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Tuesday, December 25, 2007

Wednesday Morning Notes - Dec 26

- In the second at the Big A, the Pletcher entry of Spurrier and Mr. Shortcake are listed as the 5-2 favorite. The Toddster is five for 15 since racing switched to the inner track; and is 45-10-8-8 overall at the Big A. But this is one of those entries which could be grossly overbet; neither horse has been around two turns, and Mr. Shortcake has been a bit of a money burner while finishing in the money all five of his starts.

Buddy's Holiday was well bet in his debut, at six furlongs, and dropped far back while racing greenly on the inside. He gained some ground while zig-zagging through the stretch, and, according to Formulator's individual horse fractional splits, finished up with consecutive eighths of 11.4. The son of Harlan's Holiday tries two turns, and we saw the sire's Into Mischief pull that off successfully in the Cash Call on Saturday. Buddy's Holiday is out of a mare by Relaunch who is a half-sister to the Grade 1 winner Dispersal, winner of the Woodward, Louisiana Derby, and NYRA Mile. I'd like to see odds higher than his 3-1 morning line, but that could be the case should Pletcher's entry and McLaughlin's British Columbia get overbet.

In the 4th, Wild Garden is the 5-2 morning line choice off a second place in his debut for trainer Ben Perkins. I'm standing against him based on the possibility of that race being a "negative key race." The five horses who have come back to run not only haven't run well, they've all been awful, losing from margins ranging from 13 to 24 lengths. Instead, let's check the tote on a couple of first-timers with good works and from sharp barns capable with debut runners. More Than Thunder (More Than Ready) goes for Tom Albertrani; he's out of a mare by Thunder Gulch, and hails from the distaff family of the Derby winner Grindstone (the second dam of the latter is the third dam of More Than Thunder). Hatta Diamond debuts for McLaughlin; he's by Street Cry, out of a mare by Court Trial (In Reality) who's a half to the stallion full brothers Valid Expecations and Littleexpectations.

In the 8th, Gipsy Limits takes a drop in class for trainer Peter Kazamias. This sturdy mare has enjoyed a change in fortunes since being claimed by this barn, rolling through these allowance conditions over the summer, and winning a level above as well; she's eligible here via the optional $75,000 tag. Gipsy Limits has been chasing better in her last three, tangling with the ultra-sharp stakes horse Pure Disco in a Meadowlands stakes, and a couple of very tough high-class Philly allowance horses in Coli Bear and S W Aly'svalentine in her last two. Either of those two would likely be favored here I think, and if Gipsy Limits can get a jump on Circuit Breaker breaking to her outside, she may outrun her 12-1 morning line.


Anonymous said...

Agree on Buddy in the 2nd, First Time Lasix and good draw to boot. Hopefully breaks alertly for Coa, who sometimes has bad gate days.

I usually avoid runners making debut at 3 or older, so leaning toward backing the negative key race horse here in an effort to KISS.

Of the debut runners, More Than Thunder looks to have the best shot to score first time from a pedigree perspective, but wondering what Albertrani's record is with debut types not owned by Darley?

The other two appear turf meant.

Kicking around the idea of using She's My Sunshine and even Allori (1L) in exotics.

If Special Dream is ready in the 8th, and trainer stats indicate she probably is, she is a single but Gypsy Limits is a nice value play underneath.

In the 7th, believe Jovanna will rebound for unusually cold Dick Dutrow after tough trip in last, hoping for the 7-2 ML.

Good luck and hoping for some positive news on the franchise today. Now or never.

Anonymous said...


Did you see the tragic news on Dale Baird, the King of Mountaineer racing (over 9000 wins)

What a tragedy!