Black Monday

Hope everyone had a fun and safe holiday weekend!

On the top of the agenda for Monday's special session of the New York State Legislature is this:

enacting a plan to provide for adequate savings and implementation of other measures to allow for the continued operation of the New York City Off-Track Betting Corporation;

The apparent lame duck Senate Democratic Majority will need all of their 32 members present in order to pass any legislation without unlikely help from the Republicans, and it's unclear if that will be the case, or if some will instead brood over their impending descent into the minority. It's also unclear what legislation will be taken up at all. "I think anything we take up should have a sense of urgency to it," [Assembly Minority Leader Brian Kolb] said. [WGRZ.com] So, in an attempt to make sure the lawmakers sense urgency on the matter, OTB president Greg Rayburn roused state capital reporters from their Sunday off with a teleconference to emphasize the fact that NYC OTB will close in December should the bill fail. And with dire consequences.

Rayburn warned that closure would put the state on the hook for roughly half a billion in employee medical benefits and pension costs. In addition to the job losses directly resulting from a shutdown, the ripple effects from the loss of business to the racing industry would have ripple effects around the state and elsewhere. Rayburn said the total number of lost jobs could range from 40,000 to 70,000. [Capitol Confidential]

I've detailed the harness horsemen's objections to the plan. Their argument seems to have caught the ear of at least one influential legislator.

Assembly Racing and Wagering Committee chairman Gary Pretlow said the latest threat to close OTB is likely more real than past claims--including only a year ago by the former NYCOTB chairman. He said he has a number of concerns about the bill and what he called its "extraneous items," such as reducing the number of race dates at Monticello racetrack.
....
“What happened is because Rayburn wanted unanimity on everything (from the creditors committee), people stuck their noses in to benefit themselves at the expense of other entities," said Pretlow, who believes some of the concerns can be addressed by amending the Paterson-proposed bill. [Bloodhorse.com]

That last statement may be a reference to Jeff Gural, the owner of Tioga and Vernon Downs who is on the creditors committee by virtue of being the landlord of several buildings that lease space to OTB. The harness horsemen filed a formal objection to the plan in Bankruptcy Court last week.

They are asking state lawmakers to hold off on approving the governor’s proposed OTB bailout, which he calls “bordering on scandalous.”

[Standardbred Owners Association of New York president Joe Faraldo] said OTB owes Yonkers Raceway $22 million, 52 percent of which belongs to the horsemen. At Monticello Casino and Raceway, he said OTB owes $7 million, half of which is owed to the horsemen. But, in both cases, he said the raceways traded off the entire debt with OTB for an interest in an advanced deposit wagering system.

He also said under the governor’s plan, Monticello’s racing dates would be cut by 30 percent, and that “stinks to high heaven,” said Faraldo. [Mid-Hudson News]

As I've noted, the thoroughbred horsemen, with slots revenue (presumably still) on the way, are willing to take the hit and support OTB's plan.

A lot is at stake here, and the racing industry in this state will not be quite the same, no matter the result. Should the bill not be passed, the fallout will being immediately. Unlike Sandy Frucher's ultimately empty closure threat, I don't think these guys are joking around.

Closure notices will start going out Nov. 30 to the nearly 1,000 OTB employees, Schwartz said, if the legislature does not approve the bailout plan during the Nov. 29 special session. [Bloodhorse.com]

Happy Thanksgiving!

Apart is the 7-2 favorite in the Clark Handicap at Churchill on Friday. Being trained by Albert Stall as he is (and trying to replicate the success of Blame in winning this race as a three-year old as a springboard to stardom at four), one can get a peek at the past performance chart of Blame by using the trainer patterns tool in Formulator. We don't always see - at least without some effort - the past performance lines after a horse is retired. In the case of Blame, his Classic line comprises the final stroke of an impressive body of work. Eight wins and never out of the money in 12 career starts; triple-digit Beyers in his last nine, including a 111 in the Classic, which tied his career high. And four wins in five starts, at as many racetracks, in what should be his championship season. I was a Zenyatta supporter as you know, and it may very well be that she was the best horse on Breeders' Cup day. But Blame won the year's climactic showdown fair and square, and is Horse of the Year hands down in my opinion.

Apart has won three in a row, though he hasn't beaten much. The Super Derby has not come back strong; 4th place finisher Golden Moka was an awful favorite in the Discovery (not red-boarding, he wasn't among my top three picks). And he beat just four foes, including the sluggish Jackson Bend, in winning the Ack Ack.

However, this field ain't so hot either...and we seem to be saying that about more and more Grade 1's these days. This one at least has a couple of actual Grade 1 winners; though Stately Victor's was on Polytrack, Brass Hat's in the slop. Apart is improving for a hot trainer (6 for 10 at the meet going into Wednesday), has his main man Garrett Gomez aboard, and has handy tactical speed which could put him in good position behind prospective pace setters Redding Colliery and Regal Ransom. I think he'd surely be worth a bet as second choice to morning line favorite Successful Dan, who flashes some gaudy Beyers in his last two on the Keeneland Poly. (I know, he was two-for-two over this track in the spring of last year). Throw out the last for Giant Oak (15-1); son of Giant's Causeway shows two sharp efforts prior. And though he hasn't won in a while and his optimal distance is probably somewhere between this race and the BC Marathon, he could add some value at the bottom of exotic wagers here.

It's the usual early Thanksgiving post time at the Big A, and I'm hoping to make it out for a few races before heading to family dinner, and then ending up sitting in the rain at the Meadowlands for the Jets game. Here's wishing all of you a happy and safe holiday!

Compact Casino

Governor Paterson formally announced the compact with the Wisconsin-based Stockbridge-Munsee tribe, which will give up its claim on 23,000 acres in exchange for a 300-acre parcel in Sullivan County on which it plans to build a casino.

Tribe officials said once the casino and resort is built in Sullivan County, it would be the largest employer in the county, creating an estimated 4,600 jobs. It has an estimated economic impact of $715 million annually.

The construction of the casino is expected to create about 8,100 jobs. [Ithaca Journal]

Additionally, in an attempt to appease the nearby, and imperiled, Monticello racetrack and racino, he pledged $100 million to "help them with their expansion.”

He did not elaborate; the state is facing a $9 billion deficit, so it remains uncertain how – financially and politically – the state could provide funds to Monticello. [Bloodhorse.com]

Governor-elect Andrew Cuomo said that the current governor is "on firm legal ground in what he's doing."

"We don't anticipate any legal challenges." [Daily Politics]

I think that the governor-elect may be the only person in the state who actually believes that (if he really does). The Oneida Nation, which has competing land claims with the Stockbridge-Munsee tribe, promised to "be seriously involved in opposing this deal at all levels."

And environmental groups are certain to file suit. One of those is the National Resources Defense Council. I quoted that group's New York director yesterday saying that the project faced long odds. His opinion on the topic is obvious, but still, his more detailed explanation of the hurdles that the plan faces is interesting reading and worth stealing reproducing here.

First, the casino still requires a full environmental review under federal law to assess the heavy traffic, air and water pollution, as well as the destruction of the beautiful landscape, that this proposal would bring. Second, the federal Interior Department would have to agree to take the land into “federal trust” and approve gambling at this Catskills site – even though it rejected essentially the same proposal at the same Neversink River site three years ago, and there’s no indication that the Interior Department has changed its position. And third, because the deal settles outstanding land claims against New York State, it would need to get separate approval by Congress, federal officials and the New York State Legislature – hardly an easy task. [Switchboard - NRDC staff blog]

Genting continues to be apoplectic about the plan.

"We are extremely concerned about the massive loss in VLT [video lottery terminal] revenue to the state that would result from the proposed Stockbridge-Munsee project, and its negative effect on our ability to further invest to create more jobs," said Stefan Friedman, a spokesman for Genting's Resorts World. [NY Post]

I do wonder however if Genting's worry really is Aqueduct as much as Monticello, in which it holds a major share. They're not going to get nearly as much leverage complaining about that track as they would about their highly-publicized and long-awaited racino at the Big A. Tom Precious reported in his Bloodhorse.com piece:

State officials insisted there is plenty of room for competition between the planned Catskills facility and New York racetrack-based casinos.

And, considering the resilience of slots-only business at Yonkers amidst recession and competition from already-existing full-blown casinos not all that much further away than Sullivan County, do you think that may be true?

Monday Morning News and Notes

Of course, not everyone is upset about the proposed Stockbridge-Munsee casino in Sullivan County in the Catskills region. Local officials and residents have been trying to get a casino to revive the region's fortunes for many years now.

State Senator John Bonacic said the project would be idea for Sullivan County. “This is the best way for job creation, private sector money, we don’t need any stimulus money to increase tourism and job creation if we do get the Stockbridge casino,” he said. Bonacic also said he would ask Schumer to use “all of his influence to push this project.” [Mid-Hudson News.]

Senator Schumer is said to have lobbied Interior Secretary Ken Salazar to change the federal policy requiring its approval for off-reservation casinos. Probably why Marian Ilitch and Michael Malik, the financial backers of the Shinnecock tribe, contributed to the Senator's re-election campaign this year (as well as that of Senator Gillibrand). But this is surely not what they had in mind.

Of course, the local support in Sullivan County surely does not include the horsemen at the already struggling Monticello Casino and Raceway. In a statement, the Monticello horsemen note:

Interestingly, while this operation would include not only slot machines but also table games, the tax rate would be quite small in relation to what the racinos and their horsemen presently pay to the State. Worse yet, the competition from such an undertaxed operation would stifle the growth of, and investment in, the gaming and entertainment industries created under the carefully crafted video lottery terminal program; a program that is as closely regulated by the State as it is heavily taxed.

In other words, Monticello is surely toast should this casino open in Bridgeville, just a few miles away.

- In the 5th at the Big A on Sunday, Chad Brown once again had the favorite with a first-time starter in a two-year old turf race. Unlike with Yankee Kitten on Saturday though, the rally by 2-1 Walker's Landing fell short; in part, because of his racing greenly, as he lugged in repeatedly throughout the stretch drive, with the rider engaging in a constant state of tug of war to maintain a truer course. Tag V Eye ($51), after bravely ignoring the lugging antics being displayed by Walker's Landing, held on to win in his first start, for trainer John Terranova. And there were some pedigree clues to suggest that this longshot son of the late Hennessy would like the grass. He's out of a Stravinsky mare who's a half-sister to the multiple graded turf stakes winner Mystic Lady; and he hails from the distaff family of the Saratoga favorite Fourstars Allstar (whose dam is the third dam of Tag V Eye).

Fourstars Allstar won 13 times in his 58 starts; but, as I've said, sometimes a horse amply demonstrates its greatness in defeat. Check out this race (no embedding unfortunately), the Caesars International at Atlantic City in 1994. And check out the post-race coverage on CBS; you might be surprised at who is interviewing Mike Smith, the rider of the great turf champion, and two-time BC Mile winner, Lure, in the winner's circle.

Coming Soon (Still, We Hope)

Well, it's still coming soon according to the signs, despite the unhappiness, and even hesitation, expressed by Genting in reaction to Governor Paterson's Catskills casino plans. The outgoing governor is scheduled to be in Monticello - along with Senator Chuck Schumer - for an official announcement of a deal with the Wisconsin-based Stockbridge-Munsee tribe.

And now we finally hear from the New York Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association. Having acquiesced in the matter of the NYCOTB reorganization plan which could have adverse effects on their standardbred brethren, now they see their own interests threatened. So they've called on Paterson to postpone the announcement.

"I am writing to express our frustration and disbelief that your office has been in negotiations with the SMMN to establish a full-blown casino in Sullivan County, as the ink has barely dried on the Genting/Aqueduct racino project."

Even should the governor proceed however, the project still faces an uncertain future.

"If I were a betting man, I wouldn't booking any reservations at this casino anytime soon," said Mark Izeman, the director of the [National Resource Defense Council's] New York program. [Herald Record]

Besides the strong environmental challenges that will be put forth by that and other groups, the project faces court challenges from other tribes - particularly the Oneida tribe, which has a competing land claim - and still requires the approval of Interior Secretary Ken Salazar.

So, for now, (as far as we know!), the plans at the Big A proceed, as I discovered on Saturday, my first day at the meet.



No, no slots yet, but NYRA hosted a group of subcontractors on this day.



Well, when I walk into the Garden these days, I see signs about asbestos abatement, so what's a little dust and droppings?

There's surely some short-term pain for the long-term gain at this meeting. The seating area on the third floor grandstand - the best view in the house - is now blocked off.







And I was quite surprised to see the Lexington Room on the second floor closed off to all but Authorized Personnel. I'd spent less time there over the last few years after they changed the seating arrangement, but that was my main hangout for quite some time; many a winter evening after the live racing was done. I saw regulars whose faces have grown well familiar over that time scattered into the adjoining Man O War room and up on the Equestris level. Hopefully, it will one day be back, far better than before. (Unless Genting is turning it into their office?)

Still, despite the temporary inconveniences, it's nice to be back. 3,935 at Aqueduct seems a whole lot livelier than twice that much at the cavernous Belmont.

- In the 4th, first-time starter Yankee Kitten ($7) was a hot number on the grass for trainer Chad Brown, who has established a bit of a reputation for himself with this kind. This two-year old son of Kitten's Joy was stuck towards the back of the pack as they dawdled up front - a nearly 27-second second quarter as they went to the half in 51.3; three-quarters in 1:17. From there, they sprinted home in 24.5 and six seconds flat for the last sixteenth, during which Yankee Kitten blew by for the win; nice effort. He's out of a Southern Halo mare, and is inbred (4x5) to Hail to Reason, which seems to becoming more popular these days, and 5x5 to Prince John.

In the Discovery, Not Abroad made a menacing move four wide heading for home. But he hung in the stretch; as I feared, probably not his optimal distance. Still, a good run at 7-1, and I ran second and third in the exacta, oh well; a day of close-but-no cigar for me. NY-bred Stormy's Majesty ($9.10) led all the way for the win, his first in open company, for trainer Dominic Galluscio.

Lookin At Gone

Looking at Lucky was sold and retired, and I have nothing to add to Figless' comment here. That means that the top four betting choices in the Classic - the only four entrants that went off at less than 18-1 - are now out of the game. So, since El Angelo points out that the Discovery has produced some decent winners, keep an eye on the result today. It could produce the winter book favorite for next year's Classic. (If the winner is not sold and retired.)

I don't know if Zenyatta is the type to go for younger guys (if she does indeed like men at all), but she and Lookin At Lucky do seem compatible from a pedigree standpoint. The resulting foal would have the inbreeding to Mr. Prospector (3x4) that is so popular these days.

If you look at the Lanes End roster - and again, I don't know that the fact that she'll be residing there means that she'll be shacking up there - I guess that the obvious choice would be AP Indy. No pedigree impediments in that crossing - the foal would be an outcross for the first four generations, and have 5x5 inbreeding to Princequillo. Not a drop of Northern Dancer blood to be found in that mating.

Discovery

In the Discovery Handicap at the Big A, Not Abroad (4-1) ships in from the mid-Atlantic region to make his first start in New York. This three-year old son of Not For Love has just one win in ten starts this year, and not a layoff line to be seen since he started his busy campaign in May. He's none the worse for wear though, and in fact comes off a career high (and best last-out in the race) Beyer while finishing a length behind Win Willy in an overnight stakes (worth a mere $131,000) at Delaware.

Now, I understand this is a race restricted to three-year olds, but if it wasn't, Win Willy could seriously be 2-5 in this field. Whatsmore, after putting away the pacesetter, Not Abroad gamely held off the Toddster-trained Alma d'Oro, who could very well be the favorite here himself, before succumbing to the winner. Not positive that this is his best distance. But I think he has a distinct class edge which would make him very good value at his morning line odds.

Teaks North (7-2) switched back to dirt and took the Big Brown at Monmouth in his last. Bullet half mile four days before this mimics winning workout pattern before last. Dominant Jeannes (8-1) impressed in his first try against winners and tries two turns.

Pleasantly Perfect is the sire of the last horse mentioned, and he'll be one of the studs that Zenyatta will be able to check out at Lanes End....though, with his fee reduced to $7500 for 2011, he's not likely to get a piece of the action. Who, if any of the stallions based there, will be the one that Zenyatta will be singing this about?

So Long

Zenyatta will be paraded on December 5 at Hollywood Park, where people will gather to clap for a horse. She'll then ship off to her new home at Lanes End Farm in Kentucky, so I guess she'll have to breed on natural dirt. Claire Novak writes on her NTRA blog: And this isn’t good-bye. But it surely is. That's just sappy sentimental shit. So long, see ya.

Maybe someday we will see an offspring of Zenyatta competing for glory, but history suggests that there's a strong chance that we won't. In the meantime, racing has a big void to fill. There are no obvious candidates (and don't tell me Uncle Mo) for the kind of stardom, spilling over into the real world, that this horse achieved.

Genting Caught Off Guard

Governor Paterson's surprise announcement of a deal with a Wisconsin-based tribe to construct and operate a casino (the real kind, with roulette wheels and table games) in the Catskills region has not gone over well with most anyone at least outside of that region, which has desperately been trying to land a casino or three for years.

Particularly so with a particular company which recently handed over $380 million for the rights to build a plain old slots parlor at Aqueduct a bit over 100 miles to the south. And as reader jk suggests, trouble in paradise?

“This decision, and the process that accompanied it,” Mr. Friedman said, “significantly impairs our ability to deliver tax revenue to the state, and it greatly reduces our ability to move forward with a planned $1.3 billion dollar investment to build a world class resort.” [NY Times]

This is the first note of discord or dissatisfaction of any kind we've heard from Genting since they burst onto the scene. But do they really literally mean what they said? I don't know that it really reduces their ability to move forward with investing an amount nearly as much as that to build the new Meadowlands stadium as much as their desire to do so given the potential new competition. And interesting, though hardly surprising, that they would cite the process with equal disdain as the decision.

“We went through a rigorous, comprehensive review and would expect that same level of scrutiny to apply to everyone across the board.” [Albany Times-Union]

Of course, we don't really know what kind of scrutiny the Stockbridge-Munsee tribe underwent because we didn't even know the process was going on.

Blair Horner, legislative director of the New York Public Interest Research Group, said the deal raised eyebrows, particularly coming on the heels of a scandal over bidding for the Aqueduct racino. “The negotiations were conducted in secret,” he said, adding, “The administration should have bent over backwards to have made this process as open as possible.” [NYT]

Albany is surely a place where one does not learn from their mistakes, as we know.

Meanwhile, the governor will try again to have his special session of the legislature, now calling for the chambers to convene on Nov 29. It's possible that the OTB reorganization plan will be considered at that time.

It's also possible, if not highly probable, that the Democratic majority in the Senate will be of the lame duck variety; that with the Republican candidates still leading in two out of the three undeclared election races. Governor-elect Cuomo is calling for the races to be decided, one way or another, by the time the legislature convenes under his purview on January 5. Sounds to me as if the governor-elect has not received the Senate Democrats' talking points, a copy of which I've managed to obtain.

• Our internal analysis shows that Senate Democrats have won the majority.

• We started this election in the majority, we remain in the majority, and we will do everything necessary to protect our victories.
...
• Once every vote has been tallied, Democrats will have retained the majority.

• We’re raising resources and going to spend whatever it takes to ensure every vote is counted.

Sounds to me as if the Senate Democrats are not going to let anything as trivial as a new governor persuade them to give up the fight. And that fight includes a bid, in the 60th Senate District in upstate Western NY, to have more than 50,000 votes hand counted in Erie County.

Such a route, if the courts ultimately agree, could delay for months a final decision in the contest between [Democrat] Sen. Antoine Thompson and [Democrat turned Republican] Mark Grisanti. [Buffalo News]

Of course, considering that Erie County amazingly voted for Paladino by a wide (57-39) margin, I can't imagine what the Democrats think they could possibly find there, other than a further delay to what may be the inevitable. Or, as the GOP claims:

“These unnecessary delays are designed to give Democrats more time to retire $2.1 million in campaign debt before they go into the minority."

Nothing Special

Monday was the day that Governor Paterson had planned to convene a special session to deal with, for one thing, a $300 million shortfall in the budget and, perhaps, OTB's plan to reorganize and restructure itself and emerge from bankruptcy. The governor still hopes to convene the preoccupied legislature before the end of the year, which is the deadline Greg Rayburn has given for his OTB to run out of cash and go out of business.

If and when lawmakers do get back together, the proposal's fate seems uncertain, with Assembly Committee on Racing and Wagering Chairman Gary Pretlow skeptical of several provisions, including the one that would lower the minimum racing dates for the harness sport; and opposition from Mayor Bloomberg as well (though the Mayor hasn't had much luck swaying those in Albany).

I've posted before on the harness horsemen's fierce opposition to the measure, and some of us here were wondering where the thoroughbred horsemen stand. So, in playing catch-up after a few weeks of Breeders' Cup stuff, I was interested to read Matt Hegarty report late last month that the NYTHA supports the plan.

“Obviously, there are parts of it that we’re not happy with as horsemen,” Violette said. “There are some things to like and dislike. But the options aren’t nearly as clear-cut as some of the outsiders make it. When you dig really deep into it, you see that there are trade-offs, but OTB had dug such a deep hole, it was going to be painful for everyone to dig out of it.” [DRF]

Of course, they're not having their racing dates cut. One might think there would be a little solidarity amongst horsemen here, but I'm sure that the thoroughbred guys have long been watching the harness guys with slots envy, and are not looking much beyond their own new-found good fortune at this time.

It's the State Senate that is the preoccupied one of the two legislative chambers.

Gov. David Paterson had originally wanted lawmakers back today, but said with three Senate races still up in the air that appeared unlikely. [Politics on the Hudson]

Too busy with politics to bother governing I guess. The three races will determine which party has the majority in the Senate; and that will be the GOP if, amidst the court and ballot challenges, absentee vote counts and possible recounts, they hold on to the leads they currently have in two of the races.

I've read some say that Governor-Elect Andrew Cuomo might actually find it easier to execute his plan to cut spending and take on the unions with a Republican Senate (assuming of course that would-be Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos is not rewarding unions for investing with a company he works for). And that may very well be the case. However, in the video in which the governor-elect announced his candidacy, he articulated an unabashedly progressive agenda, including support for women's right to choose, marriage equality, abolition of the death penalty, "serious ongoing regulation" of Wall Street, global warming as a "real threat to our planet," a cry against discrimination, and the notion that "women still face a glass ceiling that must be shattered." The kind of stuff that could maybe start to get me a little excited about this guy.

Of course, you can forget about that stuff if the Republicans strut back into the Senate majority with their policy of 'no' that has been, temporarily I think and hope, vindicated by the recent national elections. Say what you will about the Senate Democrats, and I certainly have given the corruption, coups, and arrogance we've seen in their brief two year reign which seems likely to disintegrate to, at best, an unprecedented 31-31 tie whose consequences remain to be seen. But they did at least finally roll-back the Rockefeller drug laws, passed no-fault divorce, and at least managed to get gay marriage debated and voted on. You can forget about any progressive reforms under the GOP, who will be too busy redrawing voting districts to bother with anything resembling governance.

- Gotta mention the Jets' dramatic 26-20 OT victory in Cleveland which made them the first team in NFL history to win back-to-back overtime games on the road. So there, I mentioned it. In case you missed it...

Last Call for Goulash

Took a few days off. Hope you don't mind, and that everyone is doing well.

Saturday's second race winner at the Big A was first-time starter Lauburu ($5.60), a half-brother, by Unbridled's Song, to the champion Ashado....as well as G1 winner Sunriver and the graded winner Saint Stephen. Quite a productive little miss was their dam Goulash, who died last September. So Lauburu will be the last little Goulash that we'll see running around the track.

As for Ashado, you may recall that she was purchased as a broodmare prospect for $9 million by the Sheikh of Dubai in 2005. So, if you think that he only pisses his money away on Derby prospects and failed real-estate projects, you're wrong. As far as I can tell from researching on Pedigree Query, she's yet to produce a winner. Her first foal, a Storm Cat colt named Star Cat, never made it to the races; though he made it to stud, good for him.

It was quite a debut for Lauburu, who took a bobble at the start. He then stalked the pace-setting Five Sigma Event, wore down that stubborn foe in a tough stretch drive, and dug in to just barely last over 22-1 Break Up the Game. The latter was also making his debut, for trainer Shug McGaughey. Break Up the Game also has some impeccable pedigree credentials. He's by Bernardini, currently ranking #3 on the rookie sire list; out of Pennant Champion, a daughter, by Mr. Prospector, out of Personal Ensign, who was far, far more successful in her second career than Ashado. Pennant Champion is of course a half to G1 winners My Flag, Miner's Mark, and Traditionally.

Tuesday Morning Notes

[This post was pulled and edited to correct a stupid error for which I actually had a reasonable explanation but which I won't go into now. So? Sue me!]

Bobby Flay ran Sunday's marathon in just a shade over four hours. That race was run on concrete, as opposed to the turf course on which his juvenile Todd Pletcher-trained daughter of More Than Ready won the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf. More Than Real ($29.20), one of the horses I kicked myself for not having considering that I tabbed Winter Memories as one of the favorites to bet against, is out of a stakes-winning Dehere mare. The Juvenile Turf winner, Pluck ($14.80), also trained by Pletcher and sired by More Than Ready, is out of a mare by Fort Wood, a Sadlers Wells half-brother to the Juvenile winner Timber Country.

This year's Juvenile winner, Uncle Mo, was Pletcher's third winner of the Breeders Cup weekend. The son of Indian Charlie earned a Beyer of 108 for his dominant win. Two turns, no problem; he looked like a winner every single step of the way. Once again, he bounded home with aplomb, getting the last five-sixteenths in 30.66 after a third quarter in 24.41. That seems like an even pace over the last half mile plus. Pletcher said after the race that Uncle Mo runs fast for the entire race....though Randy Moss and Jerry Bailey raised the question of if he can do so at a certain classic distance. But we'll get to that next spring.

Despite the wins, it was a decidedly mixed weekend for the Toddster. The Kentucky Horse Racing Commission is looking into the Life at Ten fiasco now, which is too late as far as the bettors are concerned.

“From the time Life at Ten was brought to the paddock, saddled, led to the track for the post parade, warmed up and loaded into the starting gate, neither trainer Todd Pletcher nor jockey Johnny Velasquez voiced any concerns they may have had regarding Life at Ten to any racing officials, veterinarians or the outriders prior to the running of the Ladies Classic,” the KHRC said in a statement. [Bloodhorse]

Maybe not, but both of them voiced concerns on ESPN before the race to thousands of viewers. One thing that should come out of an inquiry is that the stewards and racing officials keep the TV on.

Whatsmore, Quality Road would have been better off balking at the starting gate this time; he finished last, and I mean dead last. He went off at 6-1, though I don't know who bet him....I don't recall hearing or reading of anyone who liked him. Many of us doubted his ability at the distance, but you also gotta wonder about the two months off before the race. I know he's run well fresh, but the horse seemed in fine fettle this past summer, and hardly one in need of a freshening.

Well, no worries, Quality Road is on to bigger and better things.

Zenyatta and Blame received Beyers of 111.

I wrote about Big Drama a few times, so I guess I should have had a straight win bet in there somewhere! Had him on top in some exactas, and I actually thought I was home at one point. Trevor Denman seemed to single out Warrior's Reward as the horse making the big move, so for a while there, I thought Hamazing Destiny was he, and was yelling for him like a rank amateur. I used him and Supreme Summit, who closed fast and missed the place spot by a head and a neck. Elsewhere in the near miss category was when Gio Ponti, who I didn't like at all, came on to beat The Usual Q.T. out for second behind Goldikova. And of course, there was my cold Zenyatta-Blame exacta. That one was kinda close.

Classic

We had guests over on Saturday evening. All non-racing fans, at least beyond the Kentucky Derby and an occasional day with us at Saratoga (and even one amongst that group expressed surprise that two of this year's Triple Crown races would be run at Churchill Downs). However, I didn't have to tell any of them who Zenyatta was, nor explain that much was at stake.

And, of course, I didn't have to explain the rules of the game, or how horse racing works or anything. It might seem complicated to us, with our Beyers and Moss figures and Sheets and bounces and trips and traps and pace and track bias and sires and dams and workouts and trainer patterns and class drops and so on, and so forth. But to the other 99% of the population, races, whether between horses, humans, dogs, turtles, or whom-or-whatever, are the simplest game in the world. They're off. And, as I've often argued in almost six years of blogging, watching races is nothing less than a human instinct. We stop and watch when kids race down a block, scream our heads off with nothing at stake at a silly animated race on a scoreboard at baseball games. And horse racing, specifically, is part of the American language, and is inexorably ingrained in our culture. (When's the last time that you saw a movie about video lottery terminals?) Enough so that I believe that whatever lies ahead in an assuredly uncertain future, horse racing will always attract enough participants to survive as a viable industry, if only as an occasionally newsworthy sports attraction.

So, other than assuring our guests not to worry when Zenyatta was so very far back at the beginning (and at the same time trying to convince myself of the same), nothing else needed to be said. When Mike Smith, after losing precious time and ground after finding the shortest paths home blocked off, finally set his mare down for her fateful drive towards history, the screaming and shouting and pleading and imploring began. It raised to a desperate crescendo, before crashing to a crestfallen "OH!" when she fell just short. I have no illusions that any of them will be calling me any time soon to ask me to take them to Aqueduct, or to explain how to bet a Pick Four. But I know that they will always vividly remember the dramatic race that we witnessed, recall the courageous mare with heartfelt adoration, and promptly forget the name of the horse who won.

They're lucky in that they won't concern themselves with pondering and debating over how to factor her loss into her legacy, and how she should, or shouldn't, rank with the great horses who have graced the sport in the past. Surely, there have been horses who actually enhanced their legends in defeat. In the case of Zenyatta, the localized nature of her campaign and the questions about the surfaces over which she raced left her with something to prove. So I don't know that her defeat to a very solid, but not great, racehorse in Blame can be said to not have damaged her legacy at all. However, as Randy Moss stated in his eloquent colloquy after the race, her place in history should be diminished 'just a little bit.' And, at least in the case of a dozen people watching the race in Rego Park, Queens, including myself, surely not at all.

BC Friday: A Tale of Two Tales

The first day of the Breeders' Cup is in the books, and I'll get to the actual races at some point soon. But the two bizarre incidents that book-ended ESPN's coverage - the ones that everyone will be talking about - surely demand attention. One of them will probably have too much made of it; the other couldn't possibly cause enough ado about something.

I don't think you could blame Calvin Borel for being pissed after the Marathon. Javier Castellano might be known as a clean rider as he was described on the broadcast. But there seems little doubt that he was clearly at fault for the near-downing of Martin Garcia aboard Romp, and the resulting contact with A.U. Miner that no doubt cost he and Borel a piece of the purse, if not the whole shebang considering the way he recovered and rallied for 4th. Castellano was rightly disqualified from second to 10th for steering Prince Will I Am out into the path of A.U. Miner to cause the chain reaction.

The scuffle and its aftermath (except the reported continuation of hostilities in the locker room) was caught close up on camera, in large part thanks to Jeanine Edwards' quick reaction in calmly calling for the cameras, and an alert director on the job. In my view, the fisticuffs between the two riders reflect no more poorly on the sport of horse racing than similar physical confrontations in other highly competitive and emotional contact-prone athletic competitions do on theirs.

After the two were broken up, there was one moron who tried to block the closest camera's view; I'd like to know who that guy was and who he works for. Maybe he was Borel's publicist. The crazed ferocity of the jockey's reaction provides the type of image that can overwhelm one's achievements and ultimately define his career, especially in the You Tube age. One example that comes to mind is Juan Marichal, the Hall of Fame pitcher who compiled a remarkable record of 243-142 and struck out over 2,300 batters in his 15 year career. Yet one of the first things that comes to my mind upon his mention is the image of him clubbing John Roseboro over the head with his bat. And you can't even find the video on You Tube.

If Borel was a baseball player and went that mental, you can just guess what people would be thinking. Instead of Calvin Bo-Rail, he'd be referred to as Calvin Bo-Roid. It took several beefy regular-size guys to hold him back. Borel has accomplished plenty enough on the racetrack to be inducted into his sport's Hall of Fame. But I imagine that this incident will always be an integral part of his legacy.

I've watched a lot of horse races on TV in my time, but I surely cannot recall anything comparable to what we witnessed on ESPN prior to - and during - the Ladies Classic. In case you missed it, Jerry Bailey asked John Velazquez during the warm0up how Life at Ten was taking to the Churchill track, and the jockey replied: "Right now I'm not sure, to tell you the truth. She's not warming up the way that she normally does." ESPN may have lucked into that stunning bit of inside info, but credit them for some excellent journalism afterwards. Jay Privman promptly sought out Todd Pletcher, who told him that the mare was "very quiet in the paddock. She was acting a little unusual." (If you have a tape, go to 13 minutes to post and you'll see exactly what the Toddster was talking about. And if you watch for a few minutes beyond that, you'll see that Pletcher was not at all forthcoming about those observations during an interview with Privman as the horses headed to the track.)

Bailey then asked Johnny V again, just a few minutes before post, if there had been any improvement. "Not really," he responded. And sure enough, Life at Ten, sent off as the 7-2 second choice to Blind Luck, showed no interest from the start and quickly lost contact with the field. Amazing, astounding, and not a good thing for the sport, especially as ESPN was touting the virtues of the first major racing event televised in "almost" prime-time.

So, plenty of questions here, all revolving around the main one of why Life at Ten was not scratched. Pletcher told the persistent and professional Privman afterwards that he told his jockey to make sure that she warmed up well....and that Velazquez asked the vets to look at her. However, Larry Bramlage, the on-call vet for the American Association of Equine Practitioners, told the Form: "Velazquez didn't say anything to the vet before the race." [DRF] It's certainly fair to question why he did not....and also to ask why the trainer, if he thought his mare seemed "almost sedated-like," as he told Privman, wasn't more explicit in his instructions to his rider about her being able to warm up properly, and what he should do if she didn't.

However, Bailey pointed out that "the attending vet is supposed to come over and ask 'is this horse ok?'" And Randy Moss said: "That's what the vet is at the starting gate for - to protect the public, to protect the horses, to protect the riders." Apparently, that did not transpire either. Ms. Edwards reported shortly before post time that Bramlage, when asked about the jockey's comments, told her that "the vets on the ground have not been made aware of the situation." However, Bramlage apparently had been! Is there no means of communication between he and those vets out at the starting gate?

I also wonder sometimes about the whole idea of these random pre-race interviews which occasionally - though never in my experience to this extent - make the viewers privy to information that other bettors lack. Not that ESPN shouldn't do its job of reporting as much relevant news as possible, and not to suggest that there be any form of censorship. But this is the type of incident that might make bettors feel as if they're better off watching at home than going to the track!

It's certainly quite clear that somebody should have said something to someone; and even Pletcher conceded that she "clearly should have probably not run." Of course, that clearly comes as probably small consolation to all of those who saw their money go down the drain.

- Hearing the Europeans' complaints about the turf course being too firm, and seeing Shared Account ($94) hold off favored Midway in the F&M Turf, I feel more emboldened to try and beat Goldikova in the Mile today. As I've mentioned before, The Usual Q.T. (15-1) has excellent form at this distance and seems at peak form at this time. And Proviso (12-1), trained by Mott, who sent out Unrivaled Belle ($17) to win, by the way, that Ladies Classic, is similarly sharp and enamored of the route.

I like Supreme Summit (15-1) in the Sprint; sharp synthetic shipper seems well worth the shot here should be around those odds. I saw that jp likes him too, and thought he'd be upset that I do, fearing that I was jinxing him. However, after seeing his picks for Friday, maybe it should be the other way around! Welsch didn't care for his workouts, but, then again, Switch sure ran pretty well, didn't she? Big Drama (7-2) is, I think, clearly the horse to beat. Warrior's Reward (12-1) likes the track, has reportedly worked quite well, and is poised to pick up a piece with a late rally.

Yes You Can

Well, it must be Breeders' Cup time because Joe Drape and the NY Times rolled out their ritual front-page-of-the-sports section column on the dark side of the sport.

You cannot hold a Breeders’ Cup, a series of championship races for the world’s best horses, without the issue of medications and illegal drugs coming up. [NY Times]

Well, actually, you can.

OK, I'm not going to do a formal handicapping post. I've been thinking out loud here over the last couple of weeks, and you know which horses I'm interested in....if you could possibly care. What do you need me for when you have experts like Drape? Besides, I want to keep my options open in the relative handful of races I'm interested in betting, at least as of now. There are a few races, like the Turf Sprint, that I honestly have barely even glanced at...and I'm looking forward to handicapping them during the day just like I would a 25K claimer at the Big A.

I don't really care for the order of the races on Saturday....and not because the Dirt Mile is the 9th, third to last on the day. Sure, it breaks up the continuity of the whole World Championship thing.....kinda like Good Charlotte playing between Sonic Youth and Guided By Voices (something to look forward to on the day after BC Saturday). But it is an awesome betting race. Would be a great way to start a Pick Three, or continue a Pick Four starting with the Mile leading up to the Classic, and Zenyatta, who, as jp has pointed out, figures to present better value in the multi-race wagers than she will in the win pool. Problem is that the Turf kinda sucks as a betting race, and figures to suck, period, should Workforce scratch, as appears likely to be the case.

Honestly, I don't really care much about the race either way; the Arc winner and some other Euro who's second choice against a field of highly mediocre American horses, yawn. Yeah, I'm sure you can tell I haven't paid much attention to racing overseas of late. There's plenty enough - some would argue far too much - of the sport over here. to keep us all busy.

A reader mentioned Haynesfield, and, as I've said, I do believe that he's developed into a serious racehorse. Mike Welsch has been ga-ga about this one, and wrote that he's a major upset threat if allowed to relax on the lead once again in his present form. Problem is that I don't believe that he will be able to relax on the lead in this field; I think it shapes up tough tactically. I really do like Blame to complete the exacta, and to take it all if Zenyatta falters for any reason at all.

As suebroux pointed out, Welsch hated the last workout by Switch, who, he says, "really fell apart during the latter stages after a quick beginning, drifting out coming to the wire and shutting down completely during her gallop-out." Oh. Sadler said the workout was fine, noting that the track was a little heavy, and that she actually worked six furlongs (in 1:13 1/5), not the five she was credited with. I like to say that I pay attention to workout reports when they reinforce my opinion, and consider them to be "too much information" when they don't. In this case, it will depend upon the odds. In any event, plenty of horses to like at fair odds if you're committed to beating Rightly So, as I am.

Posters on this TVG Community board noted that Steve Crist picked the filly despite his paper's clocker's opinion....and I don't know which makes me more wary of her. (Not because I think Crist is a fool, just because I tend to go off longshot-types when public handicappers start to pick up on them.)

BC Notes

I said I wasn't going to bother this year writing about stuff like how much it sucks to have a Breeders' Cup program on Friday. It really does suck though. Less so I guess however since they don't start until 4:10...and that's the Marathon, which I could care less about (sorry Figless). But, since they have the lights at Churchill, why not have the program even later? (Oh, yeah, college football on ESPN2, excuse me for even suggesting the idea.)

I'd like to get home early in time for the F&M Sprint, which is the only race on the day that I'm really interested in betting on anyway. Switch has been listed at 20-1, and I gotta think she's worth a play at that price (discussed the race here). The flip side of throwing out synthetic horses getting overbet on real dirt, is getting a good price on a sharp one who is maybe getting overlooked for the same reason. I think that Rightly So (3-1) is a deserving favorite who should be able to lead into the turn despite breaking from the 13 post. But, again, I sure wouldn't be shocked to see her get run down in the long stretch; and Sadler's filly sure seems worth a flyer at even half of those morning odds. (I've soured somewhat on Champagne D'Oro due to her poor draw)

In the Juvie Turf Fillies, I don't really get why Winter Memories would be listed as such a dominant choice (2-1) against a field loaded with young fillies that look just as promising as she. I mean, these are all lightly raced two year-olds that have raced against other lightly raced two-year olds. This one is best because she raced in New York? Who's to say that she's that much better than others in here that have also impressed in stakes company, like Kathmanblu or New Normal or More Than Real or Together (though the last three drew outside posts)? Seems to me that any of those would be worth a shot at double digit odds (as all but the last one are listed at). Tough, if not an impossible race....but I think this is exactly the kind of BC race in which it often pays to be skeptical of the betting favorite.

How about a few bucks just for fun on Wyomia (12-1), and for no other reason but that I absolutely love her breeding for grass? She's by Vindication (Seattle Slew) out of Beyond the Sun, a Kingmambo mare who is also the dam of the world record holder, at a mile and a quarter on grass, and G1 winner Red Giant. Look under her third dam, and you'll see grass horses such as the Euro champion Bosra Sham, the Group 1 winners Ciro (who also won the Secretariat on these shores), Hector Protector, Shanghai, Act One; Proskona, an Italian champion, the Grade 1 winners Internallyflawless and Passinetti, and a host of other horses that were accomplished on the surface. Wyomia improved after her debut when switching from turf to the Woodbine Poly; but she was also stretching out to two turns. Based on her pedigree, could have been that which prompted the turnaround; deserves another shot on the lawn here. (OK, so maybe that's two Friday races that I'm interested in betting on.)

Odds and Ends

That's Morning Line galloping at Churchill on Tuesday. He's the 7-2 favorite in the Dirt Mile. (And yes, you can actually find the complete fields and morning line odds on the Breeders' Cup site without having to get directions from Art Fern.)

Morning Line is one of the favorites, should he in fact be one, that I will definitely be betting against. Nice colt, this son of Tiznow, and he's shown the kind of improvement which suggests he could be peaking at the right time. But this will be a different game for Zito's colt, who has excelled in two-turn races, the last three at a mile and an eighth. This is a one-turn mile, the pace will be quicker, and the competition, which includes several who specialize at this route, will be far better than what he's faced before. I think he's a horse to leave off the tickets entirely should he be bet as oddsmaker Mike Battaglia expects. Here Comes Ben (6-1), Tizway (6-1), and Thiskyhasnolimit (10-1) (all of whom I discussed here), all seem like far better value to me.

Girolamo (3-1 in the Sprint) is another favorite I don't care for. This must be a really weak year for this division if this horse is favored. He excelled last year going a mile around one turn, though he surely didn't beat too much amongst the four he faced in the Jerome. He has just two races this year - 5th in his return in the Forego, and his win in the Vosburgh. That was his first six furlong race ever, and he was fairly impressive....but against what? As I've said before, you need to take the 1 and Grade 1 with a grain of salt these days. That Vosburgh field barely qualified as a Grade 3. The eight opponents accounted for a grand total of three graded stakes wins, a G2 and two G3's. I can't believe they, off that race, would make this horse the favorite over a horse like Big Drama (7-2), an established and consistent graded stakes horse over the last two years who has settled into a sharp groove since concentrating on sprints in 2010...and I discussed him in more detail here.

Harder for me than throwing Girolamo out is coming up with the right value horse to use on top. Atta Boy Roy (12-1) has impressive running lines, good speed and the ability to stalk, but has only a wasted turf effort to show over the last 2 1/2 months. Smiling Tiger (6-1) and Supreme Summit (15-1) ship in from California, and I'm interested in the latter at those odds. Unlike Smiling Tiger, Supreme Summit does have a couple of races over dirt, including a not-at-all bad 4th in a mile race at Gulfstream last March. Switched to the barn of Mike Puype, he's cut back to six furlongs for his two starts after a layoff, and comes off a career best effort, falling just short to Smiling Tiger in the Ancient Title. His late-running style may serve him quite well here, and owner Joseph Lacombe is putting up the big bucks to supplement him to the race. Warrior's Reward (12-1) likes the track and could also benefit from a contested pace.

Here's Goldikova (7-5), and whoever picked out this outfit must be colorblind. According to the morning line, this is strictly a three-way race between she, Paco's Boy (6-1), and Gio Ponti (4-1). Yes, the latter is in the Mile, and aren't I a jerk to think that the fact that her connections publicly indicated that she would run in the Classic and made it her first preference in the pre-entries meant anything.

The funny thing about Gio Ponti's past performance lines is that her Beyers are down a solid 6-10 points from last year. I don't really know if the Beyer figs mean any more on the turf than the seem to do on synthetic tracks. But if you think they are meaningful, the fact that Gio Ponti was nevertheless first or a close second in each of his four Grade 1 races this year can't bode very well for the North American turf division overall.

In any event, I'm not inclined to try and beat Goldikova, but I am surely willing to try and beat the second and third choices - Paco's Boy has to be considered a question mark in his North American debut despite his fine form overseas - to create some value in the exotics - and I've mentioned The Usual QT and Proviso as possibilities there.

And Zenyatta is ranked at 8-5, lower than I'd been seeing quoted overseas, but more sensible in my opinion. Lookin At Lucky (6-1) drew the far outside, and I'd have to consider that to be good news for the favorite's camp. Yeah, I know, I've been disparaging the three-year old crop, and him by extension. But his improvement and recent dominance is no doubt impressive, as his ability to handle different kinds of surfaces. His last eight races - five wins, and a tough luck second and third - have come over eight different tracks, with wins on synthetic, fast dirt, and slop. So he's growing on me; I'll definitely be working him into my tickets, and would take a flyer on top if Dirty wants to give me 15-1.

Here She Comes

Mike Smith awaits patiently, but anxiously, longing inside like a man awaiting his love after a brief separation, as Zenyatta arrives in Louisville. Well, not exactly (I hope), but something like that.




Zenyatta was then whisked away to Churchill like the queen that she is, with a police escort and hundreds lining the street to..... OK, I lied about that last bit. But, come race day, the fans will surely be crowding around her like she's the Mona Lisa or something.





(I've been waiting for a good excuse to post that photo.)

Zenyatta is a star, let's face it. She's officially spilled into the mainstream. Who's the last horse you remember getting an entire segment on 60 Minutes (followed by Andy Rooney talking wistfully about great horses of the past, about his days going to the races at Saratoga, and plugging the Secretariat movie). She was also profiled in W Magazine, and made it onto Oprah's Power List. (And I don't see no Rachel Alexandra on the 2009 list, that's right, girlfriend!)

It's too bad though that it took 19 races and three years for her to become this popular...and just before her final race too. No doubt part of the reason for that is because she rarely strayed east of California. But how could a horse break through to the mainstream press when the racing press has been so ambivalent about her itself? It's not the media's job to promote the sport. But I don't want to hear any of those naysayers complain that the sport lacks stars when it had one right under its snoot. It's not like I even totally disagreed with the main point that Beyer was making. I don't know if Zenyatta ranks among the all-time greats. I don't know that I could compare her campaign to those of horses like Forego, who conceded copious weight allowances to a legion of challengers, many of whom I feel could be champions if they raced today; or John Henry, who traveled all over the country and took on the best on any kind of surface. And the synthetic question is legitimate....though it will in my opinion become forever moot should she dominate on Saturday.

But why is there always this need in racing to place everything in historical context? Who cares? The game has changed. It will never be what it once was. There's very little, if anything, that stands the test of time nowadays. Zenyatta is a great horse of this time; should she win the Classic, quite arguably the best horse of the present century, the one in which we live. As time obscures the petty controversies around her, future generations will come to better appreciate her. It's too bad than some amongst us cannot (or will not) now.

Extra Extra

The Dirt Mile is my favorite of the extra races that were added to the Breeders' Cup event in 2007; and one of just two, along with the F&M Sprint, that I will consider for a serious wager. It always seems to attract a competitive field of horses not quite good enough to race for the big prize (though in some cases simply not suited for the distance), which may make for its inclusion as a "World Championship" ludicrous, but generally makes for an attractive betting contest featuring horses with North American form that one can make sense of. And isn't betting the whole idea?

On the other hand, I won't be wagering seriously on the two juvenile turf races, both of which feature a host of horses shipping in from Europe. Doesn't mean I won't throw a few bucks on a longshot based on breeding or a hunch. But you're just guessing when trying to judge the competitive merits of North American horses versus the European ones. Personally, I'd be just as happy if all of the BC races were limited to horses that have started at least once in North America.

Here Comes Ben comes into the Dirt Mile after a two month layoff following his win in the Forego, which came some ten weeks after he won the Kelly's Landing over the Churchill track. That relative lack of activity is my main concern regarding a horse that I otherwise really like in this spot. Always love to see a horse who improves at four in the way that he has, especially with the bulk of that improvement coming after he was switched exclusively to one-turn races such as this one (the first time that the Dirt Mile will actually be run at that distance, and around one turn). In fact, put a line through the races other than those, and Here Comes Ben has four wins and a second in five starts (four of them at Churchill, including his graduation at a mile). He'll be going a furlong longer than he did in his last three races, but I think that will only help given his late-running style, and the possibility of a contested pace up front.

Love the breeding too; he's by Street Cry out of a mare by Dayjur mare who's a half-sister to the dam of Albertus Maximus, who won this race in 2008, as well as to a couple of sprint winners overseas. And as far as that layoff goes, he demonstrated his sharpness last week in a bullet half mile work at Keeneland.

Here Comes Ben then galloped out five furlongs in a sensational 584/5 and six furlongs in 1:124/5. [Louisville Courir Journal]

“The track is admittedly very fast here right now,” [trainer Charles] Lopresti said at Keeneland. “But he did it very easily. I told my rider to just let him run from the eighth pole home, and he really exploded to the wire and galloped out strong. The best thing was that he wasn’t even blowing when he came back to the barn.” [DRF]

Thiskyhasnolimit is another one with improving form who has also shown that he likes one-turn races at Churchill. He ran his two best career Beyers in his last two, both of those around two turns, most recently his game second to Lookin At Lucky in the Indiana Derby. Here he cuts back to the distance at which he won the Iroqois on this track last year. Tough spot to face older horses for the first time, and I know I've been dissing the three-year old crop. But this son of Sky Mesa out of a Deputy Minister half-sister to Bernardini seems to be coming to hand at the right time for Asmussen, and looks dangerous to me at a price. Shows a couple of excellent works over the track too, and would love some rain.

Tizway also comes off a couple of career best Beyers, and in one-turn mile races too. Depending on the post draw and whether Morning Line and Tropic Storm opt for their first preference races instead, he could find himself with a perfect stalking trip behind just one (Mad Flatter) or maybe two (Vineyard Haven) others. Nothing sexy or creative about handicapping this one; he's simply an in-form runner who has the tactical speed and talent to make it to the winner's circle. Classy pedigree - he's by Tiznow, out of a Dayjur mare who's a half-sister to the Grade 1 winners Will's Way and Willa on the Move.

Mad Flatter could find himself alone on the lead, and is yet another coming off a string of career best efforts. Incestuously-bred son of Flatter is inbred 2x2 to the half-brothers AP Indy and Honor Grades.

Vineyard Haven has only raced twice this year, and doesn't show evidence of improvement at age four. He can beat me, pass. Crown of Thorns shows fine form on synthetic tracks, though he's lost his last five. Not like I automatically throw out horses making their first start on dirt, but the price has to be right. I'd be on him at 8-1, but he figures to vie for favoritism. Gayego had had a disappointing year until winning at Presque Isle; that's not enough to convince me that he's good enough here.

In the F&M Sprint, Switch is listed at 10-1 by the Form, which is the only site where I've been able to find a definitive list of the pre-entries for each race (and it includes the race charts and videos for most of the entries' last races. I read that there are official preliminary morning line odds, but don't try to find them anywhere on the official Breeders' Cup sites. Seriously, is that too much to ask? That the official Breeders' Cup site would have the official Breeders' Cup pre-entries and odds? Maybe they are there somewhere...please let me know if I missed them.

Anyway, I discussed Switch here in this post, and I like her here; this is the kind of synthetic track horse at the right kind of odds, that I'm willing to back. (Switch did run once on dirt, a 4th at Gulfstream earlier in the year.)

Rightly So appears to be the likely favorite, and she looks like possible, if not probable, lone speed. However, I for one wouldn't be surprised to see her get run down in the long stretch in the seventh furlong. The Ballerina, which she dominated while achieving a career best fig of 100, may be a Grade 1; but that doesn't mean that it was a great race. I just don't think much of the field she beat; nor of the one in the Bed O'Roses, despite the fact the latter produced three subsequent winners. There's more to determining how strong a race was than how many horses simply won their next time out. Get the Formulator pp's (a worthwhile investment for these races) and check it out in more detail. She just hasn't been running against great horses. So I'll look to beat her should she be favored as expected.

Besides Switch, Champagne d'Oro is another who has the tactical speed to track the speed, as she did before drawing off to win the Test with a career best fig of 97. This was the culmination of a string of improved efforts since cutting back to one turn after fading badly in the Ky Oaks. After two months off, she rallied moderately to finish 4th, behind a couple of others in here, at Keeneland. But I look at that race strictly as a prep, and a useful one at that. She prefers dirt anyway, and has been working in spectacular fashion at Churchill. “She'll be 10-1 and run like 3-5,” said trainer Eric Guillot. That's the kind of odds we like. She's by Medaglia D'Oro out of Champagne Flow, a Saratoga Six half-sister to the ill-fated Grand Canyon, runner-up in the 1989 Juvenile.

Informed Decision prefers synthetic, and seems to have slowed down this year. Dubai Majesty switches back to dirt after three sharp efforts on turf or synthetic. She has run well on dirt too. But she seems to prefer six furlongs and shorter.

Sunday Morning Notes

Made it to Belmont for a bit on Saturday, and that's a wrap on the meeting for me, as I'll be elsewhere today.

Saw a couple of interesting maiden races. This time of year we see two-year old maiden races at longer distances, and these were both at a mile. In the second, Buffum was 4-1 on the morning line, making his debut for Darley, who paid $1.2 million for the son of Bernardini as a yearling at Saratoga. So, when I saw him fluttering between 6-1 and 7-1, I put him in the "dead on the board" category; a notion reinforced when he drifted up to 8-1 at post time. Wrong. My dependence on the tote board is either the strongest or weakest aspect to my game, I can't decide. Buffum ($18.20) eased his way to the lead around the turn after a hot early pace, and held off another first time starter in Cool Blue Red Hot (of whom I made a similar judgment based on the tote....the Angel Penna Jr barn is not generally one to hide its enthusiasm on a debut runner). The winner bore out under left-handed whipping, and a good job by David Cohen to straighten him out just in time to avoid fouling his rival, who did concede ample ground on the big turn for home. Joe Vann was an awful favorite at even money and checked in last, and I'm not red-boarding....left him off my tickets entirely.

Buffum is out of Storm Beauty, a stakes winning Storm Cat mare who's a half sister to the champion sprinter Gold Beauty, who is the dam of Dayjur, a horse who always brings back memories around Breeders Cup time.



The 4th was for the girls, and Royal Delta ($16.40), another first-timer, dominated after an eventful trip. No need to go to the videotape when we had our descriptive chart-caller on hand.

ROYAL DELTA, away in good order, was allowed to settle into stride down the backstretch, was guided into the three path departing the half mile pole, galloped into contention, displaying a tough of greenness in the process, encountered a wall of rivals spread out four deep, reacted kindly to the solid hold put to her by the rider, bided time behind the traffic, dove to a newly-created opening along the four path coming to the five-sixteenths pole, was forced to swing out an additional path turning for home, cruised to the front, being asked for the barest amount of speed, then proceeded to draw off to an authoritative victory while being ridden out to the finish line.

Royal Delta, a rare first-out winner for Bill Mott, is by Empire Maker, out of the graded stakes winner (on grass) Delta Princess, a full sister (by AP Indy) to the G1 Garden City winner Indy Five Hundred. So, wouldn't be surprised to see Royal Delta try the grass at some point.

- So it's on to the Big A, for what will presumably be the last meeting there conducted under the current dilapidated conditions. The groundbreaking ceremony did take place on Thursday, and, in this case, let's go to the videotape.



As I expected (and as the mainstream media subsequently reported as "news" [yawn]), the Senate Democratic leadership vilified in the AEG report did not show up. I mean, did anyone consider for a second that they would??? That's NYRA Chairman C. Steven Duncker talking at the end about the good fortune that NYRA and the racing industry has apparently lucked into after all these years. Still seems too good to be true, doesn't it? Nobody really deserves to get "credit" for it; I know that the governor is saying that he changed the process in a way that led to this result, but that, of course, wouldn't have happened if he hadn't allowed the prior round to spiral beyond his control.

A reader reminded me the other day that I myself had grown exasperated enough to be willing to settle for AEG once they were selected. Can't say I'm at all proud of myself for that little bit of misjudgment....but I was not the only one who was that fed up as I recall.

Overrated

This is Proviso galloping at Churchill yesterday...again, this photo is courtesy of Churchill Downs (and thanks to them for having the good taste to include yours truly on their media list). Goldikova might be the most tempting horse to single on the Saturday card. But I think that this mare is one, listed at double-digit odds (along with The Usual Q.T., who I mentioned previously), who is eligible to provide some value underneath. She's proven to be no match for the two-time defending Mile champ in the past. But all she's done this year is win four Grade 1's in a row, running just a bit faster (according to the Beyers, anyway) each time, for trainer Bill Mott, who took over from the late Bobby Frankel this year.

Gio Ponti is entered in the Mile, but as you probably know, will be going in the Classic instead where, as far as I'm concerned, he's a dead-on no-doubt-about-it throwout in his first race on real dirt. Just another case, like Paddy O'Prado, of a turf horse caught in the middle of the Mile and the Turf, and taking a shot on dirt for no other reason than possible breeding shed glory. Well, fine with me, just subsidizes the odds on the others, in my opinion.

Zenyatta galloped a mile and a half at Hollywood Park, and her trainer says: "She looks just terrific.....Her weight is great, her coat is perfect." And her exercise rider, Steve Willard, said:

“Is superb adequate enough?....Judging by her aggressiveness, she’s training really forwardly. If I gave her her head, she’d go [three furlongs] in 35 and change. Her mind is in a different place.” [DRF]

There might be a lot of good horses and compelling races on the two Breeders' Cup cards (though also several races that I personally couldn't care less about). But let's face it, all of it - Goldikova included - is just a preliminary for the Classic, which, in turn, is just a showcase for Jerry Moss' spectacular, undefeated champion. Win or lose. What an amazing story for this mare to take her 19 for 19 record into this final race of her career. Only the bitter sourpusses of the world, those who just can't bring themselves to accept change and innovation in the name of the attempted betterment of the sport (especially when it poses a threat to their own methodologies and perception of how races should be run), would possibly be rooting against her. I mean, in the name of playing the game, I might bet on others, especially if Dirty really wants to give me 10-1 on Blame. But, even if she beats you, if you can't enjoy a deep appreciation what she would then have accomplished, then I think you should just be playing the slots, or some other game with less takeout and better odds of success.

And I don't see why she can't and won't end her career in the storybook fashion that we all...or at least most of us....would like to see. I'm not buying this stuff about this being amongst the deepest and/or most talented Classic field ever. I think it's being way overrated. You have the two throwouts I mentioned above, plus a collection of some pretty nice horses - including some three-year olds from a terribly mediocre crop - whose success I would attribute mostly to the general deterioration in quality that we have in racing today. Zenyatta aside, I would venture to say that there's not a horse in this race - with the possible additional exception of Quality Road, who, however, is not going to last the mile and a quarter distance - who's nearly as talented as any of the three horses who battled to the wire in that very first Classic. And I say that knowing full well that none of those three are even close to ranking amongst the all-time greats of the game.

BC Notes and Photos

- I'm on the Churchill Downs media list and been getting photos, so I thought I'd share a couple.







Here's Uncle Mo arriving at the track from New York, where he breezed a half in 49 4/5 on Sunday, his first work since the Champagne. Just ten pre-entered against him for the Juvenile.






He arrived, along with several other BC runners, just Tuesday afternoon. So no, he was not the Rand Paul supporter who stomped on the head of the woman from Move On before a Kentucky Senate debate on Monday night. Good thing for her I'd say.

The Juvenile is usually a race that I look to take shot somewhere. After all, it's like a blank canvas for these young horses, especially these days when they've raced so little. And it's often the case, as with Uncle Mo this year, that the favorite is trying two turns for the first time. But this year, the picture is especially uncertain - each and every one of the 11 juveniles will be running around two turns and on real dirt (in North America) for the first time (the 'in North America' is for Murjan, who raced at a mile in Peru). So while it's against my principles to bet a favorite who's doing something he or she has never done before, in this case Uncle Mo is surely not alone. So I'm thinking of him as a single candidate at this point. It certainly appears as if the route won't be a problem considering the way he's finished. Though that's all I have to go on really; not much on the catalog page, really, for this son of Indian Charlie out of a minor stakes placed daughter of the Super Derby winner Arch.



- Here's Haynesfield working over the track for the second time; this one a bullet (out of 7) six furlongs in 1:13 3/5. Asmussen's colt figures to face tactical problems given the presence of other speedy types like Quality Road, First Dude, and the improving Morning Line, but it certainly seems to me that he's a serious racehorse at this time.




Here's Switch breezing five furlongs in 1:00 1/5 (2/32) for the F&M Sprint....and this will be a switch for Switch, and in more than one respect. John Sadler's three-year old daughter of Quiet American has been routing of late, and comes off her career-best effort running second to Zenyatta in the Lady's Secret. But Sadler sounds like a man with a plan.

"I am not sure she wants a mile and eighth as a three-year-old....If the Sprint was six furlongs, she would not run but it is not really a 'sprint' sprint. Seven-eighths to a mile is her best distance. Next year we can come back in the (Ladies') Classic at a mile and an eighth." [BRIS]

She's also moving to real dirt, on which she's only raced once, a 4th in the Bonnie Miss at nine furlongs. She sure seems to love CD though; this work follows a bullet (of 40) half in 47 flat last week.

Breaking Ground

- Another press event at the Big A, on Thursday, this time to break ground on the construction of the racino.

Elected officials, union representatives and South Queens residents will launch project creating 2,100 jobs and generating more than $300 million in annual state revenue.

Governor Paterson will be among the scheduled speakers. On Tuesday, the governor proudly proclaimed that the AEG report "clears me of any wrongdoing, which I am very happy about." And it's true. Sure, he was criticized for acquiescing to the Senate Democrats' demand; but, on the other hand, the report emphasized just how insistent they were being. He was also criticized for choosing the advisors who chose not to advise him of the pertinent information provided by the Lottery. And that's fair I suppose, if a little bit of a stretch. But I'd say that he definitely comes off as the most innocent of the elected officials portrayed in the report....not that that's saying too much.

I'm gonna guess that neither Senator John Sampson nor Malcolm Smith will be there. Nor even Senator Eric Adams, even though you'd normally expect the chairperson of the Senate Racing, Gaming and Wagering Committee to be present to mark such a long awaited and significant occasion. But the AEG report concluded that Adams "was instrumental in persuading the Governor in January 2010 that the Senate was standing firm with its choice of AEG." Among other things, that makes the fact that Adams was one of the senators who was targeted to receive donations from AEG particularly concerning. And Adams was another whose testimony was labeled "incredible," "regarding a pivotal dinner with the Governor and Senator Sampson which was contradicted by both Governor Paterson and Senator Sampson, in an apparent effort to limit his involvement and responsibility in the choice of AEG."

I would expect however to see Senator Joseph Addabbo Jr. appear, even though he drew attention in the report too for being ignorant on pertinent facts of the situation even though he represents the district.

I dunno, if I was a Democrat, with the election coming up in a few days, I personally wouldn't want to be anywhere near that track on Thursday morning. Sure, we have what appears to be a happy ending, with a big upfront fee, an enthusiastic and cooperative vendor, and creation of jobs. But isn't it too soon after too damaging a report, and too close for comfort, to an election, and to the subject at hand to be providing photo opportunities at this point?