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Monday, December 25, 2006

Sir Beaufort

- I like Kip Deville in the Sir Beaufort at Santa Anita on Wednesday. In Summation, the 7-2 morning line favorite in the 14 horse field, has been putting up some big Beyers on the turf, but stretching out to a mile here, he's an automatic bet-against should he really be favored or even amongst the choices.

Kip Deville seems like a different horse than the one that ran off to a 15 length lead in the Colonial Turf Cup only to be run down by Showing Up. Two races back, running at this mile distance in the Bryan Station Stakes, this son of the Oklahoma-based sire Kipling rated comfortably in second through a first half of 48.27 before taking over in the stretch. His final three splits were 24.2, 23.4, 22.3, as he actually accelerated throughout the last six furlongs. That was a strong race; while not technically a key race because none of the participants have come back to win, two have run second, one third by a neck, and one 4th, all in stakes races. You can excuse his last race, the 6th place finish to Showing Up in the G1 Hollywood Derby. He cuts back to a mile, and will leave from the 3 post in the overflow field with several of the main contenders, including and especially Get Funky breaking from the 14, stuck out on the outside.

- Tiago is a two-year old making a late season debut for John Sherriffs. By Pleasant Tap out of the Stop the Music mare Set Them Free, the colt is a half-brother to Derby winner Giacomo.


Anonymous said...

Nice call on Kip Deville!

As for the Malibu, nice picks there Mister Ed. Two outta three ain't bad. I absolutely hated Spring at Last. As for Latent Heat, i am absolutely LIVID with Frankel right now. First off, i bet Latent Heat to beat Midnight Lute (and everybody else) in that Keeneland race. Now Frankel says that Latent Heat was sick that day, and shouldn't have run. Thanks for the update, Bobby. About 3 months too late. Apparently, it's okay to make excuses after your horse flames out, but it's not okay to inform the betting public (namely guys like me) who are backing your horse at the window with hard-earned money under the assumption that the horse is in good health. Going further, i backed Latent Heat to win the Breeders Cup Sprint this year. So then Frankel holds him out of the King's Bishop and Vosburgh, so he can run him @ Keeneland when he's sick. Are you freaking kidding me??? I did expect Latent Heat to run well today, and apparently Frankel knew what he was doing when he decided to hold Ramsgate out of the race. I probably should've factored that in a little more strongly. But no way in hell could i have taken 5/1 on Latent Heat today coming off taht flame-job @ Keeneland. I thought Midnight Lute was the most likely winner here, and i only gave HIM about a 7/2 chance of winning the race. I was hoping for 5/1 or better, and was pretty excited when i saw the Racing Form list him @ 10/1, with none of their handicapers picking him in the Top 3. I knew i was in trouble though when i saw that 4/1 morning line, and thank goodness he did get overbet because i ended up saving some money when he ran 3rd.

Incidentally, i went down to the Wynn today hoping to find a matchup pitting Midnight Lute against Brother Derek. They weren't offering any matchups at all, but while i was there i noticed a sheet for the 2007 Breeders Cup Classic. Naturally, i immediately checked the odds on Discreet Cat. Are you ready for this? 4/1. With the race still 10 months away.

Anonymous said...

Alan, nice shouts on KD and SAL. . .I wish I'd've listened re KD as I ended up getting hammered in that race when one of my partners found a shocking price on Porto Santo (5-1) in the UK. . .fortunately we made it all back and more taking on Brother Derek in the big one.

I thought BD ran really well and had an amazing amount of real trouble. I counted 4 checks and about an eighth of a mile idle. I don't think he'd've won anyway but it would have been a lot closer and he was completely ill suited to the conditions of the race. The DRF write up didn't mention the trouble but the chart caller naled it. It'll be interesting to see if this turns into ne of those BAD TRIPS (TM) that every shmoe notices to the point where the horse becomes a bet against next time or if this is actually an under the radar trip and I bet on BD next time (marking the first time I EVER bet on him).

Oh, and Alan, I have a little holiday gift for you from the boys for your help on the BC paper. We should meet up soon!

BTW, who are these guys skating in blue and orange and what have they done with the Islanders?