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Thursday, November 22, 2007

Friday Morning Notes - Nov 23

- Going Wild proved stubborn to the end in the opening day feature at Fair Grounds according to the race chart, but couldn't hold off Stormin Baghdad, and gee, aren't we happy for those connections? But I'm getting closer to picking a winner, so let's forge on with today's Clark Handicap at Churchill.

I thought before the Breeders' Cup Classic that Diamond Stripes was the unlikeliest winner of the race, but he's back in his Grade 2 element here. Richard Dutrow actually chose the Classic because he thought the horse would like the slop, but he floundered badly in the muck and mire. He had seven triple digit Beyers in a row prior to that race, and ran a great third over this track in the Foster in June. Dutrow is on fire, at least in New York, where he's nine for 23 (39%) after saddling two more winners on Thursday. Going Ballistic is the only three-year old in the field. I know he didn't beat much in the Oklahoma Derby (at least compared to this race), but you should really check out his dead last to easy winner effort. It's not often, if ever, that you see a horse make that move so quickly, powerfully blowing by his opponents while widest of all, coming from over 20 lengths back. He got a career best 101 Beyer for the effort, has had four weeks to recover, and has worked up a storm at Remington. Another step forward and he could be right there. Fairbanks looks like the main speed and should be hard to run down with Prado. Istan, the 5-2 morning line favorite off his 111 Beyer romp in the Ack Ack, is one of three horses who are making their final starts. He stretches out and encounters better animals here.

1 Comment:

Dave B said...

I'm willing to toss Diamond Stripe's Classic on the basis of the track condition and frankly I like it when a trainer wheels a horse back fairly promptly after faltering in an ambitious spot. That says to me that he took a shot with a sharp horse and while it didn't work out, he's still sharp. Guess we'll see but I think he's very bettable here. I like him more than Cosmonaut and I backed that one in the Breeder's Cup.