Odds and Ends

Of the 8700 layoffs of state employees announced by Governor Paterson, six are from the Racing and Wagering Board. So if New York is serious about stepping up its efforts to clean up the game, it will have to do so with less manpower.

- The state took over New York City OTB last June, and the operation continues to lose money according to the NY Daily News.

"We really need to reexamine it," said Sen. Eric Adams (D-Brooklyn), chairman of the Racing & Wagering Committee. "Is it they're not making money or are we overtaxing them?"

Does Senator Adams really need to ask that question?

- With Monticello Raceway having been reported to be on the brink, and with Louis Cappelli's plan to relocate the track at a lavishly rebuilt Concord on hold due to economic conditions, Cappelli and Monticello owner Empire Resorts announced a new deal late last month to keep the current racetrack open....AND proceed with a somewhat scaled down Concord project which would also include a track and racino. So, let's get this straight. The area is having trouble supporting one racetrack and slots parlor (the only one in the state to see a gambling decline this year), so instead, they'll have two just a few miles apart. Only in New York. The Times Herald Record reports today that the St. Regis Mohawk tribe, rebuffed in their efforts to build a full-blown casino at the Monticello track last year, are prepared to give it another shot.

- Republican Jim Tedisco, who resigned from his post as Assembly Minority Leader last week, leads Democrat Scott Murphy by 17 votes - from over 154,000 cast - in the latest tally on the 20th CD special election posted on the NY State Board of Elections website. Despite a report that renowned Republican dirty trickster Roger Stone was spotted at Tedisco's HQ, both the campaign and Stone deny that he's involved (yuk yuk).

- The Rangers took full advantage of a tired and injury-depleted Montreal Canadians squad and posted a well-earned 3-1 victory here at the Garden last night. The Broadway Blueshirts can earn their 4th consecutive playoff berth with a win over the Orange Crud at home tomorrow night. Much-maligned captain Chris Drury gave the home team some breathing room with his second tally of the night.

Getting it Right

Evangeline Downs opens tonight with a new turf course and lofty ambitions.

Coming off a record-breaking 2008 that featured all-time records in both simulcast handle and total handle, and in field size average, Evangeline Downs will offer horsemen a solid stakes schedule as well as a nightly overnight purse structure of about $175,000 a night. Downs last year ageraged almost 10.2 starters per race over spring/summer season, the highest in North America. This year they are looking for an 11.9 average. [Daily World]

And it's little surprise as to what is the engine of success not only at Evangeline, but in Louisiana in general.

“It’s all about slot machines and OTBs (off track betting sites),” said Warren Harang, President for the Louisiana Thoroughbred Breeders Association (LTBA) Board of Directors. [Daily World (different article)]

Unlike in New York (and like every other state with OTB's), off-track betting supplements rather than competes with the tracks. And, unlike in nearly every other racing state with VLT's, the tax rate on the slots is low - less than 35% - and the horsemen fully reap the rewards.

According to Tom Early, the CEO for LTBA, the owner of a horse at the time of its birth (i.e., breeder in the majority of cases) receives 22 percent of earnings by that horse as long as they are won at a state racetrack.

“That’s why Louisiana thoroughbred racing is thriving,” Early said. “That money back to (the breeder) doesn’t come from the owner at the time of the race or from the race purse, it comes from an incentive program based on money from slots and gaming that are directed to the thoroughbred racing industry.

“For once, Louisiana got it right. Other states with slots and gaming were asking for 8-10 percent (of gambling revenue) for purses, we asked for 15 percent and they gave it to us. That money has helped Louisiana thoroughbred racing thrive at a time when it’s tough to be in business.”

Thus, the breeders have incentive to breed - “Last year, when every yearling sale in the country was down, we were up. Our average went up 43 percent" - owners have incentive to race for generous purses, fields are full, attracting simulcast bettors around the country, which increases handle, which flows into government coffers (a lower percentage of a booming business is better than a high percentage of a struggling one), and everybody is happy. It's not really that complicated, is it?

Binn There Done That

The chart comment for Gone Astry, the winner, for Shug, of the 3rd at Aqueduct on Saturday reads that he drew away under good handling. And I realized that, even after all these years of seeing that phrase in the charts, I really have no idea exactly what under good handling means. The main thing i want to know about the winner from the chart is, quite simply, whether the horse won with something to spare or had to be ridden hard by the jockey. Under good handling doesn't tell me either!

Besides, chart comments are just one person's opinion; and one which I disagree with more than just occasionally. As you may have noticed in the comments section of this and other blogs, a hundred horseplayers can see the same race and interpret it a hundred different ways. It's what makes the game go 'round. So why would you just take one person's word for it? That's why I try to watch as many relevant replays as possible.

Watching Gone Astray's race, I saw a three-year old colt who is still learning the game; a little green perhaps but a really nice, easy way of going with speed seemingly in reserve while defeating older horses. Seven furlongs in 1:23.60, as opposed to 1:23 flat in the Bay Shore. This being a Phipps homebred, Shug can handle him patiently as he prefers, and I'd look for this one to climb the allowance ladder before attempting stakes late summer and fall should he prove up to the task.

Gone Astray, inbred, 4x2 to Mr Prospector, is by Dixie Union, out of an unraced Mr. Prospector mare who's a half to the champion Phipps filly Smuggler; his second dam is the champion Inside Information.

- Capt. Candyman Can, the winner of the aforementioned Bay Shore, is the 4th horse to win coming out of the Fountain of Youth; plus, Taqarub was a nice second in the Bay Shore, and Theresgoesjojo hardly disgraced himself with his troubled third in the Florida Derby. The FOY was a weirdly run race, as Quartercracked Quality Road and subsequent winner This One's For Phil dueled a nutty second quarter of around 21.65. Others such as the Candyman may have flattened out after running too hard just to keep up. Third place finisher Beethoven, who stayed far back from the action early on, has not yet run back, and is now doubtful for the Derby.

- Edgar Prado rode Gone Astray, as well as Montecore, a promising NY-bred three-year old who won the 6th on Saturday by open lengths cutting back to a sprint. Puchased by Puglisi Racing for $400K last year, Montecore is by the Storm Cat sire Hold That Tiger, presently holding court in France, out of a Gulch mare. His second dam is a half-sister to a horse named Jose Binn, and anyone else remember him? Sometimes I'll come across the name of a horse that really jars the memory; and then I'm shocked to see that my recollections are from, as in this case, some 30+ years ago! Jose Binn won the Great American Stakes at Belmont in July of 1978 and paid $15; I'm sure I must have had him that day. He went on to win the Arlington-Washington Futurity, a Grade 1 at the time.

But Jose Binn suffered near fatal injuries when he was stomped on by General Assembly in the Hopeful at Saratoga. The horse recovered, but ran only once at three before retiring to a very modest career at stud. One of his sons is the sire of a half-sister to the third dam of Rachel Alexandra. And how do I know all of this? The Head Chef is out being a head chef and I have a little time on my hands..

- Carter winner Kodiak Kowboy is the first Grade 1 winner for Posse.

- A troubled 103 Beyer for I Want Revenge; 96 for Pioneerof the Nile....98 for Musket Man.

- Not much bang for the buck for the Yanks on Opening Day. CC Sabathia ($161,000,000.00) was tagged for six runs in 4 1/3; and Mark Teixeira ($180,000,000.00) was 0-4, leaving five men on base, including the tying run on third in the 8th, after which the Orioles tacked on four to win 10-5.

- I've heard some people say, what's the big deal, Air Power is all-natural. But so is baking soda and cobra venom.

Odds and Ends

Jeff Mullins told the Thoroughbred Times' Ed DeRosa that the "mix up" over his actions in the detention barn before the Bay Shore was the fault of the security personnel there.

“They looked at everything I carried in, so when they let me through [with AirPower], in my mind, everything was fine.....Everything was out in the open. Two investigators watched me give the horse the treatment then five minutes later they wanted to see it. If they saw the AirPower and dosing syringe on me the whole time, then why didn’t they stop me?" [Thoroughbred Times]

Well, maybe they didn't stop him because they were too busy lifting their jaws up off the ground, shocked as they must have been to see someone so blatantly violating what are extremely clear cut rules against administering any medication in the detention barn. And, as Handride eloquently points out, it matters not one whit what he was giving the horse...or, perhaps we shall say in this case involving a known cheater, claiming to be giving the horse, legal or not...nor the fact that the syringe was not a needle but an oral syringe which sprays the substance in the horse's mouth. A rule is a rule, and that particular rule is the entire point of isolating the horses before the race in the first place. “I’ve never had a good experience anytime I go to New York, and I will avoid New York at all costs,” Mullins said. And we're all disappointed to hear that.

- As if you don't have enough unknowns to deal with in determining the Derby winner this year, early in the synthetic track era as we still are, Quality Road has a quarter crack.

- Bill Strauss, one of the owners of The Pamplemousse, tells Hank Wesch of the San Diego Union Tribune that the colt is out for the year.

A veterinary procedure yesterday morning revealed what part-owner Alex Solis II described as a “small lesion” on the tendon.
.....
“He's too good a horse to mess with. We'll give him all the time he needs to recover. We'd love to get him back to where he was (physically) before it happened and aim for the 2010 Pacific Classic.”

- It's come down to this - three games to go, hanging on to the 8th and final playoff spot by a nose. The Rangers can correctly claim that they played well in two tough road losses to two fine teams on hot streaks. But the team's top players have consistently failed to come through in the third period of these tight games. After 79 games, it's hard to see why that will change. Having said that, they have the next two games coming up at home, and are still in with a shot. Whatsmore, they've hardly been outclassed in the four games they've split with the first place Bruins, who they would meet in the first round should they get in. So there's still hope!

Where Have I Read That Before?

Joe Drape reports in the NY Times this morning on the incident involving Jeff Mullins and Gato Go Win prior to the Bay Shore at Aqueduct on Saturday. And while he adds that the trainer was actually observed administering the substance, Air Power, to the horse, the article is rather striking in its similarity to the original reporting by Ed DeRosa in the Thoroughbred Times. It repeats the claims on the company's website, and reported in the original piece, that the drug cannot be tested for, and also notes, in only slightly altered language, the 2005 incident that led to Mullins' notorious observation - “If you bet on horses, I would call you an idiot,” - that he made to LA Times columnist TJ Simers. And unlike a short piece on the incident in the LA Times this morning, the NY Times gives no credit to the Thoroughbred Times for breaking the story. And though I personally missed the original sequence last week and therefore won't comment myself, I did read some bloggers complain that the Times similarly pilfered the story on the Paranack mares from the Paulick Report.

Mullins Not a Candidate for MENSA

The Thoroughbred Times reported that Jeff Mullins was caught with a syringe in the detention barn prior to the Bay Shore on Saturday in which his Gato Go Win was entered; that's why the horse was scratched.

“Our stewards are investigating an incident inside NYRA’s detention barn on Saturday afternoon....NYRA security personnel advised the stewards that Mr. Mullins was observed attempting to administer an over-the-counter product called Air Power to [Gato Go Win] in the security barn. He had also apparently taken a syringe into the security barn." [Thoroughbred Times]

I suppose that Mullins will say that the substance is not illegal, and that he didn't know the rules since he rarely runs horses here. Any perhaps that is the truth of the matter. But seriously, how stupid can a person be? Walk into a detention barn on the 3rd or 4th biggest racing day of the NY racing season (with cops crawling all over the track....what was that all about?), with a syringe? Makes one think he might walk into airport security packing an AK-47!

Michael Iavarone really knows how to pick his Derby horse trainers, though in this case, he has no choice under the terms of the purchase agreement by which he bought into the bandwagon....unless, as reported in the TT piece (a fine job of reporting by Ed DeRosa), the colt finishes out of the money in multiple races. Last year of course, Dutrow admitted to using steroids and they ended up getting banned, so maybe now they'll ban syringes too. Anyway, until such time that I Want Revenge finishes off the board multiple times, breeder/co-owner David Lanzman gets to make the call on who trains and rides. Perhaps he took some comfort that Mullins at least had the good sense to not try and pull the same thing with I Want Revenge prior to the Wood.

Iavarone expressed concern that the story could "take away from the performance of I Want Revenge."

"I went through this last year, and it’s disturbing to me again that attention could be taken away from the horse.”

But he's just concerned about his investment, and that it shouldn't be tainted so as to lose value. The horse doesn't care about the attention. In fact, he'd probably prefer to be left alone.

Perfect Prep

My concern about I Want Revenge on Saturday, in terms of his validating his Gotham romp, getting a useful prep, and proving himself to be a true top three contender for the Kentucky Derby, was that there simply wasn't enough competition in the race (skeptical of Imperial Council as I was). But the horse created his own adversity with his lethargic start by which he spotted the field several lengths. And, in overcoming that handicap to win the Wood, his connections lucked into an absolutely perfect prep. Not only did the son of Stephen Got Even affirm his tactical adaptability, he took some (real) dirt in the face, encountered the kind of traffic blockage he's likely to find in a 20 horse field, and demonstrated a fierce will to win in accelerating through a narrow opening and bursting through to victory.

And, on top of all that, he left a lot in the tank; at least according to his jockey and trainer.

“He actually had a great trip,” said Talamo... “He was on the rail the whole way and got to save ground."
....
“I thought today was a fairly easy race for him,” [Jeff Mullins] said. “To be honest, he only ran the last eighth of a mile, so I don’t think it took too much out of him." [NY Times, as Joe Drape takes a break from this to actually write about a horse race]

After lagging behind the field, running his first quarter in 25.71, I Want Revenge ran subsequent splits of 23.72 and 23.58, slowed to 24.53 as he waited for room, and then re-broke to a final eighth of 11.96. Standing in the winner's circle after the race, amidst a large group of undoubtedly new owners after his half-sale to IEAH, the horse looked more like he'd just arisen from a nap rather than run a mile and an eighth. This could certainly be your post-time favorite at Churchill.

After the scratch of The Pamplemousse (lower body injury; the owners would not specify which leg so that his rival horses would not be tempted to kick him in it next time), and the subsequent scratch of potential rabbit Z Day, Pioneerof the Nile also faced the scenario of his final prep not being as useful as he might need. In this case, not only did the colt break well, but he again proved to be tough for Garrett Gomez to handle, tugging him up to the lead as the pace dawdled down the backstretch. In the stretch, he seemed all out to hold Chocolate Candy safe in a hard driving final quarter of 12.50 (final 3/8ths in 36.77).

Unlike Jeff Mullins and Joe Talamo, this colt's connections expressed disappointment with the way the race went. Bob Baffert said: "We wanted an honest pace....This horse has been taken out of his game the last two races." And Garrett Gomez explained:

“I feel it was a carbon copy of his last race, and we weren't trying to accomplish that...

“I was just a little disappointed I wasn't able to get it done the way we wanted to....You're always happy to win the Santa Anita Derby, but just knowing the next step for him, I was trying to get a little more preparation for the next step....I wasn't able to accomplish that.” [SignOnSanDiego.com]

There's enough uncertainly surrounding this son of Empire Maker to start with given the fact he's never run on the real stuff. Given what I thought was an uncertain final prep, I'm thinking that I'd want odds in the region of 8-1 come Derby day, and don't think I'm going to get it.

And a highly disappointing third place finish for Stardom Bound in the Ashland, and I guess I'll have to eat a serving of humble pie on this one, defending her desperate win in the SA Oaks and ridiculing the decision to take her off the Derby Trail as I did. No excuses here, and now she doesn't even sound certain for the Kentucky Oaks. With the benefit of hindsight, the 24-1 odds on winning Hooh Why, compared to the 7-10 on a filly who beat her by two noses last time out, has to be the overlay of the year. Hooh Why is by Cloud Hopping, a Mr. Prospector mare who is apparently either dead or residing in some foreign land, as he's not listed in the Stallion Register.

All the Bad News

I noticed not a single word in the Times this week about the Wood Memorial, New York's main contribution to Derby fever, and, by far, the highlight of the spring racing season here (not that that's saying much). But ah, a story about neglected thoroughbreds sold for slaughter, complete with a disturbing photo and grisly details about puncture wounds and lice....and it's on the front page of the sports section. I'm not sure what Joe Drape and the Times see their role or function as, and I'm not saying that they have any obligation whatsoever to serve as publicists for the sport. On the contrary, a newspaper should report all of the news, whether positive or negative. But when it comes to racing, the New York Times is "All the Bad News That's Fit to Print Even If We Can't Find Any Space For the Good."

Best Saturday Ever?

Best Saturday ever

The seven events you can't miss - PAGE 34

So it says on the cover of this week's Time Out New York. And as I was turning to that page, such is my naive hopeful nature that I have to admit that the thought that, just perhaps, one of those events would be the Wood Memorial, popped into the back of my mind (and stayed right there). Guess I'm still a dreamer. I mean, there's no doubt that Saturday's 11 race card has to be more worthwhile than Passover in Pasties or Yuri's Night NYC!





Er....right?!?

Ten Bucks A Dance

The budget debate slogs on in the Senate as Democratic Senator Ruth Hassell-Thompson returned, briefly, after being hospitalized yesterday. By law, each budget bill needs 32 votes to pass, and with no Republicans expected to cast a vote in favor, the Democrats, with their 32-30 'majority,' need each and every member present and accounted for. But in a rare moment of bipartisanship cooperation (I think a more appropriate term), Senate Minority Leader Dean Skelos allowed her to cast a vote in favor of all of the bills and go home.

Meanwhile, buried in the Budget: Transportation, Economic Development and Environmental Conservation Article VII Bill, on page 39, is a clause which will effect the wallets of horsemen throughout the state.

§ 112. Fee for the start of a horse in New York state pari-mutuel races. 1. In order to provide supplemental funding to support the operations of the state racing and wagering board, a fee in the amount of ten dollars shall be assessed and paid upon every horse entered in a pari-mutuel race in New York state that actually starts in the race....The state racing and wagering board shall, as a condition of racing, require any corporation authorized under this chapter to conduct pari-mutuel betting at a race meeting or races run thereat, to require that each owner racing a horse shall have placed on deposit at the time of entry with the horsemen's bookkeeper or similar office of such corporation the required fee in the amount of ten dollars per horse entered in a pari-mutuel race.

Although it's not specifically stated in the bill, I'm told that the money is to go towards drug testing, a cost which, at one time, was borne by the tracks...at a time when they used to make money. Joe Faraldo, the president of the Standardbred Owners Association of NY (back from Monticello where he competed on Wednesday against a group of visiting Italian amateurs [he threatened to fatten them up beforehand at Don Peppe's]), feels that the tracks should, at the very least, bear a portion of the payments in the same 75/25 split as the tracks and horsemen receive from VLT's (approx 32% vs 8.75% for the horsemen). (And this of course at the harness tracks, where there actually are slots!) Faraldo figures that the fee will cost the state's horsemen a nice chunk of change while the tracks are off the hook:

"Annually, NYRA runs 253 race cards with an average of nine races, for 2335 races; Finger Lakes, 159 race cards at approx 8/9 races per card - 1431 races; and all harness tracks in NYS a combined 939 race cards averaging 10 races/card - 9390 races. Rough estimate (underestimated on harness side) = 13,000 total races conducted. Taking 10 as the average number of starters/horses stepping on track in a given year times $10 a starter = $1.3 million dollars. Nice piece of change all coming out of our pocket solely. This while we argue that the tracks don't give a damn about racing and while the tracks look to get extended hours and table games. Those two items alone would account for an estimated 20% more revenue. Granted this is a shared benefit but the cost of the ten bucks a dance belongs just to us. What's next? Maybe nothing can be done but we all need to educate as best we can whoever we can so that this logic doesn't end up having us some day pay entry fees for overnight races or pay for the track maintenance or other costs that are the tracks'."

- What's next in the 20th Congressional District is absentee ballots, lawyers, waiting, lawyers, more hot air, and more lawyers. The race to replace Kirsten Gillibrand is a dead heat, with Democrat Scott Murphy leading Republican Assembly Minority Leader Jim Tedisco by a mere 25 votes out of some 155,000 counted thus far! Wow, talk about a barnburner!

He Wants Revenge

I Want Revenge drew the rail for the Wood Memorial, and was made the 4-5 morning line favorite. Man, that is one impressive collection of past performance lines. Sometimes, a horse exudes class to me just from looking at him in the Form, and this one looks dynamic....on paper, anyway. Never out of the money in seven starts; big time improvement since stretching out to two turns, with two close losses to Pioneerof the Nile followed by his breakout performance in the Wood Gotham.

Anyone who manages their Derby campaign according to the Sheets would be feeling good here. Perfect time for a little bounce off the 113 Beyer. Monarchos and the late Genuine Risk are two horses on whom I scored big time in the Derby after they lost in the Wood.

However, breeder-owner half-owner David Lanzman told the Form (and anyone else on the conference call): "It's almost scary for us; we think he's better now than he was going into the Gotham." Doesn't sound like he's looking for a bounce.

I have to laugh thinking about Michael Iavarone's desperate quest to buy belatedly into a piece of the Derby action, which I surmise started just hours after Patena's disappointing Louisiana Derby run with an offer to the connections of Win Willy, and perhaps included placing some ads on Craigslist Millions offered for Derby hopeful. Just seems to me that it gets to a point where one should just give it up. We all know that Iavarone is a fine judge of equine talent; and there's nothing wrong with not having a Derby horse (though I think he has one, running at Keeneland on Saturday[first-time Dutrow]). It was Lanzman (and good for him for cashing out in what he called "a life-changing score", AND retaining a piece of the action AND getting a piece of Stardom Bound!! Dude!!!) who bred this colt out of a mare, by Roy (Fappiano), with a two for 15 career record, and descending tail-female from an obscure Argentinian family with a decidedly modest background. I Want Revenge, by Stephen Got Even, is a complete outcross through five generations, which seems to be a relative rarity these days. The thought of Iavarone high-fiving in the winner's circle just seems so phony and contrived. But I guess it's just business.

Imperial Council is second choice at 2-1. I wouldn't be surprised if he's bet even lower, coming off his close for second in his first two-turn try for Shug. People around here love horses like that. Serling has this horse as #1 on his Paulick top ten list, so he'll probably be touting him at the track. So he could be an underlay here; I thought his two-turn debut was inconclusive with his late run after a ground saving trip. I'd look to leave him out of the exacta to try and get some value. But it's not a deep Wood field and I haven't come up with anything yet.

The main track opened - finally! - on Wednesday, with a parade of front-running winners. The highest win price on the day however was $8.30. So was it a speed bias? Or a case of mostly short-field races running to form?

Back on Track?

Aqueduct slots get back on track.

At least according to this report in the NY Daily News.

All bids should be received by today and vendors will be required to pay money upfront, said state Sen. Joseph Addabbo, whose district includes the underused racetrack.

“By March 31, we’ll see what kind of bids are out there,” Addabbo said Friday. “We can’t start the [request for proposals] process all over again. Hopefully, this year, we’ll see work and money.”

An ambitious goal indeed considering the years of delay. Assemblywoman Audrey Pheffer noted the lack of support for slots at Belmont in the Assembly (meaning, by Sheldon Silver), and explained: "Aqueduct is the home of winter racing. It's centrally located. The train stops right there."

With all due respect, I think that's an argument that Assemblywoman Pheffer doesn't want to make. Belmont clearly has the advantage in that respect with the Long Island Railroad link from Penn Station in Manhattan. Ask the average Manhattanite if he or she would be willing to take the hour-plus ride on the A train to Aqueduct, and they might look at you as if you asked them if they wanted to spend some quality time in the local OTB.

With the budget resolved...at least in the minds of the three Democratic leaders...perhaps we'll get some more definitive news on the Big A in the next few weeks. Attention is also turning to the plan to save NYC transit riders from the draconian fare hikes and service cuts - including the planned phase-out of that Belmont link - promised by the MTA if no bailout plan is reached in Albany. However, Governor Paterson said today that tolls on the East and Harlem River bridges, a key component of the Ravitch plan, are off the table. Back on January 27, I wrote on this site that the plan to toll those bridges has no shot. And that's just part of my continuing effort, given the rarity of recent successful racing picks, to point out that I am sometimes right about some things.

Fan of the Game

I guess you can't make out the nice tan..

Better yet, the Rangers crushed the Devils in a crucial 3-0 win, played before a raucous Monday night crowd warming up for what we hope will be the playoffs in two weeks. It was a spirited effort all around, and a thorough beating of their chippy and frustrated cross river rivals, losers of five in a row. With Henrik Lundqvist in the nets, the Rangers are 18-6-4 against the Devils record-setting crybaby goalie Martin Brodeur. The Broadway Blueshirts remain in a precarious spot however, with a small cushion over 9th place Florida, and a tough schedule ahead in their final five games. I remain upbeat, as I and just a relative handful of others has throughout the season; but they're not in yet.

Dunkirk Dazzles Too

I know everyone is ga-ga over Quality Road, and not to take anything away from his Florida Derby effort, but I thought Dunkirk really ran a hell of a race as well. I think it certainly would be a mistake to be dismissive of his chances in the Derby....other than of course the minor problem that he may not qualify on graded stakes earnings. It was just his third career start remember; his first against stakes company and his first in five weeks. Quality Road (passing the two-turns test with flying colors) stalked what I suppose was a quick pace. Hard to say for sure given the fast fractions all day and the fact that this was the only two turn dirt race (which makes the winner's 103 figure a bit of a Fake Beyer). But I think one can make the argument that he had a good trip, especially if you accept the notion that the track there was speed favoring.

I mean, you gotta love the way Dunkirk rallied up to the leader in a seemingly effortless manner while five wide; it was kind of comical seeing Johnny V look over his shoulder inside as the challenger was ranging up wide. That was one impressive brush, and from pretty far back too. According to Formulator (and I'm still hopelessly hooked on the software version, even though it requires me to run Windows on my Mac), Dunkirk got the final three eighths in a race-best 36.73, and while taking the circuitous route too. Once he got to the leader, he was confronted with a quality opponent for the very first time. Quality Road was certainly impressive in rebreaking, retaking and retaining his lead. But I didn't see anything that indicates that on another day, with another race under his belt, with a more contentious pace, some added distance, a shorter route home, and, perhaps, a better timed move, Dunkirk couldn't turn the tables. Whether that will happen in the Derby (if he even gets in), I'm not sure; I hate the way he's being campaigned. I love the Toddster as you know, but when it comes to the Derby, he's like a baseball manager who changes his style in the postseason, eschewing the hit and run, or using starters out of the bullpen. Nonetheless I'm putting Dunkirk at #1 in my Paulick list just for fun. I mean, it's supposed to be fun, right?

I also dropped Friesan Fire from second to ninth just because Larry Jones would even consider training this horse up to the Derby. Seven weeks off, and no prep beyond a mile and a sixteenth? Are you kidding me? I'll be betting and rooting in full throat against this one if Jones tries to pull this off, especially since he'll still get bet. Even without the bet, I'd still root against, because it certainly wouldn't be a promising precedent as far as our Derby season goes.

And how nice for the Sheikh of Dubai. He can spend millions to pick off promising two-year olds, bring them home, run them in stakes races which he himself funds with outlandish purses so that they can blow away the American competition on graded earnings and deprive spots to horses of more modest and, perhaps, heartwarming origins. Who's idea was it to count these races towards Derby earnings anyway? Just look at his Royal Sheikhness beaming in this photo; just warms the heart, doesn't it?

And why exactly should I care about Mafaaz?

Silver in Charge

One of the nine budget bills on the desks of New York State legislators (only seven actually having been printed in time to be passed by the deadline of March 31) is the Education, Labor and Family Assistance Article VII Bill and Revenue Bill [large, and not very interesting, PDF file]. Like the other eight, it was negotiated entirely in secret amongst the three Democrats in a room. This is the section which contains the racing law, and unaltered is the section which prohibits slots at the "racetracks of the non-profit association known as Belmont Park racetrack and the Saratoga thoroughbred racetrack."

As you may recall, there was a time not long ago when it was thought that Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver would use slots at Belmont, which he staunchly opposes, as a bargaining chip to obtain something like the "millionaires" tax agreed to by the three leaders, and which the governor had opposed. Now however, it's been widely reported from Albany that Silver is the one calling the shots given Governor Paterson's continued slide in the polls, and Senate Majority Leader Malcom Smith's tenuous hold on his 32-30 majority which includes indicted Senator Hiram Monsaratte (whose explanation of how his girlfriend came to be accidentally slashed by a broken glass reminds me of this classic SNL skit, and boy I wish I could find that one on You Tube!)

So Silver got his tax (subject to approval on the Senate floor), making only minor concessions, and clearly sounding, at least from Nicholas Confessore's account in the Times, like a man comfortably in charge.

However, in a concession to Senate Democrats, Mr. Silver agreed to allow the new taxes to be phased out after three years, rather than the five years he had originally advocated — a time period that would have created enormous political pressure to maintain the increase indefinitely. In a concession to Mr. Paterson, who favored a simpler structure, the three-bracket rate favored by Mr. Silver was reduced to two. [NY Times]

So I don't know how much we'll be hearing about Belmont in the short-term, especially once the Aqueduct selection fiasco resumes after the budget is finalized.

- Certainly not surprised upon my return from vacation to see that Democrat Scott Murphy leads the Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco in the latest Siena poll regarding Tuesday's special House election in the 20th CD to replace Senator Gillibrand. Tedisco once led the then-unknown businessman by 12 points, but he has frittered that away with his tacky negative campaign ads and his ridiculous, and clearly failed, attempt to portray Murphy's stated support for the federal stimulus bill as an endorsement of the AIG bonuses. The Democrats are sending in the big guns - a fundraising appeal and a GOTV flyer went out in President Obama's name, and Senator Gillibrand, enormously popular in the region, accompanied Murphy on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Republicans are using Pat Boone.

The poll shows that voters have been turned off by the negative ads by both candidates, but particularly those by Tedisco. "Only 14 percent of those who have seen Tedisco’s commercials are more likely to support him, while 37 percent say the ads make them less likely to support Tedisco (12-28 percent two weeks ago)." Nonetheless, despite those findings, the National Republican Campaign Committee has elected to send in its old standby. That's right, Osama bin Laden himself. Seems that Murphy stated his opposition to the death penalty, even in the case of terrorists, so the obviously desperate GOP rolled out this ad. I think it's fair to say that mostly all of us, Democrats and Republicans not named Rush Limbaugh or Dick Cheney alike, are sick of this crap. Maybe, and hopefully, this ad will actually seal Tedisco's fate. As a commenter on the Times Union's Capital Confidential blog wrote: The NRCC has insisted on putting the nails in Tedisco’s political coffin. I’m expecting a last minute visit from Sarah Palin!

On Vacation

Left at the Gate is closed for vacation until around March 28th or 29th or so. Check out the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance home page for the latest news and opinion, and a great deal on Formulator.

Thanks LATG

Alan is away, but his co-author (the guy that keeps his standings up to date and finds a Ranger picture every now and then) is still here. And, I thought it would be fun to have a little sign-in book for Left at the Gate so he can come back to so warm wishes. It's gonna be hard to come back and get reconnected to the world.

Alan is one of the original members of the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance, and at one point he was writing two blogs (the other about the Rangers), but didn't have the words to keep both running I guess, plus the blue shirts haven't really helped his cause.

His first post was 1/6/2005 and since then he has written 3,558 more. Someone better at math than me can figure how many a day that was. He has made many in the industry worry with certain words and opinions, and he has made more in the industry happy w/ even handed treatment and opinion.

Drop a note, and I'll try and get around to approving them quick as I can.

Thanks Alan. Oh and sorry for changing your blog roll picture, figured I can't be all well wishes ;-P

Derby Top Ten

This is the LATG Derby Top Ten of horses, people, and things that I think will be in the news on or around Kentucky Derby day:

1) Pioneeerof the Nile received mixed reviews at best for his San Felipe, but I'm looking at the brighter side and really believe that the Beyer is irrelevant in this case. Baffert promises to have him cranked up for the Santa Anita Derby, which is shaping up as a battle for supremacy in the west and a definitive test for this son of Empire Maker.

2) If you rank horses strictly on the basis of their performance in preps, Friesan Fire has to be #1 hands down in my opinion. But it sounds as if Larry Jones might be contracting a case of Denis the Cork Syndrome, staring too much at the sheets. Jones' concern is if the colt improves too much in a prep race, he might regress for the Derby.

Jones will base his decision on a prep for Friesan Fire on whether it would help the colt's chances to win the Kentucky Derby. If Friesan Fire doesn't have another prep, he'll go into the Derby off a seven-week break. Three years ago, Barbaro became the first horse since Needles in 1956 to win the Kentucky Derby off a five-week layoff.

Jones knows he'll hear skeptics who'll bring up such tidbits. "We went six weeks with Hard Spun," Jones said. "They said we couldn't do that." [Times Picayune]

Yeah, but didn't Hard Spun lose?

3) Governor David Paterson signs a bill,
the only one to come out of the legislative session, increasing the takeout at NYRA tracks to 90% because Charlie Hayward looks too much like AIG CEO Edward Liddy. Separately, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, asserting that NYRA too was bailed out by taxpayer money, releases the names of 13 NYRA employees who received a 2009 calendar for Christmas.

4) Still think that Patena, and not Stardom Bound, is the horse that Michael Iavarone thinks is his best Derby hope? Does anyone doubt that it was he who made the offer to buy Rebel winner Win Willy?

5) Andy Beyer concedes that his traditional figures for synthetic surfaces are useless to compare to dirt races, and introduces his new Fake Beyers. Par times on synthetic tracks will be devised artificially using algorithms devised by HANA, mixed in with some mathematical calculations by the New York Senate Democrats, and shaken well by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

6) It's not only U.S. bettors who favor Dunkirk in the futures pools.

European layers William Hill have reported strong interest in the Todd Pletcher trained Dunkirk for the Kentucky Derby. The bookmakers were offering odds of 14-1 about the unbeaten three year old winning the first leg of the triple crown, but the money they saw on Thursday has forced the firm to cut him to 11-1 clear favourite for the race. [Oddspreview]

I've read a lot of talk, and suppose I've said so myself, that this is a superior three-year old crop to last year. But if that's the case, how can a horse with two lifetime starts and zero stakes earnings be the favorite individual entry at 7-1 (US)!?

7) The Pamplemousse worked five furlongs in 59.80 on Wednesday. Trainer Julio Canani was very happy and very pleased. "I'm very happy. He was just breezing. I'm very pleased." Yeah, as I said. Those who like this horse really like this horse, and his 103 Fake Beyer is 11 points higher than the top pick ran last time.

8) Once considered a precocious up-and-comer, Bobby Jindal, still reeling from his widely-panned speech in response to President Obama's State of the Union address, resigns in humiliation as Governor of Louisiana. But when he finds that he's ineligible for unemployment because of the stimulus money he refused to accept as Governor, he travels to Alaska via magnetic levitation and takes a job monitoring volcanos. (I know, no racing content but I couldn't resist.)

9) I Want Revenge is sticking around for the Wood. Want to see a stiffer test than his easy trip stalking an unproven NY-bred on his way to a figure that seems inflated. But I'm not seeing the Wood definitely being on the schedule for anyone other than some Pletcher horse and Imperial Council, who could be the underlay of the year in that race. The Wood is considered a backup for Quality Road, which would at least create a matchup of the horses with the gaudy 113 figs.

10) While the rest of the racing world parties away on Kentucky Derby Eve, NTRA CEO Alex Waldrop is seen entering the Southeast Christian Church. Waldrop is overheard wailing: "Please Lord, PLEASE don't let anyone get hurt!" He shows up at the track the next day wearing a clove of garlics and bearing horseshoes, shark teeth, and a voodoo doll with a striking likeness to NY Times columnist William C. Rhoden.

11) Thanks as always for reading - the Head Chef and I are off on vacation and leaving the lappy, as I saw it referred to the other day, at home. Check out the home page of the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance for handy links to bloggers big and small (as well as to a great deal on Formulator), and I'll see you in a week or so.

Aqueduct First

Nice effort by King Mobay, who gave it his all but couldn't hold off 1-2 Stealth Missile, one of three winners for Contessa at the Big A on Thursday. And that's about all I have say about the card. Racing on the inner track this winter has gotten as old as this. I thought the winter meeting was pretty OK, but enough is enough. Gimme a seven furlong race, please!

Of course, we'll likely see inner track racing throughout March every year until NYRA is able to fix the main track, which needs a new base. And that won't happen until and if the slots start running. No developments of course as the governor and the legislature Sheldon Silver and Malcolm Smith concentrate on not getting anything done about the budget behind closed doors.

The Queens Chronicle reports that some in the community around Aqueduct are getting nervous about the talk of slots at Belmont; area officials want to see the track in Queens upgraded first.

“I believe there could be gaming at both [racetracks] if both are vastly different,” said state Senator Joe Addabbo Jr. (D-Howard Beach). “But to some extent, revenue will be lost from either if they’re both gaming sites. One has to exist first before they can both coexist. ... Let Aqueduct thrive first.”
.....
State Assemblywoman Audrey Pheffer (D-Ozone Park), who has been pushing for the Aqueduct renovations, said there’s no need to get paranoid about the video lottery issue. In order for a racino to be opened at Belmont, the Assembly would have to pass a law allowing VLTs there, and Pheffer said that isn’t likely to happen. [Queens Chronicle]

I certainly agree that slots at Belmont [first] would doom our beloved track in Ozone Park. I've always argued that a racino location at Belmont makes more sense in a lot of ways. And in the event that, in what I agree with Ms. Pheffer is a highly unlikely scenario, Belmont would get built first, the Long Island Railroad would start ferrying patrons from Manhattan, and it would become plainly clear that there would be no need for a second racino, in Queens. And this reader would turn out to be right.

Back in Albany, the two Republican minority leaders walked out of the so-called leaders meeting on Thursday complaining that they're being left out of the talks amongst the three Democrats. However, Assembly Minority Leader Jim Tedisco has been quite busy with his faltering campaign to replace Kirsten Gillibrand in the 20th CD (and boy do I wish I had some time to write more about that). And the Senate Republicans have voted as a bloc, as Republicans seem to do these days, completely stymieing Senate Majority Leader Malcolm Smith, who doesn't really have the majority that the Democrats' 32-30 numerical edge indicates he does.

I find it hard to believe that there is not a single Republican Senator who could find it in his or her heart to repeal the Rockefeller drug laws or spare MTA commuters from the doomsday plan. Skelos remarked that his conference is unified in their opposition to the MTA plan. Yet Skelos himself represents constituents in Nassau County who would see their already expensive commuting costs soar by over 20% if nothing is done. And I'd think that relatively few of them would be affected by tolls on the East and Harlem River bridges. The Republican minority is in a position to extract significant concessions in return for their cooperation on issues favored by a majority of the electorate, and on which they came out on the wrong end on Election Day. Instead they're playing political games. And meanwhile, Governor Paterson and Smith show little in the way of leadership, unable to deliver the "majority" they worked so hard to achieve.

Tables Turned

Here's a case of the shoe on the other foot - NYRA is on the creditors committee for the Magna bankruptcy. Not too long ago, Magna was an investor in Empire Racing, and on track to control, along with Churchill Downs, the precious simulcasting rights to New York races had Empire won the franchise. Now Magna owes over $1 million to an entity which recently emerged from bankruptcy itself.

MI Developments said that it intends to bid for the Magna properties that it hasn't already agreed to buy.

Dennis Mills, a former chief executive of Magna and the current chief executive of MI Developments, said that MI Developments had its eye on Magna properties "with a huge real estate upside" if those properties go to auction. Magna, which filed for bankruptcy last Thursday, asked a bankruptcy court to approve a plan to offer Santa Anita Park, Laurel Park, Pimlico Racecourse, and other properties at auction in August through a motion filed on Tuesday. [Daily Racing Form]

Having already agreed to purchase Gulfstream, Golden Gate, Lone Star, Xpress Bet, and AmTote, Frank Stronach, the controlling shareholder of MI Developments, would effectively retain control of his crumbling empire. Other companies are free to bid for the properties as well. And while Mills also told the Form's Matt Hegarty that he didn't know if MI Developments "had assigned specific valuations to the properties within the bundle," (I thought he was the CEO!), Steve Zorn reports on his Business of Racing blog that Magna, in a filing with the SEC, wrote down the value of its properties by $136 million. So the bundle is worth even less than it was before.

Golden Gate is one track which is surely slated for closure and development should MID Developments take control.

"If MID acquires the Golden Gate Fields property, it intends to immediately commence seeking all required approvals to develop the property for commercial real estate uses," MI stated in regulatory documents it filed March 6.

"Racing at Golden Gate Fields would cease prior to commencement of construction on the rezoned property," MI stated in the government documents. [Mercury News]

Such a shutdown would likely take several years according to the article, and the track's GM Robert Hartman protests that the track is profitable and "very important to the city." But at least one local politician disagrees.

"Racing revenues used to be 25 percent of our general fund," Albany City Councilman Robert Lieber said. "Now it's about 2 percent."

Lieber said he'd like to see the 154-acre site transformed into at least 60 percent open space and no more than 40 percent commercial development.

"A racetrack is a poor use for one of the best pieces of land that exists in the Bay Area," Lieber said. "I don't see horse racing as being viable in Northern California at this point. But we would like to see racing continue there for a while."