Bookends

Wow, what a game and what an upset in Washington with the Caps falling in the 7th game against the Canadians! Generally, I'd be rooting for the underdog in this situation, but in this case I found myself rooting for the Caps. I mean, I'm a hockey fan...I want to watch Alexander Ovechkin, not freaking Scott Gomez. I can only imagine how NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman must feel with arguably the league's top attraction on the sidelines. Whatsmore, given the way Sidney Crosby and the Penguins struggled to get past the Senators, perhaps we're looking at an Eastern Conference final of Montreal and the Bruins, who will handily dispatch the injury-ridden Flyers, who are only here because the Devils were terrible (and because they beat the Rangers in a skills competition on the last day of the season). Cool Original Six matchup....but that wouldn't be what the league had in mind for sure.

It's like if, say, the Kentucky Derby lost its marquee attraction shortly before the race.... Oh, I guess it did when Eskendereya was scratched. Problem is that he wasn't much of a marquee attraction to start with. Had he made it to the gate, I'd venture to say that he would have been the least publicly recognizable name to be a decisive Derby favorite in our lifetimes. New favorite Lookin at Lucky actually has better credentials than Pletcher's colt; but still, I'd be rather surprised if this Derby does not turn out to have amongst the lowest TV ratings of all time.

And it's a pretty sad commentary on the quality of the field when I read Mike Welsch assert that the "brilliant" workout by Endorsement, during which the colt broke his leg, was the best one he saw all week. Ugh.

The Derby field is an odd sight with the only two single digit morning line horses bookends on the rail and in the 20 post, and everyone in between at odds of 10-1 or higher. I suspect that the tote board may look a lot different by post time; you never quite know how the money is going to go, especially with the two favorites breaking from such bad posts....and with one of them never having raced on dirt. In fact, I would not be shocked if Sidney's Candy is not bet as heavily as anticipated, and if Ice Box is second choice instead. And I'll reiterate that I'm just not getting Devil May Care; personally, I think she should be closer to the longest shot in the field than the third choice.

There's been some speculation here that perhaps this is the year that a cat-and-mouse game amongst the riders of the speed horses in the field will lead to one of them getting away with the kind of lead in the kind of fractions that could lead to a rare wire-to-wire winner of the race. But I think that the post position draw makes that unlikely. Super Saver, having drawn the four post with Lookin At Lucky, Ice Box, and Noble's Promise drawn inside, seems likely to head straight for the rail and the lead with Calvin Borel aboard. I do really like the way this horse is coming up to this race. Nice foundation with four races as a two-year old, capped by his two-turn win in the Ky Jockey Club, with continued progression in his two races this year. I also like his pedigree; by Marias Mon, sire of Derby winner Monarchos, out of an AP Indy half-sister to graded stakes winners Daydreaming, Girolamo, Accelerator; and to She's A Winner, the dam of the Derby runner-up Bluegrass Cat; and also the distaff family of G1 winner Frost Giant, the successful sire Mutakddim, and the juvenile champion Rhythm. And Welsch has been raving about this horse all week along.

But though I've tried to believe that Super Saver can sit a bit back off the pace as he did in the Arkansas Derby, I think he's clearly a horse who wants the lead. He broke a step slow on the rail at Oaklawn and was outsprinted by Line of David (and it can't be a great sign that he couldn't catch that one as he tired in the stretch). With Line of David breaking just a stall outside of him this time, I'm thinking that, with a good break, Borel will be loathe to yield the rail and the lead this time. Whatsmore, with Sidney's Candy stuck on the outside, I think we can forget about Joe Talamo attempting to rate his horse, and that he will be gunning to clear as many horses and to save as much ground going into the turn as he can. Throw in Conveyance (and, perhaps, American Lion, Paddy O'Prado, and Discreetly Mine) in between, and I think that the assumption that we're going to have a pace meltdown in the race is a safe one upon which to make your wagering decisions.