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Friday, June 08, 2007

Walter on the Radio

- Our buddy Walter will be on the radio later today to discuss the Belmont. It's the Leroy's Sports Hour, and you can listen at American Wagering, from 5-6PM Eastern time, and in the archives if you miss it live. Follow the Leroy's links on the left sidebar.

- Here's an interesting note from the Louisville Courier-Journal's blog that I hadn't seen before: it seems as if it's been since 1918 that a horse who hadn't raced at two has won the Belmont. Whatsmore: Curlin would be the first unraced 2-year-old to win the Belmont at 1-1/2 miles since Tyrant in 1885.

- I think Bordonaro looks vulnerable as the 8-5 morning line favorite in the True North Handicap, just as I, correctly as it turned out, thought he was in the BC Sprint last fall. He needs the lead, and I don't think he's going to have it, at least not without a major tussle from Keyed Entry. It's interesting, I'm looking at the Moss Pace Figures for the race, and they indicate that the six-year old gelded son of Memo isn't actually all that quick early, especially in his two well-spaced races this year. According to Moss' numbers, Pletcher's colt should be all over Bordonaro in the first quarter mile, and the cutback to six furlongs could be the key (sorry) for the former to hang on. Council Member figures to take some action for Godolphin off a nice winning debut here; but note that it was achieved over only four rivals, including the faltering Kazoo, who was being offered for the optional $75k tag. I prefer Dashboard Drummer as the one to possibly come off the pace and get into the exacta with Keyed Entry, thus creating a little value; and perhaps upsetting if the pace is too fast. This gelding has improved markedly since being claimed for $55K by Dove Houghton, a 27% trainer out of town, most recently running second with a 103 Beyer to Songster in the G3 Bold Ruler.

In the 4th, Smoky Chimney is listed at 8-5 coming off a 7 length win in maiden state-bred company with a field-high Beyer. But here's a couple of longshots that caught my attention. Bird of Play (10-1) has improved his Beyers with each start, and has already been competitive in this entry level state-bred allowance company that the favorite is aspiring to. He made a big wide move on the turn into some legitimate fractions, and understandably tired to 4th; switches to Channing Hill, who was on board for his graduation. And Conduct of Honour (20-1) was 66-1 when he swept a maiden field to win his first start, but it may have been no fluke. He just flew past the field, and that was after running some quick internal fractions just to catch up. Trainer Gregg Matties is sharp at the meeting so far at 9-2-2-2. And the third place finisher, Stolen Forest, was 45-1 that day, and came back to graduate next time out. So perhaps the odds were just off in that race.

5 Comments:

Anonymous said...

Will be at the ball park all day tomorrow so I got my bets in today. Figured I would post them for what they are worth-prob. not much! Byanose

Bel 6th- ex. 5/2-3
P3 5/5/2-5-8

Bel 8th Ex. 2/5-8
Ex 5/2-8
P4 2-5-8/4/1-3-5-7/2-3-6
p4 2-5/4/3/2-3-6

Bel 9th ex. 4/1-3

Bel 10th ex. 3/1-5-7

Bel. 11th $20.00 WPS 2
$10.00 ex. 2/3-6-7
$10.00 tri. 2/3/6-7
$10.00 tri. 2/6/3-7

alan said...

Going to see the Rocket are you? Hayward said he was worried about that..

Anonymous said...

wow-I wish, no-just little league games to watch my son. Good luck tomorrow. Byanose

Walter said...

I'm sorry, guys. I mentioned to the host before the show that i wanted to give Left at the Gate a nice plug, so i thought he'd ask me if there were any other sites i post on. Dude never brought it up. Truth be told however, it really felt like we were pressed for time. There were several points i wanted to make about the various horses, and it seemed like before i could open my mouth, we were already onto the next horse. That's radio, i guess. I felt a little nervous at the beginning, but i think i loosened up a little as we went along.

Regarding the race, basically i just tried to emphasize that i expect Hard Spun to run very well. Curlin looks tough to beat, but he's no lock in this spot and i don't think he'll even approach a bettable price. I do expect the filly to run well also, but i think she'll be overbet in relation to her chance of winning. I make her 9/2 to pull it off, and i don't see any way she'll go off that high. I make Hard Spun 4/1, and he seems most likely to reach his target number between the Top 3. Curlin i make 7/5, btw. Of course, the target number only represents EQUAL value, not "value" per se. Unless Hard Spun somehow reaches 5/1, i think i'll be sitting this one out. I did want to mention Come Fly Away, who goes in Race 2 on the Belmont undercard. She's a nice filly with a big turn of foot, and i expect her to run very well. Stretches out to a mile here, and Hushion shows good numbers with that type. 8/1 on the morning line, and definitely worth a look.

jeff said...

I thought you came across well, Walter, once the guy actually let you start talking about the horses instead of the preliminary stuff. Like you and the other guy (Captain Video, or something like that), I think Curlin is tough to beat here, and it's just a question of what odds we'll get. I think you mentioned 7-5 as fair value, which I'm prepared to take if the filly draws enough $ to drive up Curlin's price. Ordinarily I'd just pass on the race, but I just can't shake the Curlin-Touch Gold feeling, and expect Curlin to run big tomorrow.