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Thursday, November 13, 2008

Discreet Notes - Nov 13

- You may have noticed that my buddy DiscreetCat got knocked down a notch over on the right sidebar, deferring to new sponsor NYRA. Sorry about that, Cat. But thanks much to the New York Racing Association for its support. As you may know if you live in New York state, NYRA's online/phone/mobile wagering platform has managed to stay above all the squabbling going on in the ADW world, and accepts wagers from Hollywood Park, as well as from all the Magna and Churchill tracks. You can fund your account electronically from your bank with no transaction fees. Whatsmore, wagers placed over the system are treated as on-track bets, and therefore is the way to go to best support racing and the horsemen in the state.

And here's a little equal time for our distinguished, and displaced, West Coast handicapper:

Hollywood - Race 7

#2 Lupita'sluckyangel (10/1 ml)

Comes off a sharp win over Mud Sweat N Tears, who flattered that effort by returning to win her next start. Throw out the sprint race where she got cooked early vs. the stakes horse Quisiana while turning back from slower route fractions, and this filly is coming off two straight wins. Also of note is that both those wins came while stalking a moderate pace from close-up, which should be the situation again today as she figures to be laying second behind frontrunner Spinning Yarns, who clearly holds a pace advantage, but has also had some trouble finishing (meaning she'll be looking to set some soft fractions). Going a bit further, the last time Lupita'sluckyangel ran over this course, she ran a pretty nice race vs. the stakes horse Ransom Captive despite breaking from the 11-hole in race that started right on the turn. No reason to think she won't run well again today, and position-wise i think she'll be sitting in the catbird seat. Lots to like.
A busy next few days coming up for the Kasey K Racing Stable. King Mobay is slated to go on Saturday, and the rainy forecast certainly doesn't hurt his chances. Joaquin Memphis is a possibility to make his Kasey K debut on Sunday; the racing secretary was trying to round him up for a race that didn't fill for Saturday, but it's being brought back for Sunday, so we'll see. Rap Tale is confirmed for that day in the 4th at Philly Park; a second level allowance with six opponents and a whopping $48,000 purse. And Kasey K returnee Mr. W.B., apparently no worse for the wear from a few weeks in the Scott Lake barn, will be entered at Philly Park on Tuesday.

- In brazen defiance of the court ruling which declared that its table games in Florida are illegal, the Seminole tribe has opened blackjack and other card games at its Hard Rock Cafe in Tampa.
By 10:30 a.m., all of the tables had players, despite the fact that the casino did not advertise the additions.
"We look forward to working with all involved parties to resolve this issue," said Jim Allen, chief executive of gaming operations for the Seminole Tribe. [Tampa Bay Online]
Doesn't seem as if the tribe's actions are as accommodating as this gentleman indicates, especially considering that the Tampa establishment has more card tables than at their Hard Rock Cafe in Hollywood.


Anonymous said...

I just posted my site's current record on a couple of sites yesterday, might as well do it here also:

194 for 726 (26.7%)

$15.65 mutuels ($8.07 avg)

DiscreetPicks has been open for a little over a year now. And incidentally, i'm not just a West Coast handicapper (though the vast majority of my plays do come from there). Here's my record from Saratoga this year:

10 for 29 (34%)

$72.70 mutuels ($7.27 avg)

Not a ton of plays, as you can see, but i try to emphasize quality over quantity.

Anonymous said...

Sorry, the total mutuels should've read $1565.30, rather than $15.65. That would've been a VERY bad year, LOL.

Anonymous said...

placing ads on your site to make a profit--sounds, err like a republican no?-what would your leader Obama say--shouldn't you be taxed so that the poor can eat off your redistributed wealth?

steve in nc said...

Jack, you blew it by noticing that neither Alan, nor Obama is socialist. I'm not so sure Joe was really a plumber either.

Had you wanted to tweak Alan, you could accuse him of having been soft on NYRA as tit for tat for the ad. But taking NYRA money to help ease through NYRA's agenda would be, um, the GOP model of how to run a Congress. (Alan, couldn't you get NYRA to remodel your house? Well, thinking about Aqueduct's interior, never mind.)

Turning to racing. Today brought an occurance of something I've always noticed at NYRA tracks. When there is a real bias (as opposed to the frequent ones people imagine based on a three-race sample), the last race often defies the pattern.

Today, all the winners came wide, even during the early races before the track got really soaked, when speed was holding up better. Then, the last race, of course, speed on the rail.

When it is all speed all day, often the last race brings a closer. Is it that the jocks finally overreact to the bias and let someone willing to defy it have too easy a time? Is it that 8 races is too small a sample and there really is no bias? Or am I dreaming the whole thing up?

Alan Mann said...

Steve - I've always noticed that about the last race. Since I'm not a big track bias guy at all, I might opt for the small sample theory. But also, perhaps in some cases the track can change over the course of a day, especially a rainy one like today.

Also worth pointing out that the chart for the last race notes that the winner was rated on the lead while kept off the inside. So I suppose this was an example of a true bias, as you said.

On the other hand, you're right on about the three-race samples; sometimes just two is required for some to conclude that there's a bias. If it's part of an ongoing trend, that's one thing. But I find that the great majority of race results can be explained by pace and trips, as opposed to any bias.

As far as Jack's comments goes, for one thing, any money I earn from advertising is reportable income that I will surely be paying taxes on. And I think that the "he wants to redistribute wealth' angle was a losing one for Senator McCain. It seemed funny to me, reading the text of his speeches, you'd think he was speaking to millionaires' clubs instead of working class folks in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. I think that some of those people, considering the current financial meltdown on the Republicans' watch, were thinking that a little redistribution of wealth wasn't such a bad idea...a notion supported by Obama's crushing wins in states in which the GOP ticket spent ample time and effort in the closing weeks and days.

Anonymous said...

Alan--I will give you Bush failings on the economic collapse, but if we rake him over the coals, should we not at least give at least a slap on the wrist to the democratic congress in place that oversaw this collapse? Surely some blame must lie with them, no?

Lest you not forget remember Spitzers slogan: Change, from Day One. Hey did I not hear that same word change from someone else recently?

Glad to hear you will be following all laws by reporting your 1099 income from NYRA and paying all taxes. What a good democratic soldier you are.

John said...

Congrats on the NYRA advertising, another first for non-professional bloggers from Left at the Gate.

Don't spend it all at Aqueduct, take the Head Chef out to dinner !