Hope and Admiration for Uncle Mo

I'm almost tempted to pick Uncle Mo, just to be contrary. He has to be the most under-selected morning line favorite in history. None of the 'experts' in the Form who analyzed the card in detail - Watchmaker, Brad Free, Dave Litfin nor Byron King - select him in the top three. Beyer obviously doesn't like him. He's not in the top three on the Form's consensus selection box. No one I saw on Twitter likes him. Absolutely NOBODY....

Oh, Steve Crist picks him out of hope, loyalty, and admiration, but with absolutely no confidence that he’ll get the distance.

Well, not a ringing endorsement, but that's something I guess. I actually might pick him out of hope and admiration. Certainly not loyalty. We've had a lot of fun with this horse here, labeling him as Uncle Schmo, presenting the poop on his illness with a great deal of skepticism, blasting his connections for even considering the Derby afterwards. (And given how serious we're told his illness turned out to be, seems especially bizarre now that he was actually at Churchill preparing for the race).

Uncle Mo's comeback though has been undeniably impressive. I don't think 'brilliant' is an overstatement. Taken out of his front-running game in the seven furlong Kings Bishop, the son of Indian Charlie settled in, and circled the field on the turn like he's being doing it all his life. No disgrace for sure in his first race back to get nipped by the one-turn specialist Caleb's Posse. And I've heard people try to disparage his Kelso win by saying he was alone on the lead. While that was indeed the case, he actually accelerated, completely on his own volition, to a second quarter of 22 2/5 after an opening split of 23 2/5. And he shook off the big rally by the older Jackson Bend, who has undeniably come into his own this year (as he will prove when he rallies for second in the Sprint), with ridiculous ease, earning his outsized Beyer (118) and miniscule Rag number (0).

Can he really now, off those two 1-turn races, succeed at the classic mile and a quarter distance, 3/16ths of a mile longer than he ever has? Surely does seem like a tall order. One thing I believe is for sure: those chomping at the bit to bet against him as the Classic favorite are going to be disappointed. I'd be shocked if he actually went off as post-time favorite over Havre de Grace given the overwhelming negative sentiment against him. I more expect him to be more or less even as 2nd or 3rd choice with Flat Out. And I would not be shocked if he's higher than So You Think (already accepted a wager about that, so please don't bother). Remember, this isn't the Derby, when the pools are flooded with a lot of amateur dollars (like I'm a "professional," right?). The Breeders' Cup, with its oversized roster of races, and undersized promotion by the sport's broadcast partner of choice, is strictly an industry affair, especially with no Zenyattas to crossover to the mainstream media (sorry Goldikova fans). In this case, we are the "public" money. And we don't like Uncle Mo.

I'll speak for myself though. I would bet him if his odds indeed reflect the uncertainty about his stamina and preparation, balanced of course by his undeniable brilliance. I dunno, 6-1 sound fair? Since that's unlikely, I probably won't do much of anything with this race, especially since it's preceded by the Mile, a race I'm excited to watch but also uninterested in wagering on. The Classic pretty much sucks this year, other than the presence of the 2 yo champ and the filly; not a Flat Out fan, though he's definitely in good form (though note his two middling efforts over this surface). I expect Uncle Mo and Havre de Grace to have opened up some daylight over these bums after turning for home. The more likely result is that the filly draws off and wins the race as the favorite. But, there's always hope. And, if he pulls it off, admiration, in spades.

- This year's Turf is a great European race, so maybe they should be running it in Europe so we don't have to hear the connections complaining about the grass course here again.