Big Problem

- Big Brown isn't the only horse who got screwed in the Florida Derby post position draw. It's almost like a handicap race at the trotters, where the top horses are placed in the outside posts. Face the Cat (11), Majestic Warrior (10), Hey Byrn (9), and even Elysium Fields (8) all face daunting tasks. Tomcito fared well with number four, and Fierce Wind continued his string of fortuitous post draws by getting the rail. With the latter's perfect record around two turns and with that post, I think he's gotta be prominent on my tickets come Saturday.

I don't know that I would have made Big Brown the morning line favorite from that post; but the oddsmaker is surely considering the hype in addition to the substance. Richard Dutrow was undaunted, and showed no inclination that he would scratch, brashly telling Jay Privman: "We get to play the intimidator from out there, instead of being intimidated. We are ready, babe." [DRF]

Big Brown worked a bullet (of 42) five furlongs in 59 1/5 at Palm Meadows on Tuesday, his second best-of-day drill since his dominating allowance win on the dirt at Gulfstream on March 5 in which he earned a 103 Beyer going a one-turn mile...despite being geared down by Kent Desormeaux. But let's play some devil's advocate if you don't mind.

He ran fast early tracking the pace in that Gulfstream effort, but then slowed down to a second half of 50 1/5. Of course, Desormeaux had him under wraps toward the end. However, the fact that he came home so slowly yet extended to a 12 3/4 length win may say something about the quality of the mere four rivals he defeated that day. Big Brown had a good trip, stalking behind a couple of colts how were each trying winners for the first time - Hedgefund Investor and Crimson Comic, the latter a particularly overbet entry coming off a layoff and stretching out for Pletcher. Those two finished in the last two spots; second place finisher, the 45-1 Heaven's Awesome, had lost his last two by some 48 combined lengths; show horse Deputiformer was a restricted stakes winner at Woodbine last year, but was making his first start since November and had slower Beyers than the others.

So I think it's fair to say that Big Brown beat a field of undetermined quality, and that he'll be facing far, far better in the Florida Derby. And despite what Dutrow says, the post position can't possibly help. I think he's a logical bet-against if things get carried away on the tote, which you might see considering how awesome those two races look on paper.

Big Brown is another Derby contender this year with a somewhat modest pedigree. He's by Boundary, the Danzig sire who stood for $10,000 before being pensioned due to declining fertility; that at the young age of 15 in 2005. He's out of a mare by Nureyev, and there's not much at all to say in terms of relatives on his distaff side. However, he does have some very interesting inbreeding; he's 3x3 to Northern Dancer (his great-grandfather on both his paternal and maternal sides), Damascus 3x4 and Round Table 4x5. Little wonder that this colt likes the grass, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he eventually makes his name on that surface (or synthetics).