Gut Feelings

- A recently published book entitled "Gut Feelings," by German psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer, discusses the notion of Less (Information) Is More when it comes to making important decisions. In his Mind Matters column in Newsweek, Wray Herbert writes that the book collects a convincing body of evidence for the power of hunches over laborious data crunching.

Hunches, gut feelings, intuition — these are all colloquial English for what Gigerenzer and his colleagues call "heuristics," fast and efficient cognitive shortcuts that (according to the emerging theory) can help us negotiate life, if we let them.

Of course, this book deals with "life decisions," y'know, really important stuff dealing with careers, where to live, and with whom or what. The Pick Four can be pretty intense, but it's not quite as profound (at least I hope not), though it certainly can seem that way at times.

Still, I think we can learn something from the subject matter given the advances in the quality, diversity, availability and presentation of racing data with which to handicap nowadays. The matter of how much information is too much is one that I've often pondered in the last few years, and I suppose that I've yet to settle on a proper balance. Mr. Herbert continues:

Consider the "take the best" heuristic. "Take the best" means that you reason and calculate only as much as you absolutely have to; then you stop and do something else.

[In our case, something else means moving on to the next race instead of obsessing unproductively on a single one.]

So, for example, if there are 10 pieces of information that you might weigh in a thorough decision, but one piece of information is clearly more important than the others, then that one piece of information is often enough to make a choice. You don't need the rest; other details just complicate things and waste time. [Newsweek]

I think that one needs more than one piece of information to properly handicap a race. But do you really need more than one tool, that being the Daily Racing Form, the track program, or, for some, The Sheets? Therein, with the Form being my clear preference, is all the information which, for many years, was way more than sufficient to cash tickets consistently. It contained everything one needed to make reasoned decisions regarding the basics of class, speed, and pace. Or so it seemed at the time.

I certainly don't mean to speak for all of you when I say that I don't feel as if I have more winners now, utilizing all of the various resources, than I did back when I had only the Form, and often couldn't get it in advance. I certainly have different winners now. Many horses that I had in the past, I would never have them now, and vice versa.

The closest I come now to finding the right balance between old school handicapping and modern technology is when I find the discipline to initially handicap the races strictly from the Form, noting my top three selections. Only after doing so do I then delve into Formulator, pedigrees, and replays, and then, only for those top selections. I find that the extra information quite often ends up serving mainly as a reinforcement of my original opinion - my original gut feeling and initial impression based on the knowledge and instincts I've gained over 35+ years of horseplaying. And the additional resources help to distinguish the horses I like from the horses I like. Perhaps most importantly, I don't waste time - the one necessary tool I find to be in short supply - getting bogged down on details of horses I've eliminated on the basics, sticking to the fundamentals that have made me the handicapper I am today (literate and witty *ahem* if nothing else. :)

Steve Davidowitz covers similar ground in Game still the same, his latest entry in the subscription-only DRF Plus section of the Form.

In the old days, good handicappers did not have all the advantages you and I possess in the 21st century. But the game has not changed as much as most people believe. Horses with subtle advantages can be strong contenders. Sometimes they may be slightly fastest or the one most likely to outbreak the field. Sometimes they may be the classiest horse or the most consistent, and sometimes they will combine those elements or possess a subtle pace edge that can trump all three. When to use what element is the secret of handicapping and to uncover that formula requires the best tool you will ever come across.

It is not found in your computer; it is not in any of the good books out there; and it is not on any website. Just as in the 1960s, the best handicapping tool you will ever need is located in a space you cannot see - right smack dab between your ears.