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Friday, January 22, 2010

Aqueduct Notes (Updated)

How about Frankie Martin, the one-time king of the New York claiming game who recently turned 84 (“Me? Retire?.....What for? I can’t play golf.”), is on a genuine hot streak! Royal Vessel ($18.60) took the 7th at the Big A on Wednesday to give the barn three winners in four racing days (and the lowest odds of the three) (and he took second with Dontquityourdayjob in Thursday's 2nd).

John Toscano is another low percentage barn on a real roll. Amazing how that works out sometimes; this barn had gone 23 races without a win, and now he has three (from seven runners) in the last week after Sinister Storm ($19.20) took the 4th on Thursday.

Steve Asmussen, a high percentage guy, has eight winners from just 23 starters; Saints Alive ($5.30) took the second race, and did you see this one? Ahmed Zayat paid $325,000 for this son of E Dubai in Feb 2008; he graduated here for a $10,000 tag (and went unclaimed).

And then there's the Toddster; 18 winners from 44 starters (41%). In the first on Friday, Irving Rules (2-1) drops in class after fading to 6th against better at Philadelphia; but I think this is the kind of horse you gotta stand against, assuming that he's as well-backed as he figures to be. His only win was a lone speed romp in the slop against state-bred maiden claimers on the main track here; throw that out and there's not much to see. And that win might very well be explained by his 402 Tomlinson. Sure, he could win at 3-2, but I've been opposing favorites like this from the beginning. Whether or not that's a good thing, I can't exactly say.

Missing Link (4-1) also won his only race in the slop, but a couple of differences. For one thing, I think he'd be a fair price at his morning line for the (not so hot) Linda Rice. He also showed some ability in his effort over a fast inner track, in a race that was better than it looks on paper. After a slow start (admittedly a concern here after two straight sluggish beginnings), this son of Northern Afleet was putting in a solid run along the inside when he was steadied around the half mile pole, losing all momentum before finishing with interest to get up for 5th. Drops in class here and should run better with a better start. Corcho (3-1) owns the best fast track Beyer in the field, and comes off a win in the slop for trainer Alan Seewald. Faces possible speed duel with the favorite and Fuzzy's Story.

[Oh man, that's just f$#%&*@g great. Not only did I single out the winner to lose, but it went off at an overlaid price. The hazards of handicapping in advance of the tote board...]


Unknown said...

re: John Toscano

It is odd how stables can go through an apparent 'cold' spell then just like that the winners start coming through. It may be a coincidence or there may be something in it but it is certainly something to be aware of....

frank mitchell said...

One of the problems in evaluating "cold" or "hot" streaks is that all of us take samples that are too small. It's one of the great quirks of this game that we try to assess success or lack of it by the proportions of victories from a piddling number of starts.

The results are streaky because they are the results of statistical probability, not predictability.

My cure: go and bow to the great god Ainslie, then handicap like hell.


DiscreetPicks said...

I have a strong play @ Gulfstream that i'll post around 1:00 Eastern tomorrow. No promises of course, but it's a good play. Unfortunately, Mike Welsch has kind of let the cat out of the bag.

jk said...

The LIRR Belmont service is being canceled again, for an annual savings of $150k.

ACTION: Discontinue Belmont Park service Wednesday-Sunday (except for Belmont Stakes)
BRANCHES AFFECTED: Not Branch Specific
CUSTOMER IMPACTS: Utilize bus service to Belmont from Queens Village

Anonymous said...

Total cost to provide LIRR service for one year = one month payment to Getnick.