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Saturday, January 26, 2008

Simpler Times

- Looking at Saturday's third at the Big A, I was transported back in time, to an era in which handicapping seemed simpler, before I was "burdened" with speed figures, Formulator, pedigree charts, replays, and the like. I would have handicapped this race in about five minutes, and it would have gone something like this:

Morning line favorite Dump It and Run (2-1) has run both of his lifetime races on sloppy tracks. So with a fast track expected today, I'd look elsewhere. That's not to say he's a throwout per se; but he would be on principle (never bet a favorite being asked to do something it hasn't done before) as the public choice for sure. Second choice Drift King (5-2) graduated on a muddy, sealed track after two losing tries on fast ground. Ditto. Glowing Image (7-2) was twice unsuccessful on fast and good tracks after graduating in the slop, but won his last in the slop. And likewise, the only career win by Run With Me (9-2) was on a sloppy track (though his fast track second at Calder gives him an advantage over the aforementioned trio).

So, I'd be giving a long look to the two remaining entrants, even though they're the longshots in the morning line. Laysh Laysh Laysh (8-1) has improved adding blinks off the claim for David Jacobson, and graduated (over a fast track) in his last. And Api Mohkat (10-1) graduated two back for a 75K tag also after adding blinkers, as well as Alan Garcia, and then faltered in the slop; fast track and Garcia gets back on board today.

And I'd basically be done. Eliminating well-bet horses being supported off efforts on track conditions different from the day at hand was one of those basic no-brainers which superseded all other factors, and which served me well for many years. Adding a modern touch, I'll also note that two horses came back from Api Mokhat's race to win (and that Api Mokhat achieved a field high Beyer of 84 in the race); and that Laysh Laysh Laysh (who is moving up from the maiden ranks, but figures to represent good value) defeated Magical Forest, who came back to miss by a nose in his next start, as well as Grapple, a very well-meant first-timer from the Schosberg barn.

3 Comments:

Anonymous said...

Good enough for me, KISS.

5 minutes to post, hope I am not being a Mush, but the EX is paying about 50 bucks each way, box.

Handride said...

4-1, KISS for sure

Anonymous said...

Split by the 1 horse, bet AM to win, Loser again.