NJ Horsemen Get Scolding

- Only 65 horses were originally entered for Friday's card at the Meadowlands, and the head of the SBOANJ (you can figure out what it stands for) fired off an angry letter to his membership.

Despite all the time, effort and money that has gone into the battle to keep the Meadowlands open, it would appear to be a mistake. Why did we give up so much of ourselves to make the track viable when you, our members, clearly are not prepared to support that effort?

We understand the pressure of following the money, but there is certainly nothing wrong with the purses at the Meadowlands. You need to step up and enter your horses. If you want, split your stables. But abandoning the entry box at the Meadowlands is to doom the track.

Perhaps the letter had its desired effect; this commenter on John Brennan's Meadowlands Matters blog at NorthJersey.com (also the home of the excellent Ranger Rants blog, where I get all my info and insight on my beloved Broadway Blueshirts from The Record's beat writer Andrew Gross), notes: "They had a full box for Saturday with 137 horses entered." I'm gonna take his word for it, don't feel like counting. [Confirmed.] (And Friday's card seems to be up to a still uninspiring 76.) The card does include two stakes races worth over $450,000 in total purse money, which both drew full fields of ten.

On Friday, the Meadowlands is offering ten races for a total of $153,000 for ten races, while Yonkers has 11 for $283,000. It's almost not fair. Plus, from what I've read, the competition is considered to be easier at Yonkers. So, you can use the rah-rah approach for awhile, but hey, people have to pay their bills and make a living. I think it's hard to blame and reproach people for doing what they need to do.

- Brennan also writes about the situation at Monmouth.

Meanwhile at Monmouth Park, the only clarity is that racing will continue through Memorial Day weekend. After that, horsemen Morris Bailey is supposed to take over operation, assuming responsibility for losses that figure to be in the millions unless purses are drastically reduced - thereby dimming fan enthusiasm for what would be lesser cards. Some more details here.[Meadowlands Matters]

Worth checking out that link for more info, but it seems as if a deal to keep the track open beyond May 31 is not at all certain.

Wednesday News and Notes

The crush of handicappers re-checking those pedigrees at the last minute for their Derby contenders must have been too much for the Pedigree Query site, which was completely down throughout the weekend. It was back up on Tuesday, and I wanted to write about Animal Kingdom's pedigree.....or actually I should say, see it for myself. Have to admit I really never took a close look, as I never considered betting on this horse. So I didn't bother looking past his sire, the grass horse Leroidesanimeaux. (And yes jp, I think about that Breeders' Cup every day his name comes up. Sorry to hear of your disappointment on Derby Day. :)

But now, tonight, the site is down for maintenance, so we'll have to talk about something else. The Derby winner has arrived in Baltimore, and was reported to be hungry. Graham Motion is sounding very confident.

"I think it will be a full field. I don't think anybody will be running away from him. He's an amazing horse, a brilliant horse." [Baltimore Sun]

High praise, though Motion is British, and they call everything "brilliant!." I speak to people in London on the phone at work, send them a copy of an invoice or something, and it's "brilliant!" So I'm not sure if Motion thinks his horse is really brilliant, or just brilliant!.

Speaking of our British friends; always like to check the Independent to see what Chris McGrath has to say. He wasn't at the Derby it turns out, but filed this report on 5th place finisher Master of Hounds.

A couple of lengths in third that day was his stablemate, Master Of Hounds, who ran a storming race to be fifth in the 137th Kentucky Derby on Saturday...Master Of Hounds was well behind early under Garrett Gomez, but vindicated O'Brien's suspicion that he would adapt to the dirt, staying on to be beaten five and a half lengths behind Animal Kingdom – himself a horse with turf antecedents. It is likely that Master Of Hounds will be kept back for the third leg of the Triple Crown, the Belmont Stakes, where his stamina seems sure to make him competitive.

"It was a great run for his first time on dirt," Gomez said. "Down the backstretch they threw the brakes on, and it cost us. We were at the mercy of the pace, but he ran sensationally through the dirt. I'm really looking forward to the Belmont." [Independent]

Master of Hounds ran the final quarter in 24.13, the 4th fastest in the race (behind Dialed In (23.79), Animal Kingdom, and the absurdly overbet Twice the Appeal).

They 'threw the brakes on,' as Gomez said, for sure - a 25.2 second 2nd quarter after an opening in 23.1. That's really unbelievable. What happened to the expected speed duel? They quickened home from there - 24.4 and 24 flat to the quarter pole. One might say that Animal Kingdom closed against the grain of the pace; but the fact is, he was never that far back himself - not more than 6 1/4 lengths in his past performance line (which I can see via Formulator). So I think this is one of those cases like we discussed recently where a slow pace helps the closer; Animal Kingdom was able to stay well in contact despite being able to loaf through the first half mile in 49.68 seconds. So, sure he had a lot left, and not that many lengths to make up.

I'm not downgrading his performance; he was obviously better than say, Master of Hounds, who wasn't that far behind the winner early on. But we can't assume that a quicker pace in the Preakness will automatically make things easier for him. Might not show such a keen closing kick if he has to run 24 second splits just to keep up. Having said that, I don't think the Derby was that tough of a race for him. He had a clean trip and only had to run hard for a half mile. So I think he could still be pretty fresh for the Preakness - remember, he hadn't raced in six weeks, and has only started three times this year.

- jp brought up a good point about dead Derby money that didn't make it to the tote in New York. I had several people who used to make it to an OTB once a year ask me how they could get a bet down this year. I did get NYRA one new customer that I know of (do I get commission?), but others said they didn't want to bother signing up for a single race. (Though one of them sent a friend to Yonkers.)

Pedigree Query back up, will get to that pedigree one of these days.

On Barry Irwin

Just a quick comment here on Barry Irwin's televised comments in the immediate aftermath of the Derby to the effect that he hired Graham Motion because he was tired of trainers lying to him; a comment that has drawn criticism from some in the press and blogosphere, and from trainers themselves. I wasn't particularly surprised to hear Irwin say that; in fact I was rather amused. He's long been a colorful guy who says exactly what's on his mind. And, as Bill Finley relates in his column today, he has no tolerance for those who dishonor the game by not playing by the rules. Whatsmore, he's a strong-willed and a strongly opinionated owner, and not the only one, I'm sure, in this highly subjective game, who might equivocate an honest difference of opinion with his trainer as a deliberate misrepresentation of the facts. Same as an investor who might have similar sentiments about his stock broker. And, as Pletcher said, sometimes people say things in the heat of a momentous occasion that they might not totally mean. (Not to say that he definitely didn't!)

So, I wouldn't be too harsh on the guy. The sport could do far worse than for him to be in the spotlight for the next five weeks. And as far as the trainers who, as reported by David Grening in the Form, were disgusted by Irwin’s nationally televised remarks, unfortunately, they, as a group (emphasized here because surely some among the complainers cited may have a clean record), don't really have much to say on the matter. After all, as Joe Drape has repeatedly pointed out, Graham Motion is one of only two trainers in the top 20 earnings list without a drug violation. And using banned medications is kinda like lying, isn't it?

Hunch Bets for Tuesday, May 10

Playboy At Home 2nd at Mountaineer
Good Ride 1st at Fairmount Park
Runninscared 6th at Fairmount
Reason To Drink 4th at Parx
She Said She Said 3rd at Penn National
Trojan Victory 4th at Prairie Meadows

Derby Boosts NYRA

Huge day for NYRA on Saturday, with over 14,000 in attendance at Belmont (11,051) and Aqueduct (3,007) (which, by the way, is open every day for simulcasting); that's as opposed to 9,405 at Belmont last year.

NYRA simulcast wagering on Saturday totaled $4,465,743, an increase of 115 percent over last year’s total of $2,077,461. The simulcast total includes $840,483 wagered via the NYRA Rewards internet platform (up 224 percent from $259,047 last year) and $446,773 from NYRA Rewards telephone wagering (up 91 percent from $233,657 last year).

The amount of telephone calls that NYRA handled this year on Derby Day was 10,818, a 139 percent increase from the 4,522 calls that were handled last year. [NYRA Press Release]

While NYRA wasn't saying in their press release, I wouldn't be surprised if someone there broke out those telephone call figures, into a separate paragraph, as a little jab back at Governor Cuomo and other politicians who have criticized their new arrangement with Twin Spires' telephone hub in Oregon. The Governor may not express any interest whatsoever in the sport, but he knew just where to find NYRA when he wanted a whipping post for some political grandstanding. Some cheap rhetoric designed perhaps to distract from the fact the He Himself chose tax cuts for millionaires over jobs.

Well, maybe he and Charlie Hayward can talk it over at the Belmont, if the Governor can find his way.

This is big business for NYRA across the board, as detailed in the press release; and all at the top retention rates for it, and the state (which some people seem to conveniently forget). 3,000 at Aqueduct - that's more than the had there on most racing days before OTB closed. Imagine what they might do there once the place is fixed up, and the sports bar opens at the racino. [Here is where I usually go off about how they should have nighttime harness races conducted by Yonkers on the mile inner track during the summer when the thoroughbreds are upstate, but I guess it makes far too much sense and seems too cool to ever come about.]

Meanwhile, across the river, the trotters are back in action at the Meadowlands; at least for now. After Jeff Gural and the unions came to an agreement, Governor Christie declared, in his usual humble way, that he would permit the track to open to race and take simulcast wagers in May. However, he and Gural have not worked out all the details, so nothing's guaranteed beyond that. Apparently, there was some outstanding and remaining "issues."

Close to 14,000 people reportedly turned out for the opening day on Saturday (that makes nearly 30,000 at racetracks around here; pretty cool!) But other than that, the numbers seem pretty grim. Three day a week racing, total purses on Sunday afternoon of $84,500 for the nine race card, compared to $111,000 through the first eight races at Yonkers as I write this on Monday night. I think it's going to take more than a smaller grandstand to turn things around there.

King of the Kingdom

I'm out on a shopping mission with the Head Chef, who has two big catering jobs this week and will be spending at least part of her Mother's Day working. Sitting by the car outside Chelsea Market awaiting my next assignment, so have a few minutes for some brief initial thoughts on the Derby (which actually probably doesn't warrant that much discussion anyway. On my smartphone so the usual rules regarding typos and stuff apply.

Seems kinda funny that, after all those months of silly top ten lists, ridiculous ramblings by Haskin on 4th place finishers in one prep or another with various excuses, and all the overanalyses and obsessing, the the main tipoff to the winner was a stellar workout or two which indicated that Animal Kingdom might indeed like the dirt. That information becomes well-known here in the internet age; 20 years ago, nobody would have known and the horse might have been 40-1 (if he wasn't part of the mutuel field). Maybe next year we can all find better things to do with our time, as the traditional preps and preparation methods fade further into the oblivion of better times for the sport.

Of course, both Brilliant Speed and Twinspired got good workout reviews too. Where I went wrong in lumping the 3 of them together and summarily dismissing them as synth/turf horses is that, unlike the other 2, AK had not raced on dirt and therefore already indicated that he couldn't run on it. I had characterized Drape's selection of the winner as a 'desperate flailing stab' or something like that. I don't regret that at all, and wouldn't take it back even now. A bet on a horse who'd won a nondescript G3 on a synthetic surface, coming home in 39 seconds for the last 3/8ths, is nothing but that. However, a good handicapper knows when the time is appropriate for just such a shot in the dark. The hint for me should have been when Archarcharch drew the rail, I went back to the field and couldn't find a single other horse that I liked enough to replace him with. I dunno, I guess that I still take the race too seriously, and am afraid to make a "bad pick;" one i'd feel silly about if it ran up the track. So, great job by all of you who saw through the rest of this highly flawed field, and took a real shot at the right time.

Having said all of that, this was no fluke. AK earned a legit Beyer of 103, and closed in real racehorse time of 24 seconds flat. In the absence of any valid new faces, he'll be a solid and legitimate favorite at Pimlico two weeks hence.

Belmont Sunday

In the 9th, the Nany, Catch a Thief (3-1) returns to the track, and distance, where she ran her career high Beyer; a second-level allowance in which she prevailed after a lengthy duel with Five Grand Girl, who since then is a neck away from being five-for-five, including two stakes over the inner track this past winter. Four-year daughter of Flatter was stretched out to a mile for her last three, and with great success the first two times. Last out however, in the G3 Sabin at Gulfstream, she faded after finding herself head and head down the backstretch with eventual winner Awesome Maria, who subsequently won the G3 Rampart by eight lengths. Consistent and versatile filly (8 of 9 in the money) returns after a freshening, has won off similar layoffs before, and has shown the ability to run well from off the pace in sprints. Ravi Maragh, who was in the saddle for the abovementioned Belmont win last fall, returns today for trainer Timothy Hills. Tar Heel Mom (8-5), twice a graded stakes winner, is strictly the one to beat; no real knocks here other than the fact that her best races have come on surfaces other than this, over which she's 0-for-3 after graduating over it nearly three years ago. Worstcasescenario (5-1) made her four-year old debut a rousing success with a career high Beyer after a disappointing three-year old season; eligible to improve. Best of luck and have a great Mother's Day!

Belmont Saturday

In the 6th, the G3 Beaugay (which now seems certain to be run on the turf on what is a spectacularly sunny day despite the dour forecasts), Gitchee Goomie (3-1) ships up from Gulfstream for trainer Richard Violette Jr. Last fall, this daughter of City Zip stepped up from entry-level state-bred company to the G1 Garden City for three-year old fillies on this course, and held for a close third at 21-1. She then confirmed that effort with a win in an open company overnight stakes. Love to see a filly like this return in the pink as this one did last month at GP; exploding through the stretch after a wide rally on the turn, and holding off Blue Angel, a sharp Euro import for Clement who had the benefit of a winning effort over the track a few weeks earlier. The result chart says that Gitchee Goomie was "all out" at the end, but what race was this guy watching? You really gotta see these races for yourself sometimes. Garcia had put the whip away, and just flashed it out to give his filly a look and a reminder as they approached the wire. Alex Solis rides today. Maram (8-5), the 2008 Juvie Fillies Turf winner, last ran in August at Saratoga, and seeks her first graded stakes win since the Miss Grillo in her two-year old year. Always fires fresh, and is the obvious horse to beat. But will be bet amply for Chad Brown (28% with 180+ returnees); no value here. Best of luck and have a great day.

If We Must, We Must....

This is the third year in a row that the Wood Memorial winner didn't make it to the Derby due to injury; and this year it was the hat trick, with the top three finishers, Toby's Corner, Arthur's Tale, and Uncle Schmo, all faltering due to various reasons. Grimmer still, it's the third consecutive year that the probable or, this year, possible Derby favorite ran in the Wood and then didn't make it to Churchill. Not a good thing for NY's big Derby prep, which hasn't produced a winner since Monarchos in 2001, and which has produced Derby disappointments such as Bob and John, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Bellamy Road, and Tapit.

Well, I guess I have to declare who I like. I suppose that it's required to go on the record, so then I can write about how my picks suck. (Drape is likely to extend his streak with his flailing stab of Animal Kingdom.)

I'd actually like to keep my options open, and be free to change my mind, inspired perhaps by an unexpected overlay, an incisive insight by Gary Stevens (or maybe even Mike Battaglia?), or simply a last-minute hunch.

However, if we must (though I reserve the right, in this specific case, to change my mind without sending any tweets).... Archarcharch (12-1) drew the dreaded rail, but I'm sticking with him as the top selection (albeit in large part because I simply don't like anyone else in the field [at least at the anticipated odds] enough to change my mind).

I read somewhere, and I don't feel like looking for it right now, that the one post has actually produced 12 winners, tied for the most in Derby history. However, here in the era of 20 horse fields, it hasn't produced a winner since Winning Colors...and she simply outbroke the field and wired the field. With Archarcharch likely to attempt to reproduce his deep close in the Arkansas Derby, jockey Jon Court might want to take a look at the way Ferdinand won from the rail in 1986.



Just love the way this colt has improved in his four starts this year, even, Beyer-wise, in the Rebel after he was kicked repeatedly by the horse in the adjoining stall. He's reportedly made great strides in his training at Churchill, and I can't help but feel that this colt is coming on, and coming up to a big effort. Excellent tactical speed could help him avoid trouble, but he showed the ability to close from a ways back in the Arkansas Derby, blowing by the leaders in the stretch after being just about widest of all while gaining ground on the far turn. He's a son of Arch, from the Roberto sire line, out of a mare by the Irish champion Woodman. Solid 1.73 dosage number, and a number of distance stakes winners on his distaff side. Will need some luck, but so does everyone else.

Midnight Interlude (10-1) really was quite impressive in the Santa Anita Derby, very wide on the first turn, and having to stop and shift out a path in the stretch. Don't know what he beat, but do know he ain't running against all that much here either. A couple of bullet works over the track; despite that, a mediocre assessment by the Form's Mike Welsch, but that could be too much information in this case. Seems to be getting ignored by the pundits, which I consider a good thing. Tactical speed and a good closing kick could put him in the mix.

Santiva (30-1) gets a pass for his disappointing Blue Grass, which came after he impressively built on his two-year old year with a bang-up, and very wide, second in the Risen Star. Son of Giant's Causeway has nice Tomlinson and dosage numbers which perhaps are more important than the sprint names we see on his distaff side. Another with the tactical speed to stay close and out of trouble.

I see that Beyer likes Shackleford (12-1) to win the whole thing. I dunno, I can't imagine him staying ten furlongs, even if he's trained well since the Florida Derby as reported. He did indeed show some real grit hanging on after being kept busy defending his lead throughout the race. Could see him hanging on for a share but would be pretty shocked if he takes the big prize given the way he tired at Gulfstream.

I discussed Soldat (12-1) in the last post, and El Angelo wrote in to report that he'd read where McLaughlin said that he hated getting dirt kicked in his face in the Florida Derby. That would explain why he's successfully rated on the grass, but has only been successful on the lead on dirt. That could definitely be a problem in this race. So, I've soured a bit on this colt. On the other hand, maybe the dirt in the face served as a learning experience, and El Angelo will have talked me off a live horse.

Nehro (6-1) has declined in stature for me, in part because of his draw in post 19, and additionally because everyone else seemed to like him. Now, with a final workout which was reportedly lackluster (and a lack of activity since, according to Welsch), he seems to have lost some buzz. Still, this one-time winner closed like gangbusters in his close second place finishes in the La. and Ark. Derbys. Worth taking a peek at the board to see if he's offered at significantly higher odds than his morning line. Otherwise, I'll pass.

Dialed In (9-2), as I've written before, is a nice young colt who is eligible to improve; but needs everything to fall his way, and is therefore an awful favorite here.

Brilliant Speed (30-1) is picking up some attention based on how good he's reportedly looked training over the dirt track. Has shown the kind of improvement we love to see; and, being a son of Dynaformer out of a Gone West mare, certainly has license to run well on dirt. And maybe his two dirt races were bad because they were sprints. Still, the history thus far of Poly horses in this race compels me to disregard him, as well as Animal Kingdom, and Twinspired.

Pants On Fire (20-1) is one of the speed horses who we're all just assuming (well, me, anyway) will race each other into submission and set it up for one of the closers, be it midpack or deep. But this horse perhaps deserves a closer look based on his game Louisiana Derby win over Nehro, who will be sent off at far lower odds.

I still don't like Mucho Macho Man (12-1) at all.

Derby Notes

Bob Baffert isn't buying the gastrointestinal infection story.

"Uncle Mo looks fantastic out there to me.....Everyone is talking about him being 50/50. I think [owner Mike Repole] is just trying to build a price for himself because it sounds like he likes to gamble. He's going to be dangerous. I don't think it's some [gastrointestinal issue], I think he just got tired at the Wood [Memorial]. From what I've seen visually, there is nothing there that tells me the horse isn't ready to run. I'm not buying that crap. He's just trying to steal this race." [LA Times]

I had written that if the connections said that Uncle Mo was fine and he ran poorly, then people would think that they, and the sport, was full of it. But it can work the other way around too. If he runs lights out, then no doubt people may suspect what Baffert does (though I figure he had his tongue at least partially implanted in his cheek); or, that Repole was simply trying to preserve the horse's reputation. I'd imagine that there would be some pretty bitter horseplayers come Saturday night should Uncle Mo win at healthy odds, and you know how suspicious they can be.

So there's likely to be a healthy dose of skepticism either no matter what happens. At least we'll find out on Friday morning if he's going to run at all. [UPDATE: Scratched. As he should have been three weeks ago, what a farce.] (In his final workout report, Mike Welsch said that while Uncle Mo looked pretty good on the track, he feels like the horse is "little bit less than 100%," and seems to think he won't run, perhaps taking the word of the owner and trainer who have pledged not to run unless he is 100%. His final comments on each of the entrants can be found here.)

A few more horses of some interest (or not):

Soldat is reported to be training extremely well, bouncing back from his disappointing Florida Derby. Remember, he was actually favored over Derby morning line favorite Dialed In that day. So if you can excuse his ten length defeat, then he might look pretty ok at his 12-1 morning line (preferably higher). His connections say he just had a bad day. “It was just the trip and the draw, a hot day and deep track,” said Kiaran McLaughlin. Soldat is considered to be one of the speed threats off his two front-running wins (the 103 Beyer he earned in his sloppy allowance win will surely attract money should the weather turn bad). However, he has rated successfully in his grass efforts. Maybe those dirt races just weren't that fast - his early Moss pace figures are not in the league with those of speedy types like Shackleford, Comma at the Top, Pants on Fire, and even Decisive Moment. So, I think he'll be tracking the pace, especially considering his outside post.

Soldat is a son of War Front (Danzig), a sprinting type himself, out of a mare by the Wood winner Coronado's Quest. Besides the usual inbreeding to Mr. Prospector, this one has Round Table 5x4. Not too often you see that this close up these days. Not much on the catalog page....a description that I seem to apply to more and more Derby horses over the last few years. I think that the dropoff in overall quality we've seen in Derby fields of late has been totally apparent from a pedigrees standpoint as well. But I digress. Go back to the colt's sixth dam, and you'll find distinguished distance horses such as Fort Marcy, Key to the Mint, Papineau, Silver Patriarch, and Key To Content. So there's some classic distance influence in there somewhere. This one wouldn't be a shocker if he wins.

Santiva (30-1) has a stakes win over the track, and a surface excuse for the poor effort over the Polytrack in the Blue Grass. His prior two to that race were good ones on the dirt. He ran second in the Risen Star to Mucho Macho Man by just a length and a half; yet he figures to be significantly higher than that one on the tote here. Didn't get a ringing endorsements from Welsch however. Son of Giant's Causeway is out of Smarten mare who's a half sister to a couple of crack sprinters in Partner's Hero and, especially, Safely Kept. Hmmm.

Midnight Interlude came out of a maiden race to win the G1 SA Derby, perhaps more a commentary on the strength of that field than a testament to his improvement. He did however earn a 97 Beyer, which makes him one of the fastest horses in this field; and that despite being extremely wide on both turns. Good tactical speed, a nice closing kick (12.3 for the final furlong of the SA Derby despite traffic issues midway), and the training mastery of Bob Baffert. He's a son of War Chant (a stout 7.7 furlong average winning distance) out of a Groom Dancer mare. Again, not much to see on the catalog page as far as notable names on his distaff side; but comes in at a solid 2.47 on the dosage scale. Definitely a possibility, but would demand significantly more than his 10-1 morning line.

Those interested in taking a shot on a horse who could perhaps steal the race up front might want to take a peek at Shackleford (though at his morning line of 12-1, again, seems very light). Big improvement in his near miss in the Florida Derby, earning some solid Moss numbers along the way. Yes, he tired badly as we've noted before - 39.1 for the last three furlongs. But he's reported to be training very well, as evidenced by that bullet five furlong work over the track. Being a son of Forestry, from the Storm Cat line, may not inspire confidence that he could hold on at the Derby distance; but he is a half-brother to Lady Joanne, who won the Alabama at a mile and a quarter.

Dull Derby

Got stuck in Florida for an extra day. When we got to the airport in Sarasota on Monday evening, the departure board read 'Early Departure' for our Jet Blue flight. Sure enough, we rolled out onto the runway about 15 minutes early. And then sat there for 15 minutes before the pilot says that there's hot air leaking from somewhere, "and that's not a good thing." Long story short, they canceled the flight, and we were lucky to get on the same flight the following night.

Well, could be worse things to be "stuck" by the Gulf on a cloudless day with the temperature in the upper 80's. But I was a bit stressed because I was thinking that I had to get home to blog about the Derby, since there's no place else for you to read about it. But then I checked out Wednesday's official Derby Barn Notes (dutifully delivered, along with that of the Oaks, daily to my inbox courtesy of Churchill Downs), and saw the following headlines:

* COMMA TO THE TOP PAYS FIRST VISIT TO CHURCHILL DOWNS TRACK
* DIALED IN GETS IN SOME EARLY MORNING PADDOCK SCHOOLING
* MAKER DUO OF TWINSPIRED, DERBY KITTEN SETTLES IN FROM TRACKSIDE

Oh, man. Is this a sucky edition of the Derby, or what? Plus, there is no The Works on TVG, and it seems as if hardly anyone is working in this final week anyway. What is there even to say at this point? Handicapping the race is, in my opinion, ess a matter anymore of meticulously scrutinized and analying past performances, preparation, and historical trends than just trying to anticipate improvement, guess about the distance, insist on more than fair value, and get lucky.

I'm way bummed that Toby's Corner dropped out. I hated him here, and he would have taken a fair amount of money. (Though there is hope for the future. “I would say it is 50-50 right now,” Motion said, referring to the Preakness.) We've lost a bunch that I'd put in that category - Tha Factor, To Honor And Serve, Jaycito, to name a few. And of course there's the way that Uncle Mo the wonder horse suddenly developed acute indigestion upon seeing the sixteenth pole of the nine furlong Wood, and that one, who I always intended to bet against, ballooned in odds.

However, with Dialed In (4-1) and Uncle Mo (9-2) listed as the first and second choices, respectively, in the morning line, there will surely be good value to be found elsewhere. I hate Dialed In as the favorite. Hard to look past the way he struggled to edge Shackleford in the Florida Derby in a final furlong run in just under 14 seconds. Mike Welsch, in his video workout report on Wednesday, observed that Uncle Mo appeared to have "lightened" from last week. Always a good sign for a horse with an alleged stomach problem to have lost weight. If Welsch's observation is accurate, look for this one to, unfortunately, scratch. Mucho Macho Man (12-1) will be lower than that I think, and I don't like him either as I've said before (though he's also been positively reviewed by Welsch).

A couple of the horses that I actually do like did not fare at all well in the post position draw; Nehro (6-1, post 19) and Archarcharch (10-1, post 1). An especially emphatic ugh to the latter, who I like as much as anyone in this race. Improving form, nice pedigree, and love the way he changed tactics and closed from far back in the Arkansas Derby. Welsch has been raving about this one all week. Nehro, as mentioned before, as well as he's closed in his last two, remains eligible for entry-level allowance. Don't think that makes him a bargain at 6-1. But I think he has to be included on the tickets somewhere.

Brilliant Speed (30-1) is a little tempting to me based on his consistency and improvement. However, we have this situation every year it seems, where people get hooked on the turf/synthetic horse who wins the Blue Grass and inevitably lose their money. Both this horse and the Blue Grass runner-up Twinspired (another Welsch favorite) ran by far their worst races in their starts on dirt. I find that that usually means something. Two post isn't great for Brilliant Speed either.'

Some more observations tomorrow, and then maybe we can get to Belmont?

A Smart Phone

Wow, I can actually post on this thing? I guess this is jus tone step away from setting up a twitter account!

Ok well another glorious day on the gulf coast of florida, too nice to sit inside, so here goes, excuse any typos or sloppy punctuation. I'd noted before uncle mo's 3yo debut that repole claimed Caixa electronica for 62.5k with some pocket change probably just to distract himself. But now the 6yo son of Arromanches has one more graded stakes win than his juvenile champ in 2011 after he won the westchester at belmont on sat. Haynesfield barely saw the lead, flopping at 4-5 in his 1st start sine the Cigar Mile. Not an auspicious start for a horse you figure could make some hay in the handicap division this year. Convocation, who'd. Also last run at Gulfstream, was secondk and this was one of six races won by gp shippers on the first 2 days of the meet (with a couple of others of runners-up). Only logical to figure that those horses will do well here considering the enormous disparity between the quality of racing there and at the big A.

Sent from my Samsung Intercept by the pool.

Back to Belmont

We're down at my mom's house in Florida for a long weekend....and with my mom. And two of the kids. Not one of those romantic vacations, but sure is nice and sunny and hot here. And the wireless modem is zapped, so don't know how much I'll be posting for the next few days....but will be back in time to try and decipher next weekend's Derby.

Friday was the first day of the post-NYC OTB era at Belmont Park, and NYRA issued a press release to trumpet an opening day crowd of just under 6,000, helped no doubt by the return of Long Island Railroad service with the financial assistance of NYRA.

The LIRR eliminated Belmont stops last year to contend with budget shortfalls. It cost $112,000 to operate the service in 2009. An NYRA spokesman declined to say how much it is paying the LIRR for the service, which runs to July 17. [Wall St Journal]

A prudent move no doubt by the association as it continues to nimbly adapt to the new era. They've also revamped the third floor food court, adding booze, new TVs, and betting machines.

As much as I'm excited about Belmont, and the (hopefully) imminent return of the big stables, I'm kinda sorry to see Keeneland end. Part of that is of course that I had a great meet there (another winner picked on the blog yesterday - Looks Purrfect [$12.60]). But in any event, I find the races there to be fascinating betting contests, with all kinds of different angles to explore, and with easily targeted favorites to beat; specifically those who take money off of performances on different surfaces. So, a fond farewell until the fall.

- So it took the hot-button issue of jobs and outsourcing to prompt Governor Guomo to finally have a word about NYRA. He probably had to ask his aides just how to address his letter to. But when he got the name Charlie Hayward, he fired off a curt and direct missive regarding NYRA's plans to outsource telephone wagering operators to a company in Oregon (this despite the fact that NYRA made it clear in their original announcement that no local jobs would be lost).

It is my understanding that the New York Racing Association (NYRA) has entered into a contract to conduct NYRA's telephone wagering from a facility located in Oregon. NYRA's decision to locate these activities and the potential jobs out of State is extremely troubling given the extraordinary investment New York State has made to maintain NYRA's viability over the years.

My top priority as Governor is to create jobs in New York State. As such, I expect you to do everything possible to ensure that these telephone wagering activities are conducted within New York State by New York State taxpayers. The Empire State Development Corporation stands ready to help you to identify options for keeping these jobs within the State.

I would ask your full cooperation in this effort and look forward to a prompt response.

Of course, the governor doesn't acknowledge the fact that any money that the State made to assist NYRA in its troubles over the last few years has helped to save thousands of jobs, and comprises a mere pittance compared to the money NYRA's races contribute, both directly and indirectly, to the state. Typical ignorant political bluster at an always easy target. I'll link to Hayward's response here without any further comment at this time, as we're off to the beach. Best of luck in all of your wagering endeavors and have a great day.

Keeneland Friday

- In the 5th, Looks Purrfect (5-1) ships in from Fair Grounds for Steve Asmussen, 0 for 16 now on the meeting, with 3-2 Macias finishing 3rd in Thursday's 4th, discussed in the last post. Agastache went off 2-1 and was a tough luck loser to Pointing North.

Looks Purrfect would seem to have a significant class edge over the rest of these non-winners of two lifetime, with a decent resume of picking up some minor shares in allowance company; and even a close 4th in an overnight stakes. Four-year old son of Kitten's Joy always gives an honest effort no matter where he finishes. He got some needed class relief after a freshening, and responded with two competitive thirds at FG. In his last, on turf and therefore more relevant I believe with this race on the Poly, he was solidly 3-4 wide throughout the first turn, and hampered by a pace which was languid until the final quarter, when they sprinted home in 23.4. Despite that, Looks Purrfect rallied well through the stretch, and seemed to have second locked up, before he was passed late by the ground-saving Mustang Powder. Winning Crown of Aragorn stepped up to open 50K company and ran second (albeit with a moderate 63 Beyer. Good post here, and Asmussen steps this one up a bit with confidence. Main concern is the poor effort in his lone try on this surface; hopefully, explained by it being his first against winners, and the significant traffic problems which had him pinned on the rail towards the rear of the pack. Been working slowly but steadily over the Poly, and I think his class edge, even with the jump in class, is clear enough to make him worth a bet at or near his morning line.

Iwannaiwannaiwanna (4-1) moves up from a maiden win, but that was a dominating effort in his first try on Poly. Horse to beat for the red hot Ken McPeek. Ghostwalking (4-1) drops in class for Mott, and raced well against maiden special company at Woodbine last year.

Keeneland Thursday

The 4th at Keeneland on Thursday is the kind of race that I instantly know I want to bet. Just takes a quick glance at the 8-5 morning line favorite to determine that I want to bet against it.....if it really is an 8-5 favorite, that is....and that there will therefore be value on the others. Not at all that Macias is a bad horse. Quite the contrary; two overnight stakes wins amongst a record of 12-4-2-2 achieved entirely against stakes company after his two starts in maiden races. However, he hasn't been out since August, when he was far back in the G2 LaHolla, ending the year with six straight losing tries. He returns here for new trainer Asmussen, whose 180+ record (13%) lags behind his usual 20% overall win average. Whatsmore, and perhaps most damningly, he's never raced over the Keeneland Poly.

Having said that though, the horse has worked in sparkling fashion over the surface, and I might like him in this spot at 7-2. But if he gets bet like the morning oddsmaker thinks he will (which most assuredly doesn't mean that he will...especially, it seems to me, at this meeting [just plain bad lines or particularly sharp players he's not giving proper due to?]), then I think it's definitely worth looking into an alternative. I mean, to me, the only way to make money in this game is to pounce when you think that the public is just dead wrong.

Agastache (3-1) ships in from Oaklawn for trainer Rick Niles, 0-for-20 overall for the year, but a 10% guy who has been getting close of late. Son of Mutakddim raced pretty well at Hot Springs. Yeah, I'd rather not see that his Beyers have declined in each of his four races this year. But he's run into pretty tough company in his last two, fruitlessly chasing a couple of fast horses in Chief of Affairs; and Inktado (who has returned in extremely fine form off a long layoff for new trainer Anthony Dutrow and could bear watching down the road). In his last, he was forced to go four wide on the turn, and couldn't run down Delong Road, an up-the-ladder four-year old who's come on strong for Wayne Lukas, who has come on strong himself! Best of all are the two excellent tries over this track last fall with Beyers that would put him right there even if Macias is ready to roll. Those races plus the good recent form should make him the favorite in my view, and I think he's a good play if he's not (at least to an extent somewhre in the neighborhood indicated by the morning line).

- Larry Collmus gets the call to call the Derby. Personally, I don't really have a strong opinion on the selection either way. I think he's fine, I'm sure he'll deliver a workmanlike and highly accurate call; but I don't know that he'll deliver a memorable one. Maybe I've simply heard too many race calls in my day, but I just don't get the thrills I used to when I was just learning the game, and listening to the likes of Dave Johnson, Chic Anderson, Jack E Lee, Ed Gorman, and, a bit later on, a young Tom Durkin just coming upon the scene calling the trotters at the Meadowlands, and bursting upon the scene with his classic Classic call in the first Breeders Cup. Just don't make 'em like they used to, at least to my ears.

Horse Works, Owner Rambles

Uncle Mo had his workout, and Mike Welsch, the Form's crack clocker, said that it "couldn't have been more impressive and gave every indication Uncle Mo has completely recovered from whatever problem led to his disappointing performance in the Wood."

Oh, so you mean everything is back to normal? He's a lock again?

The colt's owner, Mike Repole, took the opportunity to chide the press for spreading rumors, and scoffed at the notion that he should actually let people know exactly what's up with the horse.....even declining to confirm or deny the rumors that the horse had some kind of procedure to treat a bad leg last year.

"I never disclosed that on any of my horses. If all the other owners in the Derby disclosed the health of their horses, I'd be first in line. [NY Daily News]

---------

“I own 82 racehorses and everybody has been talking about full disclosure. I don’t think this is something the industry really wants to get into or address. Eighty-five percent of racing is claiming races. How would you disclose what’s going on (with those horses)? These are professional athletes that run 45 miles an hour and in all honesty, if you went in anyone’s barn it’s very hard to figure out who is 100% sound.
.....
“I hope this doesn’t sound rude, but if Todd Pletcher or one of my vets talk about the physical issues of any of my horses they would probably leave the barn, whether it’s Todd Pletcher, Bruce Brown or Dominick Galluscio. To me there is a confidentiality between a vet, a trainer, and an owner, and I will promise you I will never put a horse out there that is not safe, sound, and healthy.[Bloodhorse]

Whoa, touchy, touchy, Mike Repole. For one thing, with all his talk about not disclosing, that's exactly what he did when it was convenient for him! When he was trying to concoct an excuse for the colt's shockingly poor performance in the Wood. Now, with Uncle Mo seemingly on the road to recovery, Repole doesn't want to disclose any details about the horse's gastronomical condition that he brought up in the first place! Whatsmore, he's getting all indignant over the suggestion that people should know. So, maybe at this point, he should just shut up.

Repole actually makes some fair points about the claiming game, points that he's absolutely right in that the industry doesn't - and shouldn't - want the discussion. Indeed, the claiming game is to a significant degree about secrecy, gamesmanship, and, not only non-disclosure, but outright deception. That's part of what keeps the claiming game fluid, and, quite frankly, it's a large part of what makes it so much fun and challenging as a wagering puzzle as far as I'm concerned (if not so much fun and too challenging for any horses running when it shouldn't be).

But we're not talking about a claiming race here. So Repole has nothing to gain from deceiving rival owners and trainers (at least not on this particular day). No rival trainer is going to halter his horse nor alter his strategy because of something he/she may or may not know about Uncle Mo's condition. Uncle Mo is the juvenile champion off a spectacular (if brief) two-year old campaign, and has thus been the subject of intense scrutiny and anticipation in the weeks and months leading up to the Derby. He has been the presumptive betting favorite throughout the winter and spring, and may still very well be so at post time. Whether he is or not, millions of dollars will be riding on his fortunes. It might be nice if we had an idea what we were betting on, or against....and a little public disclosure wouldn't compromise his chances at all. But of course, in all of Repole's ramblings, I don't see where the subject of the public interest came up at all. Just his interest. I guess he's more concerned about preserving Uncle Mo's value as a racehorse and beyond than serving the fans and the betting public. Pretty typical. And we thought maybe this guy was different.

- The Factor is out. Before we got sidetracked on this other crap, Baffert's colt was seen as one who would make life difficult for Uncle Mo with his early speed. (It does however open the Derby door to Shackleford, who set some brisk fractions in the Florida Derby before getting caught by Dialed In.) Baffert disclosed - gasp! - that The Factor had throat surgery to address a propensity to displace his palette. Owner George Bolton said: "He’s basically miler pedigree that is good enough to go further." Well, then why would he have in any event considered running the horse in the Derby three weeks after his disappointing Arky Derby? "The right thing for The Factor is to wait and go either to Preakness, Met Mile, Woody Stephens or something like that.” Which it had become obvious would have been the right thing for the horse all along.

Close Enough

- Those who are following the NHL playoffs on Versus have surely seen the ad for the Triple Crown races that have aired frequently. "It's been 33 years since four miles turned into a miracle." We won't quibble that the races actually add up to only 3 15/16 miles in total; it's a cool, classy ad. In my view, NBC, now country cousins with Versus after its acquisition by Comcast, has always treated its racing properties with the reverence and attention that they deserve. That includes their stint with the Breeders' Cup, and the dropoff in that respect since the unfortunate switch to ESPN has been quite apparent, more glaringly with every passing year.

So, NBC will use Versus to supplement its Triple Crown coverage. It will carry the Kentucky Oaks and the Black-Eyed Susan (Friday at Belmont is just a regular day), as well as undercard races on all three days. 25 hours in all. Am I out of bounds to suggest that that's more than ESPN's entire Breeders' Cup coverage, including the Friday program and the preps, on all of its networks combined? (Or you think that adds up to more than 24 15/16 hours?)

- Hunch bets for Tuesday, April 26:

Idontgetoutmuch 9th at Charles Town
Straight Out 8th at Charles Town
Amazing Score 5th at Fairmount Park
No Such Thing 5th at Charles Town
Ended 1st at Turf Paradise
Dontflateryourself 3rd at Fairmount Park

Odds and Ends

No Derby on the horizon for Lexington winner Derby Kitten; the $120,000 winner's share leaves him well short of what would be needed to crack the top 20. One might argue that a stakes win on Polytrack for a horse whose only other win came in a maiden claimer on turf doesn't deserve to be in the race anyway, just as you might argue that a guy who didn't see fit to vote in primaries for 21 years shouldn't be running for president (he was no doubt too busy bankrupting his casinos). But I'm sure that Ken Ramsey would run the horse if he could, and why the hell not this year, really. The horse is improving and Beyered over 90; hell, that should make him a contender this year, even if he's been racing over Donald Trump's hair.

The Jerome, back, though at the Big A, after a year's hiatus, is still a Grade 2, but that's surely based on its illustrious history. For many years, it was the Labor Day feature at Belmont, run in front of 40-50,000 people, and won by the likes of....well, the list of notable names is too long to go into here. Time will tell if Adios Charlie, who earned a Beyer of 98 in his third career start, and his first against winners, will add or detract from the race's legacy. But maybe if NYRA takes some of that slots money and pumps up the purse, it can supplant the Lexington as the main last-chance shot for the Derby, since it is run on natural dirt (though only at a one turn mile for now).

- Pletcher said that Uncle Mo's appetite is "the best it's been since the Wood." But what does that mean? How bad has his appetite been, exactly? "Normally, I maybe would have worked him today, but I decided to give him a couple of more days just to continue to let the medication kick in." What kind of medication, precisely? With what possible side effects? This is really ridiculous. There's enough public money at stake here so that the stewards or the track vet should be the ones issuing medical reports, not the trainer, even if it was one with a totally clean record. But who cares about the public's money anyway?

- In the 5th at Keeneland on Saturday, Jealousofmyboogie ($6.60) was a hot number in his debut start since June, a distant 5th place finish at 11-1 at Monmouth (in a race which has now produced five subsequent winners). Son of the champion sprinter Speightstown is a half brother to the crack sprinter Diabolical, who's a son of the champion sprinter Artax.

10th race first-out winner Et Al ($25.20) is by the fine debut sire Tale of the Cat. This three-year old colt is inbred 5x5 to What A Pleasure through his sons Foolish Pleasure and Honest Pleasure; can't say I've ever seen that in a pedigree before. He's a half-brother to the grassy stakes winner New Edition; and his second dam is a half to Halory Hunter, who won the Blue Grass at the same track, though on a very, very different surface.

Keeneland Saturday

- In the 2nd at Keeneland on Saturday, Math Class (6-1) comes out of a career best effort, coming in her first two-turn try, at Turfway (following a race in which she stumbled very badly at the start and finished far back). She rallied that day to get up by a head over 1-5 favorite Sarah's Kitten. That one ran a decent third, beaten three lengths, in 40K company here; so I'm figuring that Math Class fits perfectly well at least on class in this 20K race, her first try over this course. Daughter of Eddington has gone well with today's jockey John McKee; and trainer William Connelly has been sharp in Kentucky with six straight in-the-money finishes (three wins) at Turfway and Keeneland. Proud House (6-1) was outrun in graded stakes company in her last, but prior two were front-running wins following the addition of blinkers. Without much speed in here, she could be tough to run down.

In the 6th, Senor Dehere (4-1) makes his second start off a layoff for trainer Graham Motion, struggling at this meet, but 22% in that category. Lightly raced five-year old, whose only poor effort in his four career starts came around two turns, closed well from far back for third in a five furlong turf dash at Tampa last month, and stretches out to seven furlongs here. Also gets reunited with Leparoux, who piloted him to victory in his debut, in a 5 1/2 furlong turf sprint at Saratoga last fall. Subsequent try at Keeneland at this level and distance was a curious one; sent close to the lead early, he dropped back and re-rallied for third behind two subsequent winners. Expect Senor Dehere to be running late if he sticks to his closing style here after a very sharp five furlong work over the track last week. Remember Unbridled's Heart (10-1)? Still hasn't won, in 11 tries now, since earning a 101 Beyer winning by ten at Belmont back in May, 2008; including the next four in NY at less than even money. No, don't really like him here either despite a good effort at Fair Grounds in his last, but seemed worth a mention off his ignominious past.

- Sam's Bliss, picked here on Thursday, rallied to win and paid $18.80. That was the 4th consecutive winner selected on this blog, so beware.... Best of luck and have a great day.

Thursday News and Notes

Bob Baffert seems to be a bit delirious with Derby fever too. He won't run Jaycito in the Lexington on Saturday, but still intends to start him in the Derby. This colt has a lifetime best Beyer of 88, which came in his lone win, in the Norfolk on the Cushion track at Hollywood last fall. He was, for some reason, made the favorite off that effort in his lone start as a three-year old, a distant second at Santa Anita in the San Felipe (in which he admittedly ran better than I thought he would). It would be unprecedented for a horse to win the Derby off a single start at three, and would obviously do nothing constructive towards the future of the so-called Road to the Triple Crown.

Baffert also has not ruled out starting The Factor despite his disappointing performance at Oaklawn, and said he will just let the horse wing it on the lead. We can all guess how well that is likely to work out. Perhaps Midnight Interlude is his best hope, coming off his Santa Anita Derby win with a 98 Beyer which actually makes him one of the fastest horses in the Derby field. Sure, he never raced as a two-year old, but how long do you think that "rule" is going to last?

- In the 7th at Keeneland on Thursday, Sam's Bliss (5-1) makes her local debut with a win on turf and a 444 Tomlinson number which indicates that maybe she'll like the Poly. Daughter of War Front disappointed as the favorite off a freshening in an off-the-turf affair at Fair Grounds, but lagged behind in what was a slow paced 5 1/2 furlong dash. Prior was a fine second in her first against winners close behind Wicked Deed, who then won a four horse overnight stakes; and ahead of Lovenotlost, who has since won three in a row including two restricted FG stakes. (4th place finisher Sotogenic also won a stakes in her next race, albeit a restricted one at Evangeline in a 56 Beyer [albeit against males]). Sam's Bliss also switches back to jockey Miguel Mena, who rode her in that good second as well as in her maiden win on grass. Erma Lee (8-1) graduated in a seven furlong turf race at Belmont last fall and has some nice local works for her Poly debut. Salty Strike (2-1) was a close third in a G3 stakes last year, but we know just much graded stakes status means in two-year old races in June these days. Seems a likely underlay in her first try on a non-dirt surface.

The G3 Appalachian (8th race), on grass for three-year old fillies, marks the return of Winter Memories (9-5), second in the BC Juvie Fillies Turf at even money. She's likely to get bet down in that vicinity here. Never know how a filly will return at age three, and with a couple of other impressive juveniles, New Normal (8-1) and Ruthenia (6-1), also making their sophomore debuts and, in the case of the latter, getting stuck on the outside, let's take a shot with a couple of fillies with recent form. Gotta love the way Diva Ash (12-1) handled both facing winners and stretching out to a route for the first time in her second career effort, at Gulfstream, last month. She was forced to swing a good 4-5 wide around the turn for home, and rallied strongly to miss by just a length to Naples Bay, a two-for-two $350K daughter of Giant's Causeway who would likely be second choice here. Daughter of Tapit, out of a Boundary mare, has a bunch of grassy stakes winners in her distaff family, including Bakharoff, a European juvenile champion. Desormeaux wins at a 23% clip for trainer Dale Romans. Smart Sting (5-1) rallied smartly at Gulfstream last month to win in her first try against winners, off a layoff for Roger Attfield (no surprise there). Daughter of Smart Strike is out of the champion grass mare Perfect Sting.

- And yes, it's late....or rather early Thursday morning, having gotten home late after watching the Rangers blow a 3-0 third period lead and succumb to the Caps in double OT. (So please excuse any typos in this post.) Don't really understand, nor ever want to know, exactly how that puck went in. Sure looked like it got a lot of help from the home team. The Blueshirts now trail 3 games to 1 with their second OT loss of the series. Hopefully, this resilient young team can bounce back better than I, as they have done all year.

No Mo Appetite

Uncle Mo is at Churchill, and Pletcher said "I think he’s in the same position every horse in this race is in.” That would mean that there are a lot of horses that are sick to their stomachs.

"Obviously when you have a gastrointestinal tract infection, you’re appetite is not going to be as good as you’d like for it to be." [Courier Journal (or any other of like 100 other outlets who dutifully regurgitate the same quotes as everyone else]]

Am I missing something here? After a horse comes out of a race, how many times do you hear the trainer comment on how it "ate up" right afterward, a signal that the horse came out of the race good and is ready to proceed to its next target. This horse came out of his last race sick, and more than a week later, and just 19 days before the Derby (or 17 days if you're reading the Times Union), the trainer is telling us that his appetite isn't so good. Seriously, this horse is still under consideration for a grueling mile and a quarter race against 19 others who are presumably feeling, and eating, their oats? I just don't get it.

- The Associated Press composite Derby Top Ten has a top three of Dialed In, Mucho Macho Man, and Toby's Corner. Personally, if the odds were fair, I'd be more than willing to bet that none of those finishes in the money; and, in return for just a little sweetening, additionally that neither Mucho Macho Man nor Toby's Corner finish in the top ten. Though, other than the top two finishers in the Arkansas Derby, I might be hard pressed to tell you who I like instead. But I do have 17 or 19 days to decide.

Hunch Bets for Tuesday, April 19

Flat Out Rich 4th at Indiana Downs
Afterfurtherreview 1st at Mountaineer
Coming Of Age 3rd at Parx
Lesson In Deceit 6th at Turf Paradise
Yes I Am American 2nd at Penn National
Seeking Bud 2nd at Will Rogers Downs
She Wears It Well 7th at Penn National

Meadowlands Hangs by a Thread

Jeff Gural says that it's "even money" that the Meadowlands survives, even after the tellers' union refused to even vote on whether to accept the 20% pay cut that he's insisted upon; and which two other unions have already accepted.

"Common sense says that they will change their minds," he said.
.....
Gural also wondered if the clerks were not fully aware of what their decision meant. It is possible, he said, that some felt they would still be able to work at the Meadowlands taking bets on simulcast races only. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie shot down that notion when announcing that the track would close for all forms of wagering May 12. [Harness Racing Update]

The governor doesn't mess around, as we know. But it seems as if he's gotten a bit carried away with his trademark tough talk lately. He drew fire for calling the leaders of the teachers unions "political thugs" (takes one to know one I suppose). And he told reporters that they should "take a bat out on" a widowed 76-year old lawmaker who has started collecting her pension even as she still holds her job.

Democratic state Sen. Loretta Weinberg, a widow, said she was forced to begin collecting her pension after her financial advisor invested all her savings in Bernie Madoff's ponzi scheme. [Crooks and Liars]

Of course, it's clear that the governor did not intend to be taken literally; but he can't be surprised that his opponents would seize on any opportunity to pounce as his belligerence and cockiness starts to get out of hand. Perhaps the results of this poll will cause him to be a bit more humble. Or, maybe not.

- Since the closing of NYC OTB, the NY State Racing and Wagering Board has managed to quickly do away with some archaic laws that have hindered NYRA for years - the prohibitions on their ability to livestream their races and accept wagers after 7:30 PM for example. But the Palm Sunday dark day lives on. Bad enough there's no live racing; but the NYRA Rewards site was completely shut down too. And with an otherwise full day of racing around the country, who knows how much virtually free money went by the boards, for NYRA, the horsemen, and the state.

Another Derby Favorite Gets Trumped

After Saturday's Arkansas Derby demise of The Factor, The Donald has now been tabbed as the "preliminary" morning line favorite for the Derby by Churchill Downs' oddsmaker Mike Battaglia. Donald Trump immediately demanded to see the birth certificates of the other contenders to confirm that they are all three-years old. Like him.

Yeah, that's silly, I know, but why not....can anyone possibly guess who will be the favorite at Churchill in three weeks time? Uncle Mo and his questionable gastrointestinal tract? Dialed In off his desperate Florida Derby win over a 68-1 longshot? Either of those would be tentative choices at best in my view. Why not at this point the sure-to-be wise guy horse Nehro, who closed fastest of all and, given the buzz he'd already earned with his second in the Louisiana Derby, was quite possibly the biggest winner of the weekend even though he didn't win (nor get a call until the race was over)?

Like Uncle Mo, The Factor in fact also apparently has a medical excuse. For heaven's sake, here we go again....

“When they sent hard and then they squeezed him down on the rail [Martin] had to grab him,” Baffert said. “I think he displaced [his palate]. They’ll displace if you grab them too hard. So he came back, and all the sudden you could hear him, the breathing, gurgling up.” [Daily Racing Form]

But watching the race again, I'm really not sure exactly where The Factor had the kind of incident that the trainer refers to. He was cleanly outsprinted by 33-1 J P's Gusto before 29-1 Dance City ranged up and edged ahead of him approaching the first turn. And while that one did appear to force the favorite toward the rail, I don't see him taken up in any manner in the way Baffert describes. Besides, does anyone believe that the horse had any shot once it was clear he was being taken out of his game? Shows the hazard of betting on any pure speed horse in the Derby, when you know that it's not going to be alone winging out there early. Methinks that we won't be seeing The Factor in the Derby anyhow.

Archarcharch ($52.40) had an excuse of his own for his third place finish in the Rebel, when he was kicked in the legs by a horse in the adjoining stall. Whatsmore, he also was said to have been injured when he ran 4th in the Smarty Jones. If you buy that, then this horse has never run a poor race. What was most impressive to me on Saturday is that he showed a new dimension, closing from far back for the first time after breaking from an outside post. We certainly like a horse that demonstrates that kind of tractability going into the big race. Archarcharch ia a son of Arch (sire of Blame), out of a Woodman mare, with inbreeding to Northern Dancer, Raise A Native, and Nashua. Nice dosage (1.73), and a bunch of Euro stakes winners in the female family. If this horse goes off at higher odds than Nehro, then I think he would have to be the bet between those two on value, if nothing else.

Nehro comes in over the mythical 4.0 dosage standard for the Derby; though there seems nothing wrong stamina-wise for a son of Mineshaft out of an Afleet mare. His half brother and sister Saint Marden and Sweet Lips both won modest two turn stakes races.

The Blue Grass once again proved inconsequential as far as the Derby goes, but we more or less knew that going into the race, didn't we? That doesn't necessarily make it a "bad" race. It's a graded stakes for three-year olds on Polytrack and the centerpiece of the prestigious Keeneland spring meet that still attracts a large and lively field. It is what it is, and it was a lot of fun to handicap and to watch...especially if you had, in any denomination, the superfecta which paid at the rate of over $129,000 per $2 bet.....and produced a thrilling flying finish in a final furlong of 11.69 for Brilliant Speed ($40.20). That was a way overlaid win price for a 6-1 morning line who really had as much of a right to win the race as anyone.

Brilliant Speed is a son of Dynaformer, the sire of course of the Derby winner Barbaro, out of a Gone West mare who's a half-sister to the graded stakes (on dirt) winner Serenading. His second dam is a half to the Belmont winner Touch Gold, and to With Approval, whose surface versatility Brilliant Speed will try to replicate. Go back a little further on his distaff side, and you'll find accomplished dirt horses such as Haynesfield, Healthy Addiction, and Izvestia (another turf and dirt star). He may have only gotten an 87 Beyer for his Blue Grass win, but he's legitimately earned his way in, and breeding-wise at least, he has as much of a shot as anyone in this fractured Derby year.

- Interesting tote scenario in the finale at Keeneland yesterday. Off-the-layoff ace Roger Attfield had two returnees, and Perfect Shirl seemed to have an edge on No Explaining based on the former's defeat of the latter in the Lake George last summer and her subsequent third in the G1 Del Mar Oaks. Thus, Perfect Shirl was rated at 7-2 in the morning line while No Explaining was third choice in the race at 4-1. Yet it was No Explaining who went off as the 5-2 favorite, and she justified that faith with a neck win in her first race since last October.

The Poop On Uncle Mo

Here's an artist's rendition I just happen to have of Uncle Mo's gastrointestinal tract when it was pink and perfect, just before he won the Juvenile last year.




Now, with the news that the juvenile champ is (was? is and was?) suffering from a gastrointestinal infection, I imagine it must be a miserable twisted mess. Kinda like this.





This reader is absolutely right. I think I'm pretty agile with the Racing Form; but I don't know sh-- (oh, my mom's reading)...the first thing about equine gastrointestinal tract infections, how they might affect a horse's performance, whether they can be treated with a little Tums or require powerful antibiotics that can sap a horse's energy and spirit, or how long it would take to recover. And, in any event, we don't really know if he had one, or has one, or at what stage it is, or was, whether it's just a little tummy ache or a full-blown case of colic, whatever exactly that is, I really don't know. I mean, I just bet on these animals, and I assume that they're in a reasonable state of good health when I do so, otherwise they wouldn't be running. Right?

So, when Mike Repole, a respected businessman turned horseman, tells us quite definitively that this indeed explains why the horse ran like crap (no pun intended) in the Wood; and a five-time Eclipse Award winning trainer says that "The vets also concluded that Uncle Mo is perfectly capable of returning to full training while the treatment continues," who am I to question it, even if that sounds like it was written by Uncle Mo's publicist.

Of course and unfortunately, Pletcher has a bit of a credibility problem these days after expressing no qualms to Jay Privman about Life At Ten's readiness for the Breeders Cup with around ten minutes to post, until the reporter later hunted him down after his jockey told a national TV audience otherwise. I like the Toddster, but it only takes one such incident to forever tarnish a reputation, whether it's Colin Powell's photos of mobile chemical weapon labs in Iraq, Mark McGwire taking the Fifth (a more applicable example in this case than Barry Bonds, who has been living a lie for the better part of a decade), or Bill Clinton not having sexual relations with that woman (well, I guess some people can recover).

So I did a little research on the internet about the equine gastrointestinal tract, but didn't really find much written that was understandable to the layman, or that I had the patience to digest (sorry). But I did find this, which made me think about renouncing the game altogether and joining PETA.

In the wild, horses have little to do but eat, stay out of the way of predators, and procreate. This means they range across the countryside, selecting immature forages that are easy to digest. They graze as they roam, consuming small amounts of food throughout the day and even at night. Under this scenario, there are few digestive problems.

However, man has altered Nature's scheme. First, he often adds workloads that require more than just grass to provide the necessary nutrition. Second, in many cases, all choices have been taken from the horse. He no longer roams at will, picking out choice spots for grazing. Instead, he is confined to pastures or paddocks where there might be little to choose from in the way of food. He eats what is there or is provided by his caretakers.

Because his owners or caretakers often have busy schedules, the horse no longer is able to eat small amounts frequently. Instead, he usually is fed a large quantity of food, and that sometimes occurs only once each day.

What all this adds up to is an assault on the horse's digestive system that it typically can't handle, and problems such as colic and founder can be the result. [Riverside Recreational Trails (which I hope doesn't depend on financing from the state of California)]

No wonder his stomach is all f--- (damn!)...messed up.

While the headline in the original story in the Form that was posted here earlier said that Uncle Mo was still headed to Kentucky Derby, later reports frame the matter in a far more questionable light.

Personally, I have a little mixed feelings here. On one hand, man, I'm still dying to bet against this horse in the Derby, especially if the public is going to buy this story, whether it has any real validity or not. However, I think that Mike Repole would be doing the sport, and probably the horse (as little as I might know about exactly what's ailing him), a big favor by putting his understandable Derby aspirations aside and putting an end to this fiasco right now. Tell us that the horse is being pointed for the Preakness, please. We don't need to spend the next three weeks having this kind of uncertainty dominating the Derby news. Heaven forbid anything would happen to him in the course of training for, or running in the race, the industry, still not quite recovered from Eight Belles, would be sent reeling.

And of course, it's just not fair to the betting public. We're not going to be privy to the details of the vet reports (not that many of us would understand it anyway), we won't see pictures of his colonoscopy; we'll only be told "the horse is doing fine" by the trainer with the credibility problem, and we'll be left merely guessing about the biggest race of the year. And, if we are told he's OK and he runs poorly for whatever reason, we, and the many thousands of people who make this race their once-a-year racing and betting event, will think that this sport and everyone in it is just plain full of shit. (Sorry mom.)

Uncle Schmo

I don't have a problem with a horse tiring in its last prep for a big race, especially a guy like Uncle Mo, who would figure to greatly benefit from the race conditioning given that he hadn't done a whole helluva lot for the last several months. I'm disappointed that he lost, though only because I wanted to bet against him as a big favorite in the Derby; but, being the contrarian that I aspire to be, maybe I'd turn around and bet on him if goes off at 6-1 or something like that. (He's 7-1 at Wynn. I can't even venture a guess as to how he'll be treated on the tote, which has offered up some big surprises on Derby day the last few years.)

But it's the way he gave up the lead so feebly, without any resistance at all, that made the race so astounding. I mean, it's not like he ran fast and then tired. He set a very moderate pace to the 3/4's, and actually slowed down from there - nearly 25 seconds to the mile. You'd think that a champion colt would at least be able to re-break and show some fight. The thing is, his championship was built on brilliance and dominance, and he never had to pass a real test until now. Oh man, did he fail. Pletcher feebly offered the fact that he grabbed a quarter at the start, but even he didn't sound the least bit convinced that that had much to do with the result, calling it "very minor and insignificant." He told reporters that the colt would have the standard blood work "when we have a horse that doesn't perform to our expectations." Would you blame the more cynical amongst us if they told you to expect the announcement of some relatively benign but career-ending injury (one which of course wouldn't prevent him from rearing up from behind a mare).

Tom Durkin immediately compared the outcome to Secretariat's defeat to Angle Light in 1973. The main difference there was that Secretariat was making his - get this - 12th career start in the Wood, nine of those as a two-year old. Maybe if Uncle Mo had nearly that kind of foundation, he would have handled this ordinary field even on a bad day. And the two (at least....Baffert says he'll carry on with Jaycito) injury-caused defections from the Derby trail this past weekend continues to highlight that whatever breeders and trainers are doing in this era of far less racing at two, just ain't working.

But it was a real shocker - far more so even than the turn of events that put the Rangers into the playoffs. Though you wouldn't have known that from reading Joe Drape's account of the race in the Times the next day. Surprise Contender for Kentucky Derby Bursts Out of Pack to Win Wood Memorial, read the headline, and there were just two short paragraphs devoted to the juvenile champ (who, if you didn't know, you'd never have guessed from reading the piece that he was a beaten 1-9 shot). Just seemed like really odd reporting (though Drape focused on Uncle Mo in an article the next day). I know that it's natural to write about the winner; but the winner clearly wasn't the story here.

Toby's Corner ran a nice race, earning an easily career-best, though still moderate, Beyer of 94 in his first race with blinkers. But it was a slowly run race - oddly-so in that 4th quarter - which allowed him and Arthur's Tale, an even more middling horse, to stay well within striking distance without running that hard at any point. Neither of them came close to cracking the 24 second mark for any quarter in the race, and they even slowed markedly down from 3/4s to a mile. (Makes one wonder if that clocking was even correct.) That surely helped the winner and runner-up close in around 12 seconds flat. Toby's Corner will have to do a lot more running to stay in touch at Churchill, and I don't consider him to be a legitimate Derby contender at all.

Big A Saturday

The G3 Comely, the 7th at the Big A at a mile on the main track, is a ponderous one. Only one of the seven fillies have experience at a one-turn route distance; and that one ran poorly in her only such try. Morning line favorite Ava K (5-2) is undefeated in three dominant efforts at minuscule odds against state-bred company. She's been plenty good, has run fast enough for this race, and she's beaten some decent horses, including Midnight Visit, who went on to win another state-bred stakes. The Comely may be a graded stakes race in name only; but the jump to open company against a few fillies who have shown enough to indicate improvement potential seems like a good enough reason to take a shot against.

Hot Summer (5-1) is the filly who faltered at this one-turn mile, but she surely had excuses. In her first race in three months, for trainer David Fawkes, she found herself on the lead and intently pursued by Pomeroys Pistol, a Grade 2 winner making her third start [of the year] who would surely be favored here. She faded badly to 5th (15 lengths behind subsequent GP Oaks winner R Heat Lightning), and it's fair I think if you deduce that the stretch out to a mile was beyond her ability. But I'd give her another shot, in the hope that she's ridden more patiently as she was last year; and because of a highly unusual pedigree with plenty of distance influence. By Malibu Moon, out of a Quiet American mare, Hot Summer is very closely inbred, 2x3, to the half-brothers AP Indy and Summer Squall; and she's also inbred 5x5 to Buckpasser. She also traces directly back to the influential broodmare Toll Booth, her 4th dam and the dam of Plugged Nickel, a personal favorite back in the day. Luiz Saez is in for the ride; and to ride Apriority in the Carter for the barn, for which he hits at 27%.

Her Smile (3-1) is a highly consistent daughter of Include who has steadily improved; her close third in the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay was behind two good fillies in Wyomia and Devilish Lady. Royal Sighting (5-1) buried a weak maiden field; prior was a neck loss to R Holiday Mood, a subsequent overnight stakes winner who's 7-2 morning line here. Daughter of Rahy has moved up sharply since trainer Pat Kelly added blinkers three starts back.

In the Bay Shore, the 8th race, J J's Lucky Train (3-1) has trained brilliantly since a grueling effort at this 7f distance in a career high 97 Beyer that you might figure would have taken something out of him. He went head and head around the turn and down the stretch from the outside with Bandbox, who furthermore floated him four wide on the turn. That colt is a neck away from being unbeaten in his five sprinting efforts, and came back to win the Private Terms. Two bullet five furlong breezes indicate that J J's Lucky Train is none the worse for the wear. May have found his real comfort zone sprinting, and just a repeat of his last effort should get him home here. Vengeful Wildcat (4-1) may have been a short horse tiring late in the Capossella, and will have to contend with added distance here. Smoke It Right (6-1) ships in from unbeaten in four races at Oaklawn, Delta, and Evangeline, with moderate Beyers. Test for class in this spot.

- I was at a yoga class the other day, and the teacher recited excerpts of a lovely and wise poem called Desiderata, by Max Ehrmann and written in 1952; a portion of which reads as follows:

Speak your truth quietly and clearly;
and listen to others,
even the dull and the ignorant;
they too have their story.

Actually, as much as I might try to see virtue in all of my fellow man, I might have to disagree with the poet in this case; at least as pertains to some of the dull and ignorant who have been polluting the comments section here with juvenile trash. Accordingly, I've turned on the moderation function for now. Seems kinda unfair because now I'm the only one who will have to see this crap, but I'll spare you for now. Best of luck, and have a great day.

Lots of Support for Wood

A dismal 3-0 loss at home to the out-of-it Atlanta Thrashers has left the Rangers' playoff hopes in ruins, dependent now on events out of their control. And even if they get the help that they need to regain control of their own fate, the chances of them beating a fired-up Devils squad surely seems questionable after this performance. They look like a team that may have run out of gas after being all out to hang on for much of the season. All those blocked shots and hits (both of which means that they don't have the puck) surely has to take its toll at some point.

Still, I'll be at the Garden for the finale on Saturday afternoon, and therefore not at the Big (But Not Big Enough) A for the Wood. Wrote last week that I wouldn't go anyway given what promises to be claustrophobic conditions there. However, between the admission charge for the Equestris level which could provide a safe haven, and what looks like a fine supporting card, might have changed my mind.

A couple of readers complained about the fact that the big day of the spring meeting includes three $7500 claimers. But, compared to what we've been seeing around here lately as the winter drags on and on and on like the budget talks, those three claiming events actually seem pretty damn good - full fields and extremely competitive (at least according to the morning line, haven't scoped them out yet).

Also, I tend to cringe when I hear NYRA advertise four graded stakes!, because that often means a parade of short fields and short odds. But on Saturday, the three supporting stakes races - the Comely, Bay Shore, and Carter - all look like extremely lively wagering propositions. I should be home by 4, definitely looking forward to checking those out.

As far as the Wood goes, looks like another public workout for Uncle Mo (1-5) after the Timely Writer, in which he earned a Beyer of 89 which is surely good enough to win this race as well. One might think that they would want to actually try and seek out some better competition to give him a stiff race for his conditioning, and to gain some hard racing experience. Of course, it's not the connection's fault if the horse is so great they can't find any competition even if they wanted some. Maybe if they had declared for in the Florida Derby instead, all those horses would have come up here to avoid him. (Besides, that race didn't turn out to be so great anyway.)

But still, this just seems fucking crazy, the idea that you can prepare a horse for the Kentucky Derby like this. Maybe it's just the case that he's so totally superior in talent that he will indeed be able to just waltz in and dominate 19 horses at a distance he's never run, in what will likely be his first race against meaningful competition since the Breeders Cup last fall. Unless everything falls his way - never a guarantee in the Derby - I think he'll have to be that much better to win. I'll be betting that he's not.

Not Quite A Locomotive, But...

Joe Drape reported in the Times that Nick Zito was in tears as [Dialed In] got a head in front of the long shot Shackleford at the wire of the Florida Derby. At first, I thought maybe he was crying because his colt needed nearly every step of the homestretch to just inch by an exhausted 68-1 shot who took nearly 14 seconds to get the final furlong.

But no.

He was thinking of Strike the Gold, a colt with a similar from-the-clouds style who gave Zito his first Kentucky Derby victory 20 years ago. “Horses just don’t do what he’s done,” Zito said in his signature raspy-voiced fuhgeddaboudit tone. [NYT]

Sounds like kind of a Mrs. Genter moment, though of course there were no national TV cameras anywhere within sight. Can't blame Nick for being excited, and Strike the Gold seems a fair comparison, in terms of running style at the very least. (Strike the Gold ran second, to Fly So Free (and ahead of 3rd place Hansel) in the Florida Derby, and then won the Blue Grass on his way to the Derby, his 5th race of that year.)

I don't know however if I would quite say, as Drape wrote, that Dialed In powered down the stretch like a locomotive. 13.09 seconds for the last furlong is pretty OK, but not in the locomotive category; last 3/8ths in 38.24 is maybe more like the R train on the local track in Queens during the evening rush.

There's rarely much nuance in mainstream reporting of horse racing. From reading Drape's piece, one might think this was a Secretariat-type performance against an all-star field. In fact, he struggled to get by a spent front-runner in a race which, more than falling apart, never really came together. There were highly disappointing efforts by favored Soldat, Stay Thirsty, and even in my opinion, To Honor and Serve, ponderously ridden by Gomez, and a horse who to me is one that has not at all followed through on his two-year old form; never a good sign, no matter what Mott says about being happy with the race. Dialed In earned a Beyer of 93, a good 6-8 points lower than one might like to see from him at this point.

Having said all that though, I do really like the horse, picked him here, and consider him to be a legitimate contender at Churchill. He ran some quick middle fractions (23.31 and 23.63) to keep close, which could explain the mediocre come-home time (and suggest that Leparoux could have been even more patient). And, most importantly, remember that this was only his 4th career race, so he presumably has plenty of room for further improvement under the care of a trainer who has surely shown that he knows how to get them ready for a particular, and particularly, big race.

- Oh baby!



The Rangers' incredible comeback win against a solid Bruins' squad, their second victory in two days over two of the top teams in the East, reduced their magic number to clinch a playoff spot to three points - either earned by New York in their last two games, or not by Carolina in their last three. All of us Blueshirt fans fervently hope that a playoff spot is in hand before the terrifying matchup with the Devils in the final game of the season on Saturday afternoon.