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Monday, December 17, 2007

Monday Night Notes

- I'd mentioned Monday's 4th at Calder, and what a race that turned out to be; worth checking out if you can (replays available at Calder's website, if you register for free). Neither Two Double nor Hall of Famer would budge an inch in a stretch-long duel. Stride for stride at the sixteenth pole, you can barely make out that there were two horses. Hall of Famer got the nod, and I think he may have kept a bare nose in front for most if not all of the drive. He's the Clement first-timer by Grand Slam, and that makes ten winners for his dam Quimper, at least according to the Form's sibling summary. Pedigree Query lists eleven, including Hall of Famer. Either way, that's a lot of production.

The winner paid $16.60, and it's not too unusual for Clement to pop one at a nice price. You may recall he had Megadeed at 12-1 at the Big A in November. Pletcher's first-timer Sir Dynamite, 3-1 morning line for Stonestreet, was nearly 8-1 at post time, and trailed throughout after a sluggish start. I dunno, maybe it's just me, but I think it's valuable handicapping information when you see this horse the next time with the 7.90 odds in the running line, to know that his morning line was 3-1. I asked about morning lines in the pp's on Crist's blog, and he dissed me big time. I know I probably take the tote board too seriously. But I think his being 7.90 to 1 means something different if he was 3-1 morning line (making him cold stone dead on the board) as opposed to if he was 10-1.

7 Comments:

oxymoron25 said...

Please dont take this the wrong way but how in the hell can they have morning lines on a first time starter. Yeah I know you can base it on the trainer breeding maybe even the workouts, but I would guess if you took a sample of Pletchers firsters I would be willing to bet they are usally very low on the morning line. First of all its the Toddster and he hits with a good percentage of firsters and he has the stock. Most of the time they are bet so I would agree if the horse is not getting bet your notion of dead on the board applies but not in correspondence to the morning line but in accordance to the fact most of Pletchers firsters are bet heavy. I think you just trust your own handicapping and follow whatever methods you use for maidens and dont worry about the odds. I cant remember the horses name but he ( meaning Pletcher ) had a very impressive 2 yr old win this past Fall meet at Keenland and paid a very decent mutal maybe was like 6-1 or higher. I understand what you are saying when you say dead on the board but your correlation is to the fact that Pletchers babies get bet not that the morning line says 3/1 or 5/2.

onecalicocat said...

Heckuva race by oddly named HombrestoMens in Calder ist race Sunday. I like him next time if he stays in Maiden Claiming ranks.

Anonymous said...

I once asked Crist how the DRF could justify having separate variants for sprints and distance races. He gave me a bullshit answer.

This is my pet peeve. It makes no sense and is misleading. If a track has a 20 sprint variant and a 35 distance variant on a given day, guess which one is more accurate?

Anonymous said...

Regarding Variants I get your angst, in theory the track surface is fast or its not fast.

But one reason for the different variants in theory is the wind also plays a part in times. If the distance races are all two times, and the wind is into their faces for the start, the times will logically be slower that day for those into the wind distance races as opposed to the with the wind sprints.

Alan, perhaps they could put a +/- next to the odds if the final odds varied more than 5 points from ML?

Agree with Oxy on the specific example provided, if I see a Pletcher horse debut at more than 5-1 that screams dead on the board to me.

alan said...

Back in the early 80's, one of the challengers to the Form, I think it was Sports Eye, published the morning line and the odds with 3 minutes until post. So, someone, somewhere back then agreed with me! But the +/- idea seems like a good one. As for the Toddster's first timers, he's actually popped a few at decent odds over the last couple of years; but I'd bet a dollar to a (mini) donut (there's an outdated expression for you!) that none of them were as low as 3-1 in the morning line.

Anonymous said...

Re split variants - wind is the stock answer. While on a given day it could certainly be a factor, I think the real reason is that the horses keep getting cheaper.

A $10,000 horse now is not the same as a $10,000 horse x years ago (pick your own time frame). The further they run the more obvious the discrepancy becomes.

Previous Anonymous

Mike D. said...

Moves off the morning line--up or down--are very useful at NYRA tracks. The ML is generally solid. However the ML at some other tracks -- Fair Grounds definitely among them -- is often way, way off. So, adding ML info to running line PPs would help in some cases (New York) and mislead in others (Fair Grounds.)
PS: I would not be so quick to criticize Steven Crist. He is among the most influential shakers and movers who inarguably is on the side of horseplayers.