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Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Wednesday Morning Notes - Nov 14

- I just ripped up and threw out my monthly NYRA Rewards statement without even bothering to open it. What's the point? I know that it was grim. I don't really even remember the last time I had a winner of any kind. I feel as if I really don't know what I'm doing at all. (Though at least I was right about Spitzer dropping his driver's license plan.)

So, with that in mind, I'll pick the 7th at Aqueduct today, and you can do with it what you will. I know what I would do. Calagaitor makes his 14th start of the year, and he hasn't won since April 25, some 11 starts ago. However, he meets some similar type foes in this state-bred entry level allowance affair. He made an impressive middle move in his last for Howie Tesher, reaching contention from the back of the pack as they turned for home; but he faded to 6th. I think that Norberto Arroyo Jr. may have moved too soon. Note that this gelding seems to prefer saving his best running for the end, and I like the switch to Alan Garcia, who rode him in that fashion at Belmont in September. He's been in pretty decent form of late, and looks like possible value at 6-1 morning line. Stepaside looks like your typical stepping up to allowance off a high-Beyer maiden win favorite. That always comes with a certain amount of risk, and this gelded son of Real Quiet beat a field of professional maidens in his last. North Country also graduated in his last, and he stretches out to two turns as well. Son of Silver Deputy out of a Slew O Gold mare figures to handle the route, but he too comes out of a weak maiden tilt and looks vulnerable as a likely underlay.

- Reader ljk mentioned the other day that he saw a quote about HRTV expanding its viewership; and here's the quote, from Santa Anita's president Ron Charles: "There will very shortly be discussions with DirecTV, and we are optimistic that hopefully HRTV might be available soon on DirecTV." [] He's optimistic that hopefully it might be available on DirecTV. Doesn't sound like time to go out and order those satellite dishes just yet!


steve in nc said...

Since I love your blog, let me try to save your bankroll and talk you off Calagator.

He made his move last race into by far the slowest part of the race, even allowing for the turn (26.09 third quarter, which was sandwiched between a 24.19 2nd quarter and a come-home 25.00).

I think he fades worse today. All his best races have been at a mile or shorter. He's had a lot of races clustered close together for a series of low % trainers, and in each cluster, he's managed to put together a couple of good races, then go off form. This is where he's headed now.

While talking someone off a longer price onto a shorter one is usually not my thing, in this race, check out #6 Logic Way, who might pop his # (best in the field on both Beyer & Ragozin) with the short layoff and decent steady works. O'Brien actually wins every few months with his son-in-law riding (10%, as opposed to 4% with others). I'll save with North Country, who might be on a lonely lead, depending upon what McCauley does on Typhoon Tycoon.

Good luck in the other races, and thanks for keeping us all up to date on horsie politics (I think if we get started on more important politics, we'll both be gargling in Guantanamo).

steve in nc said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
alan said...

Steve - Thanks for trying to save me from myself. Where does a guy in NC (legally) get his bets down?

steve in nc said...

My heart resides in Brooklyn; I'm just visiting down here. That's my story and I'm sticking with it. Listen, if waterboarding might not be torture and we're talking horses instead of doing something about it, we're all living in the state of denial.

Michael said...

Alan, the decent mid-range package on Dish Network includes both TVG and HRTV, and it's not priced too high. I've been more or less happy with the service (although, how hard is it to give better customer service than the local cable company, really?).

Anonymous said...

Spitzer,The new flip flopper,a man of coviction.
I saw the Gov.wearing a neck brace today.
I guess Hillary slapped him around pretty good

alan said...

Steve in nc - Nicely put.

Michael - As I've bitched about many times, I dumped Dish for Direct in order to get the NHL on Versus, and then Dish picked it up like two days later. But DirecTV's technology is so superior to that of Dish (at least then), that I haven't switched back. Besides, the Head Chef gets all of her required programming. So here's hoping that maybe, HRTV will possibly turn up on DirecTV soon.

Anon - When Spitzer takes a firm stance and won't give in, then he's called a steamroller. Now, he listens to the opposition and drops his plan, and you call him a flip-flopper. What the hell do you want from the guy??

Meanwhile, the Head Chef got hired to work on a 900 person dinner for Spitzer on Dec 9. I guess it's a fundraiser, in which case I trust he will not be utilizing a state helicopter to get to it.

Sarah said...

Yes, Alan, opening the monthly statement from NYRA Rewards can be a grim process. I've also had a tough fall season (somewhat compensated recently by a flukey win or two on Stallion Stakes weekend). Today, however, I did, get something else from NYRA that gave me pause and then heard a rumor that is truely frightening.

As a bet-small type, I've had relatively little traffic with IRS forms. But a few years ago lightening struck (twice) with pick 6 scores at Saratoga. At the time, I was wagering with BRISBET, and they happily pre-deducted the Federal tax liability (though it was still a shock to owe to NY when tax time came). Today (as a result of a lucky couple of days in the third week of August) I received two IRS statements from NYRA Rewards. . . but with no federal withholding included. Granted, I should have noticed at the time, but the flush of victory is confusing. I guess this is just a general caveat for those who have moved from other internet betting platforms when they no longer carried NY tracks.

A second issue related to NYRA rewards is much more troubling. I heard by word-of-mouth that something came up in NYRA's bankruptcy proceedings about identity fraud connected with those who had supplied NYRA with SS and credit card numbers for wagering purposes. Can this be true??? Do you know anything about this??? I find this very disturbing, but until I discover otherwise, will treat it as only a rumor. Hope to be enlightened.

alan said...

Sarah - I wish I could give you more advice on the IRS statements, but pitifully and embarrassingly, I have no experience to offer! But I most certainly have not heard anything about identity theft associated with the NYRA accounts! I'll look into it, but hopefully will have nothing further to enlighten you about!

Anonymous said...

In Alan's Race Of The Day (a good feature to continue through the bleary winter months) I am tossing the recent maiden winners and going with the aforementioned Logic Way, Caligator, and Typhoon Tycoon.

Box and pray.

affirmedny said...

sarah, all tracks only withhold if winnings are over $5000 I believe. Maybe your Brisbet score was and your NYRA wasn't?

Sarah said...

Thank you affirmedny. Case solved.