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Monday, October 20, 2008

Dirt on the Dirt Mile

[This post is also up on the TBA blog at Bloodhorse.com]

- I figure that at this point, it's time to just concentrate on the races. We've discussed the many questions surrounding this year's Breeders' Cup to death. Yes, it's the first synthetic Breeders' Cup, but, as I've noted on before, it's certainly not the first one tinged with doubts that cut to the very legitimacy of its status as World Championship races. And though, in my opinion, the Breeders' Cup can't possibly be bashed enough over the pointless renaming of the Distaff and, especially, the absurd scheduling of championship races on a day and time when only the truly committed will even make an attempt to watch, I suppose it’s time to move on and do some gambling.

Lost in all of this however is the exacerbation of what I've always considered to be the biggest drawback of the whole concept of the Breeders' Cup - the fact that there's too much on one day for the mainstream press, and thus, the general public to digest. Other than the Classic and perhaps another race or two of particular import, the culmination of an entire year's worth of divisional races are inevitably reduced to a footnote at the bottom of a newspaper or web page. This year, we're up to nine races on Saturday; and add to that numerical dilution the fact that four of Saturday’s races are relatively minor events that should not be grouped with the main events.

14 races in all, and I gotta tell ya, it's too much for me too. Consider how long one can obsess over a single race - say, the Kentucky Derby - and that many Breeders' Cup races have significantly more angles and nuance to ponder. Perhaps if I was doing this full-time as a paid gig, I’d have the time, but….

So, I'm going to try to keep it as simple as possible. For one thing, when I printed out the past performances for Saturday's card, I started with Race 3. I don't particularly care for mile and a half marathons or turf sprints under any circumstances. Seriously man, drop me a note next week and let me know who won these two totally superfluous and unnecessary additions to the menu. Secondly, I intend to concentrate on the races which I can actually handicap with the usual basics of class, pace, and speed (and perhaps even tote), rather than to guess (other than to the extent we all will be regarding the Pro-Ride surface) about horses stretching out for the first time, going grass to "dirt” (or vice-versa), or Racing Post Ratings and the bereft European past performance lines that accompany them. So, to start at least for now, I'm also putting aside all four juvenile races as well as the Mile and the Turf. Come race day, the tote board will be my guide to finding value in those. But, as far as serious handicapping goes, I'm now down to a more manageable six, and there's potentially plenty to be made (or lost) in those. Of course, to each his/her own, but this is how I’m approaching the event.

The Dirt Mile may be the most eminently handicapable race on the program, so let's start there, and take a look at those that I consider to be the contenders. With Colonel John poised to represent WinStar and trainer Eoin Harty in the Classic, Well Armed is set for what serves for many horses as the Classic-for-the-Distance-Challenged event. Having lost by a mere neck to Go Between in the mile and a quarter Pacific Classic, we can't say that about this gelded five-year old son of Tiznow; but this two-turn mile event should suit him fine as well. He's refined his game of late, showing the ability to rate in his last two efforts, and comes off a workmanlike, though not dominant, win in the Goodwood. He has the speed figs, the tactical diversity, and the experience over the track to be the clear horse to beat. (And he worked a half in 46 1/5 on Monday.)

Lewis Michael has raced only twice this year due to an ankle problem, but seems to be coming up to the Dirt Mile in fine fettle for trainer Wayne (38%) Catalano. This son of Rahy seemed to really blossom at age four last year, at least until he ran into the Monmouth muck and mire which we definitely won't be seeing this year. He's shown the ability to handle various surfaces and distances. He stretches to two turns off his perfect-trip win in the seven furlong Pat O'Brien, a pattern which resulted in his dominant Washington Park Handicap win last year. You can watch his most recent workout here - seven furlong in 1:25.60 at Keeneland. Definitely a contender, though I am concerned about his light schedule, and believe he may be overbet.

Albertus Maximus is one of several California-based horses on the Breeders' Cup program that we've seen undergo a dramatic uptick in form after a change of barns - he switched to trainer Vladimir Cerin from Gary Mandella over the summer, and has put in two excellent efforts since. Most recent was a third, beaten less than two lengths, to Well Armed in the Goodwood, a race in which he conceded a good three paths to the winner turning for home. Other than Tiago, this four-year old son of Albert the Great closed fastest of all despite the lost ground, earned a career high Beyer, and looks like a live one at what could be a square price.

Slew's Tizzy is another one who has turned things around for a new barn; Doug O’Neill took over training duties over the winter, and the four-year old son of Tiznow responded with a sharp second in an excellent allowance race which also featured next out stakes winner Giant Gizmo, the consistent graded stakes runner Tropic Storm, and graded stakes winning Warning Zone. After seven months off, he returned with a front-running allowance win, at a mile, over the Pro-Ride last month. He set a slow pace that day, and is unlikely to be afforded that luxury here; and it concerns me that the Turf Sprint was his first choice. But his recent sharp form is worth mentioning. Full brother Slew’s Tiznow is also slated to start. O’Neill took over this one from Patrick Biancone, and gee, isn’t Biancone about to once again grace the game with his presence? Jeez, we get rid of steroids, and now pick up thisssssssss.

Two Step Salsa returns to synthetic land after an unsuccessful journey out east, and could find himself in front with a good post draw. He has superior Moss Pace numbers even to Well Armed when that one was running on the lead. However, he could find himself being hounded by My Pal Charlie, who is a bit interesting coming off his Super Derby win. Three-year old son of Indian Charlie earned a career best Beyer that day, but benefited from a perfect inside trip (despite having to wait momentarily for room), and he’s never been on synthetics. But he does have some of the best pace numbers in the field, and could also be a factor early should he handle the surface.

In conclusion (and I’ll revisit the race after the post draw): Albertus Maximus is on the improve and has an excellent race over the track. Well Armed has speed, stamina, and consistency, and looms strictly the one to beat. Slew’s Tizzy has improved dramatically and has won at the distance over the track. Lewis Michael could blow these away in the stretch if he runs back to peak form from last year.

10 Comments:

El Angelo said...

I haven't looked at this race yet, but I wholly agree with the part about skipping the Turf Sprint and Marathon altogether. This is the part that the BC Braintrust didn't quite get---not all of us are degenerate gamblers who will pluck down $$ on whatever they put on Saturday and will just bet more on Friday. I enjoy playing the best races, and would play Saturday twice as heavily if the 3 girls' races were being run. I'm divinely curious to see how much (or little) play the first 2-3 races get.

Anonymous said...

The marathon is really what thoroughbreds were "bred" for. It will be a beutiful tactical race. As for the turf sprint -- always a fun race a SA. I do not understand your thinking. Finally, the fact that the Championship is on Pro-ride does not make it any less of a Championship, ie a superbowl on artificial turf--although I will argue the Pro-ride is closer and BETTER as opposed to artificial turf. Now when you guys start advocating artificial turf instead of grass you can count me out.

McCarron said...

The Pro-Ride Plodders Sled Marathon is a complete pass. I like the Turf Sprint on the 6.5F downhill course with a legitimate chance for a big price, especially if some legit speed draws an outside post.....The biggest issue I have with the entire 14 race card, aside from the pure girth, is why on earth the Filly and Mare Sprint is at 7F while the Sprint is 6F. Can anyone tell me why this is the case?

alan said...

>>The marathon is really what thoroughbreds were "bred" for.

Not these days, not in this country in my opinion.

>>The biggest issue I have with the entire 14 race card, aside from the pure girth, is why on earth the Filly and Mare Sprint is at 7F while the Sprint is 6F. Can anyone tell me why this is the case?

Ah yes, I was just asking that question today myself. One knowledgeable gentleman guessed that it was simply to have a seven furlong race in the mix. I was thinking that the powers at be are concerned about injuries in the more intense six furlong race. I do recall once some discussion of changing the Sprint to seven furlongs following a stretch during which there were a couple of breakdowns......not sure if I'm recalling this correctly..

El Angelo said...

The turf sprint can be fun at Santa Anita. That doesn't mean it's worth spending a minute on handicapping. And the Marathon might be tactically interesting. That also doesn't mean it's worth handicapping.

A key element of wagering and handicapping in horse racing, IMO, is that a race is decipherable and has some amount of logic to its running and results. Neither of these contests will have any. I'd rather save the money I would have bet on these affairs and instead bet double on the Classique.

Anonymous said...

you guys will bet ny showcase day but not the bc marathon or sprint. Get over yourselves. And STOP complaining about a name of a horse race - you "sound" INSANE! Finally, we live in a new world where day of week/time of day is irrelevant. WAKE UP, it's 2008

alan said...

>>Finally, we live in a new world where day of week/time of day is irrelevant.

Oh, OK, I guess everyone can tell that to their bosses on Friday. Thanks for letting us know.

El Angelo said...

Who the hell said I would be NY Showcase day? Everyone has their own wagering strategy, mine is to wait for good stakes races with good competition and betting opportunities. The Turf Sprint and Marathon offer none of that.

And yes, if my firm will give me off Friday afternoon to play the races, I will be ecstatic. I'm not exactly counting on it. It's tough when you have a job.

Anonymous said...

Calling a mile and a half race "The Marathon" is an insult to the breed. Should be 2 miles, or more. The Jockey Club Gold Cup used to be run at 2 miles on the dirt before the speed freaks took over the breeding sheds. So, shorter distances on synthetic surfaces to accomodate the genetically inferior breed. How do we get out of this box? /S/greenmtnpunter

McCarron said...

The BC could do itself a favor by moving from FRI-SAT to SAT-SUN (Juv Turfs, F&M Sprint, Turf Sprint, Plodders Marathon, and Dirt Mile ought to be relegated to SUN). Perhaps they fear competition from the NFL. However, the bigger issue is obviously work, for those still gainfully employed in this stellar economy. As a huge fan of the game, I take the Oaks + the Friday before the BC, which is now the first day of the BC, off. In a perfect world, I'd take Thursday as well--imagine that conversation with the boss. Not happening.

It's easy to wager via the internet (or internets as G-Dubs like to call "them"), and watch your favorite NFL team with the 45 minutes of downtime between each race.

Insofar as the banter over the Marathon is concerned, the beauty of the BC and handicapping as a whole is the prudent punter is able to pick and choose their spots from a huge menu of daily races. Each person has specific strengths and weaknesses and should only place wagers with strong opinions. I have very little opinion of the Marathon and will preserve capital for a more compelling race, but to each their own.

Good luck and good racing