- Jay Cronley, writing on ESPN.com, has several hints on how to find that elusive 50-1 shot, assuring us that it doesn't have to be the person betting his middle daughter's birthday.
Lugging in.That second point is a different way of looking at things than I'm accustomed to; but I suppose that's what looking for such high odds entails. Ofttimes I won't even get past the career record at the top of the pp's for a horse like that. But I suppose it's somewhat similar to the notion that a pitcher has to be pretty good to lose 20 games in a season. That guy is at least sound enough physically to take the ball every five days, and the fact that he stays in the rotation long enough to accumulate so many losses means he can't be that terrible. I can think of one team that I'm sure wouldn't mind finding some 20 game loser to throw into a game right now!
Not a weakness, like drifting, which suggests fatigue. Horses that lug toward the rail are usually trying hard. They're most often toward the front and don't produce gigantic tickets next time out. But it's not always a warning sign as many assume.
Horses that are around 1 for 30 in non-winners of two.
The one thing you can usually say about a regular plodder is it is probably reasonably healthy.
Which is more than you can say about lightly raced and declining cheap mummies that seem to ache to the touch.
On the other hand, Davidowitz, in his latest DRF Plus column on Avoiding costly mistakes, reminds us that it's "rarely, if ever" a good idea to bet a frequent bridesmaid to win. He's talking about a different situation, that in which the horse is habitually overbet due to his close finishes. But if we look at his suggested exceptions to his rule, and think in terms of Cronley's suggestion, perhaps we can come up with, if not 50-1 shots, at least some winners that are worthwhile.
When a frequent bridesmaid gets a positive trainer change, or is switching racing surfaces or distances to conform to a breeding strength or the statistical strength of a new trainer, such a horse may overcome his losing habit. At that moment however, it is wise to demand some value before you get on board for a minor reversal of fortune. No advantage can be gained anticipating major improvement when the rest of the betting public is jamming their money in the win pool as if the change is guaranteed to produce the elusive victory. [Daily Racing Form (subscription only)]- Santa Anita ain't no Del Mar, at least based on the first day of racing on the new Cushion Track. In the third race, Johnny Eves went wire to wire in 1:08.05. It was a mix of speed and closers, though the latter dominated as the card wore on. Richard Migliore told the LA Times:
"I really like this track, it feels good. There's a lot of similarity to Hollywood Park. Even though those horses went legitimate fractions, nobody really melted down late. They're handling it fine.Dancing Edie, making her first start since running second in the G1 Macbee at Del Mar on Aug 4, shortened up and took the feature on the downhill course. You had to go back to June, 2005 to find her last race under a mile. Dancing Edie set the early pace in the F&M Turf last year, but will instead point to either the $1 million E.P. Taylor at Woodbine or the Las Palmas at Oak Tree.