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Friday, February 25, 2005

Notes: Feb 25

- Brad Free of the Form writes today (subscription only column) that Bandini, Golden Shine, and Don’t Get Mad are all likely to be overbet off their last races, and that they all very well may lose.

The mere fact that a horse finishes fast in one race does not mean it will finish fast in a subsequent race, particularly when faced with a different pace scenario. Bandini, Don't Get Mad, and Golden Shine all ran well and appeared to finish fast. They were supposed to, because none did much serious running early.
When the pace quickens at upper class levels, seemingly good horses unravel. While it is possible Bandini, Don't Get Mad, and Golden Shine may reproduce top form when they chase faster fractions against tougher company, the expectation is unreasonable. Handicappers who appreciate the subtleties of pace might anticipate the exact opposite - for all three to regress when they chase real fractions. Depending on how low their odds, they may create a wonderful opportunity to "bet against."[Daily Racing Form]
OK, well Bandini and Golden Shine set or pressed slow paces so that makes sense. But Don’t Get Mad closed far from pretty far back and did so covering the last 1/8th in a quick 11 1/5. I thought that was supposed to be a good thing, but Free is making the point that if the pace up front was slow, then in back it was glacial, and so Don’t Get Mad had plenty of juice left for the stretch. That makes sense, though it’s not the way one generally approaches evaluating a closer’s race, or is it? I usually figure that a slow pace compromises a closer’s ability to close, and a fast pace helps it, period. Why does this always have to get so complicated??

- Sweet Catomine a possibility to ship out for sunny Florida and go against the boys in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream if, as expected, rain returns to Southern California next week.
[Trainer Julio] Canani was literally speechless when he attempted to describe how Sweet Catomine was doing. After fumbling with his words, he finally got two of them out: "Oh, boy."[Bloodhorse]

- Afleet Alex also got a workout in at Oaklawn today. He galloped out seven furlongs in 1:26.40 and a mile in 1:40.80. [Thoroughbred Times]

1 Comment:

Anonymous said...

hey ckck94-
interesting question you raise re. don't get mad -- just as you suggested, i've always figured that a closer is at a disadvantage with a slow pace, mainly because the front-end horse is left with enough in the tank to hold off the late-runner -- in such a situation, it's always better to get the 1st jump. but free's point is worth following up on to the extent that if a closer isn't at least able to stay in some kind of contention when the pace starts picking up (as it surely will in the next 2 months), then that closer won't be a factor at crunch time. toward that end, one of the things i keep an eye on are the turn times -- as an indicator of a horse's ability to make a big move to contention. if don't get mad had merely made a decent late move but struggled to pass the front-runners, i wouldn't have taken notice -- it was the way he seemed to blow past everyone through the wire that visually impressed me. let's watch where he goes from here -- as a test case for the free-hypothesis.
11th hour