Biased Against the Bias

- Thanks to Andy Serling for stopping by. I really wasn't trying to pick an argument, but I guess it didn't help that I dissed his partner Jason Blewitt as "whoever the other guy was." On occasion, there are posts in which I write something which I'd soon like to take back, and I was honestly thinking that about that particular line on my way to the Jets game Sunday. It was an attempt at being glib and funny that came out reading as flip and demeaning as Andy noted, and I do sincerely apologize to both Jason and him for that.

I also freely admit that, in attempting to illustrate the fact that I heard a lot of buzz about a bias on Saturday, I took their comments regarding a bias which I heard prior to the 5th race completely out of any context of their discussions of the subject to date. The fact is that, as a DirectTV customer who therefore does not get the NYRA feed at home, and as a relatively infrequent track visitor of late, I haven't heard much of their analyses at all. And I must admit that, even when I am at the track, I don't necessarily go out of my way to listen. Now, oh man, I don't want these guys to take that the wrong way and make matters worse, so now, in an attempt to avoid further trouble, I'll explain why that's actually more of a compliment than yet another dis:

If I'm at the track handicapping on the fly, or at Siro's on a Saratoga morning, I'm happy and eager to listen to and consider other informed opinions in forming my own. But if I've already done my homework and reached a conclusion, as is the case more often than not when I'm at the Big A, then my personal preference is to avoid any outside influences with 12 minutes to post, especially from guys like Serling and Blewitt who I consider to be more knowledgeable than myself. Chances are that doing so will result in me coming to believe that my logic is somehow flawed, leading to second guessing myself. However, in handicapping horse races, being the perfectly imperfect art that it is, reasoning that may be somehow "wrong" can very often lead to a result which is very much right. I often believe that knowing too much has become the biggest weakness in my game.

I've written before about what I see as the "random" factor in my bets, affected as they are far too much by outside factors - my mood, a hangover from my last bet(s), whether I'm home or on track, standing or sitting, cold or warm, and, worst of all in my case, being unduly influenced by hearing other opinions, whether informed or not. I'm a guy who on many occasions has gotten off the betting line because I heard someone in front of me bet the horse I like. And though I actually don't ever recall that particular strategy backfiring on me, I do try to stick to, and live or die by, my own handicapping. Therefore, with the utmost of due respect, I often don't focus in on the in-house analysts, no matter who they are. At Belmont and Aqueduct, this is accomplished simply by standing in the 95% of the plants where you can't here the PA system anyway.

I would actually find it extremely helpful and educational if I could listen to these guys' pre-race comments after the race....and it's well worth the effort to check out the Trips and Traps segments on NYRA's You Tube page (which is actually Andy Serling and some other guy Eric Donovan).

Having gotten that out of the way (and hoping that I haven't in fact made matters worse), I'm happy to take up the argument of the supposed speed/inside track bias on Saturday. Looking at the first four races which led some to that conclusion: In the first race, Yo Karakorum set the pace towards the inside without facing any real competition according to the chart. This horse has in fact now led every step of the way in his three races save for a bare nose at the finish of his second one, so I wouldn't necessarily credit any bias for his victory. In the second, Intoxicatingbeauty swept to the lead four wide around the turn.

Andy mentioned the third, in which Pitched Perfectly survived a quick early pace and "still managed to draw off late for the victory." However, what one person may see as a horse drawing off, I view as one who slowed to a quarter of 25 and then again to a harness horse time of almost 27 seconds after that first half. So to me, this was a classic case of a horse bottoming out a weak inner track field being mistaken for a bias. In the 4th, She's Prime wired a field in which not a single contestant had ever run two turns on the dirt. I wouldn't put any credence whatsoever in a race like that.

Yes, as Andy pointed out, there were some horses who held for second better than you might expect after dueling for the lead - in particular, Charming Officer in the second, and Take The Bluff, who fought inside of the sharp Be Bullish in the 6th. But personally, I think there could be a range of reasons other than a bias to explain those - Take the Bluff showed an affinity for the IT last year; Charming Officer was making her IT debut and did, after all, finish eight lengths back. Given the fact, and I do believe it to be so, that racing in general is predisposed towards speed, a true and significant bias, in my view, is when horses such as these actually and consistently defy all logic and hang on to win. The results on Saturday, again in my opinion, merely served to prove that it's pace, and not bias, which explains the results the vast majority of the time. And I think if you also consider Sunday's results to form a larger sample of the nature of the track, which had recovered to fast for the two days after a major rain event late last week, then my opinion would be that the surface was largely fair. If we follow up with the horses who ran, then maybe we can see down the road if I'm right or wrong.

Miracles (Sometimes) Happen

- Here's one that did:



Meanwhile, at around the same time at Aqueduct, Rap Tale needed a miracle with a furlong to go to get home in the Ladies Handicap, but Bills' coach Dick Jauron was otherwise occupied. Maybe if she had Shaun Ellis to elbow the competition aside like he did to Langston Walker on his way to the end zone. However, exhausted from her effort in leading to that point and disposing of favored Sweet Goodbye along the way, Rap Tale was done. And no, she just couldn't hold on to that treasured show spot, getting nailed by Julie B as she staggered across the line (her final quarter in 29 seconds). The winner got home in 27.52, and if you want to know why they won't be running this mile and a quarter stakes race anymore, just take a look at that final quarter, both on paper and on tape. Final time of 2:07.30 aint pretty, though I'm sure it was spectacular to the connections of winning Borrowing Base. Just as the 31-27 final score is to Jets fans.

Sunday Morning Notes - Dec 14

- I got to the Big A after the second on Saturday, and already I heard some murmuring about the track favoring speed. By the end of the 4th, after two pure wire jobs, it had grown into a frenzy. Andy Serling and whoever the other guy was were talking about it, and that stuff can become a fait accompli pretty quickly on a cold day with an intimate crowd of 3,125 huddled inside like old friends in their familiar and very much weathered surroundings.

However, I was having none of this, ever the skeptic on the matter of track bias that I am. You just can't, except in the most extreme circumstances, make conclusions about a bias based on such a small sample - two races each at six furlongs and two turns to that point, in my opinion. There was nothing I saw in either the third or 4th race to indicate anything other than the fact that the winners, both favorites, were the best horses in a couple of very weak races, particularly the 4th.

Sure enough, the rest of the winners came from off the pace. You might read some analysis that says that the track favored speed early and closers late; I'd say don't believe the hype. Each of those races had its own circumstance - a contested pace, lack of quality speed horse, a nice-looking improving horse in Researcher - just as the earlier ones did.

So, big deal, I was right about that - didn't help me make any money. In fact, my best shot of the day blew up when 65-1 Golden Caesar came from out of the clouds to win the 7th. I had the exacta with second and third place finishers 5-1 Raffie's Dear over 6-1 Borrowing Limit darn near cold. Always nice to see those West Point horses like Drowning Bear run on Saturdays when they get bet off the board; 6-5 on that one, oh my.

Raffie's Dear is another live one from the Asmussen barn (though Sir Whimsey disappointed in the Queens County). Chief Export got the job done for Lake in the 5th, and didn't get claimed either; but the trainer claimed Bubba Gum back for 14 after losing him for 10K last time. Run With The Lark ($40.60) was the second winner in two days for trainer Richard Schosberg.

If it sounds like I'm in a rush, it's because I gotta get ready to go to the Jets game. But DiscreetCat has a pick for the Big A. Best of luck and have a great day.

Aqueduct - Race 7

#7 Access Fee (3/1 ml)

Just happened to catch the filly's Laurel debut by accident way back in February, and was EXTREMELY impressed with her. I began following her after that, with the hope that she would ship to New York for a stakes, and we could get a price on her. Unfortunately that didn't happen, as she resurfaced in an allowance @ Laurel where she scored another impressive win at miserly odds. Disappeared for a bit after that before turning up in a turf sprint @ Philly where she lost @ 4/5, then disappeared again, presumably injured. By the time she returned @ Laurel last month, i had put her on the back burner because i thought perhaps she was damaged goods, and i assumed (quite wrongly) that she would be odds-on again. To my dismay, she went off @ 3/1 and blitzed the field, looking very much like her former self. This filly is just a bundle of talent when right, and seeing that they've NOW chosen to send her to New York for a stakes, it's safe to assume she's in fine fettle. Also note that Ramon Dominguez (who has some ties to Laurel) is climbing aboard, and he's previously ridden a winner for this trainer. Like this one a lot.

Saturday Morning Notes - Dec 13

- Three winners for Contessa on Friday, giving him an inner track leading six. Of course, having started 54 horses thus far, he's had nearly three times as many runners as runner-up Bruce Levine. On the other hand, there's the Steve Asmussen barn, which, with yet another winner on Friday, has five winners in eight starters. Also well worth noting that two more winners, including 16-1 Half Metal Jacket in the 5th, came off main track races at the Meadowlands, so that pattern continues.

In the 3rd race today, here's Futuristic (5-2) for trainer Michael Maker and owner Ken Ramsey, shipping in from Churchill. The connections have run second and third with their prior two such runners over the IT this meeting. This two-year old son of Millennium Wind, who stands in Louisiana for $2,000 in 2009, stepped up to maiden specials and ran second in his last to Indygo Mountain, a nice looking $600,000 AP Indy colt. He stretches out to two turns here. Already proven at the route is Pitched Perfectly (2-1), for Contessa; son of Pleasantly Perfect just missed to Shadwell's Aswaaq here ten days ago.

In the 5th, well, here we go again - Scott Lake drops Chief Export (7-2) off the claim, from the 20K he took him off Contessa in November, to the 14K in this wild and woolly affair today. As we discovered in great detail last weekend, this horse is likely live despite the suspicious nature of the drop. He's easily the class of the field, having won for 45K at Penn National over the summer, and would seem to have a tactical edge in a race laden with speed, having shown the ability to win from off the pace. However, he seems a bit slower than some rivals based on his recent Beyers, so here's others to consider:

End of an Era (5-1) was claimed for 20K by David Jacobson last March after three fine efforts on the inner track. He didn't return until November, and romped by six second off the layoff in a restricted 10K claimer. It can't be great news that he drifted out in the stretch despite emphatic right handed encouragement. But I love the move up in class here to open 14's; and there's certainly something wrong somewhere with most every horse at this level. And he's also won from off the pace. Bubba Gum (9-2) also found his level, dropping for Lake and winning his last for 10K; moves back up in class after being taken by trainer Bruce Brown, 23% first off the claim. Methodtomymadness (20-1) ships in from the Meadowlands for Patricia Farro, who claimed this horse back for 10K a race after losing him for 5K. Mixed it up against Jersey-bred allowance company last; possible speed of the speed here?

And if you think today's Queens County Handicap is weak, check out Sunday's Ladies Handicap. NYRA was so desperate to fill this one that they actively recruited Rap Tale. And guess what, she's going. It's another installment in the continuing quest to get this filly some black type, and what an opportunity here. We also want to see her stretch out, so here's hoping she can pick up some pieces late and sneak into the third spot so we can run her in spots where she better belongs.

- Cold day today, but supposed to warm up to the low to mid 40's for the Jets game tomorrow; piece of cake for a veteran like myself. Some in the Jets blogosphere are excited about the anticipated activation of wide receiver David Clowney, a 5th round pick from Virginia Tech for the Packers last year. Clowney was the Jets' leading receiver in preseason, but has been out with a collarbone injury all season. The Jets' passing game has resembled that of Chad Pennington with its short range lately, and it's hoped that Clowney, one of the fastest players on the team, can get some separation and help Brett Favre stretch out the field.

Aqueduct Notes (sealed)

- Man, it is pouring and they're expecting two inches of rain overnight! So I certainly wouldn't be shocked if there's a cancellation, even though it's supposed to clear by post time.

Sloppy and sealed on Thursday of course. Horses who had last run at the Meadowlands ran 1-2-3 (3-1, 12-1, and 14-1 respectively) in the third. And in the fifth, two horses who had last raced at the Big M ran 1-2 (at identical odds of 3.45 to 1; I guess the bettors couldn't make up their mind). And those were the only five horses to that point on the card who had run there, so there's some domination for you. On Wednesday, two of the Contessa horses I mentioned, Tide Runner and West Coast Flyer, had last started there too. I

In my ongoing quest to present statistics in context, I'll also point out that three Meadowlands shippers ran poorly at low odds on Wednesday. But other such winners on the inner track include Bombilla, ($5.10), Big Emi ($12.00), and Bubba Gum ($5.20); and good seconds by Ballado Alert (7-1), Brockly Rob (4-1), and Judiths Wild Rush (7-1). It's not that big a sample, so I think it's fair to say that they're worth watching coming over from the Big M to the Big A.

Shannon H ($8.90) was the Meadowlands horse who won the abovementioned 5th, and she is trained by Scott Volk. Recall that I mentioned that trainer in this post, and I also mentioned the barn's Teddy Ballgame, who subsequently ran a game second on the grass. Volk has now been first or second in each of his last six races. No entries from the barn tomorrow or Saturday. Volk claimed this three-year old daughter of Hay Halo (Halo) for $7500 last out for owner James Riccio, who collected the winner's share of $11,400, and the $10,000 claiming tag for the filly, from trainer Randi Persaud; quick turnaournd for a decent little score there.

Steve Asmussen took the fifth.....perhaps I should rephrase.....La Concerto ($4) won the fifth for Asmussen. I'm sure the trainer himself is nowhere near Aqueduct, but he's having a helluva meet - four for seven on the inner track, and nine for 28 (32%).

Accredit ($5.50) won the Parlay Me Stakes for McLaughlin and Darley Stable. Look for this one in the early season handicap division at the Big A in 2009; he finished in the money in three stakes on the IT early this year. Four of his five wins have now come in the slop; the other on Polytrack. Accredit is by E Dubai, whose stud fee will hold steady at $15,000 next year. He's sixth on the third crop list, and has six stakes winners this year, including the G2 winner Buy the Barrell.

- I laughed out loud when I saw that the Jets were eight point favorites against the Bills on Sunday. It doesn't matter that Trent Edwards is out; Nick Zito could throw for 300 yards against the Jets. I'm telling you, the Jets have a history in these late season home games against the Bills - and it ain't a pretty one. I see the game coming down to a field goal. I don't bet on football so I'm not an expert, but I mean, there's got to be better propositions on the board than laying the points on this one!

Notes - Dec 11

- Two winners and a very close second for Contessa on Wednesday after a 1 for 29 start on the inner track (in addition to another second, and a third). All of those three had last raced in New Jersey, and two, 7th race winner West Coast Flyer and 3rd race runner-up Tide Runner, were moving up in class fresh off the claim, for Winning Move.

The stable of trainer Mike Hushion is in sharp form; he ran 1-2 in Wednesday's 6th race, and took today's opener with class dropper City Spirit; that's four winners from 12 starters on the inner track.

- Here's an interesting comment on the last post. The reader tells of speculation that some horsemen themselves, already used to the squalid backstretch conditions at Philly Park, are in cahoots with Greenwood in slowing the progress of barn renovations with an eye towards dissuading outsiders at crashing the big purse party there. Certainly some perverted logic there given the fact that the locals are already struggling to find spots for their horses.

- Developer Louis Cappelli says that he's still "on schedule" with the heart of his grand plan for the Concord. Though some aspects of the complex will be moved to a second phase, the new Monticello harness track, along with the racino, hotel, and retail shops are on target for summer 2010. Cappelli also scored an additional $200 million in bond proceeds.....if of course, given market conditions, the Sullivan County Industrial Development Agency can get the issue done.

"The only thing we are keeping our eyes on is the bond market because we are going to sell bonds for the project," Cappelli said.
.....
Cappelli said the faltering economy has made it harder to lock down financing. He has been paying for the project out-of-pocket and with short-term bridge loans.

"I get sick every time I watch the financial news, but I am determined to move ahead and we are, quickly." [Times Herald-Record]

Unlike a certain other racino project we know of that's dependent on a bond issue.

Hunch Bets (And a Discreet Pick) For Dec 11

I Belong Gone 4th at Aqueduct
Naughty Behavior 5th at Fair Grounds
Nailed 3rd at Calder
Hard Climb 2nd at Charles Town
Ex Angel 5th at Golden Gate
Choose The Money 1st at Delta Downs
Uno Mas 6th at Fair Grounds
Hopes Are High 2nd at Charles Town
Amazing Trick 3rd at Charles Town
Look Of Success 10th at Delta Downs

- DiscreetCat shifts gears and heads to New Orleans today. [UPDATE: Racing at Fair Grounds has now been canceled due to snow.]

Fair Grounds - Race 6

#8 Indygo Mountain (5/2 ml)

Calhoun trainee ran a good race for second in his Keeneland debut behind next-out winner Kopitar, but really stepped it up in start #2 when switched to the dirt and stretched out to a mile @ Churchill Downs, moving powerfully late to run away from a good field that included Flying Warrior, a talented Mott runner that i gave out here. Looks set for another good stalking trip, and figures to improve even further on the stretchout to two turns. Calhoun has excelled at the Fair Grounds meet, is very strong in routes (and with young horses), and hits at @ 29% with rider Theriot. No reason not to expect another big effort here.

Overflow at Philly

- Take a look at the entries for Philadelphia Park on Saturday. There's 123 prospective runners stuffed into the nine race card; 18 each in the first, second, and 4th. What was that about larger purses bringing smaller fields? Not at Philly Park these days. Kasey K's Philly trainer Keith LeBarron reports that the competition to just get into races is incredibly intense these days, especially with the track running live races only four days a week. Also lively is the action at the claim box; LeBarron laments that he's lost three horses in that manner this past week.

One of those was Mr. W.B., a disappointing 4th for Kasey K in Tuesday's 4th race. So ends his second stint with the barn; claimed for the same $7500 that we claimed him back for two races back. So we're in the market for a replacement.

- Handride, on his way back from the Power of Blogs panel in Arizona, touts some new features on the TBA homepage. However, don't expect to see yours truly under the TBA Tweets tab. Twitter has been in the news a lot of late; and that should be no surprise. It fits in snugly with our society's current obsession with portability and immediacy. Unfortunately, in addition to looking like little more than public instant messaging to me, it does so at the expense of substance. Call me old-fashioned, but I can wait a few hours, or even [gasp] until the next morning, for my news and commentary, and I prefer it to be well-considered and macro rather than instant and micro. So, tweet tweet yerself.

No MOU, No Kennedy

- Paul Post reports from the Arizona symposium, where NYRA president Charles Hayward appeared on a panel, that a Memorandum of Understanding between and amongst the relevant parties involved in the Aqueduct racino has still not been signed.

“They’re just working on finalizing language and details,” Delaware North spokesman Glenn White said. “We’re still looking at early 2009 to start construction; early spring at the latest.”

Delaware North met with state and NYRA officials at Aqueduct last week to discuss the project.
.....
White said that Delaware North is still finalizing its development, construction, and budget timetables. Partnering agreements are also being worked out and the company is beginning to secure construction contractors, he said. [Thoroughbred Times]

Given the history of this endeavor along with current market conditions, I'll consider that part about 'early spring at the latest' as a definitive statement that we won't see any construction until racing moves to Belmont. But hey, why should I be suspicious, just because the economy has fallen apart, and development deals are being canceled left and right? And exactly when is the state going to raise that $250 million in construction costs in a morbid municipal market?

- I'm pretty confident that Governor Paterson doesn't need to read this post from Daily Politics on How Not to Pick a Senator. Illinois ex-governor to be Rod Blagojevich makes ex-governor Eliot Spitzer look like a genius in comparison, and shows us what a real criminal governor looks and sounds like. There's a slight similarity in the circumstances in that in both cases, federal prosecutors stumbled upon the transgressions while looking for something else. But, other than the fact that they're both foul-mouthed Democrats, the similarity ends there.

Paterson has to be privately seething over the pressure being applied by friends, relatives, and supporters of Caroline Kennedy in the matter of Hillary Clinton's replacement. It has to be an unanticipated development in what already has to be an unwanted distraction for the governor in light of the budget crisis, and the problems the Democrats are having solidifying their numerical majority in the State Senate. The idea has apparently already caught on with the public, at least according to a Marist College poll which indicates that 25% of NY registered voters favor Ms. Kennedy's selection. That's tied with the support shown in the poll for Attorney General Andrew Cuomo.

Personally, I don't think either of them will end up being the one - Cuomo's chances are slim, and Ms. Kennedy's absolutely none in my view. No way in the world that Paterson gives in and selects a woman from downstate with no legislative nor campaign experience whatsoever. And I don't think that Cuomo wants the job. Paterson told the NY Daily News: "He indicated to me that he has some things he's working on....He's not really sure if he could be available." After four years as the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in Clinton Administration II, and in his current stint as the most powerful state attorney general in the country, Cuomo, who will certainly someday be the Governor of New York, is used to running the show, and I just don't see him as harboring ambitions to be a junior senator from New York.

Snap Out of It

- A couple of items from a couple of conferences going on this week. At first glance, I got depressed when I saw the headline of Matt Hegarty's story Study: Racing boosts track slots, regarding a panel at the Symposium on Racing at the University of Arizona. Not only, would it seem, are slots not helping business at the parimutuel windows, but it's the other way around, at least according to this report. And it is sobering for sure to think that there are any dollars being diverted from the handle and going to slot machines instead. I think that's the kind of money that you and I would like to see remain in the pools.

However, as Hegarty points out:

The study could be used by racetracks and horsemen's groups as a lobbying tool for protecting slot-machine subsidies for the racing industry. Those subsidies could easily be targeted for a reduction by many states during the current economic downturn, which is putting pressure on states to raise revenues from rapidly contracting budgets. [Daily Racing Form]

It's been my fear all along that those subsidies would eventually be targeted, not for a reduction, but for elimination altogether, along with the requirement that slots be attached to a racetrack in the first place. But if this study, based solely on a study at Prairie Meadows (which, it would seem to me, is a potentially fatal flaw) is corroborated in other states, then racing would be seen as a boon rather than a burden. Perhaps the tracks and horsemen could even gain some leverage with the states in negotiating its share of the profits.

At the convention of the American Association of Equine Practitioners in San Diego, Craig Dado, the VP of marketing at Del Mar, moderated a panel regarding a study showing that 42 percent of core fans "say performance-enhancing drugs are a serious problem."

"We can't talk our way out of the problem," Dado said. "We have zero credibility right now."

Dado said racing could go the way of Tylenol, which responded prudently to a product tampering case years ago, or boxing, which Dado said "ignored warning signs over integrity."

Dado said that "unless there is meaningful, swift, decisive, and transparent action," then "a significant portion of fans will abandon the sport." [DRF]

Alex Waldrop was supposed to moderate this panel, but was absent due to a death in the family. A couple of comments on things Dado said:

For one thing, this idea that a "significant" number of fans are massing by the exit doors because of drugs is, in my opinion, pure poppycock. There has been cheating in the sport for as long as it exists; why now would devoted (and degenerate) horseplayers suddenly pull the plug? It didn't take long for me to find an article in the NY Times archive to support that point. The report is from May of 1903.

With the race horse Dr. Riddle dead from an excessive dose of "dope," as the drugs used
to stimulate horses to their extreme of speed are designated technically, and the
stable connections of the horse in question under suspension pending final action by
the stewards of The Jockey Club, the most flagrant scandal in the use
of drugs
that has been brought to lights since racing officials prohibited the employment of "dope"
was brought into notice at the Morris Park racecourse yesterday. Dr. Riddle raced in the name of J. Gardner and was a starter in the second event of yesterday's programme, a selling race at seven furlongs over the Withers Mile, in which fourteen horses ran. The horse was ridden by the light-weight jockey Sailing, and was backed for a "killing" by the stable connection, but attracted attention in the paddock by his peculiar actions, as he required two men to handle him when he was saddled and seemed then to be almost uncontrollable.

The horse died a few hours later, and trainer William Howell took the rap.

The charge of "doping" was regarded as practically proved against Howell before the death of Dr. Riddle. Under the recent rule adopted by The Jockey Club, the penalty is expulsion from the turf. It is intimated, also, that the Sociey for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals also will be called to act in the matter.

If "expulsion from the turf" didn't do the trick, 30 day "suspensions" in which an assistant takes over sure won't!

As always, I'm not saying that drugs are not a problem that needs to be addressed. But I think that Dado's rather extreme comments are symptomatic of the paralyzing funk that the industry has been thrown into by Eight Belles' death and, to some extent, the flap over steroids soon after. I don't sense any thrust toward marketing, just this constant hand-wringing, stemming in part by what I see as an irrational fear of punitive actions by a Congress with far, far more important items on the agenda. It's been a frenzy of self-contrition, studies, and committees being fueled I believe by a racing press and blogosphere that's turned as bleak in mood as a December home crowd at a Jets game.

I mean, are you telling me that someone is actually spending valuable time on a study showing that 42% think that drugs are a serious problem?? Yeah, so, duh? Been to a racetrack lately and listened to those around you? C'mon man, these are gamblers, hello! For one thing, at least 42% of those people absolutely love the cheating - it gives them something to bitch about! They'd probably quit the sport if they couldn't complain about the juice - then they'd have to blame themselves for being losers! And what percentage of football gamblers do you think would say that performance-enhancing drugs are a problem in their sport? Or baseball fans? Or ask some basketball bettors and fans if they think the refs are on the up-and-up. But I don't see those league executives holding their heads in their hands; they address the problem - adequately or not as the case may be - while continuing to market their sports.

And secondly with respect to Dado's remarks, seven people were randomly murdered in the 1982 Tylenol poisonings to which he refers. That's hardly an appropriate comparison, and many people would classify Johnson and Johnson's response more as PR than prudence.

Hmmm, perhaps racing should take a look at that after all..

Big A Sunday

- One of my pet peeves is when statistics are presented without any context, and I think I was guilty of just that in the last post. There, I noted that Scott Lake wins at 31% with horses dropping at least 50% in claiming price (he's 23% over all during that period). However, I think that's like when we see a hitter's lofty batting average with the bases loaded without noting that all good hitters have a distinct advantage when the pitcher's options are thusly limited. It also seems logical that horses dropping in class should do well overall.

So I checked the stats of some other trainers over the last five years. Bruce Levine is 25 for 78 (32%, vs 25% overall). Richard Dutrow is 33 for 83 (40%) (25% overall). His brother Anthony is 23 for 71 (32%) (26% overall). Contessa is at 22%, but he's a lower percentage guy (15% overall) than the others mentioned.

So it would seem as if the stat on Lake doesn't really mean that much. Perhaps of more interest would be to consider those class droppers who had finished in the money in its previous start. What I'm really after, after all, is an idea of how the trainers do when the drop seems "suspicious," such as when the horse is dropping drastically despite have run competitively in its last. The samples are mostly quite limited. Richard Dutrow, over the last five years, is 11 for 17 when dropping a horse ITM in its last by 50% or more. Anthony is 9 for 20. Contessa is 7 for 19; Levine, just 4 for 11.

Lake, on the other hand, is 50 for 107, for 47%. Even though he's had up to four times as many starters than the other trainers, he's still more likely to drop a horse off an ITM finish, and he wins a bit less than half the time. (And he's 12 for 22 when dropping a horse 50% off of a win.)

Of course, while these long term stats may (or may not) be interesting to you, more important for our purposes is keeping track of what they do now, at this meeting; and that's what we'll try to do here over the next few months. Lake got another winner on Sunday when Big Emi ($12.00) won the 9th; that's three in three days. The trainer claimed this one last time at the Meadowlands for 12.5K, and dropped him to 10K here.

Whatsmore, Lake was quite active at the claim box for owner Mike Repole, taking three horses, including two from leading owner Winning Move and their trainer Gary Contessa. Things could certainly liven up around here in a hurry. Lake took Hollywood Left for 50K from an optional claimer - Contessa had claimed him from Paul Pompa for the same price two races back; and he nabbed Sea of Trees for 30K from the 5th, in which the horse ran poorly off a claim from Dutrow. We might see that one for 15K the next time. Lake also took the well-traveled Golden Man for 10K, dropping from 18K for Arroyo.

Haynesfield was an impressive winner of the state-bred Damon Runyon Stakes for Asmussen; second winner of the day for that barn, and three of its last four. This is a two-year old son of the rookie sire Speightstown. The stallion had a lot of buzz at the sales last year and this, as well as when his first crop first hit the ground; and he's number four on the first-year sire list. However, Haynesfield is his first North American stakes winner, and his stud fee goes down from 40 to 35K for 2009. Haynesfield is out of a stakes winning mare by Tejabo (Deputy Minister); and he descends from the distaff family of the half-brothers Touch Gold and With Approval - the second dam of those two is the third dam of Haynesfield.

And last, but certainly not least, is yet another win for Kasey K Racing Stable, as King Mobay ($17.60) takes the opener, earning the winner's share of $18,000. Yes, he likes two turns, and he certainly took to the track in his second I.T. appearance. Joaquin Memphis was a disappointing 6th in the 5th race, but he came out of the race fine, as did the King. One out of two ain't too bad in this game.

Big A Saturday

- Scott Lake takes Saturday's fifth with Bubba Gum, another one dropping precipitously in class; this one from $22K to $10K. Lake claimed him for 25K at Philly in August. He won there for 20 next time out, earning $15,600, picked up another $3200 finishing third at the Meadowlands, and $11,200 for winning here. Plus, he was claimed by Bruce Brown, who, as the trainer for Kasey K, has vetoed many a claim prospect after inspecting it in the paddock That's a total return of $40,000, a gross profit of $15,000 in 3 1/2 months. Back to Formulator, and I see that Lake wins at 31% over the last five years with horses dropping at least 50% in claiming price.

The Toddster, facing 30 days for a positive test result involving Wait A While in the Breeders' Cup (the first BC positive, according to the Times' Bill Finley, since Lashkari in 1985), had two winners, including a first-timer in the 6th.

NAOS, within striking distance while off the inside, swung outward after turning for home, had a change of heart after a couple of strides, altering course back inward at the three-sixteenths, rallied in earnest when set down, reached even terms with the leader at the eighth pole, and edged away under a drive.

After the race, the two-year old son of Lion Heart had another change of heart after a couple of strides walking back to the barn, altered course to the Long Island Railroad station, and was last seen striding indignantly up the West Side Highway after unsuccessfully negotiating for a table at Per Se.

No luck this time for Shadwell and Kiaran McLaughlin, far back in 8th at 5-2 in his debut.

Pletcher then won the 8th with Flint River; Tizbig was 6th by some 14 lengths at 6-1 for Allen Jerkens. This is one of those horses that I just don't understand the fascination with; that's three races since his pointless start in the Travers, once at 7-5 and twice at 6-1, beaten by 30 combined lengths.

Get Stormy won the 7th, on the grass, for Tom Bush and jockey Sheldon Russell. This two-year old is by Stormy Atlantic. Here's one stallion who has not seen his fee for 2009 reduced. That's what happens when you have 15 stakes winners for the year; he ranks #8 on the general sire earnings list even though his biggest money earner (My Princess Jess) has made only $340,000.

Big A From A-far

- We're down in Florida for a long weekend at my parents' place near Sarasota. However, racing is a big global village these days, and one's location is really unimpotant as long as one has an internet connection and a betting account....preferably one with live video, as perhaps the geniuses in New York will one day allow NYRA and its OTB's to do. One would have to be a real degenerate to bet a race and then just wait until it's over to see the flash results on Brisnet's Super Tote. Right?

(Excuse me, the first race is coming up....)

Whew, well, that was fun! Well, c'mon, none of you used to bet at OTB and discover your fate on delayed tape via the stretch calls on WCBS? Or called the OTB result line at 976-1212? Or bet games and gotten the scores from Howie Rose for Sportsphone! Action is action, and there's a certain thrill no matter how one gets the result. Especially if he/she is a degenerate (sitting by the pool on a sunny Florida afternnon)!

Anyway, I bet a couple of exactas with the three horse on top; Targe, for trainer Michael Maker. Guess it would have paid to reverse those as well, eh? Maker is back on the New York circuit, with 25-30 horses at the Big A. You may recall that the trainer and his main man Ken Ramsey were active at Saratoga, and should they be as much so as they were in the claim box as they were up there, it could certainly serve to liven up the winter meet. The barn had eight winner from 25 starters at the Spa, and is coming off a phenomenal Churchill meet in which Maker won 31 out of 80 races for a Catalano-like 39% (and every single on one of those, except for one, was ridden by Julien Leparoux, not in NY at the preent time). Targe was 6-1, and I'll do much worse value-wise than getting that price on a stable like this. Looking forward to following this barn from here on out.

Another returnee on the scene is Scott Lake, back on the inner track with 25 horses, mostly for owner Mike Repole. Some people have their opinions on Lake and why he left in the first place, but he should too serve to liven up the winter claiming sport.

Lake is a guy whose intentions you gotta try and figure. On Friday, he took the first with Bombilla. Daughter of Silver Deupty won by four at 3-2, but she didn't look obvious to me. Lake claimed her out of a race at the Meadowlands for 25K, waited 31 days, and dropped her to 15K for this spot. Trying to pull one over? Or a case of damaged goods? Can't really conclude from the fact that she won that it wasn't the latter, considering that she beat a field of grass horses and milers in a two-turn dirt race. With the winner's share of $11,400 added to the $15,000 received via the claim box from trainer Dominic Galluscio, the whole exercise, yielding a profit of $1140, hardly seemed worth the bother!

Using Formulator, I see that, over the last five years, on only 16 occasions had Lake dropped a horse in claiming price by at least 50% fresh off the claim. Seven of those were winners. Bombilla didn't quite drop enough to add to that stat, but perhaps it's an indication that the barn is merely spotting these where it thinks it can win.

- Two Kasey K horses in action on Sunday - King Mobay goes in the first, a starters allowance for horses who have started for 10K or less in the last three years, for a purse of $30,000. You never know how these races are going to come up - this one is a bit tough I think. But I think King Mobay prefers two turns over the flat mile of his last. And Joaquin Memphis drops to a more appropriate level, running for 30K in the fifth. He won three races in four starts on the inner track last year. I hear it's supposed to get a bit chilly up there tomorrow; hope it's not too bad!

Aqueduct Notes

- Two winners, both two-year olds, in two days on the inner track for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and Shadwell. Aswaaq, graduating in his third attempt on Wednesday, is a son of Empire Maker purchased by the other Sheikh for $525,000 last fall. He's out of Queen Mama, an unraced Seattle Slew mare who's a half-sister to the multiple G1 winner Behrens, and to the dam of Cowboy Cal. This is also the family of Commentator; they have the same third dam.

Empire Maker is one of the prominent names we've seen of late who has had his stud fee slashed for next year, from $100K to $75K. He hasn't had much of an impact this season. He ranks #11 on the second year sire list, but has had just one graded stakes winner, and three overall this year. That's the kind of numbers that can eventually earn a stallion a one-way trip to Japan.

Taqarub won the 8th on Thursday for the connections; his second win in as many starts. He wired the field with Chavez - speed seemed to do quite well at six furlongs on this day, as skeptical as I am about track bias - easily making the step up to winners, and probably earning a mention for the Derby in someblogsomewhere. This is a son of Aldebaran, who has already sputtered his way to the Far East; the 2003 Met Mile winner is mired at 19th on the sophomore sire list, with no North American stakes winners this year. Taqarub is out of an Honor Grades mare who's a half-sister to the F&M Turf winner Soaring Softly.

Anthony Dutrow gets his second winner in two days with Jenay Benay in the first.

Trainer Scott Volk was second in the 9th with 7-1 Ballado Artist. Volk ended the Meadowlands meeting with two winners and a second, and a streak of 12-5-4-1. He won at the Big A on Sunday with 9-1 Unwritten. On Friday, he saddles Teddy Ballgame (5-2) in the 7th (scheduled for the grass, though it rained lightly for awhile this evening...doesn't take much to rain these races out this time of year, and maybe for good!) Forget his last at 11 furlongs; Teddy Ballgame was in career form winning his two prior. The first of those was off a freshening of a similar length to the one he comes off today. The second, a career best 89 Beyer, was preceded by a half mile work eight days prior; the identical workout pattern leading up to this one. I imagine that Volk will be quite disappointed if this one comes off the grass.

Odds and Ends

- Paul Post reports in the Saratogian that Wanderin Boy was the 19th fatality at NYRA tracks this year.

Prior to this weekend, NYRA had a fatality rate of 1.14 horses per 1,000 starts, compared to national averages of 1.47 and 2.03 per 1,000 on artificial and dirt surfaces, respectively.

Two horses died this summer at Saratoga from racing-related injuries.

I wonder whether these stats are even statistically significant - in other words, if you took the entire population of horses who started at NYRA tracks this year and put them in a field, where they can still take bad steps, crash through fences, develop colic or other disease, would significantly less than 19 horses pass away in 12 months time?

- Former governor Eliot Spitzer has been emerging from his shell of late. He attracted some attention last month with this op-ed piece in the Washington Post....so much so, that some people have seriously suggested that he be considered by President-elect Obama to head the SEC.

Yes, he hired a call girl, but so did Sen. David Vitter (La.), and he's still a sitting Republican senator in good standing, who apparently plans to seek re-election. Yes, he committed adultery, but so did Newt Gingrich (thinking about running for president), Rudy Giuliani (thinking about running for governor), and John McCain (the most recent Republican presidential nominee). [Washington Monthly]

Yeah, I wouldn't hold my breath. But now Spitzer has scored a gig as a columnist for Slate; here's his first column.

You're Welcome

- A commenter under the name Delaware North Companies writes:

The rumor and comments you have written about related to Delaware North's financing is absolutely false. Delaware North Companies is working diligently on completing the MOU and everything is going as planned. We would appreciate it if you would relay our message on your blog.

Thank you.

Not to be cynical or anything...and again, as I said, the rumors referred to are purely speculation (though certainly understandable given the incessant delays over the years), but the comment is essentially anonymous as far as I'm concerned. Anyone can leave a comment under that name - it could be Patricia Lynch or Darren Dopp for all I know. So if you're reading over there at Del North, we'd love to hear more about what's going on, what the issues are, and when you think the project will finally be underway.

Thank you !

- My pick at Aqueduct just plain sucked today, though not as badly I guess as Ravel, 6th at even money for the Toddster; nor the Levine entry which ran 6th and 7th at 3-5. Anthony Dutrow wins the finale, and I'd keep an eye out for him as mentioned before.

- Pull the Pocket jumps on the Maylan Studart merry-go-round; Saratogaspa brings my head down; and Handride explores what it really means to get down on a horse. (Actually not an original concept...though I hope it works out better for Leeroy.)

- Completely off topic: On this site, you can see some of the actual ballots that are being contested by one side or another in the Minnesota Senate race (and there are reports today that Democrat Al Franken has finally pulled ahead). Pretty fascinating stuff. For the most part, it seems pretty damn clear to me who the voter intended to select. But this voter (pdf document) has a special place in my heart! (It was the 4th quarter of the Jets game that made me want to hold my daughter this past weekend....though being that she's 19, I suppose it may have been inappropriate.)

If I find any ballots which have Curlin written in, I'll let you know.

Hunch Bets for Wednesday, Dec 3

Yes He's A Pistol 8th at Hollywood Park
Deadlocked 9th at Aqueduct
Drastic Tactics 8th at Golden Gate
Why Knot Us 4th at Golden Gate
Durable 9th at Turfway Park
Ready Eddie 7th at Charles Town

IT Time

- Inner track time at the Big A, and check out the conditions of the second race. It's a starters allowance, for two-year old fillies who broke their maiden for 50K or less, AND have never won a race other than maiden or claiming. Pretty cool - don't know if I remember seeing any starters allowances for two-year olds. With a $42,000 purse, it drew an interesting and competitive field; this being one of those starters allowances I mentioned that offer relatively cheap horses a chance to run for significant prize money. I'd surmise that some if not most of these will soon prove to be worth far less than the $25,200 first place share they're running for here.

Flame Throwin Suzi (4-1) is a particularly intriguing case. This daughter of Flame Thrower (Saint Ballado) was purchased privately by Contessa for Winning Move Stable after winning her first two at Delaware Park - an 11 length rout against unspeakably cheap 16K maidens, followed by a win in a restricted 45K claimer. In that race, she tracked the lead and gamely wore down Graceful Ginger, a legitimate looking horse who has since run competitively in allowance company. (The third place finisher won her next, albeit against cheaper in a slow race.) Eibar Coa jumps aboard. Flame Throwin Suzi is coupled with Sister Kathleen, cutting back to a sprint after seeming to find a niche around two turns.

She's My Fortune (5-1) also graduated at Del Park, and did so in 50K company in her only start. Daughter of Best of the Rest, a Skip Trial stallion standing in Florida for $2500, seemed an unlikely winner as they turned for home, but rallied well and drew off by three. Trainer Anthony Dutrow had an uncharacteristically slow fall meeting at the Big A, just three for 22. Over the last two years at the track, he has a win percentage of 24%; and last fall, he had six wins and five seconds from just 16 starts. What does this mean? First of all, that I have Formulator and a bit of time on my hands. And secondly, probably that he's due for some wins. Hopefully, not here.

Five Grand Girl (5-2) looms the horse to beat for John Kimmel, having won here for 50K in her debut. She did have a perfect trip, riding the rail as a pair dueled up front, and swinging out to rally by the tiring horses. Faithful One, who hung on for sloppy seconds, came back to win in the same company.

- There does seem to be some whispers around about the latest delay in getting the Big A racino underway being due to Delaware North losing their financing for the $370 million down payment; at least based upon some of the comments and emails I've gotten. I haven't found out anything, and would have to label that as pure speculation. But it did stand out to me that Governor Paterson had no retort to Senator Skelos' barb about not sending the MOU. And there's really no logical reason on earth, or even in Albany, for the governor to not be moving as quickly as he can. At this point, Paterson is likely becoming consumed with selecting a replacement for Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton in the US Senate. (I say it's Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand).

One thing I can tell you with reasonable certainty is that the state will not be lending any money to get this thing started!

Michael Gormley reports for the AP this evening that a state Senator from Sullivan County will introduce a bill to allow electronic table games at the upcoming Special Skelos Session on December 15. Senator John J Bonacic (R) said his proposal would bring $175 million in revenue to the state and could include any game of chance in an electronic or computer form.

Gift Rapped

- 5-1 in the morning line, Rap Tale, who has tended to get a bit overbet of late in my opinion, paid a whopping $25 winning a second level allowance in the slop at Philly Park on Sunday. Not the most agile of fillies around the turn with her long loping stride, this time you could tell she was relishing the going as she closed in on the leader turning for home. She earned a Beyer of 77 for the mile in a tardy 1:40 1/5; the final quarter of 27 3/5 ain't quite Somebeachsomewhere material, but she got the job done to earn $28,800. Rap Tale has won three times, and earned over $95,000 since Kasey K claimed her for $25,000 in May. Trainer Bruce Brown will look for a NW3x allowance at the Pha, where she's won her last two. Mark Hennig and Pletcher also shipped down for the race, and while I imagine that NYRA frowns upon the practice, it's easy to understand given the purses.

NYRA could sure use that slots money to compete, don't you think? It's been another couple of weeks since the leaders meeting in Albany, in which Senator Skelos chided Governor Paterson over his failure to produce the MOU needed to seal the deal, and I do wonder what's going on at this point.

Speaking of Somebeachsomewhere, Pull the Pocket asked if I had any video of the race finish. I do have something, but he may be sorry he asked.



Well, zero winners for Contessa over the four day holiday weekend at the Big A.

Friday saw what has to be the horse racing equivalent of the Gordie Howe hat trick - a winner each for the Dutrow brothers - Rick, Anthony, and little brother Chip "Don't Call Me Sydney" Dutrow.

A Darley Double in the 6th and 7th races on Sunday. First time starter Flashing won the 6th for Tom Albertrani, having a fine meeting at 32-7-6-7. Or, I should say, he had a fine meeting. Since Wednesday is technically the beginning of the winter meet, all the stats are wiped clean in the Form, and ain't that special? This barn is 3-2-0 with its last six. Flashing is by AP Indy, out of a stakes winning Machiavellian mare.

Then McLaughlin took the 7th with the highly impressive three-year old filly Seventh Street (Street Cry), moving up seamlessly to crush winners in her third career start. It is worth noting however that her two wins have both come over wet, sealed tracks at Aqueduct; a little fodder with which to perhaps be oppositional when she undoubtedly steps up to stakes company, the track is fast, and the odds are short.

Derby Doings

- Nah, I'm not nearly ready to talk about next year's Kentucky Derby, but here's a note about this year's. At least five horses that I know of who contested the 2008 Derby ran this past weekend; and four of them did so extremely well, three of those in Grade 1 stakes - though I think that one can reasonably opine that only one of the stakes runners should have been a winner. Perhaps they're trying to make a statement that the three-year old crop isn't as weak as we've made them out to be.

But the fact is that neither the Kentucky Derby, nor, to an extent, the Trail which leads to it, is a fair barometer on which to rate that year's three-year old crop. Each of the Derby horses who performed well over the weekend has found his niche - Court Vision and Cowboy Cal as grass horses, Tale of Ekati as a one-turn specialist, and Gayego, who set a track record on the Hollywood Derby undercard, as a sprinter. I think you could say unequivocally that two of those were intended for their present role all along, and were diverted from their true destiny by Derby fever. And I think we can do the same regarding Tale of Ekati with just a little hindsight thrown in. Good thing for the connections - and the horses - that they survived their misguided journeys of deluded grandeur and were able to move on. Court Vision I think was mostly good luck for an outfit having a whole lot of that this year.

Both Tale of Ekati and Court Vision are going to Florida, both apparently to race again next year. That's not a given for Grade 1 winners, especially one co-owned by Winstar as is the latter.

Encore Encore!!

- The three horse, around ten seconds into the above video, is the great Somebeachsomewhere, on the track Saturday night prior to what, at least we thought at the time, was to be his final career race before taking up at stud at Hanover Shoe Farm next season. Us thoroughbred folks have had the word "great" shoved down our throats this year with respect to a certain horse who really did little to earn it, at least since last March. I know that it's hard to compare the two sports given the more forgiving nature of gaited racing which permits standardbreds to race with far more regularity than flat horses. But this pacer has done everything that was asked of him, and more. He crushed high quality horses with ease in spectacular times, and did so while not always in peak physical condition, and despite challenging weather and track conditions and adverse pace scenarios. The one time he lost, he actually furthered his legend, absolutely dazzling in defeat.

His Breeders Crown victory was defining and decisive. No fooling around here; Paul MacDonnell took the champ right to the front, with ease, as Shadow Play felt the whip early. The rest was a mere formality - splits of 27, 27.3, 27.2, and rolling home on his own initiative in 26.3 for a final time of 1:48.3, while Dave Miller pressed the valiant Shadow Play fruitlessly. Even the cynical Handride, making his harness debut (and fresh off his crushing loss in the Cigar), was duly impressed. Simply amazing.

Overhearing snippets of conversations on the grandstand apron afterwards, I heard names such as "Niatross," "Cam Fella" and "Nihilator," as fans discussed some of the other greatest-of-all-timers they'd ever seen. Meanwhile, Somebeachsomewhere was headed back to the barn for what we thought was the final time. I found it a rather poignant scene - this historic animal walking away quietly into the night, with a handful of around 25 people on the grandstand apron applauding lightly. And when I walked inside, the glow of the event had already long passed, and bettors were directing their attention towards the small TV screens presenting the races from Pompano Park, Woodbine, Retama, and others. While the winners circle scene was crowded and festive, this aftermath was a far truer commentary on the current status of the sport. The Meadowlands was more crowded than for a typical Saturday night; but still, a prime grandstand seat right on the finish line was there for the taking throughout the evening. A long ways from Nevele Pride and Stanley Dancer on the cover of Sports Illustrated to be sure.

However, the scene seems not quite as poignant now, given the fact that Somebeachsomewhere will race again after all. Not often in the world of horse racing these days that a star horse answers the curtain call, as muted as it may have been at the track in this case. Trainer Brent MacGrath said:

"I feel badly that I didn't say anything before now, but if he'd shown the least little bit of tiredness tonight, it would have been his last race....But we decided to show him off a little bit more. [Toronto Globe and Mail]

Somebeachsomewhere will race in the Matron Stakes at Dover Downs on Dec 15 (elimination a week before if necessary), his first appearance on a 5/8ths mile track. And so The Beach goes on, at least for now.

- Not a happy ending for Deweycheatumnhowe, who obviously was not at his best following his throat abscess last week. Ray Schnittker, classy in defeat, claimed there was "no excuse," but we know that there was.

Breeders Crown

- Eight Breeders Crown races worth a total of $4.9 million at the Meadowlands tonight - and yes, that's Breeders without the damn apostrophe! All of the participants will have been in the detention barn since no later than 11:30 Friday night.

In the two-year old filly trot, I'll try to get things off with a bang with Timelesswinner Two (10-1). No doubt that she benefited from a perfect trip behind the cover of Yursa Hanover (6-1) when she just missed to that one in their elimination heat. But this consistent filly, who has legit excuses in her only two out-of-the-money finishes in 12 career starts (and who held her own against Explosive Matter, who will vie for favoritism in the colt and gelding division), is live at the price and can take this with a little racing luck. Honorable Daughter (5-2) set a world record for a 5/8ths track at Dover two back; she just got caught in her elim by the overlaid pocket rocket Musical Mystery (9-2) after setting the pace into a stiff wind which may have skewed the results towards closers, at least earlier in the elimination card. The aforementioned Yursa Hanover was giant, holding on after finding herself first over into that wind, and I wonder if the effort may take something out of her tonight.

Front-runners held up later in the card last Friday. But that may be because of the quality of the horses that ran later on, such as Hawaiian Drink (2-1) in the two-year old filly pace, for trainer Tracy Brainard. This daughter of Breeders Crown winner I Am A Fool brushed to the lead into that wind in her elimination last week, and came home in 26 1/5 for her 4th win in a row, and 8th in 12 starts. Fox Valley Topaz (15-1) got up for 4th in that heat after backing up to last. That was actually her first out-of-the-money finish in 14 starts, and she'd be a bargain at her morning line.

The three-year old filly trot features the top three finishers in the Hambletonian Oaks, who also knocked heads in the recent Matron Stakes at Dover Downs. Imagine, horses actually racing often enough to establish rivalries! Stage Show (7-2), third in the Hambo Oaks and first in the Matron, gets the edge here, in my humble opinion of course. She took a break after going offstride in consecutive races at the Red Mile, and came back raging with an elimination win before taking the Matron final. She was first over in her Breeders Crown elimination and got beat by a couple who she really shouldn't have lost to. Of course, that was just to qualify, and I look for a better result with a better trip here. Hambo Oaks winner Creamy Mimi (5-1) similarly bounced back in the Matron after going off form, but had no excuse when she had dead aim on the top pick in the final. Lantern Kronos (5-2) was 5th in that race with a bad post, and has another one here. Just two pari-mutuel races for this filly since she was scratched from the same-day final of the Kentucky Futurity on Oct 3, and I get the vibe that she may have lost her edge.

The two-year old trot for the boys seems an excellent race to just watch. It's a matchup of two young colts who have been simply brilliant thus far. Muscle Hill (7-5) is seven for eight, and hasn't really been threatened of late, least of all in his facile elimination win. Explosive Matter (5-2) is unbeaten in just five races, the most recent of which was his elimination win, accomplished 3/5ths of a second faster than Muscle Hill.

Deweycheatumnhowe is the 6-5 morning line favorite for the three-year old trot. He's beaten all of these before (though he's been beaten by two of them in the two times he's been beaten) in compiling his lifetime record of 22 wins in 24 tries. However, there are obvious questions given the throat abscess that caused him to spend a few days under observation at Cornell. Trainer/driver Ray Schnittker said that "about 80 percent better than he was before, so that's a really good sign." I don't know how encouraging that sounds, really. Don't want to see him get beat in his final start...but just in case, how about a flyer on Holiday Credit (10-1). This colt always puts in an honest effort, has proved that he belongs in this company, and could benefit from a good trip from the two hole. Crazed (4-1) has beaten the favorite in both of his defeats, and seems clearly second best on form. But I'm queasy about backing him from the far outside ten post in an 11 horse field (11 horse starts on the rail behind the 1 horse). Cloud Casino (20-1) seems a rank outsider, but is a hunch bet for those of us who grew up at Roosevelt Raceway.

In the two-year old pace for colts and geldings, this time I'll go for the horse from the ten post. Art Colony (4-1) is a nose and a head short of being unbeaten in six career races. A late starter who moved quickly into stakes company, he got a brief break before getting nosed late in his elimination by Captain Sir (8-1). Son of Artsplace figures to get enough action up front to set up a late surge and make amends here. Major in Art (9-5) has speed, the rail, and will be the one to run down with Sears. Dial Or Nodial (5-1) and If I Can Dream (8-1) both hung on to qualify after tough first-over trips, and either is capable with better racing luck tonight.

In the three-year old filly pace, Tug River Princess (3-1) meets up with Native Bride (5-2). Each has been spectacular this year, and each particularly so in her respective elimination last week. Tug River Princess won despite a tough first-over journey, and Native Bride made two powerful moves to get her 7th straight win. The latter was the winner of their only meeting, when she took advantage of her post position advantage to get the jump and force her rival to go first over against her. Tonight, Tug River Princess gets the rail, and the roles are likely to be reversed. But Native Bride was so visually impressive last week that I don't doubt she could handle the adversity. I give her the slight edge....but I don't see either one going off nearly as high as their morning lines. Likely a race to watch.

And finally, we save the best (arguably, say the Dewey fans) for last. The great, already immortal Somebeachsomewhere (3-5) will make his farewell appearance in the three-year old pace. This indescribably awesome son of Mach Three returns to the scene of his only defeat, which also may have been one of his best performances - his loss to Art Official in the Meadowlands Pace. And though Art Official is out of action with an injury, in his stead is another worthy rival in Shadow Play (4-1). The Little Brown Jug winner gave the Beach all he could handle in the Messenger at Yonkers (as if the weather and track conditions weren't enough). Though trainer Brent MacGrath and drive Paul MacDonnell lucked out in the post draw with number three, Shadow Play still has an advantage breaking from the two hole. Assuming that MacDonnell doesn't wish to engage Shadow Play in a damaging early duel for the lead, he will likely face a decision early on as to when and whether to engage. And chances are that Somebeachsomewhere will once again have to cede position to his rival on the turn for home. On the other hand, I doubt that Shadow Play will be allowed a second quarter breather as he got at Yonkers. Won't be easy, but here's betting that the Beach goes out a winner.

More on the races from Pull the Pocket. Best of luck and have a great day....and night.

Aqueduct Notes

- In today's third race, Kewland (8-1) goes second time off the claim for trainer Dominic Galluscio, and that's been a good angle for this barn - 24% over the last two years, with four winners and two seconds from the last nine applicable starts. Galluscio nabbed this one when she was exposed for 45K at Saratoga. He brought her back earlier this month, when she staged a wide, late rally against many of these to get third. Extra half furlong here can only help. Flying Dixie (2-1) held second in that race for Shug, and figures to be overbet here. American Queen (4-1) figures to have the lead, but the extra distance can't help.

In the feature, Ididntmeantoo (5-2) looks like a solid favorite for Richard Dutrow. The trainer has worked his usual magic with this one - two wins in as many starts since taking over for Doug O'Neill. Three-year old daughter of Fusaichi Pegasus out of Bella Chiarra (Phone Trick), a stakes winning half sister to the graded turf stakes winner David Copperfield, outdueled Frankel's talented Loving Vindication to earn a field high Beyer of 94 in her last, as the pair pulled away from the field (including Just Zip It) in an outstanding final quarter of 23 2/5.

Speaking of Just Zip It, our daughter of City Zip indicated that she's holding her form with a half mile work in 48.88 last Saturday; she's a possibility for an entry level open allowance race on Sunday. Also that day, Rap Tale is slated to go in another NW2x allowance at Philly Park, the same race in which she had a poor start last week.

Jumbo News

- You know that things are quiet when the top headline on the Form site reads: Clark serves as Magna Graduate's finale. I got nuthin'......though you may already have noticed.

So I expanded my reach overseas, and here's a couple of notes:

Legalized wagering, of sorts, on legalized horse racing is coming to the People's Republic of China for the first time since the Communists took charge in 1949, and banned gambling because they believed it was an immoral capitalist pursuit. [USA Today] The track, presumably built with more care than the country's schoolhouses, is located in the city of Wuhan. It has seating for 30,000 people, and contains the largest video screen in China, at 480 square meters. [Shanghai Daily]




Wo! Man, now that is a Jumbotron!! That makes the one at Aqueduct look like this.









The betting is some kind of lottery, and it's reported here that any winnings are prizes other than cash. So it doesn't sound as if there will be any pick six carryovers of note. The track is dirt, and no word if they'll try some weather modification on big race days.

From the UK comes a story about a Flopping favourite. Shiwawa was, according to a race preview, poised to strike in the catchily-named Call 01636 814481 To Sponsor A Race Maiden Stakes at Southwell. That's almost as bad as the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands.

But unfortunately, things went awry for this Darley-bred son of Halling, out of a Seattle Slew half-sister to Arc winner Rainbow Quest.

His price drifted out beyond 2-1 before the off, however, as money arrived for several of Shiwawa's opponents, including West With The Wind, without a win in six previous starts, who started as the SP favourite.

Shiwawa was slowly away and immediately under pressure from his jockey, who eventually pulled up with over half a mile still to run. West With The Wind, meanwhile, was soon at the head of the field and drew further clear from two out to win by seven lengths.

"Our betting intelligence team alerted the stewards after the race as to patterns on the horse," said Owen Byrne, a spokesman for the British Horseracing Authority.
[Guardian UK]

Hmmm, I don't think we have any betting intelligence teams here. Maybe the TRPB, but they don't seem to display much of the way of intelligence, so I guess not. I'm picturing a staff of statisticians in their BIT jackets poring over betting data, ready to call the stewards on the red phone at the slightest deviance.

As for Shiwawa, he was found to have an irregular heartbeat....so just maybe the conclusion to this story won't be that funny, though it would make for a good Dick Francis novel. The BHA expects to receive the results of Shiwawa's dope test within the next three weeks.

Penn Crap

- Penn National apparently has some serious designs on Atlantic City, with two casino projects on the drawing board.

One, said Penn National spokesman D. Eric Schippers, is along Route 30, where the zoning has been changed to allow gaming...He said Penn National has an option on a 23-acre site on Route 30, about a mile from the boardwalk.

In its preliminary plans, Penn National indicated it would like to build a 100,000-square-foot casino and 1,500-room hotel.
.....
The second location is at Bader Field, a former airport.

Atlantic City is seeking proposals for developing that area, and Schippers said Penn National intends to bid on property there.

In fact, it already has: In January it reportedly offered $800 million for the land, which it planned to subdivide, building a casino on one parcel and selling the other parcels to other casino developers. [TMCnet.com]

I mention this because, as you may know, Penn National is one of the partners which owns Freehold, and which has refused to sign the NJ purse subsidy agreement. I've defended, on principle, their resistance to signing an agreement which would limit their ability to compete, in the form of a restriction on their right to pursue gaming outside of Atlantic City. But this story kinda shows how full of it they are. Flush with $1.5 billion of cash received thanks to the cancellation of the takeover of the company by two private equity firms, they obviously have no shortage of opportunities to pursue in the state within the current guidelines. Makes one see how hypothetical and hypocritical their stance is, given just how unlikely the prospect of gaming outside of Atlantic City is, and the substantial capital and resources they already have earmarked to potential gaming inside of the city. Also makes one realize how anxious they must be to dispose themselves of a small potato like Freehold that can't possibly make them much money, if any, at all.

- According to my unofficial stats, trainer Gary Contessa has a six day winning streak going on at the Big A. He would have had two on Sunday had 15-1 Brother of Gold not shied from the whip and got himself DQ'd in the third; he took the sixth with Kamboo Man ($5.20). Another winner for Pletcher, whose Blues Street dead-heated for the win in the finale. Steve Zorn has some comments on the Pick Six and Pick Four payoffs that resulted.

I of course was watching the Jets game on Sunday, but managed to lose a little anyway. I took a fancy to Scholastic, first-time, on the grass, for Christophe Clement in the 4th. This well-bred daughter of Johar, out of a Royal Academy mare and from the distaff family of Henrythenavigator, was 10-1; I've noticed that you will sometimes see this barn's horses debut at a nice price and run well. So I was on board, and thought I had a winner until Americas Dreaming came along. An obvious one to follow up on, but next time she'll be a short price for sure, damn.

I recently mentioned the stallion Flatter, and the sire got his first graded stakes winner when Jack O'Lantern upset the G3 Hollywood Prevue; he was, by far, the longest shot on the board at 19-1.

Hunch Bets for Monday, Nov 24

Time To Win 9th at Finger Lakes
Unexpectedblessing 7th at Calder
What's Your Gender 5th at Zia Park
Former Star 8th at Beulah Park
Me Big Boy 6th at Mountaineer
Tightwad 10th at Zia Park
Best Game In Town 2nd at Turf Paradise
Phoney Hero 7th at Zia Park
Brief Fame 7th at Zia Park

Sunday Morning Notes - Nov 23

- I know that reader Steve in nc and others are waiting for me to blast NYRA about something, so as to demonstrate that my accepting their advertising hasn't made me soft. I would have done so had the silly rumor about them requesting a closure of the Big A this winter, with insufficient notice to the horsemen, had proven to be true. But it's not, so so much for that. And I don't know why the matter of an alternative Breeders' Cup would come up again since Charles Hayward explicitly shot that down last month.

But, here's something. After finally having gotten used to what was, at first, the wholly unnatural act of walking away from betting machines without a ticket in hand, having placed my bets using my NYRA Rewards account, now the machines are spitting wagering receipts back at me when I'm done. What the hell do I need those for? And most importantly, doesn't seem very green to me, now does it?!?

Harumph! What else? Oh yeah, there's the matter of the infield tote board at Aqueduct, which has more light bulbs missing than in all of these idiots' heads combined.

AND, IT WAS FREAKING COLD THERE ON SATURDAY!!

OK, happy now?

Well, I guess blinkers made a difference for Saturday's sixth race winner, Well Positioned. A no-threat sixth, some 12 lengths behind Saturday's race favorite Conservative in his debut, this two-year old Adena-bred son of Awesome Again whistled wire-to-wire by 14 lengths for trainer Patrick Reynolds at 31-1, yee-ha! You know that someguysomewhere is going "yeah, I told you that he'd kick butt with blinkers on!" This barn has two winners and a second with its last four runners here. Well Positioned is by Awesome Again, out of a Holy Bull mare. Paul Pompa paid $340,000 to purchase this one at the Adena sale earlier this year, and has a ways to go to get even still.

Listening to myself go on about trainer trends, I put a few bucks on Steel Drums, first time on the grass for Contessa, at 23-1 in the 4th. And I had a little excitement as he actually attained the lead with a wide move turning for home, before fading to 5th. This two-year old is by Fusaichi Pegasus, out of Kalypso Katie, a British stakes winning mare who's a half to EP Taylor winner Kool Kat Katie. So perhaps worth watching the next time she's on grass, whenever that turns out to be.

Of course I was gone by the time Contessa took the Discovery Handicap with Wishful Tomcat, so I didn't have that one. I just don't have the tolerance for much longer than two hours at that place these days. Lieutenant Ron, first time beyond seven furlongs, was one of several awful favorites on the card at 6-5. I did a good job of ID'ing those bad ones during the day - Conservative and Calimonco at even money, Drowning Bear at 2-1, Fidelio at 2-1 at Churchill. Unfortunately, that's only half the battle, but it's a key step, and I can usually take away at least some feeling of accomplishment from having correctly ID'd favorites to oppose.

Signs of life for the Toddster, who scored in the 4th with Swinging Bernie, and was a close second in the finale with Trevelyan; Pletcher is on a modest streak of 12-3-2-1, and has four winners from 30 runners for the meet. But two more winners for his former assistant Seth Benzel, now 19-7-3-0 for the meet. Benzel edged out his former mentor in that finale with first-timer Tiz True, 18-1 despite some nice grass breeding. This was an unbelievable rally, one of those races that you think you read the results wrong as you're watching the replay of the stretch run. Tiz True is by Tiznow, out of Amelia, a turf stakes winner by Dixieland Band, who is, in turn, out of Aquilegia, twice a turf graded winner; and that one is out of the great blue hen mare Courtly Dee.

- The gamble paid off in a big way for the connections of Somebeachsomewhere, as the pacer drew the three post for next Saturday's final of the Breeders' Crown Pace for three-year olds. So he gets a week off, and a fine position to boot. He may need it in order to defeat the way sharp Shadow Play, who toyed with his elimination heat last night, easing home in a final quarter of 26 flat.

Also a good set-up for the three-year old filly pacers with an impressive first-over win by Tug River Princess, and a dominant two-move tour de force by Native Bride, who now has a record of 20-16-3-0 this year; that's right, 20 starts, you gotta love that. Both of these fantastic fillies had to be supplemented to the Crown for $62,500 apiece. Native Bride defeated Tug River Princess in the Matron at Dover Downs, as the latter was forced to go first over against her rival. Should be a great night at the Meadowlands next Saturday, even if Deweycheatmunhowe doesn't make it back from his throat abscess. I'm definitely planning to go, and have already cleared this with the Head Chef. Handride is threatening to make his harness debut, so the pressure will be on since he thinks I know what I'm talking about.

Saturday Morning Notes

- Hambletonian winner Deweycheatumnhowe was noticed to have been "slobbering" this past week by his trainer/driver Ray Schnittker. A slobbering horse doesn't that sound unusual to me, but what do I know? Maybe he owns shares of Citigroup?

However, the colt is now at Cornell, where he's been found to be suffering from a throat abscess, and Schnittker says that "sucks;" Dewey is scheduled to race in next Saturday's Breeders' Crown Trot for three-year olds.

“In two years he has never had a thing wrong with him, so I guess it had to happen sometime. I’ll wait till Monday and see what I’m going to do. [US Trotting Association]

There was no elimination heat for the Trot, and Somebeachsomewhere gets the night off from the heat for the pacers tonight. Little Brown Jug winner Shadow Play, who battled the Beach to a neck loss at Yonkers, is listed as the 9-5 favorite. Though the top eight horses will make next week's final, the winner gets to select post position for next week, which, with Somebeachsomewhere subject to the luck of the draw, could be an equalizing factor. Keep an eye on Blueridge Western, coming off a game first-over placing against Shadow Play in the last race for both those colts. This gelded son of Allamerican Ingot has gotten really good late in the year, and qualified on a half mile track in 1:51.3 for this. Another horse on the improve is Bettor Sweet, coming off an upset win at Dover Downs in which he rallied extremely wide to catch a tiring Rudy Rednose, who'd set a torrid pace, and who figures to be prominent early again tonight.

Upsets early and favorites late in the eliminations for the two-year olds last night.

- This must sound like a broken record, but two more winners for Contessa at the Big A on Friday. He took the 6th, a 16K claiming affair, with Papi Chullo, and it seems not so long ago that I saw the trainer at the press conference in July 2007 which unveiled Win And You're In. Papi Chullo had won huge in his first two races for the barn, and Contessa was being asked about his upcoming showdown with Flashy Bull in the Whitney. Ah, those were the days, eh? Papi Chullo was claimed yesterday by trainer David Jacobson, so there's no limit to how cheaply we could conceivably see him run in the future.

Aqueduct Notes

- Reader Glimmerglass mentioned Toso, a six-year old mare who made her debut at the Big A on Wednesday, and won the 6th by three lengths at 6-1. Then, Steve in nc provided some buzz kill by pointing out the glacial time. Apprentice jockey Maylan Studart was on board. Jackie who?

Looks like trainer Edward Allard pulled one over in the second on Thursday. Barefoot Babe ($52.50) earned every bit of those 25-1 odds with a dismal sixth in a maiden claimer at Philly Park in her last. Here, she was moving up in class and making her first start on grass, and her first around two turns. However, if you don't mind a little pedigree-redboarding, her sire, Untuttable (Unbridled), wins at 14% with first time turfers, according to the Form. And she's out of a mare, by Sword Dance, who's a full sister to the multiple Grade 1 turf winner Marlin. So some nice turf blood there, and the trainer's first winner in NY in over two years.

Etched took the third at 2-5; here's one of those Darley horses who disappeared into Dubai oblivion after making a big impression as a two-year old last year. He won the G3 Nashua here last fall, and his only appearance since had been a 4th in a stakes race at Nad Al Sheba in February. A long ways from the Derby Trail for which he was no doubt intended. What the hell happens to these horses anyway? Etched is by Forestry out of the G1 winner Unbridled Elaine, whom the Sheikh purchased in foal to Etched for $4.4 million in 2004. According to Pedigree Query, she was subsequently bred to AP Indy, resulting in a colt named Broad Choice.

Another winner for Contessa, and two each for Enrique Arroyo and Dutrow. The latter took the feature with Into My Soul, as Relatively Ready, last seen in that allowance race disguised as a championship and known as the BC Juvenile Turf, lagged home in 7th. The winner is by Pleasantly Perfect, yet to make much of an impression with his first crop. Standing at Lane's End for $30,000 (down from $40,000 in his first two seasons), the 2003 Classic winner stands at number 21 on the rookie sire list; he got his first stakes winner earlier this month. This stallion didn't win his first race until he was four.

- Six racing dates and no purse subsidy for Atlantic City Race Course. 192 dates for Freehold, but the purse dispute between Pennwood and the horsemen goes on. SBOANJ president Tom Luchento said:

“Freehold’s fate is in its own hands. If they want to race 192 dates with an anemic purse structure and watch horsemen migrate to other racing jurisdictions, so be it." [Bloodhorse]

The horsemen will meet with the NJ Racing Commission on December 3.

- And finally, anyone worried about deflation can come and live around here.