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Monday, March 10, 2008

Notes - March 10

- I really wanted to write more about Pyro today before the unexpected developments here in NY took precedence. Honestly, I can't believe that he hasn't yet resigned as of this writing.

Anyway, now, like Michael, I've fallen ill. I've popped two Nyquil and I'm waiting to pass out. If I trail off in the middle of this post, you'll know why. Good thing this didn't happen yesterday.

So, I'll instead refer you to the discussion going on over at Cristblog as to whether Pyro's middling Beyers (he earned a 95 for the Louisiana Derby) make him a potential Derby underlay. The proprietor notes the comparative fractions of the Risen Star and Saturday's race:

Risen Star 25.46...50.50...1:16.13...1:44.68
Lou. Derby 24.78...48.86...1:14.07...1:44.44

Note the difference in his come-home time. When he was able to lope the first six furlongs in the Risen Star in 1:16, he flew home in 28.55 for the final 5/16ths, whereas a first six furlongs of 1:14 Saturday resulted in a slower final 5/16ths of 30.37.
My take is this: I think that his 90 Beyer in the Risen Star is a total throwout, just as the 93 earned by Street Sense in last year's Blue Grass turned out to be. The paces were so slow in those races that the winners would have had to fly home in impossible fractions in order to have earned a triple digit Beyer. While his Beyer on Saturday could have been higher, and was indeed less than that earned by Proud Spell (99), Shaun Bridgmohan did have to wait for running room, and one could argue that he would have run a faster final time had he had a clear trip. And besides, I look at it as an educational experience for the horse; staying closer to the pace, and overcoming traffic, two things which will serve him well in the Derby, and which, when it comes down to the chaos of the 20 horse Derby field, may prove to be at least as important as his speed figures. So I'm certainly not downgrading his chances based strictly on the Beyers, as important as I think they are.

8 Comments:

Valerie said...

Did you see that your old Highland Cat won the 9th at Gulfstream on Monday, paying $26.00?

Michael said...

Feel better -- it only took me a few days to get over the funk.

Glimmerglass said...

As an aside, no one seems to be giving "My Pal Charlie" much credit for a solid 2nd in the LA Derby behind Pyro.

Had J Be K (in his rabbit like mode) not pushed Charlie up the back stretch he *might have* had enough left in the tank to hold off Pyro.

With $120k in graded money he is ahead of a lot of other much bigger names who now have to look at the Blue Grass, Florida Derby, Illinois or Santa Anita for money salvation.

ballyfager said...

Forget the hundredths of a second crap it's a waste of time. He came home in the LA. Derby in thirty & two - that's very good. Of course the pace was still slow although much less so than the previous race.

Forget Beyer numbers, they're just opinion. The teletimer gives you facts.

Superfecta said...

How long do you think it is until we see NY-breds with names like 'Five Diamonds' or 'Mayflower Hotel' running at Aqueduct?

Late Scratch said...

Someone already has Client Number Nine - wow, that was fast!!

Feel better Alan. I know getting married a second time sure put me out of sorts for a while.

Superfecta said...

Late Scratch -- that is awesome.

Steve D said...

Valerie, that's probably not what Alan needed to hear during his time of need (the sickness, not the marriage).

Feel better, Alan.