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Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Breeders Cup Notes

The Sprint has picked up some more entries, including Atta Boy Roy, who figures to be a stout factor on the front end. And besides being fast, he's a five-year old who has developed into a steady triple-digit Beyer horse with three wins and two seconds on the dirt this year. Supreme Summit was supplemented for $100,000 and will be hoping that the Atta Boy Roy ensures that the pace is hot.

I guess this isn't a great development for Big Drama, who doesn't need to be on the lead, but who likes to track up close. I think he's coming up to the Sprint in extremely promising fashion. I love the way this son of Montbrook has developed, building on the promise he showed winning five in a row at age two, culminating in the Delta Downs Jackpot. Though he won just one in five at three, he acquitted himself pretty well; dq'd in the Swale, 5th in the Preakness, caught late in the W Va Derby at nine furlongs. But this year, trainer David Fawkes has him committed to sprinting, and with excellent results - two wins, two game bad-start seconds in Grade 1's. He's working up a storm down at Calder, and I personally think he's the horse to beat; at least tactical issues aside. There's not tons of speed here, but as you know, sometimes things just get out of hand on the front end in this race.

I was surprised to read in Haskin's column about the early wagering on the Classic overseas.

Lookin At Lucky is getting heavily supported in Europe, with William Hill, Ladbrokes, and Stan James all listing him as co-favorite with Zenyatta at 4-1. The other major bookmakers have it close with Zenyatta 7-2 and Lookin At Lucky 4-1. If you like Blame or Quality Road, you’ll find value, with Blame between 6-1 and 7-1 and Quality Road 7-1 to 9-1. Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I) winner Haynesfield is pretty much 8-1 all around. [Bloodhorse]
Gosh, I don't see that at all. Sure, Lookng At Lucky is on a roll, and he's a nice colt and all; but they must think a lot more of our three-year old crop than we do. I'd have to be on Blame at 6 or 7-1.

24 Comments:

Anonymous said...

What race will be won by the biggest price? My guess is the dirt mile or the sprint.

El Angelo said...

Turf Sprint.

Anonymous said...

What price will Sidney's Candy be in the mile? 12-1? Or am I way off?

DiscreetPicks said...

Higher than he should be. That much I can guarantee.

Anonymous said...

Thanks DC. I was really hoping so. I'm sure you saw in harrington's workout report he wasn't doing as well leading into his most recent race, and I even thought the "pending sale" was made up as an excuse to keep him from getting beat, but it is in fact true. The price is being negotiated between 3 and 4 million. (I know you take the money in this game, but it's amazing Jenny would sell the horse her late husband was so close with and the one who carries his name)

BTW I'm still enamored with Twirling Candy, who wasn't himself last out.

Dirty

DiscreetPicks said...

Speaking of the Mile, Rip Van Winkle has been retired.

DiscreetPicks said...

Btw, i still like Twirling Candy also. Very much. It's my understanding though that Sadler is passing on the Breeders Cup, and pointing him instead to the Malibu.

DiscreetPicks said...

Regarding Sidney's Candy's finla pre-Oak Tree Mile drill, i don't think it means a whole lot. Obviously he wasn't going to be 100% cranked for that race, and itr's also worth noting that his pre-LaJolla drill came on turf, whereas this one came on the main track. I doubt it was a very serious drill.

El Angelo said...

Completely disagree on Sidney's Candy. I think he'll be the 3rd or 4th choice and around 6-1.

Anonymous said...

Goldikova 5/4
Rip Van Winkle 5/1
Paco Boy 7/1
Gio Ponti 8/1
Proviso 10/1
Sidneys Candy 10/1
Wasted Tears 14/1
Courageous Cat 16/1
Court Vision 16/1
Fuisse 16/1
General Quarters 16/1
Get Stormy 16/1
Battle Of Hastings 20/1
Interactif 20/1
Tizdejavu 20/1
Loup Breton 25/1
The Usual Q T 25/1
Phola 33/1
Public Speaker 33/1
Victors Cry 50/1


From William Hill. They're good until the 23rd, but they certainly might change with Rip out.

Figless said...

LAL odds do not surprise me.

A few weeks ago I predicted 7-2 on LAL, the best of the three year old crop always gets support.

Dont remember EXACTLY what I wrote at the time, something like this which pretty much agrees with the overseas futures;

Z 2-1
LAL 7-2
Blame 5-1
QR 6-1
Rest 10-1 or more

I will look for a bomb.

Terrific betting card Saturday at Belmont, NY Bred Showcase day.

El Angelo said...

On the Mile, my uneducated guess:

Goldikova: 4-5
Pavo Boy: 7-2
Gio Ponti: 4-1
Sidney's Candy: 8-1

Then a bunch at 15-1 or higher.

Anonymous said...

He went from 6-1 to 8-1 in 12 hours?

jk said...

This is interesting, there is an ongoing criminal investigation.....


http://tinyurl.com/24jyow7

Watchdog accuses state Senate officials of self-dealing in Aqueduct casino bid

9:59 AM, October 21, 2010 ι By BRENDAN SCOTT

ALBANY – A state watchdog has released a scathing report this morning accusing Senate Democratic Leader John Sampson and other top Senate officials of favoritism, cronyism and political self-dealing in the doomed selection last winter of a casino operator for the Aqueduct Race Track.

alan said...

Here's a link to the entire 308 page document. The only possible surprise to us here at LATG is that the corruption was even worse than we suspected. And again, it's the brazen nature of the whole escapade that is so amazing, since everyone suspected from the very start that the Senate Dems favored AEG.

DiscreetPicks said...

Keeneland - Race 5

#9 Rampaige (7/2 ml)

Firster for Graham Motion worked heads-up on three separate occasions (and at two different tracks) with Philology, who came out of those drills to run a good second on Saturday. Also note the presence of John Velazquez, who owns a sparkling 5-for-11 record with Motion @ Keeneland over the last couple of years. Looks very live.

One other horse i need to mention here is #11 Shadow Warrior (10/1 ml). He's easily the best-bred horse in the race, being by AP Indy out of Victory Ride, who was a pretty solid stakes filly several years back. More importantly though, Shadow Warrior worked heads-up on Oct 10 with Cane Garden Bay, who came out of that drill to win for this trainer last Saturday. Prior to that, he also worked heads-up with Veiled Prophet, an older allowance winner who ran 4th in a graded stakes earlier this year. Might make for a nice exacta if they run in together.

Anonymous said...

My form is at the house waiting for me, but i got down just on general principal. Regardless of outcome thank you DC.

Dirty

Anonymous said...

Huge race from Rampaige. I owe you a couple beers next time I'm in Vegas.

Anonymous said...

Look West seems to have caused a little trouble for the 11 who was closing fast too.

DiscreetPicks said...

Rampaige wins @ $6.20

Anonymous said...

The only thing Sidney's Candy will be doing is sniffing Goldikova's and Paco Boy's asses as they whiz by him at the eighth pole.

But because he's based on the west coast, Dirty thinks he's the second coming. I suppose he could be dangerous if he's allowed to walk on the front end, but man he'll have to deal with some serious heat in the final furlong.

Paco Boy is the value here. I also think Courageous Cat had a nice comeback race and should be set up to run well. -jp

Figless said...

I too thought CC had a nice tightener, with some traffic issues, and may be a factor at a price, but beating the Euros is still and uphill battle.

He will be on my tickets.

El Angelo said...

See, while Euros do well in the Mile, they rarely dominate the order of finish. In the last 13 years, we've only had two races where two Euros finished in the money: Domedriver-Rock of Gibraltar in '02 ran 1-2 and Antonius Pious-Six Perfections ran 2-3 in '04. It's worth noting that both Domedriver and AP were bombs.

Just something to consider regarding Paco Boy in the Mile. I like Americans to round out the triples; I agree on Courageous Cat, and think Court Vision is being ignored.

Anonymous said...

JP - Have you ever had a winner? You're gonna be so excited when you finally do! And we're gonna be so proud of you too.

Dirty