Not Negotiable

Here's a link to a letter that Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver has written to Governor Paterson regarding his insistence that the conditions for his approval of Aqueduct Entertainment Group's racino deal at the Big A be adhered to without conditions.

Referring perhaps to the article in the Las Vegas Review-Journal that I linked to the other day (or perhaps to this blog itself!), in which Navagante Group president Larry Woolf spoke of up to two months of negotiations which will include the matter of the "payment structure" of the $300 million fee, Silver writes:

Recently, however, I have read press reports quoting partners in AEG who assert that the aforementioned conditions will now be part of an MOU “negotiation.” Let me reiterate – in the event our conversation and my letter were not absolutely clear – the following four conditions are not negotiable.

One, that the up-front licensing fee must be $300 million and that said fee must be received by the State prior to March 31st.

The other conditions deal with licensing of all parties connected to the group, using the "footprint" of the original MGM plans, and that any changes be approved by the Lottery Division and all three leaders.

How Does It Look?

Danny Hakim reports in the Times this morning that Governor Paterson met with the Rev. Floyd Flake on Monday morning and sounded him out about his political support.

Despite the statement by the governor’s spokeswoman that an endorsement had not come up, Mr. Flake said that he and the governor agreed that because of the Aqueduct deal, “it would probably be more difficult to make the endorsement.” And, he added, “we did discuss how that might look to other people.”

As you may know, Flake is an investor in Aqueduct Entertainment Group.

How might that look? Let's see. According to Hakim, the meeting was the first between the two in the two years since Paterson became governor. It came on the very first business morning after the governor made the Big A announcement under the relative press shroud of a late Friday afternoon; which, in turn, came a week after Flake told the Times that Andrew Cuomo would "be a great governor.” And that was a sudden turnaround for Paterson after months of delay during which, according to many press reports, he held out steadfastly for SL Green.

Whatsmore, Hakim reports:

In fact, the Aqueduct Entertainment Group received poor ratings in a ranking of the bidders compiled by the state’s Lottery Division, according to several people with knowledge of the process. The Lottery Division refused to release the document or make its director, Gordon Medenica, available for comment.

That beside the fact that AEG was offering $100 million less that the top bidder.

So, how does it look?

Susan Lerner, executive director of Common Cause New York, a government watchdog group, said the meeting between Mr. Paterson and Mr. Flake “raises a red flag.”

“What’s amazing to me as an observer of what goes on is the blatancy of it,” she said.

Aqueduct Wednesday

I've been having a tough time finding races and horses I like at Aqueduct lately. For one thing, the menu is limited for me since I don't touch maiden claiming races; and I'm not crazy about those state-bred 15K claimers for winners either. That criteria sometimes leaves me with only six, perhaps even just five races to choose from.

I pored over the five eligible races (oh yeah, I can't get a handle on Starters Handicaps for grey horses either) for Wednesday, and nothing jumped off the page. I should probably leave well enough alone. But no.

The sixth is a wide-open 7500 claiming sprint, and a few horses quoted generously in the morning line have recently run well at this level and seem worth a mention. Baroness (15-1) takes a big drop after trailing throughout in 18K company. This mare improved markedly after adding blinkers and dropping in class for trainer Oscar Barrera Jr.; she won going away at this level over the main track on Nov 8....and progressed from there with a close second for 12.5. Two subsequent inner track tries have been disappointing, but significant class relief here, and she has run well over the surface in the past. OSB Jr has just one winner in 14 races at the Big A, but it came on Jan 24 with a horse with a very similar pattern to this one. Vinnie's Wild Tale had also been moved up to a level which seemed inappropriate and ran that way; but with his claiming tag sliced in half to 10K next time, he won by two. Hoping for some speed in here to help get Baroness into the picture late.

Only a Vision (6-1) had a three-race winning streak over the summer/fall, and won for as much as 12.5K. She then tailed off, and disappointed as the favorite when dropped to this level off a seven week freshening last month. Maybe she didn't like the sealed track; last year here, she followed a dismal performance over that kind of surface with an easy win at the same level. So I'll look for similar improvement here (assuming the track is not sealed; there is some light snow in the area early this morning). I liked Tiffany Rock (12-1) moving up off the claim for Toscano in her last, at a time when the barn was on a little streak. However, she was dead on the board, and on the track, trailing most of the way. Can't find an excuse for that effort, even though she was moving up in class. But gets reunited with apprentice rider Angel Serpa, with whom she showed far more pep out of the gate under prior connections, so perhaps can get better dropping back to this level, at which she ran a close second on Nov 29, earning a 70 Beyer which would likely put her right there today. Best of luck and have a great day.

Structuring An Agreement

Larry Woolf, the president of Navegante Group, the gaming component of the winning Aqueduct Entertainment Group bid, told the Las Vegas Review-Journal that the next phase of the process is negotiating a memorandum of understanding with New York's state lottery authorities.

He expects talks will take up to two months with the casino opening coming about six months later.

Part of the negotiations, Woolf said, will be the payment structure of an upfront franchise fee of $300 million, a condition set by the speaker of New York's state Assembly.

Payment structure?? I thought it was same day fed funds, an upfront payment due by the end of the current fiscal year ending March 31? Y'know, like Penn National said they would do. That's the kind of language which makes one feel that they don't have the cash on hand. And the governor said that the talks would take 30 days, not two months. Hmmm, MOU's.....structuring payments....protracted negotiations......this is already starting to sound familiar.

The article also notes that "Several Wall Street analysts were surprised the Aqueduct contract wasn't awarded to a large casino operator." So it's not just us. And there's some speculation of some legal action by the losers, but I agree with this reader, who points out that the state gave fair warning that it would conduct the process by rules which were subject to change at its whim. They all willingly played the game when they thought they could win.

Woolf also says that the first 3,000 machines will be installed within the present plant.

The additional 1,500 games would be added in a new phase, along with additional entertainment amenities and a 300-room hotel.

So, no slots in a box here. We'll just have to agree to disagree on this one. I respect all of your opinions, but I just don't see this kind of complex thriving in Ozone Park. Hopefully, I'll be wrong, and people from around the country will fly into JFK and spend the weekend on Rockaway Boulevard. We'll see.

Winter Sport A Tough Sell

It can't be a good sign at all that the weekend cards at Aqueduct were so very desultory after that extended break during the week preceding. I've always been a fan of winter racing here, but I'm having a really hard time sticking with it at this time. And it didn't help to be at the track on Saturday, when a) the card particularly sucked; and b) the cancellation of live racing steered me toward warmer climes and the far higher quality of racing they attract. Turf racing, cool! Maybe I'm wrong about this, and, in fact, other regulars I've queried haven't expressed the same opinion (at least up until this weekend). But the racing here now seems particularly drab to me this year, even for the heart of the winter.

- Interesting comment on the last post by Steve Zorn.

It actually wasn't the cold, but the track condition that caused yesterday's cancellation. I was talking with Rosie Napravnik this morning, in the warmth of the Belmont training track clockers' stand, and she said that the track material was clumping up and making the surface hazardous. And here I thought we'd finally found track maintenance folks who had a handle on how to keep things going through the winter.

The original explanation was that the racing was canceled due to "extreme cold," but a subsequent press release said merely that racing "has been cancelled [sic] effective after Race 3 on January 30, 2010." Additionally, Jerry Bossert reported in the News: It must have been a close vote as no jockey wanted to comment on the cancellation, including [Ramon] Dominguez.

So it definitely seems as if something was going on that both sides didn't want us to know, so thanks to Steve for pointing that out. NYRA obviously would rather not have questions raised about the safety of its surfaces at this point in time. The problem that he described sounds like something we sometimes hear about on synthetic tracks in cold weather at tracks like Woodbine or Turfway.

Hal Handel did his live chat on Friday, and you can read the transcript here. It covers a wide range of issues and seems worth checking out, though I wouldn't call it a frank and open exchange He did however take a couple of questions about the environmental violations, and when asked about the amount of fines, responded "we do not believe that the reality is even remotely connected with some of the news accounts." And that's the only public statement I've yet seen from the association regarding the matter.

Pletcher won the third with Sharp Instinct ($5.20), and ran 1-2 in the Coyote Lake with Tiger's Rock ($5.30) and favored Nite Light, continuing his torrid pace at the Big A. The Toddster has 23 wins from 52 starters on the inner track (44%), and 36 for 92 (39%) overall since racing switched from Belmont.

At Gulfstream, Bickersons (Silver Deputy) romped in the Forward Gal at 9-1, earning a Beyer of 97. She Be Wild was 5th at 7-5; at least I had that part right, as Sister Resistor, bet heavily to 7-2, far below where you would have expected based on the prices on her as the second leg of daily doubles, was a never-in-it 8th. Joanie's Catch, second in the Old Hat at 48-1, was second here at 51-1. What a race in the tenth as Busca ($12) survived a four-way blanket photo finish after being forced wide turning for home.

Sunday Morning Notes

In the 9th at Gulfstream, the G2 Forward Gal for three-year old fillies, Sister Resistor (6-1) returned to the races last month with a professional-looking allowance win at this route. Daughter of the AP Indy sire Jump Start is two-for-two on dirt and at this mile distance (albeit one of those around two turns); and even her race on a synthetic surface she may not have preferred was an outstanding and absurdly wide third in a key race stakes at Arlington. Tons of class in this one's bloodlines - her third dam is Obeah, the broodmare of such graded winners as the ill-fated Go For Wand, personal favorite Dance Spell, and Discorama. Ailalea (4-1) returns to the races for Pletcher; the Toddster is hitting at 25% (12 for 48) at the Gulf; he had three winners on Friday. Daughter of Pulpit has also shown an affinity for this one-turn mile; two-for-two, including the G3 Tempted at the Big A last fall. (Oddly, she's the first of the six runners that day to run in 2010, though 4th place finisher Tizahit won the Demoiselle in her next start.) She Be Wild (3-1) lays over this field on class off her BC win in this, her 2010 debut. Working like the champ she is for her first race on natural dirt; but the surface change, in my opinion, makes her a routine and unquestioned bet-against as the favorite. Richiegirlgonewild (12-1), Joanie's Catch (20-1), and Criolla Bonita (30-1) ran 1-2-3 respectively in the sloppy track Old Hat at huge odds. All three had legitimate credentials going into that race, and you'd probably feel silly if any of them beat you at the bottom of the exotics.

In the 10th, Musca (6-1) returns to the grass and gets the rail. A change to stalking tactics resulted in him being first under the wire two back at Calder before a DQ for a late bump. May find himself in front early again here in a race without much speed; rates the edge on post position, price, recency and improving form. Sobhy (5-2) runs for a tag for the first time for the Toddster after keeping OK allowance company last fall. Also figures to benefit from a lack of pace in the race; and this barn hits at 27% over the last two years in the first time claiming category. Best of luck and have a great day.

What Cancellation?

Nothing much changed at the Big A when racing was canceled after the third race (after a false alarm as the jockeys huddled and delayed that race) on Saturday. For one thing, half the people probably didn't even notice because you can't hear the PA system just about anywhere there. And besides, no one who did know seemed to care; they were too busy handicapping the third at Gulfstream. Not like in the past, when the announcement would be booming, dramatic, and life-altering, at least for that particular day, with thousands of bettors being abruptly driven out into the street with nothing else to do. A rush to the exits would ensue, lest one would have to stand on a lengthy line to obtain a pass for free admission and program on another day. Now there is no admission charge there anyway. I saw more people reaching for their coats after the 82-1 shot won that Florida race.

Can't say I blame the riders for the cancellation. It is bone-chilling here. I don't know what it is about this particular weather system, but, even acknowledging the winds, it just seems far colder than the 20 degrees it supposedly was today. In fact, I was surprised they raced on Friday, when it wasn't much, if any, warmer.

I didn't much mind; had my $7 Saturday simulcast Form in hand. And as long as people stick around and bet on the simulcast races, NYRA probably doesn't care either. They get the same cut of bets on out-of-town races, don't have to pay out the purses, and don't have to schedule a make-up day. They even got their stakes race in; the Correction was the third race, and congratulations to Richie Munk's Funky Munky Stable, as their Hold That Prospect ($3.80) won for fun. Quite a claim this was for 30K last March. The $39,000 earned in this race covered that; and the horse had won four times for the stable, and trainer Gary Gullo, prior.

When I go out to see live music, I'm often self-conscious about being the oldest person there. Last night at the Mission of Burma show, that wasn't as big of an issue as usual since they've been around for portions of 30 years now. Still, it was obviously still a big difference from the crowd at the Big A the next day. I was getting a bit depressed looking around; it's really not an exaggeration when people speak about how aged the crowds are there. I mean, if half the people there look older than me, you figure that many of them won't be there in 15-20 years....and who is going to replace them? We talk about the future of Aqueduct, and the possibility of it eventually closing in favor of year-round racing at the Shinnecock Casino and Gaming Center at Belmont Park. But it seems to me that winter racing may eventually become extinct as a live sport altogether as the hardcore fans fade away.

And that's something that I imagine will be a subject of the contract talks between the state and Aqueduct Entertainment Group. The latter is surely going to want some kind of assurance for its $300 million that there's not going to soon be a competing full-scale casino 11 miles away in Elmont. Or that they get a piece of the action if there is.

AEG is AOK With Speaker's Demands

The New York Times reports that Jeffrey E. Levine, a partner in the Aqueduct Entertainment Group, confirmed that his company had agreed to all of the conditions set by Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver. And thus, yes, it's true. We have a winner.

Well, probably. There's just the little matter of that contract between AEG and the state which the governor's office hopes to hammer.....in the next 30 days with AEG covering the obligations for the operation of the casino. [DRF] I'm sure that won't be a big deal.

Here's the list of what the Speaker extracted out of the group (those being made public anyway):

* The up-front licensing fee will be increased from $200 million to $300 million.
* The facility will occupy no more space that the previously-approved plans submitted by MGM – before they walked away from the project years ago.
* No approval shortcuts will be allowed.
* All investors and just about anyone else with any responsibilities will have to get a license from the State Division of the Lottery.
* Anyone who has been denied a gaming license in any jurisdiction anywhere in the world can’t have a license.
* Anyone convicted of a felony in the past 15 years – or tax evasion, fraud, “larceny of any sort, theft, misappropriation or conversion of funds” is likewise out.
[Queens Courier]

Tom Precious' story changed with the events throughout the day. He originally reported that sources informed him that Paterson was selecting AEG because he actually did not want them; hoping and believing that the Assembly would balk. But now Precious suggests a reason why AEG may have suddenly become appealing to the embattled governor.

[Rev. Floyd] Flake was most recently in the news suggesting he might support Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to run for governor against Paterson in what promises to be, if it happens, a divisive Democratic primary. Flake, however, did not close the door to supporting Paterson.

Paterson is the state's first African-American governor, and there are signs that a number of key black Democrats are getting set to ask Paterson to step aside for a Cuomo run, possibly as soon as the weekend of Jan. 30. Paterson's poll numbers have been improving, though they are still in the political basement, and Cuomo has five times as much money in the campaign bank as the governor.

A Flake endorsement of Paterson could be used by allies of the governor to slow down Cuomo’s inroads with black Democratic leaders. [Bloodhorse]

As you may know, it had been thought all along that Flake's presence in the group was meant to appeal to Senator Malcolm Smith, so that would be an odd twist. It will certainly be interesting to see what Flake does.

The Times surmises that the jilted bidders could pose a problem.

But the long awaited decision could still run into trouble from rival bidders, including Penn National, which said it was “shocked and dismayed” by the governor’s decision because it had submitted the highest offer for an upfront payment, $300 million. [NY Times]

However, if it's true that AEG has agreed to pay that much (still $70 million short of the Delaware North deal which fell apart), that argument would be partly negated. Still, I for one would like to know just why it is.... and what is so outstanding about AEG's bid.....that the Senate leadership was so adamant and stubborn in its support for a company with no experience operating racinos, a modest portfolio of gambling properties, and which was offering $101 million less than the highest bidder at a time when the state is in dire fiscal straits.

Shoe Gazing

NYRA's Chief Operating Officer Hal Handel (the CEO in waiting in the view of one reader), will be hosting a live web chat tonight; so here's the chance for all you anonymous NYRA-haters to have at him. Here's the link. This is your shot, no excuses (unless you're going to see the legendary Mission of Burma at Bowery Ballroom, as I am).

I'm rather surprised that racing resumed here today given the freezing temperatures and howling winds here in the city today. Things started with a bang as Shoe Babe ($37.60) edged 3-5 favorite Sunday In Malibu in the opener. The winner was shipping in from Philly Park, where she ran in the same 25K NW3L class in her last race, but for a $27,000 purse rather than the $22,000 purse today. What's wrong with that picture?

I'm apparently not the only one who's finding it hard to look past the governor's role in the Aqueduct/NYRA mess; at least according to the local Queens Chronicle.

Though the governor remains unpopular, his favorability ratings are edging up because of his newfound fiscal restraint and focus on ethics reform. But many Queens residents and officials including fellow Democrats such as state Sen. Joe Addabbo Jr. of Howard Beach have had it up to here waiting for Paterson and legislative leaders to pick a vendor for the redevelopment of Aqueduct Race Track.

The ongoing delay saps any support Paterson has here and increases the once-remote possibility that Belmont could see lucrative video lottery terminals installed before Aqueduct. A scenario in which the eastern Long Island Shinnecock Indians could build a racino at Belmont, just over the border in Nassau, seems less the stuff of fiction than it had, as the tribe is racing to win the federal recognition it needs for gaming operations, while the Aqueduct plan remains stuck in the gate in Albany.

Purposively Postulating

Matt Hegarty reported a new spin on the reasons behind the Aqueduct fiasco in the Form the other day.

Several racing officials said that they believed the legislature's delay in selecting an operator for the Aqueduct casino could be influenced by elections scheduled for later this year, citing the campaign contributions that casino and real-estate developers frequently make during election cycles. By delaying a decision, politicians can milk contributors until the election is over.

That's a harsh accusation which apparently was purposively planted in racing's Paper of Record by someone from the racing side. It speculates that public officials would hold the fiscal health of the state and the livelihood of thousands subordinate to the interests of their own political careers. And it hints at conspiracy and collusion as well. Sounds rather illegal, actually.

However, as I've said, given the lack of any reasonable explanation whatsoever why this is still dragging on without any resolution in sight, any speculation within the broadest parameters of reasonableness are perfectly fair. And I think that this particular postulation definitely qualifies as such.

- In his letter to Governor Paterson, Penn National's CEO Peter Carlino offered a theory of his own.

Since we are the high bidder, and have more experience in successfully developing and operating these types of integrated racing and gaming facilities in high tax jurisdictions, it would almost appear that some might be trying to find ways to not award this contract to Penn. I am sure that is not the case, but as you know, we have very little to go on except what we read in the press, or pick up in the halls in Albany.

I am sure that is not the case, heh heh, I'm so sure.

This reader pointed out that the letter implied that it has been the highest bidder all along...and that the claim is not true....at least according to the news reports that pegged the company's initial bid at $5 million upfront. In this post, I characterized it as a "token offer" to put them in the game in case the others self-destructed. And in a sense, that's kind of where the company is trying to position itself today, albeit with an additional $296 million in hand. Not that (all) of the others have self-destructed. But the two main contenders have connections that could make their selection problematic in appearance (at least). On the other hand, Penn National, in addition to touting its high bid and ample experience, is portraying itself as the "'safe choice' or compromise candidate," as an official of the company told me via email. "We have nothing in our closet regarding any NY connections."

As for the "slots in the box" argument, I guess I'm really not sure exactly what the phrase means. A reader brought up Finger Lakes in making the case against them. For one thing, a look at their weekly figures [PDF file] year over year doesn't seem to support the idea that its customers are going elsewhere. In addition, I looked at their website, and they have, in addition to slots, the usual dining and entertainment thing going on. So, if that's "slots in a box," isn't too the wildly successful facility at Yonkers, where, according to the OTB Task Force report, some $6 billion of the $11.5 billion wagered on VLT's in the state in 2009 was handled? My take is that the same format would certainly be successful at the Big A (many people assume that it will fare even better than Yonkers), and that it's of an appropriate scale for the neighborhood.

Fixing Broken Model Quite a Task

Got an email on Monday morning advising interested media types (like, I guess, myself) of the live webcast of that afternoon's meeting of the NYCOTB board of directors.

The New York City Off-Track Betting Corporation convenes its board of directors to provide an update of cash flow, headcount reduction and plans for shutdown by end of March if re-organization plan is not approved by Legislature.

Seems appropriate to me that the message came from Edelman, their public relations firm, because the ensuing announcement that the OTB will close its doors on March 30 if lawmakers don't approve its reorganization plan smacks more of PR than reality to me. Can't help but suspect that it's a ploy to get the legislature to focus on its plight, similar to the one engineered by Mayor Bloomberg which led to the state takeover of NYCOTB. Perhaps they are afraid that the bankruptcy court ruling on NYRA's motion to dismiss their bankruptcy filing will not go their way?

There's no word as to whether Edelman will be dispensed along with their employees. (OK, I know I just occasionally tend to harp on certain matters, but I find the fact that this bankrupt organization is employing a high-priced PR firm to be outrageous and disingenuous, at best. This is a legal and legislative matter of crucial importance to the state's racing industry, not a matter on which to trifle with public opinion. And besides, it's a waste of money they supposedly don't have. As bad a reputation as NYRA may have these days, I don't sense an ounce of sympathy for OTB from the media or horseplayers, and certainly not from the Task Force discussed below nor the legislators who grilled Sandy Frucher at the hearing in Lower Manhattan last week. Even the needy NYRA managed to scrounge up 5,000 bucks to send to Haiti; OTB's best PR move might be to send the money they're pissing away on a lost cause to that relief effort instead.)

As you may have read, shortly thereafter, the report of the Task Force on the Future of Off-Track Betting In New York State was released. It's not exactly sympathetic to NYCOTB, making clear its annoyance at the fact that it was the only OTB that declined to participate in its study, calling its abstinence "especially regrettable." Nor did it think much of the core of its reorganization proposal.

The Task Force does not support the OTBs recommendation that statutory amounts be paid only after payment of all OTB operating expenses. If this was adopted, there would be little incentive for the OTBs to reduce overhead. This would also result in the perverse outcome of out of State tracks receiving guaranteed payments while in State tracks would have to depend on the profitable operations of the OTBs. A distribution formula such as this seems to contradict Section 518 of the Racing Law that requires that off-track betting be conducted in a manner compatible with the well-being of the State’s horse racing and breeding industry.

You can see the report in its entirety here [gigundo PDF file]. I highly recommend that you read it if you are at all interested in the present, and what we hope is the future of horse racing in this state. Don't be put off by the 197 pages; the main body of the report runs around 36, and can easily be completed during the morning commute. Well, mine anyway. True, it could have used a little proofreading (by the way, I'm available, and yes, I proof others' work better than I do my own). But it's a comprehensive account of the situation which makes sensible recommendations with a nod towards the reality of the situation. Yes, everyone knows that the ideal goal is to consolidate the tracks with off-track betting. But this report acknowledges the sad truth that it's not going to happen.

If off-track betting was being created now, the present structure of six regional corporations, independently operated tracks, with racing regulated by one State agency and VLT’s by another, would not be the ideal plan. However, the political reality is that this will likely not change. Several commissions and task forces have recommended structural changes to the system without ever being acted on. Regional off-track betting is here to stay, so the question becomes how to optimize its operations.

And as with other reports of this sort, I particularly enjoy the historical accounts. I always find it instructive to review just how we got into the situation presently being assessed.

One of the many interesting items in the report may perhaps shed some light on OTB's threat of supposed impending insolvency. It concerns the accounting rules (GASB 45) which require the OTB's to record its future post-employment benefit programs as a current expense instead of deferring it until the time they are paid.

NYCOTBs reported accumulated deficit at the end of 2008 was $248.7 million, almost $200 million of that is caused from unfunded post-employment retirement benefits for its employees.
.....
The reporting of the GASB 45 expenses by NYCOTB is technically the reason that it has been required to file for bankruptcy protection. If NYCOTB had continued to record the costs only when paid, it could have continued to appear financially distressed, not insolvent..

Of course, I'm speculating and could be wrong. Not that that would change the long-term fundamentals of the overall situation, but maybe they are truly running out of cash. In that case, perhaps Edelman can earn their money and set us straight.

As for the report's recommendations, Tom Precious has a good summary of the key points, so I'll let him do my job for me (or you can read them on pages 33-37 of the report. There's a lot more here to discuss than I can fit in one digestible post, so I hope to revisit the subject over the next few days.

Out Of Words

I really don't know what to say anymore about Aqueduct. I'm out of adjectives. At one time or another, I'm sure I've used words like stupid, ridiculous, ludicrous, absurd, idiotic, nonsensical, bizarre.... What else is there to say that's within the bounds of decency? Here we are, approaching the end of January, and there's just nothing going on at all. The grapevine is silent; we don't even see much in the way of those news stories which tell us that there's no news. The whole thing is just......well, you know. Dumb and dumber, how about that?

The only item I have seen in the press recently is James Odato's note the other day that Penn National wrote to the governor complaining that the unknown manner in which bids are being weighed fuels "rampant rumors and gossip;" any of which are totally fair game at this point. You wanna tell me that there's a conspiracy to shutter the place, sell it off to developers and move on to a casino at Belmont; or that gaming interests from neighboring states are making secret deals to forestall the project entirely; or that Obama wants the property to establish a sovereign socialist enclave from where he can carry out his evil government takeover of health care AND EVERYTHING YOU OWN with impunity...and who am I to argue?

And what about Penn National? No conflicts of interest (that we know of), a solid balance sheet, $301 million cash upfront, no busted real estate deals (read here about SL Green losing its entire $200 million investment in the collapsed Stuyvesant Town deal), a plan to open in 10 months. The community doesn't like its "slots in a box?" Does the community really know what it wants, or what is good for it? Would they rather have nothing? Or some grandiose complex totally inappropriate for a working class neighborhood which is impracticably located via mass transit for most of the city and its suburbs? I remain neutral and open-minded on this (mostly because we really have little idea about what exactly has been proposed in what has been a secretly fluid process); but doesn't Penn National provide an easy solution? If the governor and the legislative leaders aren't enthusiastic about them, isn't that a good thing?

As you may know, I've been a big supporter of the governor; but his floundering, lack of leadership, and broken promises on this matter are hard for me to look past. With all indications pointing to a primary challenge by Andrew Cuomo, Paterson better move quickly to clean up this mess if he wants an endorsement from this corner.

Back with the latest on NYC OTB soon.

Greek From Nowhere

I can't believe how far back Ron the Greek ($17.60) was at the top of the stretch in the Lecomte; did you see that? The race chart has him 15 lengths out after 3/4 of a mile; according to Formulator, he ran the subsequent quarter-mile-plus-40 yards faster (25.27 seconds) than he did the preceding quarter (25.28). Some serious late running there to earn a Beyer of 90, by far his career best.

This colt, by the AP Indy sire Full Mandate, is closely related to last year's Illinois/Tampa Bay Derby winner Musket Man, third in the Derby; their dams are full sisters, both by Fortunate Prospect out of Flambeau, an unraced Dixieland Band mare. Ron the Greek is judged, at least by his dosage index (3.0), to have more distance ability than Musket Man (by Yonaguska) (4.0).

Full Mandate stands for $5,000 at Hartley DeRenzo in Florida, also home to The Green Monkey. This is apparently a stud farm with a sense of humor. Note the blurb on The Green Monkey's Stallion Register page:

World Record Setter.
THE ONE
THEY ALL
WANTED

I wonder how many want him now.

Another winner for Pletcher at the Big A on Sunday. The Toddster now has 21 winners from 49 starters (43%) since racing switched to the inner track in December. Hour Glass ($5.50, 93 Beyer) was making her first start for the barn; nice looking four-year old now has three winners and two seconds from five starts. She's a daughter of Petionville out of a Tale of the Cat mare who's a half-sister to the graded winners Miss Indy Anna and Time Limit.

Got emails from a couple of people who were suspicious about the little break in racing at Aqueduct this week; no racing until Friday. But no, it's not an austerity budget. It's on my New Year Day calendar, and it makes up for the racing conducted on the Wednesdays after MLK Day and Presidents Day, when the track would normally be dark.

Sunday Morning Notes

I'm still just getting back into the racing scene after a few months of distractions, but mostly regarding the local races. So it was with some surprise at the Big A on Saturday when I looked at the then-upcoming 7th at Fair Grounds and saw a couple of last year's Triple Crown participants running in the Louisiana Handicap. Considering Friesan Fire's disappointing return in December, and figuring that General Quarters was just a horse for a couple of courses, I immediately plotted my usual contrarian wise guy strategy. I liked Good and Lucky, and figured I'd slyly leave the two abovementioned horses out entirely and use Secret Getaway underneath.

But when I looked at the exacta pools, even though Secret Getaway was a distant 4th choice in the race at 4-1, the exacta with him under Good and Lucky was paying only $17, as opposed to $20-$21 with the other two, even though they were both hovering around 2-1 close to post time. The pools in exotics can sometimes tell a whole different story from the win pools. I remember those "chartist" guys who used to walk around the NYRA tracks and Roosevelt and Yonkers with clipboards, meticulously tracking the exacta payoffs to find some hidden trends. Don't know if they even bothered looking at the pp's. Don't see those guys anymore; probably home doing the same on their computers.

Anyway, due to those prices, I stayed away and was spared from both financial loss and humiliation, as Friesan Fire and General Quarters ran 1-2; so much for that! The winner earned a Beyer of 104, which equaled his career best, earned on a sloppy track in the Louisiana Derby; in fact, four of his five career wins have now come over the FG track. He had a pretty easy front-running journey against a moderate field; tab to bet against at underlaid odds when he steps back up to legitimate graded stakes company.

Rick Porter retains partial ownership of Friesan Fire (along with Vinery); and he had quite a day as his Winslow Homer took the Holy Bull at Gulfstream (and woo-hoo, let's hear it for that fat $31 exacta over favored Jackson Bend!). Porter seems to find the spotlight every year right about this time, doesn't he? Like his ill-fated Derby runner-up Eight Belles, this horse is by Unbridled's Song. He's out of a graded stakes-winning Summer Squall mare; and his second dam is a half to the Met Mile and Carter Handicap winner Wild Rush.

And by the way, a plug for my buddy DiscreetPicks, who gave out the well-bet Savemyspotimbeting on this site yesterday; he also, on his site, gave out the abovementioned Winslow Homer ($9.60), Annihilation ($12.80) at FG, and Art Currency ($5.20) at SA; four out of five on the day, not too shabby.

And that's it, four hours to kickoff, isn't it time for the pre-game show already?!?

Saturday Morning Notes

Kiaran McLaughlin is another guy winning at an alarming rate at the Big A; with his two winners on Friday, he's now won four in a row over the last three days, and has nine winners from 18 inner track starters, are you kidding me? And I mentioned Pletcher yesterday - with the win by Irving Rules (an overlaid $8.80), he now has 20 winners from 48 starters (42%). You'll note I wrote "alarming" above, which some may feel is an appropriate description given the fact that one of these guys recently returned from a suspension, and the other has just been slapped with one. I'm sure, of course, that there's nothing wrong going on; after all, they are two of the most respected trainers in the game. But you'd think maybe they'd tone it down a bit!

I was hoping to do a little handicapping for today's races, but the Head Chef made me watch The Hangover last night, so I never got around to it. Yeah, it was funny, and very well done. But it wasn't that funny, did you think? And that guy who played Stu kept reminding me of Todd Schrupp.



No, it's just me, right? Anyway, I kept expecting him to look to the camera, get all dramatic, and go, "And now, here it is! The 2009 Golden Globe Award winner for Best Musical or Comedy..."

Aqueduct Notes (Updated)

How about Frankie Martin, the one-time king of the New York claiming game who recently turned 84 (“Me? Retire?.....What for? I can’t play golf.”), is on a genuine hot streak! Royal Vessel ($18.60) took the 7th at the Big A on Wednesday to give the barn three winners in four racing days (and the lowest odds of the three) (and he took second with Dontquityourdayjob in Thursday's 2nd).

John Toscano is another low percentage barn on a real roll. Amazing how that works out sometimes; this barn had gone 23 races without a win, and now he has three (from seven runners) in the last week after Sinister Storm ($19.20) took the 4th on Thursday.

Steve Asmussen, a high percentage guy, has eight winners from just 23 starters; Saints Alive ($5.30) took the second race, and did you see this one? Ahmed Zayat paid $325,000 for this son of E Dubai in Feb 2008; he graduated here for a $10,000 tag (and went unclaimed).

And then there's the Toddster; 18 winners from 44 starters (41%). In the first on Friday, Irving Rules (2-1) drops in class after fading to 6th against better at Philadelphia; but I think this is the kind of horse you gotta stand against, assuming that he's as well-backed as he figures to be. His only win was a lone speed romp in the slop against state-bred maiden claimers on the main track here; throw that out and there's not much to see. And that win might very well be explained by his 402 Tomlinson. Sure, he could win at 3-2, but I've been opposing favorites like this from the beginning. Whether or not that's a good thing, I can't exactly say.

Missing Link (4-1) also won his only race in the slop, but a couple of differences. For one thing, I think he'd be a fair price at his morning line for the (not so hot) Linda Rice. He also showed some ability in his effort over a fast inner track, in a race that was better than it looks on paper. After a slow start (admittedly a concern here after two straight sluggish beginnings), this son of Northern Afleet was putting in a solid run along the inside when he was steadied around the half mile pole, losing all momentum before finishing with interest to get up for 5th. Drops in class here and should run better with a better start. Corcho (3-1) owns the best fast track Beyer in the field, and comes off a win in the slop for trainer Alan Seewald. Faces possible speed duel with the favorite and Fuzzy's Story.

[Oh man, that's just f$#%&*@g great. Not only did I single out the winner to lose, but it went off at an overlaid price. The hazards of handicapping in advance of the tote board...]

Crap

Catching up a bit, Comptroller Tom DiNapoli says it could take up to a year to complete his audit of NYRA. Of course, if the election results in Massachusetts are any indication, by next January, DiNapoli, up for re-election in November, and his fellow Albany Democrats may have been driven clear out of the country, maybe to Canada or some other godforsaken place with - gasp - universal healthcare; and left affairs to the Republicans, who could very well award the Big A racino to Pfizer.

I dunno, and I don't mean to go off on a tangent or anything, but it just seems to me that when Democrats lose, they're like, oh, yeah, slow down, ooo, it's a wake-up call, we get the message. But when Republicans lose, they're like, oh yeah? Well, fuck you and the votes you rode in on, we're gonna try and obstruct the entire agenda on which you and your clear majorities in the House and Senate were elected, bipartisanship, are you kidding me? And whatsmore, we'll just stand idly by as loonies, morons, and racists succeed in framing the debate with their lies and distortions and slogans for an electorate not the least bit interested in a meaningful discussion of the issues! I've only seen such visceral hatred for a president in cases when he was sending young men off to wars of questionable necessity. This guy was only trying to do something about healthcare. For God's sake.

Oh, am I off the topic? Sorry! The topic is Crap, specifically the horse manure that NYRA is accused of dumping into Jamaica Bay, which, as pointed out by the Times Union's James Odato (who seems to have found a new whipping boy with Bruno out of the picture), is a wildlife refuge and recreation area with sensitive salt marshes and an array of wildlife and birds.

The notice also lists nine violations at Belmont, two at Saratoga Race Course and three at Aqueduct racetrack for compliance issues. Each violation carries a maximum fine of $37,500 per day.

That adds up to a lot of money which NYRA, which has a prior record with waste runoff, can hardly afford.

Worse yet, the accusations come at a time when NYRA is already under attack and can hardly afford anymore bad PR, as unfair as some of the prior criticisms may be. This one stinks, and the association hasn't helped the situation by remaining silent; NYRA declined another request for comment on Wednesday. Instead, I was told that they'll be issuing a "comprehensive statement" regarding all of the accusations. Let's hope that it provides a reasonable explanation, and that it comes soon. This situation is starting to fester.

Gambling Expansion Still Tabled.....For Now

Governor Paterson's budget proposal, which, yes, still actually represents an increase in spending despite the doomsday scenario we've been hearing for months, is light on gambling expansion. With respect to the state's existing racinos (and the big one yet to be built), it provides merely for an extension of hours.

The hour restrictions on the operation of VLT's would be eliminated. The elimination of these restrictions would allow the Division of the Lottery to set hours based on facility utilization. The VLT program is currently limited to operating no more than 16 hours a day, and prohibited from operating after 2:00 AM.

The proposal also lifts all restrictions as to who can sell Quick Draw lottery tickets, and for how long. The way I read it, your local street vendor could now set up a TV screen and sell tickets if they want.

Once you're stooping to counting on those who can't resist the lure of slots at 4:30 AM on a Tuesday morning, it's time to consider other ideas. Gambling revenues always involve a portion of the population who can't help themselves, a fact that many of us, including myself, conveniently overlook. But these new provisions seem designed to take advantage of the most vulnerable amongst us, and those least able to afford it. I personally find them shameful.

The budget document projects that the expanded racino hours will generate some $45 million a year in additional revenues....a sum that a racino at the Big A is projected to raise in around a month and a half, if it's ever approved and constructed.

So no, there's nothing here regarding table games at racinos. However, faced with the proposed cuts to education and healthcare, as well as unpopular tax increases (here's that sugary soda tax again!), I'd be quite surprised if that is not a topic of conversation between now and the budget deadline of April 1 (if the budget is actually finalized by then). And that's especially so given the fact that table games are coming to Pennsylvania and, in response, being considered anew in Delaware. Here's a typical comment from a Pennsylvania legislator, and how long before we hear the exact same words in Albany?

“This is a common sense, bipartisan piece of legislation that makes our gaming facilities more competitive, improves the public’s confidence in gaming, raises money we desperately need in these tough financial times, and – most importantly – helps put thousands of people to work in a brand-new industry." [Philadelphia Business Journal]

Whatsmore, have you guys heard those Mohegan Sun radio ads that taunt New Yorkers for only being able to play slots in their state? "Where's the blackjack tables?" Not in New York. But not for long in my view.

News and Notes For Others Who Don't Care About Horse of the Year

What a race in the second at the Big A on Monday - a total of 55 lengths separated the seven horses who actually finished the race, with no less than 5 1/2 lengths separation between any of them. It's a pretty sad sight; looks like a Martha Coakley campaign rally. At least those all finished though; Freefourme broke down and fell in upper stretch.

Nice run by Stardom Bound at Santa Anita on Sunday, but Chantal Sutherland took the shorter route home and got the money with Pretty Unusual ($61.40). This one-time 40K maiden claimer was far back in her prior two graded stakes tries, but seems improved now at age four. Weird betting race with Justwhistledixie the 2-1 second choice in her first race out west; one of those synthetic subsidies that people should try to take advantage of instead of complaining about.

That's five wins in a row for Quiet Harbor ($39.40), your typical Shug horse who shows slow but steady improvement as a four-year old before blossoming into a graded stakes winner. She's a half-sister to the stakes winning Hunting and the stakes placed Minister's Joy.

Bettors at the Big A drank the Toddster Koolaid and made Citizen's Arrest the 3-5 favorite in the Jimmy Winkfield off a head victory in a maiden special. Not that there was anything else so great in the five horse field, but c'mon. He finished 17 lengths behind Deputy Daney ($16), a now three-for-three son of Officer.

I mentioned trainer Scott Volk on Saturday - and his Awesome Charlie ran a decent third at 11-1 that day. He subsequently had two winners on the weekend, including the handy maiden winner Itsagoodtendollars ($8.60) on Monday, and definitely bears watching at this meet. This colt earned a Beyer of 90. He's a four-year old son of Tale of the Cat out of a Sea Hero mare; and he's from the same distaff family as Tiz Wonderful, a one-time Derby hopeful a few years ago who suffered a career ending injury at Belmont; he stands at Spendthrift Farm in Kentucky. Seems an appropriate name in these days of dwindling stud fees....though I think that anyone who spends the $12,500 fee to breed to this unproven stallion isn't being one at all.

Green Mind

Excuse me if I have other things on my mind this morning. The Jets are going to the AFC Championship game! Say what???



Us experienced Jets fans know very well the feeing that Chargers fans must have had as the third quarter wore on. Having wasted their early field position dominance, and helped to allow their opponent stay in the game with critical mistakes and awful penalties, they must have had the same sickening feeling of impending doom that we all know full well!! Y'know, from back in the Same Old Jets era.









And if that wasn't enough to make my day, after the game I saw Dinosaur Jr, probably my favorite band in the world right about now, absolutely shred the Music Hall of Williamsburg in yet another triumphant appearance, this one with several stunned green-jerseyed fans in attendance. Oh man, doesn't get much better than that! Reminded me of a night in April, 1986....the Rangers, trailing the Flyers 2-1 at the Garden in the third period with their playoff series tied at one, exploded for three goals in 38 seconds to send the Saturday night crowd into an absolute frenzy on the way to a 5-2 win (and an eventual 3-2 series triumph). And after the game, we headed over to Irving Plaza to see the legendary Husker Du, my favorite band at the time (with Dwight Yoakam opening). A memorable sports/music doubleheader, unmatched.....until last night. Dig it!