the question of whether or not the state acted constitutionally with the Fink demand.

Soon, a New York bankruptcy court will no doubt get to rule on just that.

- Please feel free to email me links to stories, as well as comments, questions, and suggestions.

Red Rocks the Turf

- In the Turf, Better Talk Now might have thought it was like old times and that it was Shake the Bank, rather than Icy Atlantic playing the rabbit up front. The latter served more as a target than a bunny in the Turf Classic, going 51.1 and 1:16.1. Randy Moss and Jerry Bailey, talking before the race, discussed just that. Moss warned that if Icy Atlantic went too fast, it would set the race up for horses from way back. Bailey said that if you see the horse tossing his head around then "Johnny's in trouble."

And though Pletcher said afterwards that "Icy Atlantic did his job,” Frankie Dettori, on the winner Red Rocks, said, "Beyond my wildest dreams, I didn't expect a furious pace like they did go today." [Courier-Journal] And “That was a crazy pace. I knew they couldn’t keep up that pace. They were going ridiculously fast." [Equibase] And both ESPN commentators were right on. English Channel fought Velazquez through the stretch the first time, and perhaps the rider was unable to put him on the rail when he had a chance prior to that, approaching the first of the three turns. He ended up wide on all three turns, relatively close to the pace, and actually ran a fantastic race to be third. As Moss predicted, it was the horses that were third and second to last who finished 1-2.

Hurricane Run was pounded at the windows in the last few minutes, going from 7-2 to 5-2, and that's a lot of Euros to cause a move like that. But, as related by the UK's Guardian, he put up a moody show and trailed home sixth. English Channel was the slight favorite over Cacique, both at 7-2, and the latter, my most confident selection of the day, was awful, putting in a move on the turn, but fading back to 10th, yuck! Seemed like the race was a quarter mile too long for him. Prado said that he "pulled me every step of the way and tired from those efforts. Yeah, whatever.

In my opinion, Red Rocks was the most inexplicable winner of the day. For one thing, he was 9-1 morning line, and I don't know if I've ever seen that before. I admit that I don't know much about European racing, and most everything I do know I learned from Walter. But it just seemed to me that Red Rocks was clearly a cut below even an off-form Hurricane Run, certainly Scorpion off his Grade 1 wins last year. Plus, he's a three-year old, and one who, at least the way I read the Euro form lines, was not really improving, and seemed a notch below Grade 1.

Many feel that that's plenty enough class to beat the top American horses, and it's hard to argue with the results over the years. This one may be more attributable to the circumstances of the race though, especially since Better Talk Now, who has clearly slowed down a bit this year, lost by just a half-length. So, Red Rocks is one that I really didn't get; even Miesque's Approval made more sense to me. (OK Walter, let me have it.)

As we've mentioned, Red Rocks is a son of the English and Irish Derby winner and champion Galileo; and he has unusual breeding in that he's very closely inbred, 2x3, to Sadler's Wells (the sire of Galileo) and his full brother Fairy King. He's also inbred to Mr. Prospector, Hail to Reason, and Native Dancer.

Election Day

- I have mixed feelings about Election Day being so lose to Breeders Cup day. It's hard keeping up with both due to the sheer enormity, in relative terms, of each. The Breeders Cup is eight championships in one day. This Election Day feels like about 50 Breeders Cup races in one night.

On the other hand, it's saved me a lot of aggravation. As a Democrat, I've been feeling like I do when my horse is eight lengths up in the stretch, with the competition trying to run him down. The difference is that in a horse race, the competition isn't using lies and dirty tricks in order to catch the leader. (Maybe just a shot of illegal meds.)

I haven't heard a single Republican Party official say that they're going to win because the voters will see that they are the party that is correct on the issues. Rather, it's always, 'we'll win because we have more money than them.' Money to spend on TV advertising, most of it negative, much of it based on distortions and lies.

Both parties are guilty of that, and it makes me sick. Personally, I think that all TV campaign advertising should be banned during the final weeks leading up to an election as it is in the UK. Elections should be decided on issues, not on sound bites. But of course, the most egregious examples of slimy ads seem to have come from the Republican side; some of the biggest critics of those ads that I've heard actually come from the GOP candidates that they're made on behalf of!

Now comes word that the National Republican Campaign Committee is behind "robocalls" that are targeted to harrass Democratic voters; they start off by promising information on the Democratic candidate. If the recipient hangs up at that point, it calls back again and again until the message of slime is delivered. People who hang up are led to believe that they are being harrassed by the Democrat. The idea is to suppress the vote that they cannot otherwise due to their failed policies and the tragic and unnecessary war that is on their hands. Is this the GOP's idea of the democracy we're supposed to be fighting to defend? More on robocalls here and here.

I don't need to tell you who I think you should vote for, but I will tell you that you should vote. If you believe that the Republicans are the party that has the right plan for this country, and that they have conducted themselves with honesty and integrity, then by all means I think you should vote for them; in fact, I urge you to. But please don't vote for any candidate from any party based on 30 second sound bites, or cleverly produced attacks. And for heaven's sake, don't vote for the Republicans because you're scared. The GOP even shamelessly rolled out Osama bin Laden in a TV ad to try and frighten people into voting their way. While we need to be alert for sure, the idea that we in the most powerful nation on earth should be cowering in fear from a relative handful of fucking lunatics hiding in caves in Afghanistan is nothing but another despicable dirty trick. Don't believe the hype.

Bye Bye Bernie and Henny

- Bernardini will stand for $100,000, and Henny Hughes for $40,000 at Darley at Jonabel in 2007. I guess the word "redemption" has little meaning in sheikh-ese. Each of them will have well over 100 offspring each year, God willing, and each and every one of them are going to ask "Dad, why did you lose in the Breeders Cup?"

- Fusaichi Pegasus, who has had an extremely disappointing year with zero graded stakes winners has had his fee cut from $125,000 to $75,000.

To Bias Or Not To Bias

- no golden rail Alan,just sour grapes, writes reader David Rex. And a fellow TBA blogger opined in an email that it was just a coincidence.

For one thing, the only sour grapes on my part is that I prominently mentioned three of the winners from the rail, but blew the exotics, and only cashed a couple of saver win tickets. Damn, I really suck.

But back to the question at hand. The Churchill track superintendent Butch Lehr said of the apparent bias: "I was dumbfounded....I don't know what to say." [Courier-Journal] Pletcher said: "There seemed to be an obvious inside bias," while Kiaran McLaughlin said, "I thought it was coincidence more than anything."

Well, we're only talking about five races, and I always criticize those who jump to track bias conclusions based on small samples, so it's worth taking a closer look at. Street Sense and Round Pond had almost identical trips. Though the colt was further back in his race, they both hugged the rail except for briefly allowing a tiring horse, Principle Secret (who was dead on the board and even dead-er on the track) in the case of the Juvenile, to drop back inside of them.

The overhead shot on ESPN showed just how fortuitous Calvin Borel was on the winner, as Stormello drifted out to allow him through just as he arrived; and I imagine if ESPN had showed that shot after the Distaff, we would have seen the same for Round Pond. So you can certainly argue that those wins were more a case of trips than bias.

Thor's Echo broke from the rail and stayed there for part of the backstretch. But he eased out approaching the turn, and swept by Attila's Storm and Bordonaro while three wide on the turn. Dreaming of Anna may have just been much the best in the Juvie Fillies. And Invasor was wide throughout, but, he's Een-va-sor!

The two races on the undercard were on the main track too. In the first race, Maryfield moved to the fore on the inside and led from the half mile pole to the wire. In the second, It's No Joke, according to the chart, vied for the lead while wide. But the 1 horse, Irene's Mon, at 20-1, took the inside route around the turn and finished second by a head. (I haven't actually seen these races, since Churchill does not allow Cal Racing to show their races, instead referring web visitors to the paid section of Race Replays, thank you very much.)

So, I suppose you could make the case either way. The rail certainly wasn't dead, I think we can agree on that. But remember, Street Sense ran almost 50 feet farther than Circular Quay in the Breeders Futurity, and they finished virtually even. If you figure that Circular Quay may have run 50 feet more than Street Sense in this race, does a 100 feet distance explain 10 lengths?

A Distaff Disaster

- A couple of readers picked up on the story of the delay in an ambulance getting out to Fleet Indian after she was pulled up during the Distaff. ESPN did have a shot of her owner Paul Saylor standing with the horse at 4:09, eight minutes after the race was over. I remember thinking at the time that he looked calm and composed. Little did I know he was awaiting medical assistance for the horse, and neither did the commentators on ESPN. According to Saylor, an ambulance did not come for "damn near 20 minutes." And Saylor was not that calm in a subsequent interview, in which he hurled two complaints with one stone.

"They had to bring it over from the Sports Spectrum (now known as Trackside Louisville). I tell you what, I don't know if it's the Breeders' Cup or Churchill (that is responsible), but I'm going to find out and I'm going right after somebody's throat because if she had had a fracture, we would have lost her. Everybody was screaming about the track bias, which should not have happened either. If you weren't on the rail, you weren't going to win. But that (the time it took to get an equine ambulance to Fleet Indian) was friggin' unbelievable." [Bloodhorse]

Churchill denied that the ambulance had to be brought in from elsewhere, instead citing a supposed regulation that prohibits two ambulances from being on the track at the same time. Huh? I'd love to hear an explanation of that!! An ambulance was of course tending to the more severely injured Pine Island.

I'm still shocked that Denman missed Pine Island's fall. Looking back, you can see the spill just as ESPN cut away to a close-up shot. I didn't see it at the time, and had no idea that something had occurred. Did you? I had a nice exacta box with her and the winner, and was looking around for the familiar black silks and red cap in the stretch while wondering why I hadn't heard Denman call her name; but I didn't know her fate until the disturbing replay of it afterwards, for which I was totally unprepared. Watching the tape, I hear that Chris Fowler jumped right in after the finish to say that both favorites had been injured.

"She was running good. We got on the backside, and I asked her to switch leads, and it happened so fast," Castellano said. "She broke down. I don't know what else to say." [AP]

To his credit, Fowler immediately picked up on the irony of Michael Matz and Edgar Prado being the winning connections as a horse was stricken on the track with a life-threatening injury. Jeanine Edwards did a sensitive job interviewing Matz afterwards, who didn't smile until asked about Barbaro. (And did I miss something while going to the bathroom, or was that virtually the only mention of the Derby winner all day?) Ms. Edwards was emotional after getting the bad news from Dr. Bramlage on her being put down, reporting that Ogden Phipps declined going on the air, "not if I don't have to."

Nick Luck tried to interview Castellano moments afterwards, but there was no sound on the wireless connection; and you could then see Luck trying to actually push the rider into an accessible spot. I was thinking that a guy who just went tumbling off a horse probably didn't appreciate that! Nonetheless, excellent job there by ESPN, who was right on top of that situation, as Luck soon after reported that Castellano would ride Bernardini. I also have to say that Round Pond's owner Rick Porter could have shown more sensitivity to the situation when he was presented with the trophy in the winner's circle.

As for Round Pond, it doesn't get much easier for Edgar Prado. He just rode the live rail, except to ease around the tiring Healthy Addiction on the turn; then ducked right back to the golden path. Happy Ticket ran an absolutely fantastic race, wide against the bias on both turns and totally out of her stalking game; yet she rallied for third, placed second after Asi Siempre was DQ'd. What a game mare she is! Balletto, who with the favorites out was the only horse left under 10-1, made a run, but never one threatening enough to earn the emphatic stretch call that she did from Denman. Asi Siempre ran well enough to justify Patrick Biancone's confidence of her ability on the dirt.

It was Round Pond's first Grade 1 win of the year, and her second stakes win of the year in five starts. She's by Awesome Again, his third Grade 1 winner of the year. Round Pond is out of Trempolino half sister to Black Minnoloushe and the Grade 1 winner Nasr El Arab. Don't know if it's enough for her to win an Eclipse in a wide open division; the race will certainly be looked at as skewed as a result of the inside bias. Personally, I think Happy Ticket should get some consideration, but considering that she lost to Round Pond in both their meetings, that would be a tough call.

- One reader, I think it was Nick, wrote in last week to say that the rail at Churchill was dead! I had checked out the charts for Thursday, and he was most assuredly right, check them out! That track changed drastically between then and Saturday. The rail bias and the tragic Distaff will only up the intensity of the call to move to synthetic surfaces. (Though I imagine that bias players are salivating over betting on, and against, some of these horses in their next races.)

- One criticism of Bailey; after the Distaff, in defending the Churchill surface as safe, he denied that there was a strong bias. I beg to differ.

Ouija Board Shines Through

- I re-read my post on the Breeders Cup from Sunday morning, and it was pretty negative. Of course, it wasn't all bad, particularly the win by the fabulous Ouija Board. ESPN gave her the attention she was due, and British reporter Nick Luck, who did good work all day, interviewed her owner Lord Derby prior to the race. The interview was followed by one of the more precious moments of the telecast when Luck placed his hand on his heart, and said solemnly, "But all our hearts are a-flutter, us Europeans; we desperately hope she can."

It was just a classic ride by Frankie Dettori, saving ground around the first two (of three)from his advantageous inside post. (Another weird chart comment in this race: Ouija Board, never far back and rating kindly three or four wide.. Can't say I saw that.) Dettori eased her out approaching the final turn, swung wide in the stretch, and didn't even ask her for run until around that imaginary 300 yd marker. "From the furlong pole to the wire, it was just a time to enjoy the moment - and that doesn't happen very much." [Daily Racing Form]

"It's just life-changing to be around her," [trainer Ed] Dunlop said of the brown mare. "Hopefully, we'll find another one day." [Guardian UK]

Wait A While was bet early, actually opening as the favorite, but drifted up to the 2-1 second choice. John Velazquez is one of those riders who doesn't seem to care about ground loss if he thinks he's on the best horse, and he was two wide for the first turn, and easily three wide for the second [EDIT: NOTE CORRECTION IN COMMENTS SECTION; GOMEZ WAS ON WAIT A WHILE. THOUGH I STILL FEEL THAT WAY ABOUT JOHNNY V.] Given the winner's sheer dominance, I can't say that the ground loss cost her the race, but the runner-up Film Maker benefited from a ground saving trip. Honey Ryder put in a very admirable run for third from being nearly last on the turn. Somewhere on the turn. Hard to say where given ESPN's confusing cuts to an overhead shot, and then a disorienting shot from up close.

- As this commenter pointed out, Jerry Bailey did a great job on ESPN. He took us inside the starting gate, put us in the boots of Javier Castellano as he tumbled forward off the stricken Pine Island. He elaborated on what Bordonaro's trainer Bill Spawr meant when he was talking about how the appearance of the horse's hair helped him determine that he was ready for the race despite needing more time in the past. And before the Classic, using animation, he correctly predicted almost exactly how the race would be run, complete with Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron leading the way, and concluding that either Bernardini or Invasor would be the winner.

- Jeanine Edwards, doing trackside interviews, seemed nervous and got off to a shaky start with a halting interview of Dreaming of Anna's trainer Wayne Catalano, including an awkward and unnecessary query of exactly how much money the filly's owner had turned down for the horse. The question seemed even more trite after the race when the owner, choked with emotion, was unable to speak - the horse is named after his late sister. But Ms. Edwards recovered, and did an especially good job interviewing Dr. Bramlage after the Pine Island incident. Her best moment was when her face lit up after Spawr told her that he was hoping to get an easy lead in the race. "Wow, he wants an easy lead. Good luck with that!"

- The F&M Turf was one of Trevor Denman's better moments, as he noted how confidently Frankie Dettori was riding Ouija Board just before he asked her for run and she exploded home. The Distaff was by far his worst. He never picked up the fact that Pine Island was down, and he completely missed Round Pond until she had already burst into the lead.

Notes

- Patrick Valenzuela didn't seem to have any more success than John McKee in settling Lawyer Ron down. "I thought we had it worked out," said Pletcher of the colt's headstrong nature.

- A commendable effort by Giacomo, closing for 4th in his final start. He only finished 4 1/2 lengths back, and it had to be a better race than his Derby, right? He was the only horse to close from the back of the pack, including and especially the disappointing Sun King.

- If it's true as reported here in the Courier-Journal that Neither Sheik Hamdan nor Sheik Mohammed attended yesterday's races, then who exactly was the man that ESPN reporter Joe Tessitore addressed as the former in the winner's circle after the Classic? I was thinking, "Gee, so there's Sheik Hamdan," until Shadwell's Rick Nichols said "..if Sheik Hamdan was here." Oops.

BC Notes and Quotes

- Disappointing race by Lava Man, and I guess he's just a California horse. That doesn't disgrace him, he's still a great story, but he has serious limitations.

"Try to put any positive spin on it you can," said Doug O'Neill, Lava Man's trainer. "It just wasn't his day. He's got a few of these on his record and I'll hope he'll bounce back like he did after the Japan and New York debacles. (Jockey) Corey (Nakatani) said he was a little anxious in the starting gate and he had to give a little more than he wanted to in order to overcome his trouble at the starting gate." [Louisville Courier-Journal]

Aidan O'Brien talked up the effort of George Washington, who finished 6th at an overbet 9-1:

"It was his first time on the dirt and on this surface horses get a rough passage but you could see his class as he travelled so well....Basically he is pure speed, though, and I think he ran a great race on his first attempt at the distance." [Sporting Life UK]

Meanwhile, David Junior was as dead on the board as a horse could be, especially one considered to be one of the top horses in the world. He was 17-1 for much of the betting, and came down a bit to 14-1 at post time. Racing towards the golden rail, he was eased in the stretch. For a race that his owners were supposedly pointing for all year, it was a shockingly poor performance, and he was checked out by vets afterwards. His trainer Brian Meehan said that jockey Jamie Spencer told him the horse "seemed to go out on him" around the five-furlong mark.

"He said it wasn't an issue with the ground or the kickback or any of those situations," Meehan said. "We've got a vet going down to check him over and see that he's OK, but at this point in time, it's hard to say what has gone wrong." [LA Times]

Here's an interesting note about the rail bias from The Australian:

At daybreak there was a different kind of vandalism when someone decided to send out a tractor to scrape away excess dirt from along the running rail and spread it in the centre of the track. The result was a fast lane on the inside that dictated the pattern of racing for most of the day.

In the press box the actions of that tractor driver were the subject of intense discussion among the British racing media, who seem obsessed with the idea that Americans are somehow out to dud them.

Seems like a silly idea, but if so, they only "dud-ed" just about any horse starting from the two post or beyond!

- Todd Pletcher's 17 horses earned a total of $3,492,400 in purse money, for a trainer's share of $349,240.

“This is not a game of secondary awards and of course, I’m not happy with not winning a race....but the idea is to get your horses ready and to have them run well and for the most part, my horses did run well. [Boston Herald]

Fleet Indian was reported to be OK, at least in relative terms, after pulling up in the Distaff.

- Frank Calabrese, the owner of Dreaming of Anna, has the Kentucky Derby in mind. "She doesn't know the difference between girls and boys." [Baltimore Sun] That would be pretty funny if a horse from the Juvenile Fillies won the Derby before a horse from the Juvenile did. Just as she had to answer questions about handling stakes horses on the dirt after winning on the turf, she, and the other dirt winners other than Invasor, will be looked at with some doubt after riding the golden rail to victory.

- The Mile is the race that absolutely killed me. Even after holding a Pick Three ticket with Wait A While in the middle of Street Sense and Thor's Echo, and for some reason making the error of not including Ouija Board on that combination, I was alive to Gorella and Araafa in the Pick Three that started in the F&M Turf, and which included Thor's Echo. And, I had tickets that started with Thor's Echo, and concluded with Round Pond (and even included Aragorn, who I didn't really like). Ouch. I did like Miesque's Approval for minor awards, but never for the top spot. He actually came from further back than Gorella, so the latter had no excuse at all. Guess I was wrong about the effect that her prior race would have on her.

BC Hangover

- It's the morning after, and the Breeders Cup is not sitting well. Not at all. And it's not because I prominently mentioned three double digit winners in my final recaps, yet didn't manage to put them together in a winning way (not having the Pick 3 with Street Sense-Ouija Board-Thor's Echo was an inexcusable mistake on my part). Let's start with these reasons:

- A mixed bag at best by ESPN, which showed little in the way of innovation, and no post parades until the Classic (as well as a disappointingly inconsistent Breeders Cup debut by Trevor Denman.) C'mon man, isn't that something that a degenerate like Randy Moss would point out to the producers? It's just basic stuff!!

- A poor day for our U.S.-based stars, most notably Bernardini, but also Henny Hughes, Lava Man, and Gorella; as well as for Cacique and English Channel, those two considered to be the top American-based grass horses (the latter perhaps the victim of his own trainer's misguided and unnecessary decision to start a rabbit in the race). And speaking of Todd Pletcher, not a very good day for him either.

- A main track with a golden rail that may have skewed the results and sent hours of handicapping down the drain. All four of the dirt races prior to the Classic were won by the '1' horse.

- And, of course, the grisly death of Pine Island. The headline of the story on the front page of the Sunday Times sports section (buried far below the story of the all-important third game of the Knicks' season) reads Death Overshadow Upset of Bernardini in the Breeders Cup. There's your coverage of racing's second biggest day in the Paper of Record. And you'll be glad to know that columnist William C. Rhoden was on the scene and will most assuredly be checking in with his thoughts in tomorrow's paper.

Let's start with Bernardini for now. The way I was brought up to learn the game, there's never any disgrace in a top three-year old losing to a top older horse. In fact, at scale weights, you come to expect it. And yes, all props go to Nick Mordin - Invasor is an exceptional older horse. Affirmed lost no luster in his Triple Crown year when defeated by the four-year old Seattle Slew in the 1978 Marlboro Cup (he actually conceded Slew one pound on scale). Despite being beaten as the 1-2 favorite, he still won Horse of the Year. The next year, Spectacular Bid fell short against the four-year old Affirmed. Alysheba couldn't handle the older Ferdinand in the 1987 Classic.

But each of those defeated sophomores returned to establish (or re-establish) themselves as superstars at four; Alysheba never lost to Ferdinand again. Great horses do lose after all; Secretariat was hardly undefeated. For Bernardini, this was a whole new experience, having to actually exert himself. He must have been like "Whoa! Who are these guys? You mean I have to try?"

And it was a new experience for his jockey Castellano as well. Given the horrific spill that he took just two races earlier, it's hard for me to really get on his case too much for his ride, though the question of whether he moved too soon will haunt him for some time. But he rode the horse the way he was used to riding him; in the same fashion for the most part that produced his scintillating wins. Though with far more urging, Bernardini and Castellano basically ran the same race, disposing of the leaders on the turn and opening up a lead. If Castellano was a bit overconfident, can you really blame him?

I'm sure the rider wouldn't make the same mistake again, and that Bernardini would give Invasor all he could handle if they met again next year. But will they have the chance? It's doubtful that either will be on the track anymore; we'll likely only be able to speculate. But perhaps Bernardini's loss will change Sheikh Maktoum's mind, at least about him.

- Kiaran McLaughlin had expressed dismay at the illness that caused Invasor to miss the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but after the Classic he remarked, “There were 5 million reasons to miss. We just proved that....We won today, so it was great that we missed (the Gold Cup).” Oh man, talk about setting a sour precedent. Could be that whoever wins those Breeders Cup Challenges next year will move immediately to the sidelines to await Monmouth. We can probably expect some short fields in any October or late-September preps.

If Invasor had run in the Gold Cup, I think it's now fair to say that he could have, if not would have beaten Bernardini that day. I wonder what the Classic would have looked like if that had happened. Perhaps Discreet Cat would have run, and considering that he beat Invasor when he was barely a three-year old, I suppose he would have won. That's assuming a lot, but let's do it anyway and say: Great move to leave an Eclipse Award on the table, eh? How many times will Godolphin Guy Rick Mettee be asked about that in the run-up to Discreet Cat's scheduled appearance in the Cigar Mile? How anticlimactic and bizarre will that race be at the Chapter 11 Big A?

- Seven other races besides the Classic to discuss, and a lot more about the latter as well. Fortunately, as opposed to the mainstream press, which just cannot effectively deal with eight championship races in one day, we have all week, so we'll try and grind through them all.

Let's Gamble

- A half hour to go until the coverage begins. It's an absolutely gorgeous fall day in New York City, just an ideal day to....

....sit in front of the TV for seven hours??

Oh well. You have to go with the weather you have, not the weather you wish you had.

The buildup on ESPN this week has been intense as promised by, so I was somewhat hasty in jumping on the network's case. I still would like to see an effort to establish the Breeders Cup as a brand and an important network property in addition to the week-long promotion blitz; but hopefully with the new Breeders Cup Challenge series, there will be an effort to do just that; as well as getting new viewers to not only watch, but be active participants.

But more on this another time. As Joe Mantegna said in David Mamet's overlooked gem Things Change, "Let's gamble." Have a great, great day.

NYRA Gets Cash Call

- NYRA limps on with an $8 million loan, at 4% interest, from the State Comptroller's office.

Scott Reif, a spokesman for Gov. George Pataki, said the state's bankruptcy lawyer advised it was "the most prudent course to take to protect the state's assets and its taxpayers and insure the continued racing in New York State." [Albany Times Union]

NYRA said that the money will keep them operating through the end of the year. Bill Nader told the NY Post: "They've already wired the money into our account." Now there, that wasn't so freaking hard, was it?

NYRA was attempting to get the court to approve a $50 million credit line at above-market rates; Matt Hegarty of the Daily Racing Form identified the prospective lender as SB Capital, a New York hedge fund. Just speculating here, but it seems to me that NYRA must have done some kind of selling job to the hedge fund if they are indeed willing to lend them the money. Without at least a reasonable prospect that a) the courts would rule that NYRA owns the land, or b) NYRA retains the franchise and thus, gets the racino built, why would they make such a loan? It's pretty clear at this point that NYRA will never see a penny of casino revenue by December 31, 2007 since everyone agrees that will take a year to build the racino and get it up and running. How would any lender recoup its investment if NYRA goes out of existence with no claim to the land, and with no casino? Hedge funds are prone to take risks to be sure, but they're not in the business of giving money away.

In order for the court to approve that loan, it's quite possible that it would have had to make a ruling on the land as one of the first orders of business. So perhaps the state, despite its insistence that it owns the land, is still hesitant to have that determined by a judge, and stepped in with its loan instead.

Eliot Spitzer, who will become the Governor-elect on Tuesday, reiterated his belief that NYRA's land claim is a sham. "The bankruptcy action and the effort to claim the state does not own the tracks is a canard," said Spitzer spokesman Paul Larrabee. Hearing statements like that certainly do not bode well for NYRA's chances to retain the franchise, considering that Spitzer will ultimately approve the new operator. Nor are statements like this from Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno.

"There's $19 million in cash flow that we legislated, available to them, so what they did I believe was unnecessary and disruptive...The people that made that decision made a bad decision for the people of this state." [Saratogian]

But in the meantime, racing will go on uninterrupted. NYRA officials met with horsemen at the Big A, and trainer Richard Violette told the Form: "It was a short and sweet meeting....The assumption is that it is going to be business as usual. That's the hope." Violette is a VP of the New York Thoroughbred Horseman Association, and a staunch supporter of Empire Racing. Bill Nader had a somewhat different take on the meeting: "We got a very warm reception....Everybody seemed to be behind us."

A spokesperson for the state's Lottery Division told Newsday that the filing prevents the agency from making a decision on the video lottery deal; but they've had the agreement between NYRA and MGM since June without acting on it. And though we reported the other day that bankruptcy lawyers feel that the filing prohibits the state from terminating NYRA's franchise prematurely, some critics believe that NYRA's contract should be ended.

"The governor has every right to take away the franchise right now because of malfeasance," said state Sen. John Sabini (D-Jackson Heights). "The NYRA situation is so broken, I don't see how it could be fixed." [Newsday]

And, while all this transpires, Yonkers Raceway's casino rolls on, even as fire code violations persist, and the November 3 date to resume the racing that is required by law came and went without a sulky in sight. Not only that, the casino will unveil 500 new machines this weekend. Nov 10 was given as the new date to start racing. I wouldn't bet on it. Unbelievable.

Selections and Second Thoughts - Pt 2

Mile

Gorella
Araafa
Echo of Light

I saw that Jerry Brown of Thoroughgraph thinks that Gorella could bounce given her win three weeks ago in the First Lady. I still think she won that race with ease, and just cruised along until midstretch; that's what I see when I watch the race anyway. Echo of Light could be the speed, or maybe Badge of Silver. Since there are no internal fractions on the European horses, we have no idea whatsoever. Another paradox in the world of handicapping, the way we can demand such minutae in some areas, but go strictly on guesswork on others. Anyway, in Nick Mordin's analysis, he says that Echo of Light is four-for-four around left-handed courses.

Distaff

Pine Island
Round Pond
Happy Ticket

I'm liking Round Pond a bit more after reading Matz's comments about the bad foot that hampered her training for the Beldame. You can see the gap in works before the Beldame, as well as the work just a few days before her prior race, a close second in her first race in over five months. She has a similar work for the Distaff, five furlongs in 59 flat the other day, and I can just feel the soothing effects of the Polytrack on her little feet.

Steve Crist also left out Fleet Indian and Balletto in his picks, but said that he wouldn't let either knock him out of anything. I'd say the same about Fleet Indian, but I won't use Balletto on top in any tickets.

Turf

Cacique
English Channel
T H Approval

I like Cacique a lot here. All of the Europeans are question marks here to me. With Hurricane Run, it just doesn't feel right; it seems almost scattershot the way he was sent here so soon after the Champion. I could end up feeling foolish when he wins by five lenghts; or he could be the most vulnerable favorite of the day. Scorpion is the invader that scares me the most, and I'll probably have him on top somewhere or other. TH Approval is getting a lot of support in Europe; he was being quoted at around 12-1 earlier today.

Classic

Bernardini
Sun King
Perfect Drift

It seems a logical case to me to try to make money by leaving out the prospective second and third choices on the theory that Bernardini will be so dominant that the better horses that try to challenge him will be beaten into submission. Thus, you get horses that avoided the frey picking up the pieces at the end. I'll also use David Junior, and, with Patrick Valenzuela replacing John McKee, Lawyer Ron.

So that's it. It's been a lot of writing about a lot of horses both here and in my horse-by-horse previews of the Juvenile, Sprint, Distaff, and Turf that are now up on the website of the Breeders Cup Special (go there and click on 'House of Value' in the column on the right).

Looking at my top picks, they seem a bit chalk-y to me overall. Besides the longshot I selected in the Juvenile Fillies, I picked three likely favorites in Ouija Board, Henny Hughes and Bernardini. I have probable second choices in Pine Island and Gorella, and perhaps Cacique as well. Even Scat Daddy is listed as the second choice, though I think he'll be higher than Principle Secret. So for any talk that may have come from me about this being a day to shoot for the moon was empty I guess. I think that when I look at races for so, so long, I tend to drift towards the more logical conclusions; whereas I can be more spontaneous and creative when handicapping by the seat of my pants.

But there's still money to be made with favorites or second choices on top, with more creative choices filling the bottom of the tickets. Plus I'll be watching the board and making adjustments. I don't at all foresee me jumping onto any horse that I haven't liked up to this point, but I could elevate horses picked for minor awards if there are surprises on the board with horses such as Round Pond and Great Hunter, or if others like Pine Island or Gorella are bet too low. And I'm hoping that I'm in a position of being live with Bernardini in the Pick Four (or even the late double) so that I can fool around a bit in the Classic.

I'm going to stop now. Good luck everybody, and thanks so much for reading and commenting.

Selections and Second Thoughts Pt. 1

- It's been a few days since I started analyzing the races, and though I haven't made any major changes, some of my opinions have evolved, especially in the four races I wrote about for the Breeders Cup Special coming out later tonight.

So I'll go through the races, do a top three selections thing, and express some second and third 17th thoughts.

Juvenile Fillies

Quick Little Miss
Cash Included
Satulagi

I don't really have a strong opinion in this race. Cash Included, I think, will be a solid favorite, but not one that I want to go down with in the first race. So I'll make my wild longshot stab right off the bat. I liked her more seriously before the posts were drawn, and the 13 post definitely hurts. She has seven lengths to make up on Cash Included, but she lost tons of ground last time and closed well. She had a nice work with a strong gallop out the other day. Will probably be caught wide again, but at 30-1 seems worth a shot. As for Satulagi? I dunno, just threw her in; she's bred well to handle dirt.

Juvenile

Scat Daddy
Great Hunter
Street Sense

Street Sense, 20-1 morning line, is one that I'm taking a closer look at. He ran 48.5 feet more than Circular Quay in the Breeders Futurity and lost by a nose. So if Circular Quay is 5-2 as he is in the morning line, don't you just have to like him at 20-1?

I got a glowing report from a knowledgeable observer on the scene on Great Hunter. I'd kinda like to switch and put him on top, but I picked Scat Daddy in the Special. I will have him on top of my tickets in some manner for sure. This is a tough race, and there are other horses I like, including Principle Secret and King of the Roxy. Circular Quay is definitely a win threat, but I think he'll be egregiously overbet, in which case he's worth betting against in a field of this depth.

F&M Turf

Ouija Board
Wait A While
Film Maker

I'll be rooting for Ouija Board; it will be a thrill to watch one of the best horses in the world in action; and one who has traveled all over to meet the biggest challenges the sport can offer. But Wait A While has been a phenom, and a win by this three-year old would be electrifying. I know some have expressed concern over her ability to get the distance, but I don't know about that given the way she's run at ten furlongs. I'll use her in my Pick 3's.

Sprint

Henny Hughes
Thor's Echo
Siren Lure

I've moved Thor's Echo up. I know the sheets guys are expecting him to bounce off his big number chasing Bordonaro in the Ancient Title. But he had a lot of time off after running second at Dubai, and this is his third start of the form cycle. He might be able to suck along the rail, and could provide some value with Henny on top. As for Bordonaro, I'm not going to use him; Bill Spawr seemed hesitant after the Ancient Title, saying that the horse preferred more time off. Having said that, he's never lost in three tries when running back with four weeks off. But that's what the man said, and that's the way he's campaigned him this year. This is a horse I'm clearly looking for excuses to exclude.

I'll be back soon with the final four races.

Overlooking Invasor?

- Nick Mordin is a British handicapper and author, and he has a website in which he peddles his selections for a modest fee. I obtained a copy of his picks and commentary for the Breeders Cup, and it's quite fascinating and opinionated. It's paid content and I do respect that, so I'm just going to reprint a brief excerpt, but I thought you'd find this well worth the read, whether you agree or not.

[Bernardini's] going to have to withstand a challenge from a horse (Invasor) that can make two big moves in a race and then have enough left to run like crazy all the way through the final furlong, a horse that has the speed and stamina to post seriously fast times at every distance from five furlongs to a mile and a half.

Actually I think Invasor will annihilate the Classic field and that Bernardini won't even run second. These days thoroughbreds in general and American ones in particular are so speedily bred that long races really take it out of them, especially when they're only three years of age. It's asking an awful lot to expect one to produce peak performances both in May and then again right at the end of the year at such distances. Sure Sunday Silence, Unbridled and AP Indy all won U.S. classics in the same year that they took this race. But that was way back in 1989, 1990 and 1992 when the breed had far more stamina than it does now. Since then the twelve American Classic winners that have run in the..Classic as three year olds have all lost. The last eight didn't even reach the first three. I wouldn't want to bet on Bernardini ending that particular losing sequence.

Mordin feels that Invasor's Whitney was "one of the most impressive displays I've ever seen from a racehorse." He cites his recovery from the stumble at the start to grab the lead in the stretch, and his ability to, as he saw it, actually accelerate at the end in order to hold off Sun King; last eighth in 12 2/5.

Wow, that's a different opinion than we've been hearing around here for sure. I know that I and some others (but not reader throwaway) are standing against Invasor on the basis of his disrupted training schedule and unwanted layoff. If he had run creditably in Gold Cup, then I wouldn't be comfortable excluding him from my tickets. I watched the Whitney again, and I don't quite see what he did, but as we've recently discussed, different people see different things in the same race, and who's to say he's not right?

NYRA Bankruptcy Filing Mars Big Weekend

- The skies over Louisville are still sunny, and are expected to remain so as the sport moves into its second biggest weekend of the year. Any figurative dark clouds that gather are courtesy of NYRA's filing for bankruptcy on Thursday. It must be a bizarre feeling for those New York regulars who are in Kentucky now. The filing comes one year after NYRA itself hosted the Breeders Cup, and just a few days after the association rejected a loan offer that they termed a double cross and backtrack by the state.

The filing showed that NYRA's financial obligations go far beyond the $19 million they've been bickering over.

The state is owed nearly $100 million from loans and interest, including $13.5 million from Empire Development Corp. and $6 million from the Lottery Division loaned since last year and $76 million the association borrowed over many years from the state Thoroughbred Racing Capital Investment Fund. State taxes of more than $600,000 are owed.

Other big creditors are Nassau County, owed $17 million, and the U.S. Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., owed $12.3 million. [Albany Times Union]

But the most significant part of the filing could very well be the one in which NYRA claimed that they own the land that the tracks sit on, and could sell it for $1 billion.

The filing should get a federal judge to rule on the controversial issue of who owns the tracks the state or NYRA, said NYRA's lawyer Brian Rosen. If the court rules the tracks belong to NYRA, it could borrow against the property or sell it.
.....
Already, Rosen said, a real estate company and a financing firm have partnered as SB Kimco to immediately provide $15 million to NYRA, with another $35 million loan promised as long as the bankruptcy judge allows it.

Besides gaining protection from its creditors, it's also well worth noting that, as the Times-Union piece reports, bankruptcy protects NYRA from being stripped of the franchise before it expires at the end of next year. So much for an early takeover, as some at Empire Racing have hoped for.

NYRA chairman Steve Duncker called the delays in approving the management agreement with MGM "inexplicable."

"It is all the more mystifying given the fact that VLT's have been put in operation at eight non-NYRA tracks around the state." [Daily Racing Form]

The Lottery Division has had the agreement with MGM since June and has failed to approve it. It seems inconceivable that the governor of this state would allow the situation to reach this point. Perhaps they are so confident of a favorable ruling on the land issue that they allowed the situation to proceed to court. If they're wrong, the franchise could be tied up in court for years. For NYRA, this is truly their last stand.

- I'm working today on some Breeders Cup race previews for Sean and Joe Clancy's Breeders Cup Special, so posting here will be light at best for a few more hours at least. I think I've said enough about these races anyway; we all have at this point. Let's get to the action already. But in reviewing the races again, I've of course come up with some additional insights.....and likely with far too much information. So I will be back a bit later with some second thoughts, and my final picks.

The Breeders Bowl

- Hank Goldberg was just in the booth for the Louisville-West Virginia game, and they were talking up the Breeders Cup. When asked if he was more excited about this game or Saturday's races, he said that the Breeders Cup is like eight bowl games on the same day; nice set-up there. They've had a couple of live shots from a lit-up Churchill Downs, and a Breeders Cup Preview is promised for half time.

- It seemed a bit strange seeing the Form for the Breeders Cup with the horses listed in post position order after getting so used to seeing them listed alphabetically. I have to get used to looking at the bottom for Balletto instead of at the top.

With all the excitement about Saturday, the opening of the Cushion Track at Hollywood got overshadowed, but the reactions and quotes are quite familiar, despite the fact that two horses, later determined to be uninjured, were pulled up prematurely. Victor Espinoza said: "Most of the horses I've ridden feel totally different on it. It's more bouncy and the horses have more confidence." [LA Times] Here's an interesting quote by trainer Mark Glatt:

“What I've seen is that minor inflammation in joints, since I've trained here, has gone away, versus Del Mar this summer where those problems would have continued on....I have to believe it's much kinder because I'm seeing some minor problems go away, almost to the point of being nonexistent.” [SignOnSanDiego.com]

An interesting disparity in results; Wednesday's races were dominated by closers and it looked like it was Keeneland all over again. But today's resuls instead favored speed and close to the pace, which raises the question whether any adjustments were made.

But it's almost scary the way all of the artificial tracks thus far have received such effusive praise with nary a disparaging word. And Cushion Track - just the name makes me feel all bouncy and playful. It's starting to remind me of that Twilight Zone episode when the smiling aliens came to Earth with a book written in some Alienese entitled "To Serve Mankind," and as the stupid humans were loading onto spaceships to visit their planet, the interpreters discovered that it was a cookbook. Let's hope that the era of synthetic tracks doesn't end with Rod Serling leaning against the sixteenth pole. "Little did they know that they were racing..straight into......."

- Halftime, and I had to endure Lou Holtz, who makes me sick, in order to get to a brief pre-recorded segment with Randy Moss and Kenny Maine, who said with his characterstic smirk that all of "OO-ruguay" will go crazy if Invasor wins. Randy Moss said that Kiaran McLaughlin is confident with Invasor and feels that Bernardini's post position may make him vulnerable.

Notes - Nov 2

- Tom Albertrani is unfazed by Balleto's outside post draw, and blames her close losses on her difficulty in changing leads.

"Because she has that tendency of just wanting to hesitate a little bit in her races, it causes her to lose that momentum she needs that makes the difference between losing and winning by a head or so. It might have cost her a couple of races this year." [Bloodhorse]

However, despite that, it still seems to me that she had Spun Sugar and Fleet Indian absolutely dead to rights, and I wonder if the issue is more in her head than her legs. But having said that, it seems to me that she and Pine Island are the horses with the most upside in the race.

- Steve Davidowitz has some tips on identifying false favorites in his latest column in the Form's paid DRF Plus section, and talks about the Juvenile:

The favorite may have no discernible edge over a field loaded with fit and ready rivals.

In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, for example, morning-line favorite Circular Quay and second choice Principle Secret are both promising youngsters with good efforts at the Juvenile's 1 1/16-mile distance. But there is little separating them from a large contingent of lightly raced, improving contenders. These include graded stakes winners Great Hunter, Scat Daddy, King of the Roxy, and Stormello, as well as graded-stakes-placed Pegasus Wind, C P West, and Street Sense. Given the depth of competition, taking anything less than 5-1 on either Circular Quay or Principle Secret would seem to violate all sensible rules of value betting.

I know a lot of people, including myself, who will be happy if Perfect Drift's trainer Murray Johnson is prophetic about the odds for the Classic.

"For him to be even money he'd have to have such a huge percentage of the pool....I think he'll be 2-1 or better. But then you're getting fantastic prices with horses like Suave (30-1) and Perfect Drift." [Louisville Courier-Journal]

Whoa, 2-1? Or better? I'd take some of that action, wouldn't you?

The Classic

- "Go Bernardini!!!" wrote Walter. Right on, I thought when I read that (until I realized that he's saying that at least partly because he has a future bet at inflated odds).

Sometimes I wonder why I am rooting for him to win, and to win impressively. He's owned by a filthy rich sheikh and is probably going to retire after only eight races so he can make even more money. For a man of his means and supposed sporting nature, it seems a small sacrifice to bring him back for one more year. It would cost him less in one year of lost stud fees than he spends in the space of 90 seconds for unproven yearlings at the sales pavilion. The Classic would be a much nicer story if Lava Man won.

But there's something about having the firm knowledge that I was in the presence of true greatness that puts everything else aside. I won't be at the Breeders Cup, but I saw Bernardini (AP Indy) win the Jim Dandy (Galloped under wraps) and Travers (In control, drew off) at Saratoga, and the Jockey Club Gold Cup (Under wraps stretch). I stood on the backstretch of Saratoga and watched him work out twice, even though I didn't know it at the time.

Some people scoff at the notion that a horse that raced only eight times and never conceded weight to opponents could ever be classifed with the great handicaps horses of the all-too-distant past. But greatness comes in different forms. Here in the early 21st century, when it comes to colts anyway, the fleeting form of greatness is the only one we're likely to see. It's fair to question the quality and quantity of who he's been facing, as Scoop did in reaction to a writer speculating that Bernardini could be acclaimed as one of the all time greats. But it was the effortlessness with which he won that made those races so amazing. You just don't see horses dominate Grade 1 horses with that consistency and absurd ease. That's what makes Bernardini great.

Pending the Classic of course.

So how could he lose? Haskin jokingly (I think) presents a scenario in which Kent Desormeaux guns Suave to the lead.

No one is going to be paying much attention to you. Lava Man will be watching for Bernardini, who will be watching Lava Man and Invasor, who will be watching Bernardini and Lava Man. Who would be foolish enough to go after a horse who just finished dead-last in the Woodward (gr. I)? [Bloodhorse]

Ah...not likely.

Somewhat less fanciful is this scenario presented by the Saratogian's Jeff Scott:

It's one thing to run away from an honest but limited horse like Wanderin Boy or an injured Bluegrass Cat. But what if Bernardini has Lava Man stay with him for 9 ½ furlongs, and then has to deal with Invasor -- and maybe Sun King and even George Washington -- over the final sixteenth? What if it turns out there really is a Racing God, and Perfect Drift finally uncorks the big, dramatic finish his fans have been awaiting for the past five years? It could still get interesting.

Could it? One thing for sure, if Bernardini can stalk Lava Man and then ease by him the way he's done to lesser opponents, then he must truly be great. Lava Man (Slew City Slew) is as tough as they come - he literally ran himself into exhaustion last year in the Pacific Classic and had to be vanned off. His brave performance in the Hollywood Gold Cup remains one of the best of the year.

I think that Castellano would do well to try and pilot Bernardini as he did in the Preakness; let Lava Man do his thing, along with Brother Derek, perhaps Suave and Lawyer Ron, and unleash a sweeping burst past the field in upper stretch. I don't think he wants to get involved in a protracted duel with Lava Man. That's the only scenario I can see in which he could possibly lose. I don't think it would be to Lava Man; but rather, they would set the race up for someone else.

I don't like Invasor (Candy Stripes). He suffered a serious setback in training when forced to miss the Gold Cup, and there's no way he could be where McLaughlin would want him to be. I agree with Nick when he wrote that This is a case of we have to run him, its the Breeder's Cup.

Sun King (Charismatic) hasn't run a bad race since turning his career around at Keeneland in April. Unfortunately, he also hasn't won since that day, but he's unleashed his rally every time. As a dead closer, he cedes his ability to control his own fate, but if, by some strange chance, this race falls apart up front, he could be the prime candidate to pass them all.

David Junior (Pleasant Tap) hasn't raced since taking the Eclipse Stakes in July, and he'll retire to Japan after this race. We know that he's bred to handle the dirt - his half brother Kid Carousel is a winner on the dirt, and he's out of an Irish River half sister to Wild Event. But I think he's more bred for the grass; this is the direct family of Paradise Creek and Theatrical. I have no clue how he'll do on the dirt, and neither do you I don't believe, but he's a high-quality horse running at his best distance.

Premium Tap (Pleasant Tap) seems to be a wise-guy horse based on his improvement in the Woodward, and the 5th in the Kentucky Cup that can be easily explained away. I think it's a stretch, despite the fact that he beat Sun King in the Woodward. Perfect Drift (Dynaformer) closed in 11.4 to get second despite being blocked at the eighth pole in the Kentucky Cup; and as we know, in his prior race, the track at Del Mar was tailored to his detriment for the Pacific Classic. Starting with his first Classic in 2002, he's finished 12th, 6th, 4th, and 3rd. What kind of exacta would he create behind Bernardini?

Giacomo (Holy Bull) is one-for-one at Churchill. George Washington (Danehill) is getting a little vacation abroad before beginning his stud career. Think of how much money they're leaving on the table by not running in the Mile.

Likes: Go Bernardini!!!

Against: As much as I admire Lava Man and I think he'll most definitely be a factor, he'll be facing the direct wrath of Bernardini, and as second choice no less. If the latter really has the extra gear that he's hinted at so strongly, Lava Man could well finish clear out of the money. Also don't like Invasor, George Washington, Suave, Brother Derek, Giacomo. If any of those finish in the money I likely won't win.

Exotics: I'm thinking that I'll try to make some money using Bernardini on top with Sun King, Perfect Drift, David Junior, and thinking about Premium Tap.

Fair Skies Coming

- The track was sealed and sloppy at Churchill today, but it's supposed to be gorgeous tomorrow straight through for the big day, according to weather.com.

Despite the forecast, I have to say that I'm rather shocked that they ran two races on a turf course labeled 'yielding' today They would never do that here in NY on Breeders Cup week; they'd go off-the-turf if the jockeys were sweating too much.

- On The Works, Lava Man galloped on the turf today rather than brave the sloppy track. David Junior wasn't sweaty. CP West got a bad review for his gallop; Tom Amoss noted that the horse had a quick work the other day - five furlongs in 1:00.29 with a full gallop out around the turn - and implied that it took something out of him. The boys were liking Too Much Bling.

- ESPN will crank up their promotional efforts tomorrow night during the college football game in Louisville during which they'll be live shots from Churchill Downs. I wonder if somebody, somewhere, actually had the foresight to schedule the game there this week. Or if it's just a coincidence. I'll assume it was the former.

Greg Avioli told Ruben Bailey that he gives ESPN an 'A' for their marketing efforts. I do really want to believe that, and I'll check out the college game tomorrow as long as Suzy Kolber isn't there.

ESPN will add some new graphics, including the virtual yard markers on the track that we see used in Europe, where the coverage is miles above what we have here. Perhaps someone there has watched some of the European coverage, and if so, we'll be better off for sure.

Trevor Denman should be a great addition for fans and newcomers alike. Denman has managed to stay fresh for two decades now, and I can't think of any other announcer I could ever say that about; even for half that time in many cases. When Durkin first started on NBC, his race calls were one of the specific reasons that I'd be excited for the day. Though I still think he's a top announcer, I can't say that's been the case the last few years. But Denman is definitely an extra reason to watch.

Post Positions Drawn

- Here are the fields courtesy of the Form.

A brief look at some winners and losers by race.

Juv Fillies: Favorites Cash Included (3-1) and Dreaming of Anna (4-1) drawn snugly inside. A couple of longer shots that I like, Quick Little Miss (30-1) and Her Majesty (10-1) didn't fare quite as well.

Juvenile: OK draws for all of the main contenders. Pegasus Wind will have to clear some speed inside of him from the ten.

F&M Turf: Two post for Ouija Board, nice.

Sprint: Nice draw for Henny Hughes (2-1). He should be able to settle in nicely behind Bordonaro and perhaps Thor's Echo breaking from the rail.

Mile: Librettist (6-1) and Aussie Rules (10-1) may be the biggest losers of the day. Gorella (4-1) should be OK from the 12 considering her style; but a great draw for Araafa.

Distaff: 8-5 on Fleet Indian? I'll take 5-1 on Pine Island for sure. Balleto draws the outside but should be OK for her late run. Not so for Happy Ticket from the 13.

Turf: It's a ten [oops!] 11 horse field at a mile and a half, so post position may not matter too much. But there could be significance in Cacique (4-1) drawing inside of English Channel (7-2). The horses are so close that every little bit counts. In the Arlington Million, Cacique broke one stall inside of English Channel and used that advantage to establish early position that Pletcher's horse never overcame.

Classic: What difference does it make? Slight negative for Invasor breaking from #11.

Wednesday Morning Notes - Nov 1

- NYRA, if they still exist by then, will run four Grade 1's on the first Saturday of next year's Saratoga meet in cooperation with the Breeders' Cup "win and you're in" Challenge. The Grade I races to be held that day are the Whitney Handicap (winner qualifying for the Breeders' Cup Classic), Go for Wand (Distaff), Alfred G. Vanderbilt (Sprint) and Diana (Filly & Mare Turf). [Albany Times Union]

- Post positions will be drawn at 11:15 today (Wednesday). No live coverage on ESPN, but they will have a one hour Today at the Breeders' Cup on ESPN2 at 2 PM. ESPN and Breeders Cup officials were talking it up yesterday. Breeders Cup interim CEO Greg Avioli said: "The decision to go to ESPN was not a ratings-based decision," he said. "It was designed for significantly more promotion over the months leading up to the Breeders' Cup to grow the property." [Louisville Courier-Journal] You can decide for yourself if that's been the case. But for next year, ESPN is in on the Breeders Cup Challenge, and will televise all six dates.

"As opposed to having 80 or 90 or 100 good hours of horse racing that's nice but disparate, let's tie it together," [ESPN VP Len] DeLuca said of the network's strategy to both acquire the Cup and create the Cup Challenge. "Let's create a season." [Lexington Herald Reader]

- Seems as if Dubai Escapade wouldn't have run even if she didn't have inflammation in her ankle, because they're both owned by one of the sheikhs or another; i can't really keep up with which sheikh is which these days. But somewhat overlooked in Discreet Cat's avoidance of Bernardini is the fact that the sheikh's brother's Invasor will take on the big guy. Do you think he'd be running if the Head Sheikh really though he had a chance to upset Bernardini?

- The NY Post reports today that NYRA has not yet officially responded to the state's offer to parcel out the $19 million in installments.