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Saturday, April 23, 2011

Keeneland Saturday

- In the 2nd at Keeneland on Saturday, Math Class (6-1) comes out of a career best effort, coming in her first two-turn try, at Turfway (following a race in which she stumbled very badly at the start and finished far back). She rallied that day to get up by a head over 1-5 favorite Sarah's Kitten. That one ran a decent third, beaten three lengths, in 40K company here; so I'm figuring that Math Class fits perfectly well at least on class in this 20K race, her first try over this course. Daughter of Eddington has gone well with today's jockey John McKee; and trainer William Connelly has been sharp in Kentucky with six straight in-the-money finishes (three wins) at Turfway and Keeneland. Proud House (6-1) was outrun in graded stakes company in her last, but prior two were front-running wins following the addition of blinkers. Without much speed in here, she could be tough to run down.

In the 6th, Senor Dehere (4-1) makes his second start off a layoff for trainer Graham Motion, struggling at this meet, but 22% in that category. Lightly raced five-year old, whose only poor effort in his four career starts came around two turns, closed well from far back for third in a five furlong turf dash at Tampa last month, and stretches out to seven furlongs here. Also gets reunited with Leparoux, who piloted him to victory in his debut, in a 5 1/2 furlong turf sprint at Saratoga last fall. Subsequent try at Keeneland at this level and distance was a curious one; sent close to the lead early, he dropped back and re-rallied for third behind two subsequent winners. Expect Senor Dehere to be running late if he sticks to his closing style here after a very sharp five furlong work over the track last week. Remember Unbridled's Heart (10-1)? Still hasn't won, in 11 tries now, since earning a 101 Beyer winning by ten at Belmont back in May, 2008; including the next four in NY at less than even money. No, don't really like him here either despite a good effort at Fair Grounds in his last, but seemed worth a mention off his ignominious past.

- Sam's Bliss, picked here on Thursday, rallied to win and paid $18.80. That was the 4th consecutive winner selected on this blog, so beware.... Best of luck and have a great day.


Anonymous said...

No Lexington horse? Yeah, I haven't liked a horse in that race since behind at the bar. Your other 2 picks certainly won't have it easy, but when you're hot, you're hot.

DC - were you on tippity tap tap tonight? Sneaky sort made a big run. I had w/p and the exacta 5 times.

Also, new early pick 5 at Hollywood has very low takeout, like 15 percent. Great bet if you like a few solid horses, however, the fact it pays for 4 is stupid IMO.

Finally, watching the jockeys adjust back to polytrack has been fun. Joel coming home in tonights 7th was a thing of beauty. Synthetics horses might have a little value for the first week or two at Hollywood.

Thanks for the entertainment Alan, and tell mom I said hello.

PS - hopefully we can disagree on a derby horse and I can win my Blame money back...

Anonymous said...

Does anyone know if Belmont will be offering a pick five on their racing format.

Anonymous said...

I will try one more time. Thanks in advance.

Does anyone know if Belmont will have a pick five play on their up-coming meet.

Alan Mann said...

I don't see anything about a pick 5. They have however reduced the minimum wager on pick 4's to 50 cent.