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Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Heading South

- It's supposed to snow and sleet around these parts on Thursday, so chances are there won't be racing at the Big A. NYRA will sometimes cancel early if the forecast is grim, thereby sparing fans the inconvenience and saving a few bucks.

So let's head south to Calder for the 8th race. I know I wrote that until I finally pick a winner on this blog, I'd avoid picking maiden winners moving into allowance company. Nonetheless, I like Euro Silver Jet (5-1), moving into allowance company after graduating in his second start, and his first on a fast track, for trainer Stephen L DiMauro. What you don't see in the pp's is the way he dropped a good length or two off the lead around the turn, switched to the outside, and came back gamely for the win while zig-zagging a bit through the lane. Second place finisher Two Double ran a close second in his next race. Euro Silver Jet, a half brother to seven winners including juvenile stakes winner Hyte Regency, has had over four weeks to recover, and comes into this race with an identical workout pattern of a bullet half followed by a half mile breeze six days afterwards. Jockey Manoel Cruz has won 38% of the time (13 for 34) for the barn at this track over the last five years.

There you go, that's my best shot..

- Jay Cronley, writing on, has some Christmas presents for us. They're in the form of some advice to help keep us all from losing.

If you let the odds chase you off a horse, or pull you onto one, you lose.

It's 25-1, must not be any good.

It's 3-1, must be ready.

Hang on, take a moment to look who is betting, it's a large group of people much dumber than you are.
This is something that I need to keep in mind, particularly regarding the longshots. (I'm a hopeless case when it comes to seeing the hot money come in.) It's not that I think that all 25-1 shots are no good; just the ones that look as if they should be significantly lower. However, and certainly with no offense to the readers of this site, good point there about taking that moment to look around.
If you don't get to know small tracks, you lose.

Numerous races, only three horses can win, and one is frequently 15-1 or better.

Better still, small tracks attract handicappers worse than the horses.
That's a frequent theme of the writer, and one that I've yet to find the will to fully explore. Growing up betting the ponies in New York has made me spoiled, what can I say.

My favorite of Cronley's goodies is this:
If you don't bet a tip, you lose.

What's two bucks among friends.

It's good karma. []


Anonymous said...

Alan, this is your conscience speaking, DONT DO IT!

One of my golden rules of KISS, don't play a horse first time versus winners!

Would lean toward the 6 turning back in distance and the 2 adding blinkers, love both angles on two year olds.

Good luck regardless:)

alan said...

Dear Conscience,

My mother always told me I should listen to you..