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Thursday, May 28, 2009

Pullover

Not only did Extra Zip win the first, but it looks like Carlos Martin may have pulled one over, getting away with exposing him to the 30K optional tag that allowed him to run for allowance conditions that he'd already overcome. He took a little late money on the nose in the win pool, and won easily under a supremely confident Ramon Dominguez getting the final eighth in 11.86 seconds.

- I guess that if you're going to have a three horse race, it might as well be the first leg of a pick four. Sure wasn't much interest in the win pool, with a mere $106,780 wagered, most of that on the 2-5 favorite Moose Man, who completed a Ramon early double.

- I noted earlier that Contessa was slumping - three for his first 76 starters at the Belmont meeting - so of course he won twice, including Deb's Roof the dead-heat co-winner of the race who, according to the chart, finished full of run to get up in the final stride. Just a minor point here to the chartcaller: "get up" strongly implies, if not definitively states, that the horse "got up" to win the race outright. At least to me. I know you didn't ask, but Got up for a share is how I would have phrased it!

We all know that Contessa is not a high percentage guy; he overpowers his rivals in the trainer standings on sheer volume. But the fact is that he's a solid 12% guy at least (though he's slowly but steadily declined over the last five years from 15% to 12% over the last year). And though he thrives at the Big A, he's still 11% at Belmont over the last two years even including his recent woes. I'd suspect that he'll be much closer to that number than his present Mendoza Line figures by the time the meet ends.

5 Comments:

Anonymous said...

Well, received my Belmont tickets today, hoorah!!

Now I just have to get to the PO tomorrow and send 28 of them to my freinds and family so they all have in time for the big race.

Why in the world does it take until 9 days before race day for NYRA to get these tickets in my hands? It took them about five minutes to cash my check THREE months ago, yet I have to sweat out the ticket arrival every year.

But somehow they managed to get me my SPA tickets three weeks before the Belmont tickets?

Can someone 'splain?

rgustafson said...

Nice call on that horse Alan. I was playing online and the horse looked absolutely full of himself so I doubled up my bet. Thanks for pointing out the things you did today.

Anonymous said...

Your knocking Contessa Alan. That is to funny. Your trainer should only win as many races as Contessa has in the next 10 years of training. Go ahead now how about knocking Nick Zito as you have in the past. What a moron you are.

alan said...

Hmmmm, let's see. I wrote that Contessa is a solid 12% guy at least, and that I think his win percentage will be much closer to that than his present 4% by the end of Belmont. How exactly is that knocking him? Why am I even wasting time responding to a moron like you is an even better question.

race said...

Alan--I complement you on responding to Anonymous while he was writing unnecessay cuts to you, while in fact you were complementing Contessa, in fact watching Contessa's Horses now more closely could be a winning move, for he will have to use a high winning clip to get his average up, so he should be at the 20% stage for the coming weeks of the meet---race