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Sunday, February 24, 2008

Instant Analysis

- Well, I ended up betting on the Fountain of Youth anyway. I happened to be home and I checked out the odds. Since I hated Monba as the favorite in the race, and also noticed that two maiden graduates were getting ample support as well, I made a price play on Nick Zito's horse. Unfortunately though, it was the one that I think I saw getting eased up at the finish (Anak Nakal) rather than the winning Cool Coal Man. So nice job by me there.

It wasn't a particularly pretty race - it was slow early, quick in the middle, and not all that fast at the end. [UPDATE: SEE CORRECTED TIMES] The leaders walked to the quarter in 25.78, but then picked up the pace to 23.49 and 23.92 in the middle, effectively bottoming out most of the rest of the field. Cool Coal Man was tracking the leaders, and moved to the lead, but Elysium Fields, one of those recent maiden graduates, held on stubbornly. The final three eighths went in 38.66 38.73, and the final time of 1:51.85 was over a second slower than a maiden race earlier in the card. Court Vision rallied OK for third. I'm thinking that we didn't see any Classic horses. [UPDATE: LEAVING IN THE LAST SENTENCE DESPITE THE CORRECTED TIMES]

11 Comments:

Brett said...

Elysium Fields showed some heart but a pretty lack-luster race in my mind. The next race might have had a derby horse in it too. War Pass looked solid!

Brett said...

And by the way, how big is a nice Beyer for you in the odds department. Kentucky Bear got something like a 95 BSF in his maiden and then goes off in his second start, a GI, and is 4-1. Wow! I think something like a $150K purchase at Keeneland. Man did the public love him. It is only his second start and he was not that bad but still 4-1!

Anonymous said...

Alan, nice analysis today in the 7th at Auq. Because of your analysis (I usually do not bet NY tracks) I bet $36.00 at Aq. today. In the 7th I had a $2.00 tri. 8/4-5/1-4-5-6-7. I also had a late pick 3 with the 8 singled in the 7th. The 1 singled in the 8th (when 1-2 odds horses loose is a good example Of Why I stear clear of NY. and all in the last one. At least the Tri. help me recover from the dreadful Fountain of youth. Just a quick thanks for your analysis of the 8 horse and your horse ran on hell of a race as well considering his break. Byanose

Valerie said...

Elysium Fields looked damn good for coming off breaking his maiden. I particularly liked him coming back on Cool Coal Man in the final steps. He's bred to run all day, plus he's flattered by Visionaire's recent performances. I don't think we've seen his best yet. And Court Vision did well enough for his first race since November...plus his dam is a half to AP Indy and a full-sister to Summer Squall. He'll do just fine the longer they go.

Kentucky Bear lost regular jock Elvis Trujillo to a fractured wrist yesterday so I'm thinking that might have affected his performance today. As for the 4-1 odds, blame all those Canadian snowbirds in Florida this time of year :)

Alan, congrats on Just Zip It's performance today!

McCarron said...

Alan,

Couldn't agree with you more....The only possible 3yo classic worthy runner one could construct any sort of case for coming out of that race is Court Vision; and that argument is hollow at best.

Anonymous said...

The chart of the race (both Equibase and DRF) says the teletimer malfunctioned. Hand-timed fractions and final time were:

23.56
46.93
1:10.80
1:37.00
1:49.53

BitPlayer

Glimmerglass said...

Not to be harsh but where are those folks who were big on "Anak Nakal"? That effort sucked big time - 8th in a race that was slooooow.

I can cut a horse slack if there is blistering pace up front and you just can't catch it or you get caught up in a chase. But to languish in the back when there is no speed? Yawn.

Looks like Zito is loaded for bear this year. I thought Bill Mott at the end of Spa had the largest fleet of would-be Derby starters but the needle is tipping to Nick.

Tagg I think will still be very happy with Elysium Fields regardless of it not being a win.

Anonymous said...

The DRF article, though, lists a final time of 1:50.17. Either way, at least the time's not embarrassing - and a final 1/8th in 12.53 isn't bad at all.

For reference, War Pass did his final quarter in 24.48 under no urging at all. Still the favorite.

ajkreider

Anonymous said...

How is it that Gulfstream can't get their goddamn times right? This is pathetic! I remember like 8 years ago when YAGLI won the GP Handicap and covered the last furlong in under 10 seconds, which obviously can't happen in an 11 furlong race and now this eight years later. Here's to consistent incompetence!

onecalicocat said...

Does this call into question Honey Ryder's turf race two years ago where she smashed Secretariat's unbelievable Belmont time?

Anonymous said...

Court Vision showed he is a legitamate contender.

And it looks like you will have some fun this summer with Zip;o)