Monday Morning Notes - Feb 4

- The Courier-Journal published some Derby Top 20 lists on Sunday. Top 20!? I have to admit, I got nuthin' as far as the Kentucky Derby goes as of now - no more than a Top Two right now to be honest. I dunno, this is my 4th Derby doing this blog, and maybe I'm not going to be that fanatical about it this year. Besides, what can I tell you that you can't get from wonkfests like the Downey Profile or Illman's blog?

The 4th 6th at Gulfstream on Monday is one of those three-year old entry level allowances that can get people excited. Zito and Mott both have recent maiden graduates that could gain some followers with an impressive performance at a mile and an eighth. But the favorite, Titan of Industry (5-2), while he lays over the field on class, is making his first start on dirt. Maybe it's the synthetic tracks and the fact that grass form seems to transfer readily to some of them, or maybe it's because of horses like Barbaro or Nobiz Like Shobiz that raced with some success on both surfaces, but I seem to be noticing more horses attempting the surface switch of late. But horses getting well-bet on dirt off of grass form, or vice-versa, remains one of my favorite bet-against angles. So, since I had quite a good Sunday of handicapping and hockey (if nothing else), let's try to beat this one.

Mambo Meister (8-1) returns to two turns after getting cooked on the front end in quick fractions while going the one-turn mile in his first race against winners. Prior was an easy wire-to-wire win around two turns at Calder; and that race has produced four subsequent winners. His speed nemesis in his last race, Atwell, is entered here too. But this time Mambo Meister draws inside of him, and Atwell tries two turns on dirt for the first time. No early speed whatsoever inside of these two, so he could be in front as far as he goes stretching beyond a mile for the first time.

Aquarian (7-2) was absolutely buried down on the rail in the stretch of his last, and closed with determination to graduate for Zito after angling out late. A similar rally here will very likely get him on some of those Top 20 lists next week. Well-bred expensive ($685,000) weanling purchase is by Fusaichi Pegasus, out of an unraced AP Indy half-sister to Zito's Derby winner Go For Gin, as well as to Pleasant Tap.