Getting It Out of My System

- The only time I get embarrassed about a horse that I pick on this blog is when it goes off way above its morning line and runs like it. If I select a 6-1 shot, and he goes off at 9-2, that in itself gives the pick some merit in my mind. But if it opens at 10-1, and goes off at 14-1, I often take it as a message that it was just a bad pick, and that I've been rebuffed by my fellow horseplayers.

The later was the scenario on Wednesday, when I picked Calagaitor in the 7th at Aqueduct. One reader immediately spotted the folly and attempted to save me from myself. Calagaitor ran a non-threatening seventh, and it was the latest in a long series of losing selections. Perhaps I should take a break.

Or I can follow the advice of my childhood friend Jake, who taught me most of what I know about betting races. When he would go cold, he would make as many bets as possible as soon as possible, under the theory that he could get all of his losing bets out of his system; after awhile, percentages dictate that things have to turn around, and the sooner the better.

That may indeed be absurd. But regardless, I'm going to forge on, and try to handicap one race here each day. In a perverted twist on NYRA's SHOWdown contest, I'll see how many races I can lose in a row. I won't pick any horse over 6-1 morning line so that you can't accuse me of trying to lose on purpose. But I'm not going to select any morning line favorites either. Looking for some nice 3- or 4-1 shot. That's not too much to ask, is it?

For Friday, I'll turn to Churchill, since who knows if the Big A will even be open? In the 8th - Link to My Heart (5-1) graduated at Hawthorne in her last, earning a field high Beyer of 81, after having shown improvement in her prior two on the grass. The second place finisher came back to win, albeit with a lower Beyer and against several other of the also-rans. It was more the way she won than who she beat, coming from dead last, and effortlessly cruising past the field to win by seven. Trainer Chris Block is a high percentage guy 23% this year) based on the Illinois circuit, but he's been shipping a few horses in for the fall meeting. Over this meet and last year's, he's had nine runners at CD, and although only one of them won, six ran third. Block has prepped this daughter of Starvinsky with similar slow half mile breezes as before that winning race at Hawthorne.

Love Buzz (3-1) is the morning line favorite for Dale Romans off a series of even 4th place finishes in stakes, and picks up Kent D., who rode her in her first two career races. Leparoux hops off and climbs on Creative Design for Tom Proctor. This filly made a nice wide run around the turn in her last, at this level, and led between calls. She was no match however for Pure Clan, an unbeaten filly who went on to win the G3 Pocahontas (on dirt) in her next race. Trainer Ian Wilkes has cooled off after his torrid start, but Seemingly woke up on the Keeneland Poly, and could take to the surface in her lawn debut with Calvin Borel aboard.