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Sunday, January 31, 2010

Sunday Morning Notes

In the 9th at Gulfstream, the G2 Forward Gal for three-year old fillies, Sister Resistor (6-1) returned to the races last month with a professional-looking allowance win at this route. Daughter of the AP Indy sire Jump Start is two-for-two on dirt and at this mile distance (albeit one of those around two turns); and even her race on a synthetic surface she may not have preferred was an outstanding and absurdly wide third in a key race stakes at Arlington. Tons of class in this one's bloodlines - her third dam is Obeah, the broodmare of such graded winners as the ill-fated Go For Wand, personal favorite Dance Spell, and Discorama. Ailalea (4-1) returns to the races for Pletcher; the Toddster is hitting at 25% (12 for 48) at the Gulf; he had three winners on Friday. Daughter of Pulpit has also shown an affinity for this one-turn mile; two-for-two, including the G3 Tempted at the Big A last fall. (Oddly, she's the first of the six runners that day to run in 2010, though 4th place finisher Tizahit won the Demoiselle in her next start.) She Be Wild (3-1) lays over this field on class off her BC win in this, her 2010 debut. Working like the champ she is for her first race on natural dirt; but the surface change, in my opinion, makes her a routine and unquestioned bet-against as the favorite. Richiegirlgonewild (12-1), Joanie's Catch (20-1), and Criolla Bonita (30-1) ran 1-2-3 respectively in the sloppy track Old Hat at huge odds. All three had legitimate credentials going into that race, and you'd probably feel silly if any of them beat you at the bottom of the exotics.

In the 10th, Musca (6-1) returns to the grass and gets the rail. A change to stalking tactics resulted in him being first under the wire two back at Calder before a DQ for a late bump. May find himself in front early again here in a race without much speed; rates the edge on post position, price, recency and improving form. Sobhy (5-2) runs for a tag for the first time for the Toddster after keeping OK allowance company last fall. Also figures to benefit from a lack of pace in the race; and this barn hits at 27% over the last two years in the first time claiming category. Best of luck and have a great day.


Dirty Shirt said...

I finally got around to creating my own racing blog. It's probably a little too West Coast for most here. You can at least flame me for all the stupid shit I've said on here. But I do give out winners on occasion. Good luck today.

Anonymous said...

You want to try and beat that filly again? It looked like there were several interesting contenders but it turned into a rout.


jamesp said...

Good job with Musca there bud, who did just what you said and paid $12, a nice price any day of the week.

And congrats on doing what you do best in the race before: You tossed out the even money favorite with aplomb and without hesitation, Breeders Cup or no Breeders Cup. She was up the track.

To us coupla-bucks-at-a-time people, spotting beatable favorites is the single most important betting angle there is, with a chance to make a nice little collection now and again, which you need to do in this game if you wanna keep coming back to the well for another drink.