Big A Sunday

- One of my pet peeves is when statistics are presented without any context, and I think I was guilty of just that in the last post. There, I noted that Scott Lake wins at 31% with horses dropping at least 50% in claiming price (he's 23% over all during that period). However, I think that's like when we see a hitter's lofty batting average with the bases loaded without noting that all good hitters have a distinct advantage when the pitcher's options are thusly limited. It also seems logical that horses dropping in class should do well overall.

So I checked the stats of some other trainers over the last five years. Bruce Levine is 25 for 78 (32%, vs 25% overall). Richard Dutrow is 33 for 83 (40%) (25% overall). His brother Anthony is 23 for 71 (32%) (26% overall). Contessa is at 22%, but he's a lower percentage guy (15% overall) than the others mentioned.

So it would seem as if the stat on Lake doesn't really mean that much. Perhaps of more interest would be to consider those class droppers who had finished in the money in its previous start. What I'm really after, after all, is an idea of how the trainers do when the drop seems "suspicious," such as when the horse is dropping drastically despite have run competitively in its last. The samples are mostly quite limited. Richard Dutrow, over the last five years, is 11 for 17 when dropping a horse ITM in its last by 50% or more. Anthony is 9 for 20. Contessa is 7 for 19; Levine, just 4 for 11.

Lake, on the other hand, is 50 for 107, for 47%. Even though he's had up to four times as many starters than the other trainers, he's still more likely to drop a horse off an ITM finish, and he wins a bit less than half the time. (And he's 12 for 22 when dropping a horse 50% off of a win.)

Of course, while these long term stats may (or may not) be interesting to you, more important for our purposes is keeping track of what they do now, at this meeting; and that's what we'll try to do here over the next few months. Lake got another winner on Sunday when Big Emi ($12.00) won the 9th; that's three in three days. The trainer claimed this one last time at the Meadowlands for 12.5K, and dropped him to 10K here.

Whatsmore, Lake was quite active at the claim box for owner Mike Repole, taking three horses, including two from leading owner Winning Move and their trainer Gary Contessa. Things could certainly liven up around here in a hurry. Lake took Hollywood Left for 50K from an optional claimer - Contessa had claimed him from Paul Pompa for the same price two races back; and he nabbed Sea of Trees for 30K from the 5th, in which the horse ran poorly off a claim from Dutrow. We might see that one for 15K the next time. Lake also took the well-traveled Golden Man for 10K, dropping from 18K for Arroyo.

Haynesfield was an impressive winner of the state-bred Damon Runyon Stakes for Asmussen; second winner of the day for that barn, and three of its last four. This is a two-year old son of the rookie sire Speightstown. The stallion had a lot of buzz at the sales last year and this, as well as when his first crop first hit the ground; and he's number four on the first-year sire list. However, Haynesfield is his first North American stakes winner, and his stud fee goes down from 40 to 35K for 2009. Haynesfield is out of a stakes winning mare by Tejabo (Deputy Minister); and he descends from the distaff family of the half-brothers Touch Gold and With Approval - the second dam of those two is the third dam of Haynesfield.

And last, but certainly not least, is yet another win for Kasey K Racing Stable, as King Mobay ($17.60) takes the opener, earning the winner's share of $18,000. Yes, he likes two turns, and he certainly took to the track in his second I.T. appearance. Joaquin Memphis was a disappointing 6th in the 5th race, but he came out of the race fine, as did the King. One out of two ain't too bad in this game.