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Saturday, January 19, 2008

Saturday Morning Notes - Jan 19

- In the 6th at Gulfstream, Vacation stretches out to two turns for Shug after four well-bet in the money tries at shorter. Under other circumstances, I might surmise he's one of those money burners, and perhaps he is. But his Phipps pedigree surely suggests he should love this nine furlong distance. This three-year old son of Dynaformer has some fascinating and unusual inbreeding - 3x4 to distance influence His Majesty and 5x5 to Hasty Road, the winner of the 1954 Preakness. Certainly we don't generally see those patterns. He's a half to Boca Grande, and his stakes winning dam Country Hideaway is a half to the Distaff winner Pleasant Home and to the dam of Pine Island; all familiar Phipps names.

One more note here - the outside horse is named Subprime Lending - talk about your negative hunch bet! This horse could lose by 14.2%!

No stakes races at Gulfstream today, what's up with that? Santa Anita has the G2 San Marcos at a mile and a quarter, and Frankel's Champs Elysees is the 6-5 morning line favorite off his second to Sunriver in the G1 Hollywood Turf Cup. He was the surprise 8-5 favorite in the race, as there was that ultimately silly talk that Sunriver wouldn't handle the softer going that day. Y'know, I always get into trouble when I try to beat Frankel, especially when he has the favorite such as in this case. So maybe I should just shut up.

But unfortunately, I can't help but notice that Champs Elysees has burned a bit of money, with only two wins to go with five seconds and three thirds in his 12 career starts. Certainly nothing wrong with his Turf Cup effort, in which he had to wait for room while saving all the ground around the turn. Looks tough, but he's going to be a short price while cutting back to a mile and a quarter.

Medici Code rallied quite well for second, to repeat winner Daytona, in the G1 Hollywood Derby for three year olds two races back, getting the final quarter in 22.4. His third in the subsequent San Gabriel was good enough, but he's shown a fine closing kick, and I think he'll much appreciate the stretch out back to the Hollywood Derby distance of a mile and a quarter. Obrigado looks to me like a horse which has never been the same since he went to Dubai last March. He's the third choice at 4-1, and thus I think he's well worth leaving out of exotics entirely, perhaps in favor of the Toddster's Rocket Legs (12-1), who has really improved since graduating on the long grass of Kentucky Downs, and has been running and training very well since on the Hollywood Cushion Track.

2 Comments:

Glimmerglass said...

Alan, amazingly like a dog with a bone the connections of Golden Yak just won't let the non-foul call of the 1-2 finishers of the $1M Delta Jackpot go. See the article in the DRf with the filed lawsuit.

http://drf.com/news/article/91701.html

Are folks that already frantic about getting into the KY Derby - is it really just the money?

case said...

Speaking of pedigree, the 7th at Philly was a 3 yo f 5.5 furlong MSW won by a daughter of Storm Cat and BC Juv Filly winner Caressing. She's named My Goodness and she closed very nicely.