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Wednesday, June 04, 2008

Just Zip It in Tough Spot

- Very tough open allowance race for Just Zip It, in the 8th at Belmont today. Out of her state-bred allowance conditions, she's in a tight spot these days, and this entry-level race shows why. The idea is to eventually get her into a state-bred stakes in which she can be competitive. But she's training well and is ready to go, so they'll take a shot in with these today. As well as she's run, she'll really have to step up the Beyer scale to be competitive here. I do get concerned however, given her obvious competitiveness and eagerness to run, that she could get discouraged running her heart out against seemingly faster fillies such as these.

The third place finisher from her last race, One Tough Belle, won her next start with an 87 Beyer, the kind of improvement Just Zip It would have to show today. One Tough Belle is trained by Bill Badgett who, as I noted the other day, has been moving his horses up. That barn starts Valid Yankee (3-1) in the 5th today; she's a filly who has burned a fair amount of money in her career. Nothing to get too excited about, but certainly a horse to include, I think, if you're playing the early pick four.

In the 4th, let's take a flyer with Party Girl (12-1), if the race should remain on the grass despite the overnight rains here. This filly was group stakes placed in France, but has been thus far disappointing in three US starts. However, she had little shot two back against an unfavorable pace scenario, and showed signs of life in an even 5th in a stakes race in her last. Trainer Peter Pugh is another one of those under the radar guys with some high percentage numbers from limited starters - 6-2-2-0 at this meeting, and the two winners were both double digit odds. Drop in class and distance could get Party Girl close at a fair price. Good luck and have a great day.


Anonymous said...

Good luck to Zip, competition doesnt look so tough in her current form.

Wondering which "owners" are selling their Belmont Stakes owners boxes on Stub Hub for 4k per Seat (24k per box!)?

Was surprised at how many very good seats were being offered.

As for the ordinary $40 seats like mine, they are being offered for about double face value, or less than face value of my Thursday Yankee Tickets.

Adds a little perspective to the alleged hysteria, I think.

Anonymous said...

From today;

"Len Friedman, a partner in the Ragozin sheets, said Tuesday that "Ricky got it right," adding the move to a higher figure in the Preakness probably bodes well for Big Brown's chances Saturday in the Belmont Stakes.

"It's still a neutral pattern," said Friedman. "He's better off that he bounced in the Preakness, and now he's got a better chance of going forward again. I'd say it's about 50-50 on which way he moves Saturday.""

Well thanks for the brilliant insight, Len!

El Angelo said...

Some pinhead entered a maiden in the Belmont Stakes. For an industry that's coping with the PR nightmare of trying to avoid breakdowns, injuries, etc., this is not helping.

Anonymous said...

el angelo, while I'm not saying the entry of Guadalcanal was brilliant I don't think its the worst thing I've ever seen.

Yes he's a maiden, but he just recently finished a 1 1/2 mi turf race at Churchill taking 2nd and based upon other starts the distance isn't an issue.

He was a TC nominee and has more starts under his belt then most horses in this race.

It's silly to suggest he's any more prone to breakdown then say any other entry would be in the Belmont.

I'll go so far as to say this horse will not finish last in this field.

Anonymous said...

Agreed, I actually bet him in his last.

There have been far worse last minute entries in the past, who was that horse Perez entered a few years back?