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Sunday, May 24, 2009

More Chances

The 4th at Belmont on Monday, the state-bred Dedicated Rullah stakes, is a race in which the two morning line favorites look to me like horses to stand against at underlaid odds. Mor Chances (9-5) has been a brilliant claim indeed for Rick Dutrow (6-6-3 in 23 starts at Belmont thus far), with gaudy Beyers and gross earnings of nearly $180,000 off the 50K claim. Switches to the grass here though, where his two wins from six grass tries have come in routes. The Dutrow magic could move him up in these conditions for sure; bit scary to leave out, but I think he's worth a play against at his morning line. Rollers (5-2) has never run on grass, and hasn't been so hot on dirt either ever since a three-race winning streak last summer, losing five in a row, four of those as the favorite. Decent effort on Keeneland Poly for Tagg (31-8-7-4, 35%), good first-turf sire stats for Stormy Atlantic (14%); but a lot to ask at poor value of a horse who has never been over 4-1 in his 12 lifetime starts.

Redefined (5-1) switches to a preferred distance/surface combination - four wins and five seconds in nine six furlong grass tries - in his second off a layoff for Anthony Dutrow (1 for 17 to start the meet, 8 of those under 3-1;30% in that category). Return was a rare out-of-the-money finish for a horse usually sharp off the layoff. But instead of employing his usual stalking style, he found himself hooked on the inside with the speedy Cooper County. Jockey change here with Lezcano aboard (38% 2008-9 for this barn); return to rating tactics means possible good trip, perhaps behind the two faorites, for solid runner at decent odds. Meriweather Jessica (6-1) has won her last two off layoffs; but those were much shorter breaks, and she's in tough against the boys here. Still, worth a look at her morning line for trainer Linda Rice, highly-percentaged in all of the relavent categories.


Anonymous said...

Great Call! Thanks! I always look forward to your Belmont insights.

race said...

Alan---Nice handicapping today at Belmont's 4th race----race