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Thursday, April 08, 2010

Candy For Thought

A lot of discussion about the SA Derby winner Sidney's Candy and his Derby prospects in this comments section. I was looking at his past performances, and realized that I saw his first race; I was actually at Del Mar that day and posted about it too, though without mentioning him by name. The winner was a hot first-timer for Baffert who went to the front and hung on over Sidney's Candy gamely; I do recall the race quite clearly.

It's one of the races that DiscreetPicks was referring to when he wrote that the horse has spent ample time sitting behind the leader, and doesn't necessarily have to be in front, a trait which would almost certainly doom him at Churchill (if the unfamiliar surface doesn't do so itself). I think that's a fair point, as well as the fact that the horse has rated quite kindly in his last two front-running wins and shown a nice burst turning for home. However I also think that going to the front is clearly his tendency and preference; as El Angelo pointed out, he was close to a hot pace in the two races in which he broke OK and didn't lead. So I do think he's going to have to do things he's never done before (besides adapting to dirt) if he's going to get the roses. 9-2 on this horse? I wouldn't touch that. But he's clearly talented enough to become enticing at higher odds. Sure wouldn't mind having him at the 22-1 that he closed at in the final futures pool, that's for sure.

Sidney's Candy does have some distance influence in his pedigree, at least on his distaff side. His sire, Candy's Ride, was a champion miler and the AWD of his progeny is only 6.91 furlongs according to Pedigree Query. But he's out of a Storm Cat mare who herself is out of Exchange. That mare, Sidney's Candy's second dam, won the Allez France at around a mile and a quarter, and the Santa Barbara at exactly the same. His third dam is a half to the Queen's Plate winner Steady Growth. Sidney's Candy checks in with a dosage index of 1.86 well under the now discredited 4.0 "limit" for the Derby, but still in my mind an indication that he should be able to get the route.


DiscreetPicks said...

Candy Ride turned in perhaps the most impressive 1 1/4-mile performance i've ever seen, beating the living crap out of Medaglia d'Oro in the Pacific Clasic some years back (on dirt, of course). I wasn't even aware that Sidney's Candy is related to Exchange, but obviously that bodes well also. Btw, Sidney's Candy would be flattered if Interactif runs well in the Blue Grass this weekend, so keep your eyes open for that.

Anonymous said...

We. Could. Be. Looking at a new superstar out here...


ps. DC check your email.

Anonymous said...

I don't figure Esky falls under 3-1 either. I mean fucking Big Brown was close to 5/2 and IEAH bet a million on him....

Anonymous said...

And Esky does not have the appeal, or fun name of Big Brown.

There will be plenty of support for Candy and Lucky as well as whomever is victorious in the ARK Derby, especially if it is Dublin as I expect. All attractive names to the novice which lowers their odds;

Esk 3-1
L@L 4-1
Dublin 9-2
Candy 5-1

Wise guy horse to be determined
10-1 (endorsement?)

Everyone else 15-1 and higher

Anonymous said...

You're off your rocker. Esky is 4-4 on conventional dirt and he won his last two races (both stakes) by 18 lengths combined. He will be no longer than 2-1 and that's assuming LAL makes the gate. -JP from S.D.

El Angelo said...

If Odysseus wins big tomorrow, he'll be under 10-1 also.

Anonymous said...

JP, sure you are aware that since the parimutuel lineup was increased from 14 to 20 separate betting interests, no one has been shorter than Big Brown's 2.40-1 in 2008, per Steve Crist blog.

Will be closer to 3-1 than 2-1, lets say 2.80-1.

Anonymous said...

JP is an absolute know nothing. He's proved it many times before (Rachel).

Esky will be a notch below 3-1 at best (worst?).

If JP is correct (he's not) it will be the most prohibitive favorite since the race changed to allow 20 horses.

And I get the feeling Sidney's Candy might drift up to 6 or 7 to 1.

Anonymous said...

Battaglia, the ML odds maker, yesterday indicated his morning line after Saturday's upsets would be

Esk 2-1
LAL 4-1
Candy 8-1

Everyone else 15-1

I still believe Esk goes off closer to 3-1 than 2-1 but with no one else emerging yesterday to take some money 2-1 is no longer out of the question.

Anonymous said...

Anon, Point Given was 9-5 in 2001. That sounds about right for Esky this year.

And I'm well aware of the change. When I hit the triple in 2000, I would have definitely had Impeachment in 3rd at 40-1 and would have cashed for huge boxcars. Instead I had to buy no-hoper High Yield and Impeachment was 6.80-1. The triple only paid $435. -JP from S.D.