Previewing the F&M Turf, Ladies Classic (With a New Toy)

I scored Sheets for the Breeders' Cup. And though it was specifically in response to me saying that the presence of European horses made many BC races a guess (I'm told that the Ragozin numbers for the European races are good, and it's the first direct figure comparison of our horses to theirs that I've ever seen), I'm gonna look at them for all the races (especially in cases when they reinforce my own opinion). Not that I'm thriving with my normal style these days anyway. I may not be familiar with the finer points. For example, while I might interpret the 5 by Havre De Grace after two 0's as a mere bounce from which she can and should completely recover, a couple of veteran Sheets guys I know say that it's more likely that she's done. However, I can surely look and determine which horses are simply faster than others (or better yet, which horses taking money are slower than others who are not).

So, with that partially in mind, let's start getting to the races that I like as betting contests (which presently excludes all the 2yo races, the Marathon [too long] and the Turf Sprint [too short]). In the F&M Turf, Nahrain (7-2) looks for her fifth career win in as many starts, and Frankie Dettori will ride (he's suspended starting on Saturday). I have to admit that this is in part a sentimental pick. Three-year old daughter of Selkirk got me out on my last bet on my recent visit to Longchamps on Arc day. Wasn't just that she won me money though, it was the way she did so that's won me over. Trapped down on the rail in the stretch, and foiled on several attempts to find running room, Nahrain showed ample persistence and determination when she finally burst through, surged to the lead, and somehow held off the older and more seasoned Announce (9-2) in her first ten furlong try (and first beyond a mile-70 yds). Still looks to me that the latter got the nod when I watch the race, but I guess it's those French camera angles. Announce actually earned a 4 on the Sheets, as opposed to the winner's 5 (lower numbers are better as you may know), with Nahrain saving ground throughout. But neither the Sheets nor the Beyers take heart into account, and Nahrain showed a lot of it, especially for such a young filly. Tries another furlong here, but don't see why it would be a big problem.

Darley homebred has improved every time, whether you look at Sheets or whatever it is those numbers are in the Form, and any further improvement would surely put her right there.

Announce is obviously tough too off that effort in the Prix de l'Opera, and has won from a mile and a quarter to a mile and a half (and even a mile and 9/16). So she can definitely get the mile and 3/8 distance, and has what (I think) is a nice pattern of improvement on the Sheets. Been a fairly busy year with six starts since May, but I think she could move forward too, and can easily win this race. Will surely be saving in the exacta with her on top.

Stacelita seems clearly the best of the US runners, and has been installed as the solid 2-1 morning line favorite. Don't really have anything bad to say about her either. She was a close second herself in the Prix de l'Opera, last year, so surely matches up on class. Her US form for trainer Chad Brown is obviously quite good. As far as the Sheets go, I think she can run a 4 here, which would likely put her right there should the two European fillies not improve. The one maybe possible chink for this German-bred five-year old mare is the fact that she did weaken a bit in the final furlong on firm turf at this distance in the United Nations at Monmouth, her US debut. Maybe that's a stretch....but in any event, I'd try to beat her on price and limit her to defensive use should she be bet to her morning line, as I don't think she at all stands out as those odds would indicate.

Misty For Me (10-1) is a four-time Group 1 winner in the UK and France; including a six length win over Midday, who's 4-1 in the Turf. Bad post here, but surely wouldn't be a shocker; good value at those odds. Dubawi Heights (8-1) has progressed extremely well in her four-year old year as she's climbed the class ladder and stretched out in distance. Her Beyers have steadily improved, and she paired up career best 6's on the Sheets. I think that's good, right? Either of these could add some spice to triples.

In the Ladies Classic, Ultra Blend (8-1) fires every time; she is as consistent and game as they come. This mare has really embraced the game at age five, stepping up seamlessly from state-bred stakes to Grade 1 company in California. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think it's a bit of a leap of faith to think that the East Coast three-year olds are such a cut above this horse, as indicated by the morning line. She goes second off a brief layoff for trainer Art Sherman. He's campaigned Ultra Blend in two race sequences in this way throughout the year, and she's yet to lose in the second race in four such tries (though once by DQ). First race at Churchill, but she's run well on a multitude of different tracks and surfaces. Would seem a bargain to me at that price.

Turning to those three-year olds, Plum Pretty (2-1) comes off her freakout at Parx, when she got loose on the lead and drew off to a monster win, with a 108 Beyer and a 0 on the Sheets. A really smart guy I know says that he's noticed significant bounces off big tops at the Philly track (Havre de Grace in last year's Ladies Classic for one); and that Plum Pretty is therefore a probable bet-against as the favorite here. Not to mention the fact that, if the Moss Pace numbers are any indication, she figures to have her hands full early with Ask the Moon (6-1). Royal Delta (5-2) I think has regressed since her win in the Black Eyed Susan - third in the CCA Oaks; her win by default when the Alabama completely fell apart worse than the Perry campaign (and as the Cain campaign is poised to do); and her distant second in the Beldame. If you throw out the numbers from that Alabama in which she walked home in 26 seconds, as I did (I just don't think figures mean that much when a race falls apart like that), she's just slower. It's Tricky (5-1) ran a big number on the Sheets sucking along behind Plum Pretty in the Cotillion; but she's run that number before. So, though she's been beaten in her last two by each of three-year olds mentioned directly above (after beating both of them in the CCA Oaks), at this distance, and with some pace help up front, I think she could surprise at a decent price.