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Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Pick Six Puzzle

- Can you believe the very first race in the million dollar-carryover Pick Six sequence at Belmont on Wednesday? The 4th is a maiden special on the grass with 12 entries, including a well-bred first-timer from Mott, he of the 13 month 0 for 44 streak with first-timers on the NYRA circuit. Cross the Divide (5-1) is by Gone West, out of a Strawberry Road mare who's a half-sister to French group winner Ganges; and Cross the Divide is a half to graded grass winner Much Obliged.

But nope, I'm not going there, nor to the 5th, a high-tag maiden claimer on the grass at six furlongs, with another full field and several first-timers. While at least you'll have the tote to be your guide in the 4th, the daily double pools are the closest clue you'll get in the fifth.

So if you get past those, here's a few thoughts - for your careful consideration only please! - on the next three. In the sixth, Contessa has an entry rated at 4-1. Tempest Storm would seem like the stronger half based on her field high 86 Beyer earned in her only start on grass. However, with Tempest Storm perhaps facing an early tempest from Classic Love, I'm equally interested in Wonderwho'sbest, fresh off the claim. One of two entries to have won three races (and eligible because she's a three-year old), she attracts Castellano. The last and only time the jockey rode this daughter of Three Wonders, it resulted in her career best race, an 82 Beyer win at the Big A last fall. So, interesting that he jumps back aboard in the filly's first effort for this barn. Smartgabrielle (3-1) jumps in class off a perfect-trip win against a middling field in her first race in ten months. Levine is a bit below par here at 15%, though he's on a modest streak of 10-3-2-1. I'd be inclined to stand against her betting the race by itself, but would hesitate to leave her out if I was playing a pick six.

In the 7th, Leadwithyourchin (7-2) drops to a 20K tag for Mike Hushion. In his last effort, in 35K company, he truly did undergo the 4 wide journey noted in the comment line....and he did perfectly fine to finish 5th, just 4 lenghts back in a decent field. This seems to me like an honest drop, just seeking the horse's level. Whatsmore, Hushion goes to Channing Hill, who wins at 22% for the barn as opposed to 11% overall. Hill rode this horse last year, and was on board for his career high Beyer of 94. T Harry is the 2-1 favorite for Anthony Dutrow taking a huge drop from a second level allowance. This horse won a restricted 35K claimer and a starter allowance easily in the spring, added an entry level allowance at Delaware, and ran competitively in that last race, at Monmouth. This seems like a far more suspicious drop to me, and that's how I would play this race....though again, if I was playing the pick six, don't know if I'd have the nerve to leave him out. Hawkinsville (4-1) is 0-3 on the grass, but goes dirt to turf in his second race off the claim for trainer Bruce Brown. That pattern has produced winners King Mobay ($26) and Flibberjibit ($7.80) for the barn at this meet.

In the 8th, John's Jean (10-1) shortens up to seven furlongs on the grass for trainer Gary Sciacca, a bit live here at Belmont in October at 16-3-3-3. She flashed good speed for six furlongs before tiring to 4th at a mile. Could face some early pressure here from Doree Daze (3-1), but she showed some rating ability under Maragh when graduating in the spring. I guess that, in the past, I'd be more concerned that she's had two months off since that, her first race in 2 1/2. Two recent works indicate that she's ready, and Sciacca moves her up in class confidently. Maybe too confidently? Perhaps....but the aforemention Doree Daze faces winners for the first time, Mesa Girl (7-2) has been getting pieces but is 0-12 this year, and Who Is Lady (7-2) earned her field best Beyer of 80 when allowed to set a snail's pace two races back, and has a bad post. You pick six players will have to figure out what to do about those!

And then, you get to the 9th, an impossible state-bred 35K maiden claimer with 12 horses and several first-time starters. I think you'll have an easier time with the Turf Sprint than this one. I don't think the three races described above are that deep, and you'll have to be as selective as possible in order to be able to cover that last race, and perhaps the first two as well. Good luck, let us know if you hit it!

4 Comments:

Anonymous said...

Usually on these big carryover days I suggest a small ticket with all the favorites to my freinds to try and hit the overlaid chalk p6.

Today, I think you are better off playing your favorite numbers or Quick Pick, treat it like the lottery, gotta be in it to win it.

Do not see a potential single on the card.

jk said...

I wanted to play but did not have the time to dope out the card. If no one hits, I'm in for tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

hey thats a good idea. Take the advice Alan for now and use a quick pik method. Maybe you won't have to go to the ATM machine so often. You know alan you knowhow to talk up a big storm.but your piks are from hunger. They always were and alaways will be. Go ahead look at your own track record. It doesn't look that good does it. We need some hunch bets this week. Where are they i've been having waiting all week. Usually Monday and Tuesdays are your best as you like those dog track piks eh.

Anonymous said...

George Weaver??? Just looked up Desert Warrior on a sire site and it suggests that a Lord Carson mare might work.
RG