I know everyone's hepped up about Monmouth. But those races - large fields of horses shipping in from a variety of racetracks (including a pretty fair number from New York) - are just too hard for me! Why expend the mental energy when I can handicap races which not only include horses and trainers with whom I'm familiar, but which also don't require nearly as much guesswork as trying to rate horses who've been running in different classes over different surfaces in different jurisdictions. Not that I don't enjoy handicapping a contentious race; but I find these enough of the races here challenging enough. And I also like to cash once in a while. So I'm sticking around close to home.
They'll be wagering on Belmont at NYC OTB too, but the bettors there will have little choice. The NY State Racing and Wagering Board cracked down on OTB's out-of-state simulcasting and ordered all of the out-of-state signals other than Golden Gate pulled after having "only just yesterday" discovered that the individual simulcast contracts with the tracks were not approved. Matt Hegarty reports:
In addition to accusations that New York City OTB did not receive approvals to offer the tracks, the board notified OTB three weeks ago that it would not approve any other simulcast contracts until OTB "assures us that they are able to meet their financial obligations," according to Joe Mahoney, a spokesman for the board. [Daily Racing Form]
The spokesman is referring to the fact that it's the statutory payments due to NYRA on these out-of-state simulcasts which are the ones being "deferred" by NYC OTB. So one might presume that those payments are also behind the Board's sudden discovery that the contracts were not approved.
Whatever its motive, and inadvertently or not, the Racing and Wagering Board, a neutral arbiter, is coming down on NYRA's side here. Presuming that bettors with money burning holes in their pockets are going to bet on Belmont instead, NYRA would at least get the money since they are currently getting paid by OTB for its own product. The percentage difference isn't that great though - NYRA gets 2.69% of bets on its races, as opposed to 1.96% for all non-NYRA races. Every little bit helps, though this surely won't stave off closure if Albany doesn't come through. (And bettors like reader Figless Anon who will go to Belmont to bet on races from Monmouth would further help, as NYRA collects its full on-track cut of over 9% on those wagers.)
- In the 8th at Belmont, Nobody Like Mike (6-1), first-time out for Greg DiPrima, has worked extremely well for his return to the grass, a surface over which he's run twice and done quite well - a third with excuses and a win. DiPrima, 20% off the claim, has had just one winner in 13 starts at the meet; but he's been live with a second and six thirds, and that one winner was also on the grass and with this jockey. Fit (5-2) goes for the sharp Alan Goldberg barn, but I think he doesn't want to go this far.
In the 10th, Mighty Tuff (6-1) - that one winner for DiPrima I mentioned above - had shown improved speed with blinkers added two races back, and then switched to turf, where he proceeded to drop back to 9th. The above-referenced Victor Santiago showed patience saving some ground behind a wall of horses turning for home before he rallied down the center of the track. The chart comment Caught battling pair may give the impression that he ran down tiring horses; but, according to Formulator, he got his last two furlongs in 11 2/5 each, and earned a solid Beyer for this level. Steps up to face winners, but gets Ramon and there's not much here. Eire's Run (3-1) cuts back a bit after a fair effort first off the claim for Linda Rice; note though that he graduated on dirt. Look for that one to be particularly overbet if the other half of the entry (first-time turf Abilio) goes. E.P. Bombay (7-2) ships in from the west coast; may be overbet off a win on synthetic against maiden claimers.
With no tangible progress on getting the money they're due from Albany, NYRA has sent WARN letters to its employees, notifying them of a possible mass layoff in 60 days.
The notices, required under the Workers Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act, provide a two-month advance word to employees possibly affected by layoffs. [Bloodhorse]
That doesn't mean that racing will continue for 60 days; NYRA would suspend operations should its cash balance dip below $5 million. Nobody has denied the idea that that could come after Belmont Stakes day. (And it hasn't been a good week on that front either with the defection of a couple of live contenders.)
Tom Precious' report contains the usual about a deal being worked on, this time to be ready for legislators when they return from their well-earned long weekend on May 24.
“We’re going to have to do something for NYRA," a source involved in the talks said.
“I am outraged that the governor is singling out parks as a bargaining chit, while giving special consideration to NYRA’s financial troubles,” said Robin Dropkin, executive director of New York State Parks & Trails, an advocacy groups.
Well, look, Robin Dropkin and Assemblyman Frank Skartados (D-Milton). As I wrote yesterday, nobody wants to see these parks closed. The New York State park system is a treasure; it's a big part of what makes this state so cool. And everyone, including Governor David Paterson, knows it should be preserved and enhanced, not shrunk.
Let's look at the big picture and reality here, can we? The governor is doing everything he can to close a budget in conjuntion with a legislature that is more interested in their own political fates; it rejects totally reasonable proposals like this one, which could, in its original form, have netted the state some $1 billion a year. The parks, unfortunately, have become part of the game; but for the relatively minimal $6 million in cuts involved, he sure seems to have struck a nerve and gotten his moneys worth. He's doing his job (and when's the last time you read a thing about the domestic violence and Yankees tickets scandals?) I can guarantee you that for that amount of money, it's absolutely going to be restored when the budget is passed, which will probably be at a time when much of this coming summer still lies ahead (right?).
So don't get your underwear in a fucking bundle here. NYRA gets "special consideration," you say? If the parks got the kind of consideration NYRA gets, they'd all have been turned into fucking Costcos long ago.
There's a short article on the Midhudsonnews.com website which shows one of the big obstacles to any solution to NYRA's cash needs which requires the approval of the state legislature.
Governor David Paterson has proposed spending $17 million to preserve New York Racing Association thoroughbred horse racing seasons at Saratoga and Belmont and that has the ire of Assemblyman Frank Skartados (D-Milton).
The governor’s latest plan comes at the same time as he shut down 41 state parks and 14 historic sites across New York, including in the Hudson Valley, to save money during the budget crisis.
Paterson’s priorities are “seriously misplaced,” said the freshman lawmaker. “The fact that he’s willing to spend $17 million for a few weeks of horse racing in two communities while working families are denied access to some of New York’s most treasured attractions is absolutely outrageous.” [Mid-Hudson News Network]
I don't blame the Assemblyman for being upset about the park closures....it sucks, and it affects people all over the state (including at John Boyd Thacher State Park, a personal favorite near Albany). But he's sadly and, given the present circumstances, frighteningly off base, for reasons which I don't have to spell out for many readers. Nobody is "spending $17 million for a few weeks of horse racing." They're trying to, with money to be loaned against a guaranteed revenue stream (and if NYRA never gets a racino and the state therefore never gets the money back it's their own damn fault), sustain an enterprise which employs thousands and which returns many times more in revenue to the state. And to prevent the irreparable damage which will result from a wholesale exodus should racing be suspended for any significant length of time. Somebody needs to educate guys like this, as you can be sure he has many colleagues who are thinking along similarly misinformed lines.
No news at all on Wednesday, and no news is assuredly not good news in this case. In fact, the silence feels rather ominous.
Already you may have read the story in the Saratogian about Gary Contessa shipping part of his stable down to Monmouth.
“I am committed to Monmouth because no one is committed to me.....Todd Pletcher is already taking his best horses to Monmouth. John Velasquez is going to Monmouth. There’s no instability in New Jersey right now."
Ha, no instability in New Jersey? The tracks there had been cowering in fear at the thought of slots at Aqueduct given their inability to overcome the political persuasion of the Atlantic City casinos. This year, with no slots in sight and Pennsylvania just to its west, they cut racing dates from 141 to 50. Yet now, it's stable, compared to New York. Hell, Magna seems stable compared to New York.
And have you seen the entries for opening day at Monmouth? Thirteen races for total purses of $812,000; 148 horses entered. As mentioned above, Johnny V is spending the day there, as is Garrett Gomez.
- In the 5th at Belmont on Thursday, Desert Falcon (12-1) races in a one-turn mile for the first time going back 11 races to March 26 [2009], on which date he won for the third straight time at that same route at Gulfstream Park. Since then, he's been up, down, and recently back up in class, and in performance as well, with a record of 4-0-2 in his last seven races. Cut back from two turns with two sprints in his latest, he affirmed his good form with a five wide rally for a close 4th in a Philly Park allowance, a half length behind Map of the World, a winner in his subsequent effort. Stretch out should serve him extremely well, as should his recent tactical speed in a race with a short field, though with a possibility of a contested pace. Bad Action (9-5) won the G3 Pegasus last November at the Meadowlands, and man, was he on a roll around here last fall. He was then taken out of his game though with a try in the Sunshine Millions on grass, and then a trip to Barbados. Now returns off a brief layoff and tries one turn. Senior's Pride (2-1) is sharp and has the best figs; but this one has also been running in two-turn routes.
Any publicity is good publicity, it is said, and if that's indeed the case, then NYRA, for all it's been in the news lately, might have to set up giant screens in the parking lot to accommodate an overflow crowd there on June 5.
More likely however is that, on a nice day for the Belmont Stakes, they'll have something in the neighborhood of 50,000 or so to see, with a little luck, a field of 10-12 horses and a lively betting race.....or, at least, one with several live contenders with which to try and beat probable favorite Ice Box.
NYRA's communications department is off and running with a press release on Tuesday about the Belmont Stakes festival to be held in nearby Floral Park and Garden City the day before. The Belmont Stakes website is up and active, with four - count 'em - bloggers, including two non-staff members who are being compensated with free admission to the race and coupons for 20% off all non-alcoholic beverages. There are updates on Twitter.....do people still use that? And it looks like NYRA has managed to hire a PR firm for the occasion. I guess if NYC OTB could do it, then they can; hope they get better results for their money.
It must be an eerie atmosphere there as NYRA pulls out the stops to market the race amidst reports of its imminent closure. Governor Paterson gave a reflexive "we have a plan" response to a reporter's question on Tuesday; and while a couple of reporters turned that into a story, Matt Hegarty reported in the Form that, in fact, the talks have yet to produce any specific plan to loan NYRA the money. [DRF] Expressing what likely is wariness generated by the unsuccessful bluff by NYC OTB, Senate Democratic spokesperson Austin Shafran told the Saratogian: “Before any taxpayer money is used, we would like to know how much money NYRA actually has." By the time they get around to doing so, the answer might very well be 'none.'
Here are the past performances for the 2006 Belmont (pdf file), which was the last time that neither the Derby nor Preakness winner was present. That race drew over 61,000. You had the Derby runner-up Bluegrass Cat, as well as the third and fourth place finishers (Steppenwolfer and Jazil). But those runners finished far behind Barbaro and generated so little enthusiasm that the bettors somehow decided to make the 17th place finisher Bob and John the lukewarm 9-2 favorite. Euro shipper Oh So Awesome, Peter Pan winner Sunriver, and West Point's sacrificial lamb High Finance were some other horses of interest.
This year (and here are the pp's for the prospective contenders), Ice Box and First Dude, coming off their bang-up runner-up efforts in the first two legs, by themselves probably make this a more accomplished field. Throw in the Peter Pan Dwyer winner Fly Down (and the tough luck runner up Drosselmeyer), Baffert's Lone Star Derby winning Game On Dude (that's right, two dudes in the same race), the intriguing stretch-runner Setsuko, and the Derby 4th place finisher Make Music For Me, and you have the makings of a decently competitive race with a lot of different ways to go betting-wise. Not to say that they will equal the attendance of 2006. Things are different now with the economy still on shaky ground, and the parking and admission prices far higher. Last year's 52,861 who came to see Mine That Bird but no Rachel Alexandra is probably a better guide.
"NYRA's current cash position will not allow us to make it through the entire Belmont Park race meet." And so, in a press release issued late on Monday afternoon, Charles Hayward and NYRA made official what's been widely presumed ever since Tom Precious reported on the worst case scenario presented to the NYRA board on April 30. That scenario became reality when the proposed $17 million loan to NYRA went by the boards. Basically, NYRA wanted to use money raised by via bonds (from the $250 million issue for the construction of the Aqueduct racino), ostensibly to pay for past and present capital expenditures, for its operating expenses, and the plan therefore did not pass muster with tax and bond counsels.
I'm told of active efforts in the governor's office to come up with an alternate plan; but time is obviously of the essence. Hayward told Jerry Bossert: "This week will be critical.....We will have to put out formal notices and make plans." [NY Daily News]
Well? Here we are, around two and a half weeks before the Belmont Stakes, and now that day is being mentioned as being possibly the last day of racing. Oh, man. How exactly did we get here? A long, twisted story of course, but you could say it started the day in 1971 that the first OTB parlors opened in New York City. I had to laugh when I read NYC OTB Chairman Sandy Frucher saying: "NYRA's fate and our fate seem to be appropriately entwined. " I'm sure that he did not intend the irony and profundity that is obvious to those of us who have followed or in some fashion participated in the sport here over the last four decades.
I continue to maintain that Saratoga will open as scheduled on July 23. There's a lot of money at stake, and there are people involved in the process in Albany who have various political and personal motives to get this, as well as VLT's and OTB, done; maybe a couple of them actually care about racing. But I don't think that anyone can be confident at this very point in time that there will not be an interruption before then. NYRA continues to be a hot political potato, and, in this election year, no legislator wants to be on the wrong side of a negative ad concerning a bailout to a so-called "corrupt" entity, which, some would have us believe, ineptly squandered away the $105 million it received with its 2008 franchise award. I would imagine that by now, Comptroller Tom DiNapoli is sitting on some information that he's learned from his investigation of that matter which could enlighten some of his former colleagues in the legislature as to how financially fruitless NYRA's situation is. However, facing a tough election challenge in November, I'm sure he'll release his findings at a time and in a context which serves him best.
A senior aide to the governor said it would be unpalatable to bail out NYRA, and asked how the administration can send money to a thoroughbred industry that caters to wealthy horse owners while closing parks and reducing aid to schools and hospitals.
Of course, you and I know that those "wealthy horse owners" can pick up and send their horses elsewhere, and that it's the thousands of less privileged folks who get up before dawn and work for a living who would be joining others on the unemployment lines. And that those owners who have the means to ship out don't have to go very far this spring and summer to find purses which are far richer than what they've been running for here. They might even get comfortable and not come back if and when racing resumes.
We all know how dire the budget situation is with the $9.2 billion deficit that lawmakers don't seem even close to solving with the legally-required balanced budget now seven weeks overdue. But the state does have certain obligations; and just as the governor is somehow and reluctantly finding the money to include contractual raises for union workers in his latest emergency budget extender, the state must find a way to meet its written obligations to fund NYRA in the wake of its shocking incompetence in naming a racino operator for Aqueduct. Of course, the courts had to step in to compel Paterson to not only include the raises but to cancel his threatened furloughs, and perhaps the racing industry will be forced to go that route as well.
We were talking here in the comments section about the last second observation by Donna Brothers-Barton Barton-Brothers on NBC that Super Saver had lost weight since the Derby (and not to mention that she also presaged Dublin's wayward journey towards the grandstand after the start)....and the fact that the telecast was filled with far less useful information such as the repeated references to the jockey change on Lookin At Lucky (and not to mention an unnecessary post-mortem to Pletcher's Derby streak that no longer was!). The horses are individually scrutinized so closely before the Derby that any slight misstep is widely reported; not so before the Preakness.
Of course, Ms. Barton-Brother's observation was just one person's opinion, and you'd think someone in the racing press would have put the question to Pletcher by now. In any event, the horse ran like crap. To me, the idea that he was worn out by some kind of grueling campaign and now needs to rest up for a summer campaign is ridiculous. He'd only run three times this year prior to Saturday, and, as far as grueling races go, Super Saver's Derby was as un-grueling as one could expect under the circumstances. He just wasn't very good, was he? I've read some criticism of Borel's ride, that he was pressing too close to a fast pace; and I guess that's a reasonable point. But the pace, while honest, was hardly suicidal, and I think the horse was pretty much where he should have been. And not that it really mattered anyway, he was bad, that's all.
For all of that talk about Baffert replacing Garrett Gomez with Martin Garcia, honestly at the time I thought he moved too soon and that Lookin At Lucky was gonna get caught. Not sure if his final three and half furlongs in 43.81 (the chart in Formulator only breaks down the final fractions as much as that) is good or bad; but I suspect he was lucky in this case that there just wasn't much behind him.
Except for First Dude of course. I saw the overhead replay on Sunday, and I thought it really highlighted just how amazingly well he ran and how game he was; how he dug in after setting those honest fractions against his far more experienced and accomplished rival, even appearing to fight back and put his nose in front after first being passed. Dale Romans was being interviewed about Paddy O'Prado before the race, but became animated when asked about First Dude, saying that he'd trained as well as any horse in his barn.
First Dude is a son of Stephen Got Even out of a Smart Strike mare, and is bit unusually bred for these times in that he's a complete outcross through five generations. He has a four-year old half-sister, Via Veneto, who currently campaigns for Baffert, and has earned over $80,000 on a record of 9-2-2-1, though in races only up to 6 1/2 furlongs. And yup, he's headed for the Belmont, along with Ice Box. And who knows who else. Not the Derby or Preakness winner. NYRA is going to have its work cut out for it this year....like they have nothing else to worry about.
Sorry for the sparse posting this week, but I'm just not too hepped up over this Preakness. The Derby was lackluster to begin with, and its running left us with one underwhelming winner and a whole bunch of excuses, whether trip or track condition-related. The runner-up, who many feel was the best horse in the race (others might point to the favorable pace scenario which helped set up his late run), is waiting for the Belmont (and man, will he ever be overbet there). And the newcomers just do not impress. Caracortado, arguably the classiest of the group as the only graded stakes winner, has only raced once on dirt, and that in a 40K maiden claimer in his debut at Fairplex last year.
I devoted some energy here to disparaging the Derby winner's effort, noting his trouble-free trip and the very slow final half of the race. Pace fig impresario Randy Moss noted in his blog last week that Super Saver is tied with Alysheba for 5th for what he calls the "slowest stretch run" going back 24 Derbys to 1987. (Of course, Alysheba clipped heels and almost went down at the top of the stretch.)
And Andy Beyer cites Super Saver's perfect trip in once again leaving him out of his top three selections.
I feel obligated to take a position against him, and plenty of serious handicappers will surely think the same way, for it almost always is a good strategy to play against a favorite who benefited from a perfect trip in his previous start. [DRF]
Perhaps because I don't qualify as a "serious handicapper," I'm going to think a different way in this case. While I generally agree with the principle that Beyer states, I think this is a case where one can turn that logic completely around. For a colt who clearly seems to be on an upswing, the Derby was a relatively easy race which should leave him fresh, fit, and ready to continue to progress to another career best race despite the short two week turnaround. You don't need Trakus in this case to know that he took the shortest route of any of the 20 horse field, and experienced no traffic nor trauma that could effect him physically or mentally here. Whatsmore, you gotta love the versatility and tractability he showed with the way that he, and jockey Borel, have changed tactics over their last two races; from speedball, to stalker, to a horse who comfortably took back several lengths off the hot pace.
While the connections of some of these may be concerned about a slow pace, Pletcher's colt seems adaptable to any scenario, and it wouldn't be surprising in this case to see him closely pressing whoever default to the front. As far as his slow come-home time at Churchill, one could at least partially chalk that up to the conditions. Seems that some are assuming that the sloppy conditions helped his cause, but a look at his past performances reveals no particular preference either way. And while the mile and a quarter distance may very well have been the real culprit, remember that he won't quite have to run that far this time. I expect that he'll be in front turning for home, and who in this group is going to catch him?
Well, a lot of people apparently think that Lookin At Lucky will, which could make the Derby winner a decent value wager in the win pool. He still brings the most accomplished resume, and he certainly had valid excuses for his sixth place finish at Louisville. I agree that one can make a very strong case for him here with the assumption that things are due to fall his way with a better post and a smaller field. But personally, I'm just not feeling it. Call it a gut feeling or whatever, I just don't like him here. For a horse who was so accomplished as a juvenile, bottom line is that he just has not stepped up with the kind of improvement one would like to see at three. His one win came in a Rebel from which little good has emerged; none of the runners have seen the winner's circle since. And while one can attribute his two subsequent defeats to bad luck, another way of looking at it is that he just has not progressed to the point where he has the ability, agility or mental toughness to overcome his troubles. Maybe that's a stretch, but as undervalued as I think he will be, seems an easy and logical stance to take.
Looking at some of the others:
Aikenite and Pleasant Prince rallied from far back for the second and third spots in the Derby Trial, but what does that one turn mile race have to do with this? Besides, if you think the Derby fell apart, take a look at the splits for that race: first have in 45 1/5, second in 50 4/5. Pleasant Prince might take some money off that nose loss to Ice Box in the Florida Derby in his pp's, but, as I implied above, I think that colt's Derby is being overrated; and the Gulfstream race is another from which little good has emerged.
Schoolyard Dreams is a little interesting if you take the trainer's word that he was adversely effected by a virus in the Wood. (Why then did he run if he was ill in the first place?) He'd shown some decent improvement and beat Super Saver at Tampa. But as I've mentioned in the past, can't too excited considering he got beat in the Wood by Awesome Act, the latest in my own personal series of desultory Derby wagers. So I'm gonna pass on him. Jackson Bend and Dublin can both be excused for their Derbies (in fact, the sloppy track is a universal excuse); but tough to get excited over this duo given their combined 0-for-8 records at three, not to mention the poor post draw for the latter.
Paddy O'Prado was kind of a "good thing" horse in the Derby, bet down under his 20-1 morning line as he was, and backing it up with his third place finish. He may have relished the mud though given the excellent work he posted the week before. He stayed out of enough trouble to rally for third as the race fell apart....at least that's the way I look at it. As third choice in the morning line, little value to be had for a horse who has still never raced on a fast dirt surface.
Yawanna Twist is a horse who I think could spice up the exotics. He's making just his fifth career start.....which actually might be a good thing as, unlike many of the others, he has yet to fully establish mediocrity. He stepped up seamlessly from NY-breds to graded stakes company with pretty solid efforts in the Gotham and Illinois Derby, and has tactical speed and a good post from which to establish a favorable position. Not flashy pedigree wise as a son of Yonaguska, a sire whose progeny win at an average distance of 6 1/4 furlongs, out of a mare by Oliver's Twist, an obscure son of Horatius who stands in Colorado. He does have Dutrow in his corner though; and if that trainer has been quiet lately, it's because he reportedly donated his ego to be used as a giant containment dome in the latest effort to contain the oil spilling into the gulf. (I told you I'm not that serious.)
It was the Lottery Division which issued the latest Request For Proposals (RFP) for the Big A racino, and it's that agency which will recommend a bidder to Governor Paterson...and it plans to do so by August 3. It's the State's special "highly compressed" 12 week plan, no meals served (not even snack and beverage service).
Of course, even if you accept that they will actually hold to that timeline, VLT revenue which is, at a very minimum and only possible figuring on a temporary facility, some nine months away, seems rather insignificant at this point in time given that NYRA could be just a few weeks away from not having enough cash in the bank (considered to be $5 million) to continue operations. Paul Post reported in the Saratogian on Tuesday morning that the Senate Democrats blocked an attempt by Senator Roy McDonald (Republican from Saratoga) on Monday to attach a bill approving the $17 million loan to the latest budget extender. The Democrats claim that, as an appropriations amendment which has to "age" for three days, it would delay the budget extender and thus cause the shutdown of state government.
They're getting nervous in Saratoga; the city's Chamber of Commerce will join with a host of breeding farms in a lawsuit to force the state to do what it is agreed in writing to do. Who knows, maybe that's what it will come down to in the end; though I suspect that the legislature would step in at the last minute in any event with Saratoga involved. If NYRA is going to run out of money, at least the timing is right; I don't think too many people whose livelihoods aren't at stake would get too worked up about an interruption of racing at Aqueduct. Or even Belmont, after June 5 anyway. It will be after the Belmont Stakes that the countdown will really begin. I don't know if NYRA wants to announce a drop dead date lest it remind wary lawmakers of NYC OTB's ultimately empty threat.
Back to the RFP, this should give you an idea of just how quickly they are hoping to move:
RFP Issued May 11, 2010 First Vendors’ Questions Due – 4:00 pm May 18, 2010 Lottery Responses to First Questions May 25, 2010 Entry Fee Due June 1, 2010 [$1 million, to be refunded to the losers] Mandatory Bidders Conference – 12 noon June 8, 2010 Second Vendors’ Questions Due - 4:00 pm June 15, 2010 Lottery Responses to Second Questions June 22, 2010 Vendor Proposals Due - 4:00 pm June 29, 2010 Apparent Winning Proposal Announced August 3, 2010
That's five weeks between the proposals are due on June 29 and the announcement of the "apparent" winner. Not much time, especially if Lottery employees are being furloughed one day a week. And then, of course, even if they're on time, the winning bidder has to be agreed to by Sheldon Silver and the Senate Democrats (the governor is committed to the Lottery's selection). However, that might not be as bad as it sounds this time around. Silver, after all, would have no reason to oppose a bidder chosen in this fashion given that the Lottery has adopted his requirements of $300 million minimum up front, as well as strict licensing requirements for principles and investors. And given the special attention that the Senate Democrats are getting from the Inspector General in his AEG probe, I'd expect them to be compliant in this particular case (which could be wishful thinking, I know).
And I guess that the accelerated timeline doesn't allow for sharing with the public during the process. The Lottery, in a statement, said: "All bids will be made public once a winner is selected." And here's an interesting little clause I found in the RFP (which you can read and download here):
A Vendor may not issue a news release pertaining to this RFP or the services, evaluation, or project to which it relates without prior written Lottery approval, and then only in accordance with express written instructions from the Lottery.
That kind of attempted control of information seems to be a step backward even from the secrecy of the last round. The only mention of a public hearing is one at which the bidders can make presentations to the local Community Board 10.
Speaking of "apparent winners," what the hell happened to Aqueduct Entertainment Group? After making some noise about a lawsuit, they seem to have made a hasty retreat. Their website is not even functioning. I suppose however that there's nothing preventing them from entering the race again. I'll be interested to see if Penn National is back after the way they stormed off in a huff last time. That company has moved on to bigger and better other things having bought into 50% of Pimlico and Laurel along with Frank and MI Developments. However, that only cost them a reported $50 million, which would not take them out of the game. According to the Wall St Journal:
Penn National's role is mainly to oversee an effort to bring slot machine gambling to Laurel Park
. Even if a move to overturn the state's prior award of a racino license to The Cordish Cos. (rather than Laurel) by referendum succeeds, the company would have to get around state law which prohibits it from operating more than one racino; it was awarded a license to build a racino in Cecil County.
And all of that brings us to the Preakness.....next post...
Seems somehow appropriate that Senators John Sampson and Malcolm Smith finally agreed to submit to the Inspector General's investigation of the selection of AEG to operate the Aqueduct racino on the same day that former Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno was sentenced to two years in prison for depriving the public of his honest services. As you may recall, the trial served as a backdrop for the impasse over the Big A selection, and there was talk here on this site that, given the potentially dire consequences looming for Bruno, it was just unimaginable that the Senate Democratic leadership would do anything with even a hint of appearance of a conflict of interest.
However, incredibly, not only was there a hint on conflict, they might as well have trumpeted it on the front page of the NY Post. From the very first days of AEG's emergence as a bidder right around this time last year, its connections to Malcolm Smith were clear and well-publicized. To me, the reports that the Senate leadership were steadfastly insisting upon this group, which was clearly not the most qualified and experienced for the job, despite the obvious influence, was nothing less than surreal. Even Bruno had some sense of when the line could not be crossed; I don't recall him ever advocating for Empire Racing despite its involvement with Abbruzzese.
And of course, the beat goes on in the state capitol, where Senator Smith faces additional legal problems, and where the legal and ethical cloud surrounding present Senate Majority Leader Pedro Espada is of the magnitude of Eyjafjallajokull.
As for Bruno, I find myself deriving little joy from the thought of him going to jail. Sure, no question that he was a crook who used his position to enrich himself; and, in fact, I think he beat more raps in the case than he probably should have. But I also believe that he was merely a product of the culture in Albany, and that he truly believed what he was saying in his 40 minute speech in the court before his sentencing, when he proclaimed: "In my heart, and in my mind, I did nothing wrong.” Besides, the prior White House administration raised the bar for me when it comes to defining pure evil in politicians; at least Bruno didn't manufacture reasons to start a war. (And do you think we'd be in this situation with NYRA and OTB if he was still one of the three men in a room?)
Whether he actually enters the federal prison system, where out of a total population of 210,159, only 47 are Mr. Bruno’s age or older [NYT] will be determined when the Supreme Court issues its rulings this summer on the constitutionality of the honest services law under which he was prosecuted. The accounts I've read of the arguments in the three cases involved seem to indicate skepticism on the part of the justices. Considering that this court recently opened the floodgates to corporate influence in politics, I guess it would be little surprise if it now takes away a key weapon that prosecutors use to fight and punish the kind of corruption that is bound to proliferate. So it remains to be seen whether or not we see Bruno working the crowds at Saratoga in summers to come.
- Moving further off topic: I've mentioned the website Lala.com a couple of times here, recommending it as the best place to check out new music (you could stream any song in its entirety once) and to purchase albums in MP3 form significantly cheaper than on ITunes (usually $7.49 vs $9.99). I also noted warily that Apple had purchased the site. And now the other shoe has dropped with a thud; Apple is shuttering the site on May 31. Though there's some speculation that Apple will utilize Lala's streaming technology in a so-called "cloud-based" ITunes.com where one could store a music library to access via any computer device as you could do on Lala, some reports say that's far off. So, this sucks. And Apple isn't doing much these days to endear itself to anyone.
Fortunately, there are still cheaper alternatives to purchasing music on ITunes, such as the EMusic subscription service, where you can buy songs for as little as 40 cents (though the subscription model definitely has its own drawbacks). And websites such as NPR.org are streaming new albums in their entirety, at least prior to their release.
Anyway, the beat goes on in the world of indie rock with new releases this past week from the Canadian collectives Broken Social Scene and New Pornographers, and from Brooklyn's The National next week. And we have the 28th album from the venerable The Fall, whose craggy leader Mark E. Smith looks to be aging like fine wine and Calvin Borel.
This is the LATG Preakness Top Ten of horses and people who I think will be in the news on or around Preakness Day:
1) Super Saver, not because I'm not going to look to beat him. But rather because the Derby winner automatically earns this slot in my mind, at least until something starts to go wrong, like bad weather which disrupts his/her workout routine, an unexpectedly sluggish drill, an unexpected challenge from an insurgent Tea Party entry, or, of course, some kind of physical problem. But, for now, Super Saver continues to bask in the glory of his Derby win, taking accolades with his hay, unable to make Letterman due to logistical issues, but reportedly working on a column for Slate. And he went out for a jog on Wednesday, pleasing Todd Pletcher.
"His energy level was very good. His appetite has been very good. He seems to have taken the race really well." [NY Daily News]
I guess he was keeping something in reserve as he ran the last quarter in 26.72.
2) Ice Box - Yeah, I know, he's not running, but I wouldn't be shocked if they change their mind. Nick Zito and Robert LaPenta passing up a chance at a Triple Crown race? And one they could win? In any event, after looking at the past performances of the horses being mentioned as the "new shooters," much of the talk might be about him even if he's not there. I guess Zito is looking at that pedigree, him being out of a dam, Spice Island, by the Belmont winner Tabasco Cat, who won two stakes (including the G2 Long Island Handicap) at a mile and a half, and another (Glens Falls) at 11 furlongs. As I mentioned before the Derby, this horse kind of fell into this deep closer thing in the Florida Derby, and he got the ideal pace setup again in the Derby. OK, maybe a had a wee bit of trouble this time. LaPenta said: "I don't think it had to with just the pace;" certainly he overcame trouble. But pace makes the race as they say, and the Belmont will be a far different one. But I guess I'm getting ahead of myself.
3) Governor Paterson signs legislation authorizing a loan to NYRA but, in a desperate ploy for much needed cash with the budget standoff entering its seventh week, directs it to conduct racing around the clock on Preakness weekend. When the jockeys and horses refuse to continue after the 23rd on Friday, Paterson orders state legislatures and furloughed workers to take their place. With federal agents conducting a pre-dawn raid in hot pursuit, Senate Majority Leader Pedro Espada sweeps Sunday's early early Pick Four.
4) Jess Jackson, who said before the La Troienne that Rachel Alexandra was "85 percent to 90, maybe 95" says that she was actually "only 83.7%. She was 77.3% for the Fair Grounds race, so she's getting better. But we absolutely won't race her again until she's at least 94.3%" When asked if there was even a 3.1% chance that she would eventually meet Zenyatta after all, he replied "only on dirt and only if we think Rachel is at least 11.6% fitter than her."
5) Noble's Promise moved up smoothly and turned for home with the lead in the Derby, so I got a little excitement for my four bucks at 25-1 before he staggered home in 27.82, and I'd be insulting a lot of harness horses by calling that harness horse time. And he still only lost by six lengths! I just don't see how one can get excited about any of these horses coming out of that race. Trainer Ken McPeek wrote in the NY Post:
We passed the 10 horse (Paddy O'Prado) and then he came back to pass us, so maybe we just need to admit Noble's Promise is a miler, but a darned good one. [NY Post]
They were going to send him instead to a mile race in the UK; an interesting prospect given McPeek's own admission of his probable distance limitations, and, as I've mentioned before, the many fine turf horses in his pedigree, including the F&M Turf winner Soaring Softly. But now McPeek says the horse is "possible" for the Preakness.
"..we're concerned about the expense of going over and back, plus the purse on that race was modest compared to the Preakness. We felt like it would be more prestigious to run in the [$1 million] Preakness." [Washington Post]
Yeah, but, uh, y'know, why, what about..., you said..., oh, nevermind.
6) Hurricane Ike looks like the most interesting of the "new shooters" in a race which could certainly use some. The Derby Trial winner has progressed very nicely this year after showing promise at two. The big question is the fact that his only two turn race, at Keeneland, was a disaster. However, he certainly seems to have improved since moving to real dirt. And his breeding - Graeme Hall (Dehere) out of a dam who's out of a mare by Future Storm (Storm Cat) - seems fine, if uninspiring. Looks like an intriguing possibility for a trainer having a big year.
7) Todd Pletcher finally loses his cool when NBC asks to interview him for a feature about his 0 for 4 career record in the Preakness. The Toddster was already having a difficult week having had to fend off reporters' questions about Super Saver's portrayal of him in his column for Slate, in which he called the trainer "priggish," and a "fastidious nerd."
8) Schoolyard Dreams was my bet in the Wood. He might have had a legitimate excuse with Ramon taking him back off the lethargic pace. But the fact that he finished behind Awesome Act sure don't seem too flattering now, does it?
9) Do you think we'll ever see Eskendereya on the racetrack again?
10) Andy Beyer acknowledges that he was the man originally considered a suspect in the attempted car bombing in Times Square on Saturday night after he was videotaped "furtively" looking back up W 45th Street. When Beyer, who failed to include Super Saver amongst his top four picks for the Derby, was asked why he was observed removing his shirt and stuffing it in a bag, he replied "Because I didn't want to lose it twice in one day."
You may have noticed amidst all of the Derby hoopla this past weekend that Tom Precious posted a story on Bloodhorse.com regarding the seriousness of NYRA's cash flow situation. In short, the doomsday scenario that was presented to the NYRA board last week is that the association will run out of cash (considered as such when it has less than $5 million on hand) by late June should the state legislature fail to pass a bill, introduced by Governor Paterson, which would provide NYRA with $17 million, to be provided from the $250 bond issue for the racino construction, and to be repaid to the eventual VLT operator. This scenario also assumes that NYC OTB will suspend or defer payments from non-NYRA races (which totaled some $8.8 million to NYRA in 2009) as Sandy Frucher said it would do when he announced OTB's sudden and miraculous recovery from the brink. OTB was to provide the State Racing and Wagering Board with its latest restructuring plan last Friday.
I got an update from Charles Hayward at Belmont on Derby morning, and he pointed out that NYC OTB pays the out-of-state tracks promptly in 30 days by contract. So it's the in-state tracks that OTB has sucked the life out of all these years which will bear the pain. That's a joke to be sure, but NYRA's current status is no joke at all. Hayward expressed confidence that the bill providing the $17 million loan will indeed pass. But it's certainly not very comforting to know that the fate of the state's thoroughbred racing industry is in the hands of the New York State Legislature.
The DC-37 union representing the rank-and-file workers at OTB, which helped kill the OTB bailout bill when the legislature would not approve severance and pay raises promised by management, has informed the legislature that they will oppose any NYRA bill which doesn't address those issues, even though the bill doesn't directly involve OTB. I guess they figure that any leverage they retain is helpful, though this union doesn't seem to consider the downside to their members in the case of their tactics leading only to stalemate. And while the measure was introduced in the Senate by Sen Eric Adams, it has yet to be taken up by the Assembly. "They are awaiting some tax opinions on exactly how the $17 million could be used by NYRA to be certain that the bill works for NYRA. I think that we will have clarification on that in the next few days," Hayward said.
As I've steadily maintained, I just don't believe that the legislature will allow NYRA to cease operations. In the NY State Racing and Wagering Board's 2008 Annual Report, it was estimated that, should NYRA close, close to $40 million paid annually in tax payments to the state directly from NYRA and from all of the OTBs' handle on its races would cease; that in addition to over $45 million in payments to thoroughbred and harness breeders, and to local governments. Add up the numbers; it just doesn't make sense, even in an institution which doesn't have much, and even if OTB wagering on other races would partially compensate, to allow that kind of money to stop. Plus, Saratoga is looming, and that is very much a bipartisan issue.
And besides, and once again because it bears repeating: the state has a written obligation to provide funding as per Section 2.8 of the Franchise Agreement:
New NYRA and the State agree that, in the event that VLT Operations are not scheduled to commence at Aqueduct on or prior to March 31, 2009, the State and New NYRA shall negotiate in good faith to provide New NYRA with payments necessary to support racing operations and satisfaction of New NYRA operating expenses, including, without limitation, the payment of New NYRA's pension plan obligations, until the commencement of VLT Operations at Aqueduct.
- Well, looks like I was wrong about the TV ratings for the Derby.
Attendance for the Derby was 155,804, according to Churchill, the fifth-largest crowd of all time, while the overnight television rating for a two-hour broadcast of the Derby on NBC rose 1 percent, to the highest figure since 1992, continuing five years of strong growth in the rating figure. [DRF]
First of all, I did not end up using Super Saver on top, for a variety of reasons and even though I did unenthusiastically include him in my top group in my final rundow. As greenmtnpunter noted, he had become the obvious bandwagon horse, and that was even before the guy bet $100,000 to win. If I hadn't already made my bets, that would have been the last straw! But no harm done, had a great day, great BBQ here in our backyard, and I didn't have Ice Box, Paddy O'Prado, nor Make Music For Me anywhere on any of my tickets, so it wouldn't have mattered anyhoo.
Now, let's take a look at some numbers, which I think bear out of a couple of assumptions that most of us made before the race - 1) that the race would fall apart after a fast pace and 2) the field was a mediocre one, at best. The final time of 2:04.45 was the slowest since 1989 (Sunday Silence, 2:05, on a drying-out track), and the second slowest since Tim Tam in 1958.
Nonetheless, Super Saver received a respectable Beyer figure of 104, but as far as I'm concerned, that number means ZERO. There were three other two-turn dirt races run on the day, enough under normal circumstances to provide a sufficient sample. However, the last one before the Derby was run at 12:40 PM, nearly six hours and who knows how many raindrops before Race 11. You might have heard Donna Brothers Barton explaining that the nature of the track was changing from race to race, so one can easily surmise that the track at 6:30 bore little resemblance to that of 12:40. So it seems to me that the Beyer boys did their usual projection magic to make all of the numbers fit neatly into the context of the runners' histories rather than relying on any hard numbers. Super Saver's 104 is a logical progression from his improvement over the year, Ice Box, at 100, makes sense after he (supposedly) improved to 99 in the Florida Derby, Paddy O'Prado, at 100, makes little sense at all, but neither did his odds nor his finishing third as far as I'm concerned. Noble's Promise (95) (and yes, that pedigree sure seemed to catch up to him in the final furlong), Looking At (un)Lucky (94) and Dublin (93) all fit in nicely.
In this race, relying on final times in order to create or project figures can't possibly tell the whole story of what actually occurred. For that, the internal fractions relate what really happened, and it ain't pretty at all. There might not have been the anticipated head-to-head battle on the front end, as Conveyance and Sidney's Candy were a clear and uncontested 1-2. But the leader was moving swiftly through fractions of 22.63, 46.16, and 1:10.58; splits of 22.63, 23.53, and 24.38. From that point on, this race suddenly slowed to a walk. It was another 27.07 seconds before Noble's Promise hit the front at the quarter pole, and a slightly more acceptable 26.80 before the finish; that's a final half of almost 54 seconds after the first one in 46.16. Can anyone tell me that a Derby on a "fast" Polytrack surface could have been any uglier? Even Giacomo's fall-apart Derby was a faster final half than that, at 53 1/5, and by a relatively wide margin.
So Super Saver earned the Toddster's first Derby and his 104 Beyer by running a ground-saving final half of 52.77 seconds, and I wonder how his final quarter (26.55) ranks in Derby history? Giacomo had to be going faster than that considering that he closed a lot of ground (final quarter that day was 26.87). And it's a further indictment of the field that Ice Box was the only one making up any serious ground at the end....and, as fast as it appeared he was going, his final quarter was 26.10. So, if you answer the question of "Which horses were able to get the distance?" with nobody, I don't think you're being inaccurate.
- Awesome Act, who I did use on top, finished 19th with no obvious excuse, yuck!
Trainer Jeremy Noseda said: "Julien said that he was happy round the first bend but that down the backstretch Awesome Act was never really firing.
"It was a very disappointing run," added the trainer. "We thought there was no issue with the sloppy track but perhaps there was." [Racing Post.com]
- Baffert on Lookin At Lucky's Preakness prospects: "I'm going to keep you all in suspense....I'm just going to wait and see how he looks on the track." [Baltimore Sun]
"I quit watching after the first bump," Baffert said. "He was done. I wish Garrett would have pulled him up. But that's horse racing. You have good luck and you have bad luck and I've been lucky to win this race (three times) when other guys had bad luck." [Albany Times-Union]
6:24 - The Head Chef thinks that Conveyance is the cutest horse in the field. And she writes off Backtalk. Homeboykriss has no ass, she observes.
6:20 - >> I'm not sure if the bourbon will cause me to do so more....or [less]. I guess it's less.
5:53 - I kind of hope that Pletcher wins, even though I would probably lose (I have a small win bet on MI). He handles the questions well, as he just did with Battaglia; and I'm really sick of seeing the same interviews every single year.
5:30 - No Mine That Birds or Giacomos today with the longest shot in the field only 35-1. The odds are reflecting this crapshoot for what it is. I think that the best values in the field are Dublin (12-1 ML, 18-1) and Conveyance is I mentioned before, though I don't like him anyway. Mission Impazible seems fair value at 18-1.
5:26 - Seriously, you would think that YUM! Brands would produce a new commercial instead of showing this same tacky crap.
5:19 - I love Jim Cantore, but these reports are kinda useless at this point. Not like the track is going to dry out even if the skies suddenly clear.
5:14 - Gary Stevens paints a bleak picture for Lookin At Lucky breaking from the rail. Hmmm. I'm watching a few minutes delayed on the DVR because the Head Chef came home bearing gifts from the supermarket which will be bearing fruit as the evening goes on. Someone please remind me to catch up on the recording so that I don't forget and get shut out trying to bet at the last minute. Rascal Flatts???
4:57 - I have to say that I haven't really given the track condition a second thought, and didn't change my mind on who I like at all. The fact is that we don't really know if any of these can handle this slop on this day on this track...so to me, it just kind of blends in with all of the other substantial unknowns, including and particularly the question of the distance which none of these have ever run. The only horse who has run at CD in the slop was Paddy O'Prado, and he finished up the track in his debut. So why he's getting bet like this I really can't say.
- I'm home from Belmont here at 4:37, and this is not a live blog, but maybe I'll check in here with a comment or two from time to time. I'm not sure if the bourbon will cause me to do so more....or if this is the first and final entry. There's not anyone actually out there, is there? Hello?
I had a good day at the track, having hit the 4th race triple ($158.20) and exacta ($35.20) at Philadelphia Park (as anyone who I subsequently encountered at the track is well aware).
This Derby tote board is unlike anything I've ever seen; with Lookin at Lucky and Super Saver, each at 8-1, just maybe the biggest overlay and underlay in the race, respectively. Chances are that if you like one of the big morning line longshots, you're unhappy; but if you like one of the two top choices, or Conveyance (12-1 ML, 28-1) you're very excited. Good luck to all if I don't get back to you.
The weather looks absolutely miserable in Louisville, and what a pity for everyone involved, including the poor horses who will have to run in that muck. As for us handicappers, what was already a crap shoot becomes even more incomprehensible.
Could end up regretting writing this....but I'm fairly shocked at all of the enthusiasm for Devil May Care in the Daily Racing Form. Watchmaker and Welsch have her on top; Brad Free second, Crist third. She's third in the consensus box. I just don't see it....off of that one race with a perfect trip in a small field of fillies? Well, we'll see.
Speaking of fillies, oh, boy, too bad about Rachel Alexandra, eh? You never really know how a filly is going to come back a year older after some time off. However, instead of striking while the iron was hot last fall, Jess Jackson elected to ignore the sport which was imploring him to go to the Breeders Cup, instead electing to play his vindictive little game against the forces of evil who forced him to run Curlin on that horrible plastic the year before and send her to the farm for an extended break instead of running in the Classic.
Not that she's done, of course. Her 103 Beyer on Friday was a step forward, and her connections stressed that she will not be retired. Just maybe, she'll get her head fully back into the game and we'll have that big showdown once and for all. However, if you believe that last year's campaign against the boys was too much and took a lot out of her, then maybe I wasn't so dumb last year when I questioned the wisdom of running her back on two weeks rest in the Preakness. And just maybe, despite all of the hoopla at the time, (none of which seems to have had any lasting effect with respect to the sport's popularity today), the sport would have been better off today had Jess Jackson not purchased the filly, and if she had stayed the more conventional course that was planned by her original owners. Rachel Risk/Reward Don't Add Up I wrote before the Preakness. I looked pretty damn dumb afterwards. But maybe not so much now.
OK, here's a relatively quick trip through the 20 horse field. I've already discussed some of these in detail over the last couple of weeks, and will assume that you've been along for the ride (feel free to scan the posts below if you wish). This year's Derby is largely devoid of depth in quality, star power, wider public appeal (haven't had anyone in the office come up and ask me who I like), and, one might argue (at least to a certain extent), talent. Hmmm, sounds like the Republican field for governor.
Well, actually those guys may have more characters than we have in this nondescript bunch.
Nonetheless, it's certainly wide open as a betting race, and looks like a lot of fun. Which is exactly what, and all, it should be as far as I'm concerned. Especially with the weather forecast really starting to suck. Quoting my buddy and fellow socialist steve in nc:
I think the best strategy is to try to remember one's dreams on Friday night, add in some longshots that could hit the board, and swing for the fences with a very small exotic wager and a very large mint julep. Anyone who can get really passionate or confident about one horse here is already dreaming.
The way I see it, with the possible exception of one horse, there's a small enough gap separating enough horses so that the race will likely be largely determined by chance. So I agree with steve, except that I take my bourbon straight.
Lookin At Lucky - This is the one horse who I think one could make a passionate case for given his consistency and very substantial edge in class; despite the bad post. Only knock in my mind is that he has just two races this year, and didn't get to run his best in the second one. Baffert was pissed at Gomez for getting himself in trouble down on the rail; but breaking from the 1 hole here, this colt is going to feel as boxed in as the Senate Republicans on financial reform. However, just the fact that he's dealt with the kind of traffic he'll face is a big plus in my book. Could be it will work to his advantage; actually it will have to if he's going to win. Don't think that 3-1 is fair odds on that proposition, but who knows; with all the bad dishing on the post, maybe he's closer to 5-1. And I certainly wouldn't argue with someone keying him on top with some price horses no matter what his odds, which could still yield some very lucrative results.
Ice Box - This horse might be the second choice given his trainer, last race Beyer, and the way in which he won that Florida Derby, coming from far back as he did. The bettors love stuff like that. And he may not be as far back as people think; he was actually fairly close in his first two route races before breaking poorly in the FOY, and having limited options breaking from an outside post with a short run-up to the turn in a speedy Florida Derby field. I just don't think he's very good though, and have my own doubts about that 99 speed fig, which, by the way, is also an anomaly on the form of Pleasant Prince, who he beat by a nose.
Noble's Promise - I've discussed the distance influence in what seems on the surface like a horse obviously not bred to stay this route. And he's reportedly worked quite well, enough obviously to prompt his sharp trainer Ken McPeek to run him here. I mean, even though it's the Derby, they wouldn't run him unless it in the best interests of the horse. Right? He seems to have been largely counted out, like Gordon Brown. I don't want to lose to him, and will definitely, no matter what I end up doing, have a couple of bucks on him at long odds to win. On Noble's Promise, not on Gordon Brown.
Super Saver - Discussed in the prior post. So you guys think he'll sell to Line of David and/or Conveyance and sit off the lead, eh? Well, taking another look at the Arkansas Derby, while he did break a bit awkwardly, Calvin Borel and his colt both seemed perfectly content sitting a comfortable second, and perhaps that was the intent all along. If that's the case, he should be able to get a pretty damn cozy trip going into the turn. Third race of the form cycle, rave reviews all week by Welsch, nice pedigree, loves the track and has a good effort in the slop. A lot of positives and I'd be all on board except for the way he hung on the money and couldn't get by Line of David. And he wouldn't have even if they'd gone another furlong. I'm back and forth on him, but money prospects at the very least.
Line of David - He ran those last three furlongs at Oaklawn in 38 1/5, and still didn't get caught. One real positive is that it was a nice move forward moving up to stakes company in his first race on dirt. Here's hoping that he won't bounce enough to not run very fast early so he can set the race up for others I like.
Stately Victor - Two wins came on turf and the Keeneland Poly, and I've always considered the latter to be the closest amongst the synthetics to grass. Sure, there's a price at which he's worth a stab, but I'm gonna take a stand on principle and toss.
American Lion - Another one like Line of David who'd shown some speed on the California synthetics, but then moved up in wire-to-wire stakes wins on dirt. (Good sign for Sidney's Candy.) And like the Ark Derby winner, he won despite slowing down considerably at the end, and that won't do here, at this distance, even in a field as compromised as this.
Dean's Kitten - 0 for 1 on dirt. Ken Ramsey had so much confidence in this horse that he desperately ran Pleasant Price back in the Derby Trial.
Make Music For Me - Oh. OK. And the name of the band is what I'll be saying if this horse wins.
Paddy O'Prado - O'Why?
Devil May Care - May be the most overbet horse with no shot in the field.
Conveyance - Baffert's other colt seems nearly guaranteed to be a part of the pace scenario...at least we hope so! Haven't discussed this one too much because I'm figuring he's just a tool to set the race up for many of us bettors, and perhaps for the trainer as well. Some feel he'll make the lead; recent Moss pace figures suggest he'll be hard pressed to clear Line of David. I'm not really taking him seriously; I'm a loser if he's still around after a mile and a quarter; his dosage index (yeah, I still follow that stuff) suggests he won't.
Jackson Bend - One thing we can say for him is that he always gives an honest effort, but so does Governor Paterson. Not blind, but too slow and appears distance challenged with a 6.20 dosage index too.
Mission Impazible - No, not Sarah Palin's answer to the question: What is your favorite all-time TV series....well, maybe....but rather he of the slow but steadily improving numbers that have some Sheets guys all excited. Will be a different story here from his ground saving trip in Louisiana, as even Peter Graves wouldn't be able to find the wood here from post 14. Seems a bit questionable pedigree-wise too. But he was tractable in traffic and determined in the stretch of that last effort, eligible to improve and will be on my tickets somewhere. Hope they don't self-destruct five seconds after the start.
Discreetly Mine - One Pletcher too many.
Awesome Act - I get the feeling that this might be this year's wise guy horse; already see that Davidowitz picked him, and some other really smart guys I know like him too. I was skeptical going into the Gotham, but that race gets more impressive every time I watch, especially if I pretend he was actually beating anyone worthwhile. Everybody knows the excuses in the Wood, though forget the shoe I say; the pace was enough to doom him, and Leparoux won't have to strangle him back here. Tons of stamina in this pedigree (though mostly the grassy kind). Like his chances, but may be getting a little too crowded on the bandwagon for my taste.
Dublin - Improved numbers at three, which corresponds to his stretching out to two turns. Has fallen a bit short in all three preps this year, but there's a bit of Giacomo/Mine That Bird in these kind of past performance lines. Certainly doesn't seem impossible if the racing gods decide to shine Lukas' way.
Backtalk - Nothing to talk about.
Homeboykris - Has no shot, but at least a good thing for Ramon Dominguez that the race isn't in Arizona.
Sidney's Candy - Could be the key to the race depending on how he takes to the dirt. I know that Big Brown won from this post, but he's not Big Brown. Or maybe he is on dirt, we don't know. If he is, he can use his speed to get good position behind the leaders and go on from there. Problem is that his morning line is far too short to compensate for the questions presented by the surface switch, post position, and that nagging question of whether he can indeed stalk and rally. Obviously talented, fast, and improving, and would take a long look for the win spot at 10-1.
Who do I like? Awesome Act, Lookin at Lucky, Super Saver....and a bit of Dublin, Mission Impazible, Noble's Promise, Sidney's Candy. Still trying to sort it out, and honestly may not do so until I'm scrambling to get a bet in with 8 MTP. Good thing I'm not getting paid for this.
Wow, what a game and what an upset in Washington with the Caps falling in the 7th game against the Canadians! Generally, I'd be rooting for the underdog in this situation, but in this case I found myself rooting for the Caps. I mean, I'm a hockey fan...I want to watch Alexander Ovechkin, not freaking Scott Gomez. I can only imagine how NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman must feel with arguably the league's top attraction on the sidelines. Whatsmore, given the way Sidney Crosby and the Penguins struggled to get past the Senators, perhaps we're looking at an Eastern Conference final of Montreal and the Bruins, who will handily dispatch the injury-ridden Flyers, who are only here because the Devils were terrible (and because they beat the Rangers in a skills competition on the last day of the season). Cool Original Six matchup....but that wouldn't be what the league had in mind for sure.
It's like if, say, the Kentucky Derby lost its marquee attraction shortly before the race.... Oh, I guess it did when Eskendereya was scratched. Problem is that he wasn't much of a marquee attraction to start with. Had he made it to the gate, I'd venture to say that he would have been the least publicly recognizable name to be a decisive Derby favorite in our lifetimes. New favorite Lookin at Lucky actually has better credentials than Pletcher's colt; but still, I'd be rather surprised if this Derby does not turn out to have amongst the lowest TV ratings of all time.
And it's a pretty sad commentary on the quality of the field when I read Mike Welsch assert that the "brilliant" workout by Endorsement, during which the colt broke his leg, was the best one he saw all week. Ugh.
The Derby field is an odd sight with the only two single digit morning line horses bookends on the rail and in the 20 post, and everyone in between at odds of 10-1 or higher. I suspect that the tote board may look a lot different by post time; you never quite know how the money is going to go, especially with the two favorites breaking from such bad posts....and with one of them never having raced on dirt. In fact, I would not be shocked if Sidney's Candy is not bet as heavily as anticipated, and if Ice Box is second choice instead. And I'll reiterate that I'm just not getting Devil May Care; personally, I think she should be closer to the longest shot in the field than the third choice.
There's been some speculation here that perhaps this is the year that a cat-and-mouse game amongst the riders of the speed horses in the field will lead to one of them getting away with the kind of lead in the kind of fractions that could lead to a rare wire-to-wire winner of the race. But I think that the post position draw makes that unlikely. Super Saver, having drawn the four post with Lookin At Lucky, Ice Box, and Noble's Promise drawn inside, seems likely to head straight for the rail and the lead with Calvin Borel aboard. I do really like the way this horse is coming up to this race. Nice foundation with four races as a two-year old, capped by his two-turn win in the Ky Jockey Club, with continued progression in his two races this year. I also like his pedigree; by Marias Mon, sire of Derby winner Monarchos, out of an AP Indy half-sister to graded stakes winners Daydreaming, Girolamo, Accelerator; and to She's A Winner, the dam of the Derby runner-up Bluegrass Cat; and also the distaff family of G1 winner Frost Giant, the successful sire Mutakddim, and the juvenile champion Rhythm. And Welsch has been raving about this horse all week along.
But though I've tried to believe that Super Saver can sit a bit back off the pace as he did in the Arkansas Derby, I think he's clearly a horse who wants the lead. He broke a step slow on the rail at Oaklawn and was outsprinted by Line of David (and it can't be a great sign that he couldn't catch that one as he tired in the stretch). With Line of David breaking just a stall outside of him this time, I'm thinking that, with a good break, Borel will be loathe to yield the rail and the lead this time. Whatsmore, with Sidney's Candy stuck on the outside, I think we can forget about Joe Talamo attempting to rate his horse, and that he will be gunning to clear as many horses and to save as much ground going into the turn as he can. Throw in Conveyance (and, perhaps, American Lion, Paddy O'Prado, and Discreetly Mine) in between, and I think that the assumption that we're going to have a pace meltdown in the race is a safe one upon which to make your wagering decisions.
We had a lively discussion earlier in the month about Sidney's Candy and whether or not he could rate a bit behind the leaders and avoid what appears to be a potentially destructive pace. So it was interesting to watch the video of his workout of a few days ago (can't seem to post it here). In an obviously purposeful drill, Joe Talamo had Sidney's Candy looking pretty comfortable sitting about a length and a half behind stablemate Via Verde down the backstretch before gliding effortlessly up outside of him on the turn. Talamo encouraged him once he changed leads midstretch and got six furlongs in 11.60. At least according to the Kentucky Derby site.
Mike Welsch caught him in 11.44, but noted a somewhat soft final furlong of 13.28 and relatively non-existent gallop out.....while the Derby site says that his final furlong was in a somewhat livelier 12.80. Goes to show you that observations on workouts can differ both subjectively and substantively. But trainer John Sadler and Talamo were pleased, and this is an obviously talented horse who seems worth a look should the tote board reflect the fact that it's his first race on dirt (which I'm not at all sure will be the case).
- Awesome Act worked a half in 48.44.
This was definitely a much more polished and encouraging performance from Awesome Act, especially the way he galloped out willingly. That was something he failed to do prior to the Wood, according to colleague David Grening, and he galloped out only marginally at the tail end of a mediocre six-furlong drill here one week ago. [DRF]
I think that his Gotham was one of the more visually impressive preps, especially considering it was his first dirt race, and despite the face that he didn't beat anyone. If you can overlook his Wood, whether due to his lost shoe or the lethargic pace which prompted Leparoux to have him under a stranglehold, then one can certainly make a case for him.
- And ah yes, what would Derby week be without a front page story in the Times by Joe Drape, this time about the dire state of the breeding industry in Kentucky. Thanks again for the gloom and doom at the sport's finest hour, Joe.
Rule is out, and, according to Mike Welsch in the Form, Todd Pletcher continued to lean strongly against running Interactif in the Derby. The Toddster is down to a filly who I think has no shot, and two colts who I believe do. I know some Sheets guys who really love Mission Impazible, improving slowly but steadily as he has, and with lots of room for further progress. He was pretty tractable in the Louisiana Derby, flashing early speed which carried him to an early lead, dropping back into traffic a few lengths back before moving three wide and rallying resolutely to get up; final furlong in a solid 12.46 seconds. He's a son of Unbridled's Song out of a minor stakes winning Hold Your Peace mare. A bit light in the numbers department with a Tomlinson for the distance of 264 and a dosage index of 4.09, he's a half brother to Forest Camp, a sprint stakes winner and a stallion not particularly known for passing longevity to his progeny. I think Super Saver has better breeding for the distance, and will get to him later.
I mentioned Ice Box rather derogatorily in the last post, though he does figure to be amongst the top few choices off his three wins in his last four races, his 99 Beyer in the Florida Derby, and his popular trainer with a Derby pedigree. About that Beyer, and as I alluded to previously, there were three two-turn dirt races run at Gulfstream that day, all in graded stakes. Ice Box earned a figure that exceeded his prior best by ten points, as did runner-up Pleasant Prince, subsequently a disappointment in the Derby Trial; Devil May Care shattered her prior mark by 11; and Unrivaled Belle set a new lifetime mark as well, albeit just by three points and part of a clear upward pattern. Considering that the abovementioned were three three-year olds, plus Mott's lightly raced four-year old filly, it's certainly possible that all were eligible to move significantly forward. However, these days, the way bettors and pundits rely on the numbers, I think that one has to be willing to sometimes be skeptical of them in order to make some money. So color me skeptical on Zito's colt. Nice distance pedigree - Pulpit out of Spice Island (Tabasco Cat), a graded stakes winner up to a mile and a half. But the Florida Derby was a hot-paced race which fell apart badly, producing top two finishers at odds of 20-1 and 29-1. So I'm tabbing him for minor awards only.
Another sparkling work for Lookin' for Lucky, a legitimate favorite now for sure. But I dunno, can't really get enthused too much about him at 3-1 or 7-2. Nothing specific, just a feeling I guess. Not really jazzed to bet against him either though. Is Penn National running that night?
Interested though to see that Noble's Promise had another nice work. This horse that should have no shot on pedigree continues to intrigue.
This was an important test Noble's Promise had to pass to convince trainer Ken McPeek he was over the minor infirmities that have left his Derby status in doubt the last several weeks. From the looks of things, he passed the test with flying colors. [DRF]
This post is in reaction to comments in the prior thread suggesting that Pletcher's filly, Devil May Care could be third or 4th choice and go off in the 6-1/8-1 range....as well as to the suggestion made twice by Joe Drape in the last couple of days that this daughter of Malibu Moon could be the Toddster's best Derby hope.
With all due respect, I'm not getting that at all. This filly did rebound nicely from two up-the-track efforts in her first two races around two turns in winning the Bonnie Miss. However, that was a near perfect-trip, sitting 4th in the pocket after a smooth start from a good post behind a contested pace against just five other fillies. Her final furlong was run in a mediocre 13 2/5 while being fully ridden out to the wire (and including a brief duck-in after shying from the whip). Yes, she earned a Beyer of 100...on a day which included the Florida Derby, run at the same distance, whose Beyers are a bit suspiciously high in my opinion. I mean, do you really think that Ice Box is one of the very fastest horses in the Derby field?
To be quite frank, not only do I think she would be ridiculously undervalued at 8-1, I don't really believe she belongs in this field. Not that this Derby is anything to write home about, don't get me wrong...it ranks as one of the most uninspiring in my experience. But do you really think this is a filly who has nothing else to prove against her own kind and is just crying out to run against the boys? Personally, I'd take either of two of Pletcher's other entries, Super Saver and Mission Impazible, in a head-to-head proposition against her any day.
Oh well, so much for my grand Derby plans. Eskendereya is out, and there goes the generous subsidy his presence as a dubious heavy favorite would have generated for the rest of the field. Sure, there will still be value to be found, but it will take a lot more effort to find it now.
Todd Pletcher seemed to be calm in delivering the news, and owner Ahmed Zayat might be numb from all the bad news he's gotten this year.
"The left leg is filled from the ankle up to the knee," Pletcher said. "We've got to get the edema out of there to get a proper diagnosis. He's not uncomfortable. But when we took him out of his stall this morning and jogged him on the asphalt, he was what for me I would call 'slightly off.'" [DRF]
Can't help but think that along with the disappointment, deep down the Toddster may feel a sense of relief. After all, the pressure that any trainer would feel by virtue of having the Derby favorite must have been intensified some 24-fold given all of the media attention on his 0-fer Derby record. Really, it's not like he needs a Derby win to prove himself. So just maybe he won't be gripping the saddle quite as tightly when he's saddling up his other five or six runners, none of whom will be carrying nearly the expectations that Eskendereya would have......though, in my opinion, a couple of them will have an excellent chance of breaking his streak. I'll get to those later in the week.
By the way, the Form's clocker, Mike Welsch, was noticeably wishy-washy in his assessments of the horse all week long.
Besides turning the race into a wide-open betting affair (at least for those who didn't think it was one all along), the defection enhances the chance that we will have a filly in the race, as Pletcher told Joe Drape.
Devil May Care has posted three victories in five starts and has been working out superbly at Churchill Downs. She is owned by John Greathouse of Glencrest Farm and was among the favorites to win the Kentucky Oaks, which will be run on Friday.
“He was impressed with her just like we were,” said Pletcher on Saturday morning, after Devil May Care zipped through a five-furlong workout in 1.00.20. “He said he’d be coming back Monday and we’d talk then about whether she might go in the Oaks or the Derby.” [NY Times]
As this reader mentioned, those looking for some closers in the Derby will sure be rooting for Eightyfiveinafifty to win Saturday's Derby Trial. Fans of horses like Sidney's Candy who, I do still believe, will be on or near the lead, hope that he fades in the stretch like the NJ Devils. What can you say....seems like every year we see at least one horse who appears to at least some of us that they're being pushed beyond their limits to satisfy their connections' egos. This colt is very green, and didn't look to me like a horse who wanted to go much further as he was finishing up in the seven furlong Bay Shore. His dosage index is a sky-high 8.33, and there ain't much on the catalog page as they say.
Pleasant Prince will also use the Trial to try and qualify (it would seem that they would both need to earn the full winner's share), and owner Ken Ramsey explained:
“I’d like to be part of it.....I’m getting a little long in the tooth, I’ll be 75 this November, and who knows when I’ll get this chance again. If we get in, we’re going, and if not, we’ll lick our chops and wait for another day.” [Thoroughbred Times]
Well, I won't quibble in this case; Ramsey plays the game at all levels and puts in a lot of money, so he's entitled as long as the horse is up to it. And I'm actually a bit intrigued by this colt, trained by the red-hot Wesley Ward (six winners in his last seven starters, at Gulfstream and Keeneland). Let's forget the Keeneland race, which can of course be discarded due to the surface. Up to that point he had a nice improving pattern; in fact, he had improved his Beyer each race of his career, culminating in his game and narrow second in the Florida Derby, a race in which he got a hot pace to close into and earned a Beyer of 99 which actually would put him in the upper echelon if he made the Derby.
Pleasant Prince also has some intriguing bloodlines despite being by an obscure unraced son of AP Indy who stands in Indiana for $1000. With a loaded dosage index of 2.40, he's out of a Pleasant Tap mare, actually shares the same 4th dam with his grandsire; and this is (therefore) also the distaff family of the Preakness winner Summer Squall; as well as the Belmont winner Lemon Drop Kid, and the distance loving multiple graded winner Christiecat. Seems like the type who could be one of those big price horses who gets a race that falls apart and sneaks onto the bottom of the exotics like the ones El Angelo mentioned....maybe like Don't Get Mad, a closer who won the Derby Trial before rallying for a close 4th in the ultimate fallen apart Derby, won by Giacomo in 2005.
- It wasn't long after I mocked the NTRA website for its tiny replay screen that they got their act together and joined the modern age. The website of the National Hockey League is a good model for further improvement with its vast array of video options. I especially like the Top Moments page from which you can choose from a healthy menu of various highlights arranged by date. While I could do without the slow motion replay of the Flyers' Ian Laperriere blocking a slapshot with his face; I did especially appreciate that they presented the complete replay of a wild and wacky ten minute stretch without a whistle during the first OT of the thrilling Bruins-Sabres Game 4 on Wednesday night.
