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Saturday, April 09, 2011

Big A Saturday

The G3 Comely, the 7th at the Big A at a mile on the main track, is a ponderous one. Only one of the seven fillies have experience at a one-turn route distance; and that one ran poorly in her only such try. Morning line favorite Ava K (5-2) is undefeated in three dominant efforts at minuscule odds against state-bred company. She's been plenty good, has run fast enough for this race, and she's beaten some decent horses, including Midnight Visit, who went on to win another state-bred stakes. The Comely may be a graded stakes race in name only; but the jump to open company against a few fillies who have shown enough to indicate improvement potential seems like a good enough reason to take a shot against.

Hot Summer (5-1) is the filly who faltered at this one-turn mile, but she surely had excuses. In her first race in three months, for trainer David Fawkes, she found herself on the lead and intently pursued by Pomeroys Pistol, a Grade 2 winner making her third start [of the year] who would surely be favored here. She faded badly to 5th (15 lengths behind subsequent GP Oaks winner R Heat Lightning), and it's fair I think if you deduce that the stretch out to a mile was beyond her ability. But I'd give her another shot, in the hope that she's ridden more patiently as she was last year; and because of a highly unusual pedigree with plenty of distance influence. By Malibu Moon, out of a Quiet American mare, Hot Summer is very closely inbred, 2x3, to the half-brothers AP Indy and Summer Squall; and she's also inbred 5x5 to Buckpasser. She also traces directly back to the influential broodmare Toll Booth, her 4th dam and the dam of Plugged Nickel, a personal favorite back in the day. Luiz Saez is in for the ride; and to ride Apriority in the Carter for the barn, for which he hits at 27%.

Her Smile (3-1) is a highly consistent daughter of Include who has steadily improved; her close third in the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay was behind two good fillies in Wyomia and Devilish Lady. Royal Sighting (5-1) buried a weak maiden field; prior was a neck loss to R Holiday Mood, a subsequent overnight stakes winner who's 7-2 morning line here. Daughter of Rahy has moved up sharply since trainer Pat Kelly added blinkers three starts back.

In the Bay Shore, the 8th race, J J's Lucky Train (3-1) has trained brilliantly since a grueling effort at this 7f distance in a career high 97 Beyer that you might figure would have taken something out of him. He went head and head around the turn and down the stretch from the outside with Bandbox, who furthermore floated him four wide on the turn. That colt is a neck away from being unbeaten in his five sprinting efforts, and came back to win the Private Terms. Two bullet five furlong breezes indicate that J J's Lucky Train is none the worse for the wear. May have found his real comfort zone sprinting, and just a repeat of his last effort should get him home here. Vengeful Wildcat (4-1) may have been a short horse tiring late in the Capossella, and will have to contend with added distance here. Smoke It Right (6-1) ships in from unbeaten in four races at Oaklawn, Delta, and Evangeline, with moderate Beyers. Test for class in this spot.

- I was at a yoga class the other day, and the teacher recited excerpts of a lovely and wise poem called Desiderata, by Max Ehrmann and written in 1952; a portion of which reads as follows:

Speak your truth quietly and clearly;
and listen to others,
even the dull and the ignorant;
they too have their story.
Actually, as much as I might try to see virtue in all of my fellow man, I might have to disagree with the poet in this case; at least as pertains to some of the dull and ignorant who have been polluting the comments section here with juvenile trash. Accordingly, I've turned on the moderation function for now. Seems kinda unfair because now I'm the only one who will have to see this crap, but I'll spare you for now. Best of luck, and have a great day.


steve in nc said...

I appreciate the moderation.

I'm not sure the karma will help the Rangers at all, but you're inspiring me to renew my yoga tomorrow.

It'll be good for my back and drive the wing nuts crazy = a Daily Double that will pay more than anything involving Uncle Mo.

So thanks. Hope you drive home from the track in a Brinks truck.

Alan Mann said...

Yeah baby, Rangers win, $48 exacta in the 7th, $58 double, where are those fucking haters now?

Oh, that's right, I'm blocking their comments. :-/

Anonymous said...

And we have a wide open derby.


steve in nc said...

Can you aim some of those good vibes at the Mets? Or would that be a waste?

DiscreetPicks said...

I got a kick out of Durkin's comment, "The Kentucky Dereby is up for grabs!"

Like it wasn't before, lol.

Anonymous said...

Nice handicapping, Alan. Looks like you picked a couple of cold exactas in those 3yo races preceeding the Wood. -jp