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Wednesday, October 27, 2010

BC Notes and Photos

- I'm on the Churchill Downs media list and been getting photos, so I thought I'd share a couple.







Here's Uncle Mo arriving at the track from New York, where he breezed a half in 49 4/5 on Sunday, his first work since the Champagne. Just ten pre-entered against him for the Juvenile.






He arrived, along with several other BC runners, just Tuesday afternoon. So no, he was not the Rand Paul supporter who stomped on the head of the woman from Move On before a Kentucky Senate debate on Monday night. Good thing for her I'd say.

The Juvenile is usually a race that I look to take shot somewhere. After all, it's like a blank canvas for these young horses, especially these days when they've raced so little. And it's often the case, as with Uncle Mo this year, that the favorite is trying two turns for the first time. But this year, the picture is especially uncertain - each and every one of the 11 juveniles will be running around two turns and on real dirt (in North America) for the first time (the 'in North America' is for Murjan, who raced at a mile in Peru). So while it's against my principles to bet a favorite who's doing something he or she has never done before, in this case Uncle Mo is surely not alone. So I'm thinking of him as a single candidate at this point. It certainly appears as if the route won't be a problem considering the way he's finished. Though that's all I have to go on really; not much on the catalog page, really, for this son of Indian Charlie out of a minor stakes placed daughter of the Super Derby winner Arch.



- Here's Haynesfield working over the track for the second time; this one a bullet (out of 7) six furlongs in 1:13 3/5. Asmussen's colt figures to face tactical problems given the presence of other speedy types like Quality Road, First Dude, and the improving Morning Line, but it certainly seems to me that he's a serious racehorse at this time.




Here's Switch breezing five furlongs in 1:00 1/5 (2/32) for the F&M Sprint....and this will be a switch for Switch, and in more than one respect. John Sadler's three-year old daughter of Quiet American has been routing of late, and comes off her career-best effort running second to Zenyatta in the Lady's Secret. But Sadler sounds like a man with a plan.

"I am not sure she wants a mile and eighth as a three-year-old....If the Sprint was six furlongs, she would not run but it is not really a 'sprint' sprint. Seven-eighths to a mile is her best distance. Next year we can come back in the (Ladies') Classic at a mile and an eighth." [BRIS]
She's also moving to real dirt, on which she's only raced once, a 4th in the Bonnie Miss at nine furlongs. She sure seems to love CD though; this work follows a bullet (of 40) half in 47 flat last week.

26 Comments:

Anonymous said...

What about Rogue Romance? Already showed a devastating turn of foot going 2 turns in the Bourbon on grass. Son of Smarty Jones... think he'll take to the Churchill Dirt?

Figless said...

Pre entries are out?

Missed that, yawn.

Just not interested this year for some reason.

Back on dirt, I should be all pumped up, but other than the Classic I simply couldn't care less.

Anonymous said...

Always a fun event to see the best horses run.

I think Uncle Mo is the bet-against of the day.

Both Zenyatta and Goldikova are difficult to oppose with any level of confidence, but I think Lookin At Lucky might have a shot in the classic. I'm souring on Blame based on his sheet. -jp

El Angelo said...

The best bet of the weekend is probably going to be Midday. Her competition is a lot easier than Zenyatta's or Goldikova's.

DiscreetPicks said...

Stopped in @ the Wynn last night, and saw these head-to-head matchups posted:

Blame -110
Zenyatta -120

Quality Road +110
Blame -140

Lookin at Lucky +105
Zenyatta -135

Musket Man +115
Fly Down -145

Anonymous said...

Musket Man will need to catch a horse van at the quarter pole if he wants to win the classic. He'd be interesting in the BC Sprint. -jp

Anonymous said...

Uh-oh. Me and Jp feel the exact same way. BTW is El Angelo still taking my 10-1 on Blame? We should set that up. And I'll give him 2-1 if he wants to bet zenyatta vs. Match race, regardless of winner.

Dirty

Anonymous said...

I think Zenyatta has a more powerful closing kick than the van Musket Man would be taking.

Anonymous said...

Interesting props DiscreetPicks. I guess the Wynn realizes Zenyatta will be a substantial underlay in the pari-mutual pools.

Anonymous said...

Now if the BC telecast would do the right thing and bring back Durkin, and get rid of the horrible Trevor Denman. -jp

Figless said...

I would take Musket Man over Fly Down head to head.

Anonymous said...

Musket Man will try his eyeballs out. Unfortunately the poor feller can't run this far. He's been an overachiever his whole career, thanks to a big heart. Hell, he should have gotten the place in the Derby since Pioneer of the Nile impeded him in deep stretch. But they should run him in the sprint, or the dirt mile. They (meaning his connections) are possibly retarded. -jp

ljk said...

Single Uncle Mo and leave "Boys" off your ticket at your peril.

El Angelo said...

Dirty, I'm still down for the generous 10-1 you're giving out on Blame. The horse has better than a 10% chance to win the race, making it a positive expectation bet.

alan said...

jp - Please elaborate on what you see on the sheets that makes you not like Blame. I'd be down on him at 10-1 as well.

Figless said...

jp excellent call on musket man, would be one of the top choices in the dirt mile, guess the connections want the glory of being in the big race.

no shot in classic, but he should finish ahead of fly down due to his heart so would bet him in the prop bet.

I am against blame, do not think he truly wants ten furlongs vs. top runners.

LAL, perhaps, at the right price.

Anonymous said...

First of all, I would strongly consider Blame at 10-1. But we all know Dirty, while entertaining, is a fruitcake. Blame's raceday odds are more likely to be 5-1, so I can't blame anyone who takes the 10-1. Blame's sheet is a tough read. He is eligible to run back to his big performances at CD and Saratoga, which would put him in the mix. His last race was a bit troubling for me, though I suppose you could say he didn't love the surface and he had no pace to run at. Or you could say those two races earlier in the year knocked him out. I rate him as 3rd most likely winner behind Zenyatta and Lookin At Lucky, which means I don't have much of an edge in this race. -jp

Anonymous said...

Alan - I didn't wanna hand out 10-1 to everyone, but you've certainly earned it for all your hard work here. I'll take $100 worth of Blame @ 10-1 from you if you want it.

Dirty

You might have to take a little fee to keep AE's and my own cash in escrow until we settle too....

Anonymous said...

JP - You haven't had a winner. EVER. Post one please, and don't change the subject.

Anonymous said...

Calm down, dude. I don't have any deep need to prove anything to anyone here. -jp

alan said...

Yeah, don't pick on jp. He did go see Belle and Sebastian after all. (Though they played a short set.)

Anonymous said...

As it so happens, I think I've made something like four picks on LATG. I'm 0-4. Oh well. As I've admitted in the past, I'm not a winning player (unlike 99% of folks in on-line chatrooms, who somehow are perennial winners). That said, Alan himself can attest I had a very nice score in the '05 BC. But really, who fucking cares? I play 8-10 times/year. If I bet $100 in a race, it's a big bet for me. Been to a bunch of Derbies, Breeder's Cups, etc, and I love the game. Maybe some day I'll hit it big. Maybe not. To quite Fred Flintstone, "Yabbadabbadoo!" -jp

Figless said...

jp wrote

" His last race was a bit troubling for me, though I suppose you could say he didn't love the surface and he had no pace to run at. Or you could say those two races earlier in the year knocked him out."

I would add; Or you could say he just is not his best longer that nine furlongs. The fact that he could not catch Haynesfield at 10f is very troubling to me, no matter the pace.

I am seeking a longshot to key under Z and LAL in TRI and SF, but having trouble finding one, not the deepest field ever assembled.

Figless said...

Off topic I am very disturbed by the current article in the T Times in which Sanan all but admits the BC is permanently moving to SA once things are worked out.

One reason is they plan to charge PSL's.

While I am not boycotting the big event in totality I am very frustrated with the direction of the BC board in recent years, and paying them back by not going "all in" as I have in prior years.

They are completely self centered now, concerned solely with their bottom line while forgetting the every day fan and small owner/breeders.

Now that finances are stablized, I sincerly hope NYRA begins to compete directly with them creating a one day, big money card in the original BC format at original BC purse levels with a national TV contract.

Anonymous said...

The same Tom Durkin who consistently blows calls? The same one who talks about quality road like he's already won at the quarter pole? The same one who blew the derby call 2 years back?

Anonymous said...

Yes, Durkin isn't perfect. I actually thought his derby call in 2009 was funny because it was so absurd that Mine That Bird was in the process of winning the race. Either way, he's much more entertaining the Trevor Denman, who has the wit of a show pony. Sorry -- it's not enough to have a cutesy British accent. The guy is not in Durkin's league as a race caller. -jp